2018 off-season thread

[BrindamoursNose]

And before anyone freaks out and says it won’t fit, they could realistically take on Karlsson and Tavares for the next 7 years with a few easy moves next offseason.

I was literally going to post "If you do this deal though, you aren't getting Tavares for sure"

 

[duffy9748]

Great post. You are correct, there has to be at least some level of dialogue between Hextall and Karlsson's agent to suggest that Karlsson would have serious interest in re-signing with the team.

Also, you make a great point in this post. This is exactly why you build up a great pool of prospects/young players, and draft picks. It's not just about filling out a lineup full of prospects like Deadhead tells everyone every day. It's about having the assets so that if a true elite player like Karlsson who is in his prime is available you have the ammunition to be players in a trade to land him. People can say the team is two years away, or two years away from two years away etc etc. If the Flyers were to land Erik Karlsson they will instantly jump levels and be a legitimate playoff team as opposed to a fringe playoff team who can't win a single round.

While the Flyers look to have a pretty long upcoming window, the best teams they’ll ice in the next decade will be in 2019-2020, 2020-2021, and 21-22. After that you have to pay Couturier, Ghost the following year, and 28/93 will be into their mid 30s. There won’t be a better player than Karlsson available in that time frame.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

I seriously doubt Karlsson comes here.

So do I, but it's hard to argue we aren't an attractive location while simultaneously being able to A) Pay him what he wants and B) Trade assets OTT will want.

It's like being a 76ers fan waiting to see if LeBron signs with them -- it may not be happening, but it's hard to argue they aren't a great fit.

 

[Prongo]

That's wishful thinking, unless it's a sign and trade deal you have no guarantees, Flyers aren't the elite franchise they were a decade ago.
And Philadelphia isn't the number one destinations of someone looking to live on $50M after taxes.

No place besides Florida and a select few are destination for the highest tax brackets.

I also find it ironic you saying the Flyers trading for Karlsson and signing him is wishful thinking. I can’t remember when we lost someone due to contract demands. If they want him, they will sign him.

 

[duffy9748]

I was literally going to post "If you do this deal though, you aren't getting Tavares for sure"

I’ll admit, you’re putting all your eggs in the Carter Hart basket, but we kinda are already anyway. The good thing is though is that the team would be so stacked with high end talent, we wouldn’t need to trade 1st round picks for the next 3-4 years so they could restock the system.

 

[bobbythebrain]

I seriously doubt Karlsson comes here.

Probably not. Yzerman could probably trade half their current roster and still have a great team

 

[The Madrigal]

While the Flyers look to have a pretty long upcoming window, the best teams they’ll ice in the next decade will be in 2019-2020, 2020-2021, and 21-22. After that you have to pay Couturier, Ghost the following year, and 28/93 will be into their mid 30s. There won’t be a better player than Karlsson available in that time frame.

EXACTLY. You get it bro. Not sure why so many others don't. This is a tremendous opportunity for the Flyers franchise to be relevant again and the team to be players in the east again. Hextall has to at least make a legitimate attempt to get Karlsson. I doubt he will even do anything more than kick the tires, and I seriously doubt he gets him but they are set up so well to make this move.

 

[bobbythebrain]

EXACTLY. You get it bro. Not sure why so many others don't. This is a tremendous opportunity for the Flyers franchise to be relevant again and the team to be players in the east again. Hextall has to at least make a legitimate attempt to get Karlsson. I doubt he will even do anything more than kick the tires, and I seriously doubt he gets him but they are set up so well to make this move.

When you get tunnel vision you end up with trades like Hall and Drouin

You still have to operate within the parameters of your rebuild plan or you end up like Edm who is just plain scrambling, despite having an insane amount of talent

I know you hate Hextall but no doubt in my mind Edm would be a contender right now had he started there when Chia did

 

[duffy9748]

When you get tunnel vision you end up with trades like Hall and Drouin

You still have to operate within the parameters of your rebuild plan or you end up like Edm who is just plain scrambling, despite having an insane amount of talent

I know you hate Hextall but no doubt in my mind Edm would be a contender right now had he started there when Chia did

How is swapping Karlsson for one of our young D, outside of Provorov, deviating from the plan of contending for 5-7 years? They aren’t moving every prospect they have. They’d still have one of the best prospect pools in the league once this upcoming draft is over.

 

[bobbythebrain]

How is swapping Karlsson for one of our young D, outside of Provorov, deviating from the plan of contending for 5-7 years? They aren’t moving every prospect they have. They’d still have one of the best prospect pools in the league once this upcoming draft is over.

10mil+ for a dman. I'm sure that changes things significantly, and Hextall has his cap guidlined for the future

When Chicago won their cups they sacrificed longterm contracts to do so. I'm sure Bowman was thinking his cap 2 years in advance

 

[duffy9748]

Say it was Sanheim+14+2019 1st+Rubstov.

Giroux-Couturier-Konecny
Lindblom-Patrick-Voracek
X-Frost-X
Raffl-Laughton-X

Provorov-EK
Ghost-Myers
Hagg-Gudas

Simmonds/Trade, Vorobyev, NAK, Allison, Ratcliffe, 19th pick, UFA’s/Trade. That team would still have plenty of cap space entering 2019-2020.

 

[duffy9748]

10mil+ for a dman. I'm sure that changes things significantly, and Hextall has his cap guidlined for the future

When Chicago won their cups they sacrificed longterm contracts to do so. I'm sure Bowman was thinking his cap 2 years in advance

It doesn’t change much. There is a ton of cap space to play with. Yes that’s factoring in the 9/11/19 extensions.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

10mil+ for a dman. I'm sure that changes things significantly, and Hextall has his cap guidlined for the future

When Chicago won their cups they sacrificed longterm contracts to do so. I'm sure Bowman was thinking his cap 2 years in advance

Actually, Blackhawks are an interesting team to compare to. I remember them acquiring Brian Campbell on a huge deal and was stunned since they didn't need him with Seabrook and Keith...this is very Blackhawk-ish if we were to get EK, I think.

That's just my memory of it, though. Could be missing details.

 

[The Madrigal]

How is swapping Karlsson for one of our young D, outside of Provorov, deviating from the plan of contending for 5-7 years? They aren’t moving every prospect they have. They’d still have one of the best prospect pools in the league once this upcoming draft is over.

It's not. Don't waste your time though dude. Some people just don't get it or for some strange reason are perfectly content with the Flyers not becoming a great franchise and Stanley cup contender again.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

And before anyone freaks out and says it won’t fit, they could realistically take on Karlsson and Tavares for the next 7 years with a few easy moves next offseason.

I've done the math. If we assume:

• As many ELCs as possible and somehow losing none of them in a Karlsson trade
• A generous cap of 85 MM
• Karlsson for 7/70
• Provorov for 6/39
• Hagg for 2/4

You have a little over 20 MM in space and have to sign Tavares, Konecny, Sanheim, Laughton, and have zero Goalies under contract, then have to give out raises to Patrick, Myers, and Lindblom the following year (partially offset by AMac and likely Gudas). This is assuming Simmonds and Raffl walk. There's no chance in hell you can afford either.

 

[NicolasAubeKubel]

For what though? Thats the scary part!

Hakstol straight up

 

[bobbythebrain]

It doesn’t change much. There is a ton of cap space to play with. Yes that’s factoring in the 9/11/19 extensions.

respectfully, but Hextall has repeatedly said and shown his longterm plan. And thus far he has set us up nicely, so his plan is working

What you seem to be saying about our current cap is probably far from what Hextall has planned, adding a 10mil dman

Again, I think that alters his plan significantly, like what will happen to G and Vora, or the returns on them

You have to factor in those 2 also

 

[duffy9748]

I've done the math. If we assume:

• As many ELCs as possible and somehow losing none of them in a Karlsson trade
• A generous cap of 85 MM
• Karlsson for 7/70
• Provorov for 6/39
• Hagg for 2/4

You have a little over 20 MM in space and have to sign Tavares, Konecny, Sanheim, Laughton, and have zero Goalies under contract, then have to give out raises to Patrick and Myers the following year. This is assuming Simmonds and Raffl walk. There's no chance in hell you can afford either.

In my scenario, It’ll be easier in a year, I’m dumping MacDonald, Weise, and Gudas.

 

[SnS]

We’d be very light and lacking depth presumably if we get JT and EK. With not a guarantee at goalie either.

 

[duffy9748]

respectfully, but Hextall has repeatedly said and shown his longterm plan. And thus far he has set us up nicely, so his plan is working

What you seem to be saying about our current cap is probably far from what Hextall has planned, adding a 10mil dman

Again, I think that alters his plan significantly, like what will happen to G and Vora, or the returns on them

You have to factor in those 2 also

I don’t think anything will happen to 28/93. They’re here to stay. Also Hextall has never said he’s unwilling to make big trades. He’s said numerous times since he’s taken over that there is a time and place for those trades. He helped do that in LA.

 

[bobbythebrain]

Actually, Blackhawks are an interesting team to compare to. I remember them acquiring Brian Campbell on a huge deal and was stunned since they didn't need him with Seabrook and Keith...this is very Blackhawk-ish if we were to get EK, I think.

That's just my memory of it, though. Could be missing details.

They also signed Keith, Toews and Kane to sweet deals, while we have already committed a good chunk of $ to G and V

 

[duffy9748]

We’d be very light and lacking depth presumably if we get JT and EK. With not guarantee at goalie either.

Lacking depth? I agree it hinges on Hart, but it really already does anyway.

 

[NicolasAubeKubel]

We’d be very light and lacking depth presumably if we get JT and EK. With not a guarantee at goalie either.

I’d rather just keep assets and sign Tavares. No downside

 

[Rebels57]

We’d be very light and lacking depth presumably if we get JT and EK. With not a guarantee at goalie either.

Not sure how'd they be lacking depth?

Tavares is free and Karlsson would cost futures.

The goalie situation is f***ed though for now.

 

[SnS]

Lacking depth? I agree it hinges on Hart, but it really already does anyway.

Yes. Lacking depth. We would be top heavy on forward, we don’t know what strides Frost or any other prospects will be taking.

We made the playoffs with four goalies this past year. Just take a chill and relax.

I’m not moving 4 pieces for EK. I don’t think we are one piece away.

I’m not giving a 10+mil a year deal to JT long term. I’m fine with a short term deal overpaying slightly.

But as long as we are trotting out Hagg/neutered gudas/ farmer. It’s not an optimistic situation.


Just stay the course. I think next year is when we can potentially see a big trade go down for us trading the multiple pieces for the budding star.