Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Final Countdown! Tomorrow is the big day!

[MyBudJT]

No more Vladislav Kara types though, I get obscure, but christ lol.

I can't claim to have seen the games but the stat line at all levels are just so underwhelming

Vladislav Kara

Was definitely a head scratcher, I agree.

I didn't exactly have any other names in mind when we picked Kara, it was just an odd pick. We have made some head scratchers historically though. Jamie Devane in the 3rd round *Face palm*

Kara is a fine draft pick. and could be a diamond in the rough... He's kind of a weird pick to nit-pick on... I mean, you could look a Bobylov, or Walker, or Desrochers as waisted picks... but you choose to complain about Kara??...

Don't even look at his KHL stats as he averaged ~ 3:26 TOI / GP.
Kara was 4th in U20 P and P/GP(>20GP) in the VHL.

In all honesty, Kara doesn't seem to be that far behind Chebykin and is a year younger. I really don't mind picking Karas/Chebykins/etc in the 4th+ rounds. I hope our late round selection of Russians/Swedes continue . Last little point, there really isn't THAT much differences between a 124th OA selection and 200th OA selection... so not sure why you're hatin on Kara so much...

 

[MyBudJT]

Some guys to keep an eye on in the mid-late rounds:

C - Matthias Emilio-Pettersen
C - Alexander Khovanov
RW - Yegor Sokolov
C - Dmitry Zavgorodny
C - Philipp Kurashev
RD - Vladislav Yeryomenko
C/LW - Justin Almedia
LD - Nicolas Beaudin
LD - Xavier Bouchard
C - Aidan Dudas
C - Cameron Hillis

 

[4thline]

The Kara pick was pure projection based onmeteoric development and indefinite pro rights, akin to a Russian Marchment.

The guy was a nobody from a nothing town in Northern Russia (literally in the Arctic circle), left home at 16 and in three years went from Russian junior B (which he dominated) to the second highest pro league in the country and being on the national junior team and KHL radar. That's a ride worth a 4th to see how high in goes by the time he's ~24.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Some guys to keep an eye on in the mid-late rounds:

C - Matthias Emilio-Pettersen -4th
C - Alexander Khovanov - 5th/6th
RW - Yegor Sokolov - 4th/5th
C - Dmitry Zavgorodny - 4th/5th
C - Philipp Kurashev - 2nd/early 3rd
RD - Vladislav Yeryomenko - 5th-UDFA
C/LW - Justin Almedia - 3rd/4th
LD - Nicolas Beaudin - 2nd/3rd
LD - Xavier Bouchard - 4th
C - Aidan Dudas - 4th
C - Cameron Hillis - 2nd/3rd

 

[MyBudJT]

^ fairly accurate, but you're probably undervalueing Alexander Khovanov

 

[Kiwi]

Yeah, I wanted him too

I liked him more then Juolevi but apparently Juolevi is doing well overseas now.

I was shocked that we didn't take Mete, with his talent and Hunters ties to London I thought that he was a slam dunk Leafs pick

If we hadn't of won the lottery I wanted Sergachev or PLD, Juolevi was a bit bland for my liking

 

[WTFMAN99]

Kara is a fine draft pick. and could be a diamond in the rough... He's kind of a weird pick to nit-pick on... I mean, you could look a Bobylov, or Walker, or Desrochers as waisted picks... but you choose to complain about Kara??...

Don't even look at his KHL stats as he averaged ~ 3:26 TOI / GP.
Kara was 4th in U20 P and P/GP(>20GP) in the VHL.

In all honesty, Kara doesn't seem to be that far behind Chebykin and is a year younger. I really don't mind picking Karas/Chebykins/etc in the 4th+ rounds. I hope our late round selection of Russians/Swedes continue . Last little point, there really isn't THAT much differences between a 124th OA selection and 200th OA selection... so not sure why you're hatin on Kara so much...

The Kara pick was pure projection based onmeteoric development and indefinite pro rights, akin to a Russian Marchment.

The guy was a nobody from a nothing town in Northern Russia (literally in the Arctic circle), left home at 16 and in three years went from Russian junior B (which he dominated) to the second highest pro league in the country and being on the national junior team and KHL radar. That's a ride worth a 4th to see how high in goes by the time he's ~24.

Yeah I wouldn't look for much in less than 4 mins a game in the KHL. Chebykin was a 7th round pick which is fine, you're (kind of) taking a risk already in that they're Russian and may never come over. I wouldn't gamble on a guy in the 4th that isn't even ranked and statistically isn't a stand out from his peers.

I don't want to name other picks that don't work because then at some point it's just complaining all our picks didn't work which as we know is statistically not going to happen.

Just my 2 cents.

I was shocked that we didn't take Mete, with his talent and Hunters ties to London I thought that he was a slam dunk Leafs pick

If we hadn't of won the lottery I wanted Sergachev or PLD, Juolevi was a bit bland for my liking

I think Montreal took him literally the pick right before ours.

 

[Kiwi]

Yeah I wouldn't look for much in less than 4 mins a game in the KHL. Chebykin was a 7th round pick which is fine, you're (kind of) taking a risk already in that they're Russian and may never come over. I wouldn't gamble on a guy in the 4th that isn't even ranked and statistically isn't a stand out from his peers.

I don't want to name other picks that don't work because then at some point it's just complaining all our picks didn't work which as we know is statistically not going to happen.

Just my 2 cents.



I think Montreal took him literally the pick right before ours.

Mete went at #100 and we took Brooks at #92

I certainly didn't dislike the Brooks pick but I was surprised we didn't take Mete at #92, he seemed the more obvious pick at that stage with the OHL and London connection

 

[WTFMAN99]

Mete went at #100 and we took Brooks at #92

I certainly didn't dislike the Brooks pick but I was surprised we didn't take Mete at #92, he seemed the more obvious pick at that stage with the OHL and London connection

Yeah and then we took Middleton at 101

Brooks would have been more likely to be there at 101 then Mete but that is my opinion. Mete was supposed to go mid to late 3rd I think so he would have been great value in the 4th round. Only reason he fell is height. Skill, skating, IQ is all top notch.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Yea I'm ok with not taking all these weird picks in the 4th round +; go back to potential and skill like the 2015 draft please.

 

[Kiwi]

Yeah and then we took Middleton at 101

Brooks would have been more likely to be there at 101 then Mete but that is my opinion. Mete was supposed to go mid to late 3rd I think so he would have been great value in the 4th round. Only reason he fell is height. Skill, skating, IQ is all top notch.

I don't dislike Middleton but he wasn't great value in that slot even though his skating has improved exponentially from last season

Mete was a good pick from about #75 on imo, I like decent size generally but his overall package was really solid especially with how the league's been trending, anybody who had seen him was fairly high on him

 

[93LEAFS]

Yea I'm ok with not taking all these weird picks in the 4th round +; go back to potential and skill like the 2015 draft please.

To be honest, I don't think 2015 is going to produce another NHLer for us past Dermott. Bracco and Nielsen have a shot, but I'm not expecting either to pass the 200 game threshold. Nielsen skating just isn't good enough, and Bracco gives me vibes of another smalled skilled guy who we'll hear about tearing up the NLA in 4 years.

So, I think we should wait on 2016 and 2017 to see what they actually produce for us before writing off Hunter's approach. Either way, getting NHLers past the 3rd round is always a rarity and a challenge. Getting guys like Benn or Gaudreau are black swan events.

The main goal is you have to consistently hit above average in the 1st and 2nd (which Hunter appears to be doing), and pray you eventually hit on lottery tickets past that such as landing a Connor Brown, a Stralman, Johnsson, etc.

 

[BertCorbeau]

@93LEAFS - I looked at some of the better known drafting teams (like Nashville and Tampa) awhile back and saw that in the last several years they've really only hit on 1 or 2 players from round 4 on.. And that is just a player becoming an NHL regular, let alone a stud. So yeah they are definitely long shots.

I think you're trying to find 1 NHLer in those picks every 4/5 years, you're doing okay. Which is why the Leafs are actually looking fairly strong in that area recently (Brown and Johnsson are examples, with Engvall showing some promise) - none are studs but they look like they could be more than just a depth player that would be in and out of the line up.

Rounds 1 and 2 are key, and I'd even throw round 3 in there as well. The 3rd round is less likely but good drafting teams can find some good players in those rounds more often than not.

This year's 1st will be Hunter's toughest one to hit on since it's later in the round. I'll be very interest to see who they end up selecting.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

BPA could be Denisenko, if he’s still there after pick #20 it could be a huge win for the Leafs.

 

[93LEAFS]

@93LEAFS - I looked at some of the better known drafting teams (like Nashville and Tampa) awhile back and saw that in the last several years they've really only hit on 1 or 2 players from round 4 on.. And that is just a player becoming an NHL regular, let alone a stud. So yeah they are definitely long shots.

I think you're trying to find 1 NHLer in those picks every 4/5 years, you're doing okay. Which is why the Leafs are actually looking fairly strong in that area recently (Brown and Johnsson are examples, with Engvall showing some promise) - none are studs but they look like they could be more than just a depth player that would be in and out of the line up.

Rounds 1 and 2 are key, and I'd even throw round 3 in there as well. The 3rd round is less likely but good drafting teams can find some good players in those rounds more often than not.

This year's 1st will be Hunter's toughest one to hit on since it's later in the round. I'll be very interest to see who they end up selecting.

Yeah, the good drafting teams just continually hit and draft well in the 1st and 2nd, then eventually luck out later on. It is pretty rare that your draft board works out in a way that someone you think is likely to be a legitimate NHLer is available in the 4th.

Tampa's actually a weird drafting team. They've actually done a pretty bad job high-up in the draft since Hedman which is usually a death blow to a team, but have made up for it with Kucherov in the 2nd, Point in the 3rd, Palat in the 7th and Tyler Johnson as an undrafted UFA. But, Drouin was a decent pick but they got Sergachev for him (still would rather Jones), Connolly is a 4th liner, and Keokkoek is still a fringe NHLer. Plus, they lost value on DeAngelo drafting him at 19, then trading him for a 2nd 2 years later. Its almost the opposite of the Leafs under Burke, where we hit in the top 10 (Kadri and Rielly) but in general were a gongshow between 11th overall and the 5th round.

 

[Judas Tavares]

Yeah, the good drafting teams just continually hit and draft well in the 1st and 2nd, then eventually luck out later on. It is pretty rare that your draft board works out in a way that someone you think is likely to be a legitimate NHLer is available in the 4th.

Tampa's actually a weird drafting team. They've actually done a pretty bad job high-up in the draft since Hedman which is usually a death blow to a team, but have made up for it with Kucherov in the 2nd, Point in the 3rd, Palat in the 7th and Tyler Johnson as an undrafted UFA. But, Drouin was a decent pick but they got Sergachev for him (still would rather Jones), Connolly is a 4th liner, and Keokkoek is still a fringe NHLer. Plus, they lost value on DeAngelo drafting him at 19, then trading him for a 2nd 2 years later. Its almost the opposite of the Leafs under Burke, where we hit in the top 10 (Kadri and Rielly) but in general were a gongshow between 11th overall and the 5th round.

Tampa seems to be hitting on players in the CHL who have mostly everything you like, but have one flaw so they drop to the middle rounds. By correcting this one flaw, the player becomes quite useful. Do you go for that player with a lower ceiling and the one flaw, but a very high floor? Or do you go for the home run and/or the unknown? I really like the looks of all these guys like Point, Raddysh, Cirelli, Howden, Joseph, Katchouk, Stephens etc... Maybe no superstar in the bunch (though Point has been great), but they all look like they will make it in some capacity to support Tampa's superstars as cheap useful players.

While Tampa would obviously love another superstar, they don't necessarily need one with what they have. I see us in the same picture. We have our superstars, now insulate them. I'm not saying go full safe and draft Gauthiers. Still go for the home run here and there, especially in round 1. But round 2 and 3 in particular, don't get cute, go for the guy you know will be a player. Maybe they have one flaw and its why they aren't a first rounder. Go for them and work to correct that flaw, save the cuteness for round 6 and 7.

 

[DraftGuru]

Martin Kaut could be one of the safer picks early on. After a successful U20 tourny, followed up with a decent reg season in the top Mens Czech league and then upping his point totals in the playoffs. Had 2 assists today from the 4th line against Switzerland in International Exhibition.

 

[Kiwi]

Martin Kaut could be one of the safer picks early on. After a successful U20 tourny, followed up with a decent reg season in the top Mens Czech league and then upping his point totals in the playoffs. Had 2 assists today from the 4th line against Switzerland in International Exhibition.

Looks like Olofsson has been good in the playoffs as well in Sweden

He's been pretty solid playing in a mens league, I'm not sure on him though

 

[DraftGuru]

Im not totally sold on Olofsson. I think he is a tad behind Hallander and Lundestrom. Not by much though. All 3 could be available once the dust settles after the u18s.

 

[93LEAFS]

Tampa seems to be hitting on players in the CHL who have mostly everything you like, but have one flaw so they drop to the middle rounds. By correcting this one flaw, the player becomes quite useful. Do you go for that player with a lower ceiling and the one flaw, but a very high floor? Or do you go for the home run and/or the unknown? I really like the looks of all these guys like Point, Raddysh, Cirelli, Howden, Joseph, Katchouk, Stephens etc... Maybe no superstar in the bunch (though Point has been great), but they all look like they will make it in some capacity to support Tampa's superstars as cheap useful players.

While Tampa would obviously love another superstar, they don't necessarily need one with what they have. I see us in the same picture. We have our superstars, now insulate them. I'm not saying go full safe and draft Gauthiers. Still go for the home run here and there, especially in round 1. But round 2 and 3 in particular, don't get cute, go for the guy you know will be a player. Maybe they have one flaw and its why they aren't a first rounder. Go for them and work to correct that flaw, save the cuteness for round 6 and 7.

Tampa's weird though because, at the same time, they've missed on Keokkoek and Connolly in the CHL both in the top 5. I wouldn't call Drouin a miss, just not the perfect pick. I just find that they've been really spotty in the first round. On top of those 2, the DeAngelo pick was an absolute loss value wise. Although, they at least got some value before it completely cratered.

Their biggest hit by far is Kucherov in the 2nd and having no fear of a smaller Russian when the rest of the league was terrified.

I really liked Katchouk and wanted him at 31 in 2016. The kids a player and will be an NHLer. Will be a solid 3rd wheel on a top 9 line doing the gritty work.

I feel people here would actually be insanely frustrated by Tampa's drafting in the 1st round in the Yzerman regime. Luckily, he inherited a team that already hit on a 1st overall pick for a franchise center and a 2nd overall pick for a franchise defender. The Connolly and Koekkeok picks would be similar to Van taking Virtanen or us taking deciding to take Ritchie over Nylander and Ehlers. Koekkeok over Forsberg is also a sizable miss. I'm actually curious to see how their recent first-round picks like Foote and Howden turn out, but they are solid later in the draft. It's a strange dichotomy.

 

[DraftGuru]

ISS top 31 for April. They still haven't boarded the Kravtsov hype train but Martin Kaut is up to 17 in their rankings.
ISS Hockey Releases ISS Top 31 for April, Rankings of the Top Prospects for 2018 NHL Draft - ISS Hockey

 

[WTFMAN99]

ISS top 31 for April. They still haven't boarded the Kravtsov hype train but Martin Kaut is up to 17 in their rankings.
ISS Hockey Releases ISS Top 31 for April, Rankings of the Top Prospects for 2018 NHL Draft - ISS Hockey

Damn

 

[DopeyFish]

If Merkley falls to us, I'd be over the moon.

Though I guess it really depends on his combine interviews.

I'd have no problem drafting him 2nd overall based on talent alone. Just hope it's a willy type of dropper.

 

[Walshy7]

If Merkley falls to us, I'd be over the moon.

Though I guess it really depends on his combine interviews.

I'd have no problem drafting him 2nd overall based on talent alone. Just hope it's a willy type of dropper.

he seems to have an atrocious attitude, 93leafs is usually pretty good with this kind of stuff and he doesn't seem to want to go near him. It is just an insane risk to take. Willy's attitude problems were completely made up by lazy scouts. Merkleys issues are front and center right there for all to see. You cant just draft on talent, im fairly confident the leafs don't touch that kid

 

[93LEAFS]

he seems to have an atrocious attitude, 93leafs is usually pretty good with this kind of stuff and he doesn't seem to want to go near him. It is just an insane risk to take. Willy's attitude problems were completely made up by lazy scouts. Merkleys issues are front and center right there for all to see. You cant just draft on talent, im fairly confident the leafs don't touch that kid

Willy's issues weren't made up, as much as they were an extension of his dad moving him from team to team and micromanaging. Everyone got to see that first hand when Sauga catered to him by hiring him to be the assistant so they could get Alex. Sauga would have loved to have had Alex back, but not the expense of dealing with Michael for another year.

I really advise anyone who wants Merkley to go watch 5 full games of him. He has good gifs and box-score. I'm not a plus minus fan, but the guy is a -69 over 2 full years in the OHL, and its absolutely reflective of his play and effort defensively.