Speculation: 2018-2019 Trade Deadline

[RegularSznAllStars]

There is a clear path to sign Karlsson. It's not complicated.

Trade Cally and Miller. Sign Point and Karlsson. Should cost us 16-17m with minimal if any asset loss.

With Point and Karlsson under contract we would have 12 forwards and 5 defensemen signed.

Point and karlsson for 16 is optimistic to say the least. Karlsson for under 10 would shocking.

 

[Rschmitz]

Point and karlsson for 16 is optimistic to say the least. Karlsson for under 10 would shocking.

I figure Point 7-8 and Karlsson for 9-10. I don't think that's shocking at all

 

[CupsOverCash]

There is a clear path to sign Karlsson. It's not complicated.

Trade Cally and Miller. Sign Point and Karlsson. Should cost us 16-17m with minimal if any asset loss.

With Point and Karlsson under contract we would have 12 forwards and 5 defensemen signed.

I think where it gets complicated is the years after this one. When we have to pay both Vasi and Sergachev. Maybe throw Cernak in there as well.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

I think where it gets complicated is the years after this one. When we have to pay both Vasi and Sergachev. Maybe throw Cernak in there as well.

maybe? i got cernak already way more valuable then serge

 

[Rschmitz]

I think where it gets complicated is the years after this one. When we have to pay both Vasi and Sergachev. Maybe throw Cernak in there as well.

We will have another ~5 million in wiggle room with Carle coming off the books and the cap going up. Killorn also loses his full NTC and we will have Seattle to worry about.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Overly simplistic. How TB gets out from Callahan is important: buying him out would make the already challenging task of fitting Karlsson in even more difficult for the next two seasons; clearing him entirely from the books this summer may or not prove possible. Miller AND another high-dollar contract has to go to fit Karlsson for the long-haul, plus Point AND Karlsson both have to come in at very team-friendly numbers. Oh, and then you have to flesh out a handful of roster spots on the cheap.

This isn't the cakewalk some are making it out to be.

Counterpoint, we've got a ton of assets and not enough room for all of them, and you're going to have to do something with them sooner or later. Packaging a Raddysh/Masin/Ingram with Callahan for someone is a lot closer than you think.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

I'm trying to think of this in timeframe as well as dollars, but right now we have Hedman and McD locked up for a while. Thats fantastic, you have two anchors for your top two pairings eating a bulk of minutes for the forseeable future. We still need talented guys alongside them but can have a bit more wiggle room with bringing kids (Foote, Masin, Walker) into the lineup. Serg and Cernak will also be retained but how long/how much is the question, and that makes a pretty solid top four. You still want one more good top 3-5 defender which I really would like to see Stralman continue to be, as long as his play doesn't fall off a cliff. This gives you basically 2 slots to fill however you see fit - another kid in the minors, or a deadline vet to get some new blood into the lineup.

Outside of Foote, I really don't see anyone defensively that needs to be with the big club now which is a nice luxury. The forwards i'm a bit murky on because I really don't know where I see some of these guys going. Verhaeghe (sp?) looks like a guy that might be a solid bottom six winger and with his size that could be in the near future, also plays center and wing. The rest of the guys in Syracuse I just don't see being ready for at least another season.

 

[nhljohnson]

There is a clear path to sign Karlsson. It's not complicated.

Trade Cally and Miller. Sign Point and Karlsson. Should cost us 16-17m with minimal if any asset loss.

You continue to gloss over the possibility of less-than-optimal outcomes, especially when it comes to getting out from under Callahan’s and Miller’s contracts. Can BriseBois trade both without retaining or taking a contract back? Within the brief post-Cup, pre-July 1 (shortly after which the cap flexibility/internal budget for teams tends to be shot) window? Maybe, maybe not.

And even if succeeding in these efforts, where the cap ceiling actually gets set for next season is another potential wrinkle. Fitting under an $83m ceiling (the rosy early-season projection) is one thing, less wiggle room would make it that much harder.

 

[Rschmitz]

I'm glossing over it because it's virtually inconsequential. If the entire league formed a coalition against us, sure, we would have to buy Callahan out or retain. However if even a single rebuilding team did what was in their best interest instead of resolving themselves to screw over the Lightning for some reason, they would take the assets we give up in the exchange, and gladly pay the 4.7m in real money for basically one of the best guys you would want on your roster to groom young players and create a positive locker room culture.

...and yes we would have to pay some assets. So what? We are one of the deepest and youngest teams in the league with our core signed for a long long time. Even if we were to give up something stupid, which shouldn't happen, we could still do it and not bat an eyelash.

As for Miller, you mention him as if he'd be a cap dump. Please tell me I am misreading and don't think we would be offered anything less than a 1st for him.

 

[HoseEmDown]

This isn't really for the trade deadline but for the offseason on how to get rid of Callahan without having to pay a high pick or good prospect. So Rob says he hears stuff about Callahan back to NY, so let's make that happen and no we aren't taking the conditions off the first or giving them a 2nd. Callahan to NY for Brendan Smith and Matt Beleskey. NY retains 20% on Smith which takes his cap hit to 3.48 and Beleksey is at 1.9 so total of 5.38 so we save 420k. Not a lot of savings but doesn't cost us anything and for the Rangers they get out of Smith who has an extra year left.

So then the next move is trading Smith and Paquette to Ottawa for Zack Smith. Smith makes 3.25 for two years so we save 230k between him and the other Smith. Still not a lot but slowly getting cap space. Ottawa does it because Brendan Smith would have a higher cap hit and actual cash is roughly the same going forward, Smith has a 1mil bonus before the 20-21 season so Ottawa could move him before then to save even more money. The real reason they do it is to get Paquette who would be a cheaper forward for them then Smith is. For us we upgrade Paquette into Zack Smith.

The next move for me would be Beleskey to Montreal for Schlemko or Edmonton for Manning. Its trash for trash but we will need a depth defender more than a depth forward. We could just bury or buyout Beleskey for cheap but we will need to bring someone up so the savings are minimal and we need defenders since we'll lose three. So Callahan at 5.8 becomes Smith 3.25 and Schlemko 2.1 a total of 5.35 a savings of 450k. You may say that's not enough just buy him out. But.

We will still need to pay Paquette and say he gets 1.25, with Smith already there that 1.25 is cap savings so we are up to 1.7. The defense needs 3 guys to just get 7 D, say we do Foote and Masin we will want a vet guy who probably gets 1mil. With Schlemko we already have that so that's another 1mil in savings and we are up to 2.7 in savings. Only 500k off of what we would buying Callahan out, without having to give up any assets. We could still trade Schlemko for a cheaper 7th D and free up more cap. I think there's ways to move Callahan that doesn't cost us a lot.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

What... what the hell would the point of that be? I can't.

 

[HoseEmDown]

What... what the hell would the point of that be? I can't.

We open up 2.7 in cap space, upgrade Paquette to Smith and don't spend any assets to do it. We are healthy scratching Coburn or Girardi this year who make 3.7 and 3 so if we sat Schlemko it's still cheaper than what we are doing this year. I guess you'd rather trade Miller, a 2nd, Raddysh, Gourde, a future 1st or more just to get rid of Callahan.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

This isn't really for the trade deadline but for the offseason on how to get rid of Callahan without having to pay a high pick or good prospect. So Rob says he hears stuff about Callahan back to NY, so let's make that happen and no we aren't taking the conditions off the first or giving them a 2nd. Callahan to NY for Brendan Smith and Matt Beleskey. NY retains 20% on Smith which takes his cap hit to 3.48 and Beleksey is at 1.9 so total of 5.38 so we save 420k. Not a lot of savings but doesn't cost us anything and for the Rangers they get out of Smith who has an extra year left.

So then the next move is trading Smith and Paquette to Ottawa for Zack Smith. Smith makes 3.25 for two years so we save 230k between him and the other Smith. Still not a lot but slowly getting cap space. Ottawa does it because Brendan Smith would have a higher cap hit and actual cash is roughly the same going forward, Smith has a 1mil bonus before the 20-21 season so Ottawa could move him before then to save even more money. The real reason they do it is to get Paquette who would be a cheaper forward for them then Smith is. For us we upgrade Paquette into Zack Smith.

The next move for me would be Beleskey to Montreal for Schlemko or Edmonton for Manning. Its trash for trash but we will need a depth defender more than a depth forward. We could just bury or buyout Beleskey for cheap but we will need to bring someone up so the savings are minimal and we need defenders since we'll lose three. So Callahan at 5.8 becomes Smith 3.25 and Schlemko 2.1 a total of 5.35 a savings of 450k. You may say that's not enough just buy him out. But.

We will still need to pay Paquette and say he gets 1.25, with Smith already there that 1.25 is cap savings so we are up to 1.7. The defense needs 3 guys to just get 7 D, say we do Foote and Masin we will want a vet guy who probably gets 1mil. With Schlemko we already have that so that's another 1mil in savings and we are up to 2.7 in savings. Only 500k off of what we would buying Callahan out, without having to give up any assets. We could still trade Schlemko for a cheaper 7th D and free up more cap. I think there's ways to move Callahan that doesn't cost us a lot.

just entirely too much work lol.... I do think is teams interested in callahan yes and one ny rangers if the move zuccarella could use him to be leader again etc... i heard some rumblings today on ny doing stuff so see if it heats up or is hogwash..... is always a lot of stuff out there you cant trust.... but will say things trades etc.. have patterns that if you listen you see when they start heating up by more then one source etc.... I never trust too much on anyone even insiders who have never done me wrong just my nature but generally with the 40 years of contacts ive developed can hear enough from multiple sources to say ya this is seeming to be legit. right now its a maybe... did have more then one confirmation on isle that they seriously interested in zucarella so threw that out here....now feeling pretty good since heard it first from rangers contacts and now from isles contacts etc...am sure in next couple weeks though things will get MORE FLUID and can change etc... is ny ready for a full on tank though? is also a question...so is zuc really available etc... how many others are hayes? etc... so till hear more will wait patiently as always will update what get but right now its all speculation for sure....at least to me by me

 

[HoseEmDown]

just entirely too much work lol.... I do think is teams interested in callahan yes and one ny rangers if the move zuccarella could use him to be leader again etc... i heard some rumblings today on ny doing stuff so see if it heats up or is hogwash..... is always a lot of stuff out there you cant trust.... but will say things trades etc.. have patterns that if you listen you see when they start heating up by more then one source etc.... I never trust too much on anyone even insiders who have never done me wrong just my nature but generally with the 40 years of contacts ive developed can hear enough from multiple sources to say ya this is seeming to be legit. right now its a maybe... did have more then one confirmation on isle that they seriously interested in zucarella so threw that out here....now feeling pretty good since heard it first from rangers contacts and now from isles contacts etc...am sure in next couple weeks though things will get MORE FLUID and can change etc... is ny ready for a full on tank though? is also a question...so is zuc really available etc... how many others are hayes? etc... so till hear more will wait patiently as always will update what get but right now its all speculation for sure....at least to me by me

It's definitely too much work, watching the NBA trade deadline had me thinking about how they flip contracts around easily, NHL is too vanilla in their trades. Either way though nobody is taking Callahan at full value unless we sweeten the pot and I was trying to find a way to where we didn't have to do that. Something pretty close to cap nuetral and then we can try to move the new cheaper assets separately to get the cap off easier than Callahan himself. The Rangers need to retool so bringing in Callahan doesn't make sense especially if we aren't paying them to take him so I'm not sure they'd be interested, not sure why your sources say they would be? They got enough high prices mediocre talent in Stall, Shattenkirk, Smith, Strome and Namestnikov that adding another one at 5.8 doesn't seem logical.

 

[AndreRoy]

I think these next two offseasons are going to be very defining between how SY wanted to build a team, and how JB wants to build a team.

I feel like Palat or Johnson will be gone. $11.2m off the blueline at the end of this year, but 3 holes to fill. Palat is the most expensive for someone who has been hurt a bit lately and isn't really outproducing Killorn. Everyone goes back to Miller, but i'm not sure he is the odd man out here, and I wouldn't be shocked to see JB favor a bit more size in the lineup.

For starters Johnson should not be in this conversation. He’s one of our best goal scorers and gives us a spare top six center if Point or Stamkos goes down; we have plenty of two-way wingers in the system but we’re short on both high-end goal scorers and high-end centers so Johnson should be the last one we think of moving.

Also Johnson, Palat, and Killorn all have full NTCs and no reason to waive them, so our options for clearing cap space this summer essentially come down to Callahan, Miller, Gourde, and McDonagh (the latter two can still technically be traded until their new contracts kick in.) Obviously McDonagh is the least likely to be traded and if we were to move him it would almost certainly be because we have another top four defenseman coming in, so he isn’t a realistic option to clear cap space for Point. That leaves Callahan, Miller, and Gourde.

The following summer we’ll have to lose two more big contracts, one of which can be Callahan coming off the books unless he’s the only guy we move this summer. Gourde and McDonagh will have their full NTCs at that point but Killorn’s will be gone so he can be added to the list.

In summary:

This summer we have to move one of Callahan, Miller, or Gourde.

The following summer we have to move/lose two of Callahan, Miller, or Killorn.

Given that we just signed Gourde and that there’s no guarantee we’ll find a taker for Killorn on his 16-team trade list I think there’s a very good chance that Miller will be the odd man out either this summer or the next.

Finally all this is just to afford the guys we already have. If you want to talk about Karlsson or Panarin pipe dreams then you can add two more players to the trade list - we’d have to jettison Callahan, Miller, Gourde, and McDonagh to add one of those guys.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

It's definitely too much work, watching the NBA trade deadline had me thinking about how they flip contracts around easily, NHL is too vanilla in their trades. Either way though nobody is taking Callahan at full value unless we sweeten the pot and I was trying to find a way to where we didn't have to do that. Something pretty close to cap nuetral and then we can try to move the new cheaper assets separately to get the cap off easier than Callahan himself. The Rangers need to retool so bringing in Callahan doesn't make sense especially if we aren't paying them to take him so I'm not sure they'd be interested, not sure why your sources say they would be? They got enough high prices mediocre talent in Stall, Shattenkirk, Smith, Strome and Namestnikov that adding another one at 5.8 doesn't seem logical.

my thoughts are if move zucc they need a leader and callahan still fits that bill... A lot of people think callahan in different role is a second line player. He cant play the speed game with us on rangers? a columbus? some heavy team? I dont know myself but do not think he is as useless as how we use him. Also do not want him on second line just like dont want killorn on second line or erne... I might be wrong on all three though lol.... Maybe the bigger bodies or older bodies would do better then I think It does make sense though if they trade their number one player to bring back a guy that has grit and does everything correctly as a man.... They still want to have fans show up and over the years they have pissed off a lot of fans... So yes I agree with you on some of callahan but with my news on karlsson thing callahan was going to ny as IS no cap retained etc.. I expect it still to be same if they are interested so yes we can off him imho as he is.... Wont say ohhh my god every team is calling on callahan but think we would be surprised at how many actually would call on him..

 

[God King Fudge]

LeBrun still says Tampa has talked about Simmonds and I continue to think it'd be a great move.

I don't think we're going past the deadline without an addition, especially with how the offense has preformed over the last month or so.

If they were still pumping 4-5 goals a game I could see us sitting still but I don't see how you feel comfortable with another slow second half looming.

 

[CupsOverCash]

LeBrun still says Tampa has talked about Simmonds and I continue to think it'd be a great move.

I don't think we're going past the deadline without an addition, especially with how the offense has preformed over the last month or so.

If they were still pumping 4-5 goals a game I could see us sitting still but I don't see how you feel comfortable with another slow second half looming.

If he makes us a tougher team to play against I think Im for it. However Im concerned about our scoring after our big guns. Simmonds has been a pretty consistent 20 goals scorer his whole career so he can score goals. I just wonder how much he will help us when it matters most. I have high hopes for a guy like Panarin but Simmonds is probably more realistic.

 

[These Are The Days]

I'm glossing over it because it's virtually inconsequential. If the entire league formed a coalition against us, sure, we would have to buy Callahan out or retain. However if even a single rebuilding team did what was in their best interest instead of resolving themselves to screw over the Lightning for some reason, they would take the assets we give up in the exchange, and gladly pay the 4.7m in real money for basically one of the best guys you would want on your roster to groom young players and create a positive locker room culture.

...and yes we would have to pay some assets. So what? We are one of the deepest and youngest teams in the league with our core signed for a long long time. Even if we were to give up something stupid, which shouldn't happen, we could still do it and not bat an eyelash.

As for Miller, you mention him as if he'd be a cap dump. Please tell me I am misreading and don't think we would be offered anything less than a 1st for him.

Well said. Miller is a Swiss Army knife and would slot into the CBJ lineup no problem if they lost Panarin. No, he's not gonna replace the same production but he's gonna score 20 goals like he always does. You can do A LOT worse than him when we are probably going to sell low on him. Given the STUPID amount of cap space they'll have as a consequence of not signing Panarin, they will be able to add more players for the cost and replenish their depth. I have to imagine they're going to do business with us if we tried. This is merely an example as Miller could go ANYWHERE

The NYR are all but a perfect destination for Callahan not just due to history but because he is an ideal addition for the culture of the team alone and will not cost a fortune to retain in future years. You can give them incentive to eat ONE year of salary. We already took Miller off their hands as a favor and I'm sure a draft pick draws us even. It's a team getting younger and you're basically putting the old captain back in the room who is the epitome of NYR culture. The NYR aren't exactly sweating for space either. If Callahan+2nd for whatever prospect they can afford to lose doesn't get it done then it means they genuinely do not want Callahan back.

This is probably the easiest tough situation we have been in over the years. Two trades and the WORST thing that's gonna happen is we re-sign Stralman to a modest raise while we bridge Point and lose Coburn (who looks like he is falling off a cliff lately) while Cernak effectively becomes our new Girardi as time goes by.


Oh and we don't get good deals that won't actually hurt us. SFY has put on a master class for JBB to take over conducting

 

[CupsOverCash]

Well said. Miller is a Swiss Army knife and would slot into the CBJ lineup no problem if they lost Panarin. No, he's not gonna replace the same production but he's gonna score 20 goals like he always does. You can do A LOT worse than him when we are probably going to sell low on him. Given the STUPID amount of cap space they'll have as a consequence of not signing Panarin, they will be able to add more players for the cost and replenish their depth. I have to imagine they're going to do business with us if we tried. This is merely an example as Miller could go ANYWHERE

The NYR are all but a perfect destination for Callahan not just due to history but because he is an ideal addition for the culture of the team alone and will not cost a fortune to retain in future years. You can give them incentive to eat ONE year of salary. We already took Miller off their hands as a favor and I'm sure a draft pick draws us even. It's a team getting younger and you're basically putting the old captain back in the room who is the epitome of NYR culture. The NYR aren't exactly sweating for space either. If Callahan+2nd for whatever prospect they can afford to lose doesn't get it done then it means they genuinely do not want Callahan back.

This is probably the easiest tough situation we have been in over the years. Two trades and the WORST thing that's gonna happen is we re-sign Stralman to a modest raise while we bridge Point and lose Coburn (who looks like he is falling off a cliff lately) while Cernak effectively becomes our new Girardi as time goes by.


Oh and we don't get good deals that won't actually hurt us. SFY has put on a master class for JBB to take over conducting

I think the amazing thing is next years team has potential to be better overall than this years team. Could be some addition by subtraction going on but we wont know for sure until we see the finished product.

 

[Felonious Python]

I don't think we're getting Bread Man at the deadline, but I do think he's interested in TB. Although he's just dropped Dan Milstein, who reps Vasi, Kuch, and Volkov.

 

[These Are The Days]

I think the amazing thing is next years team has potential to be better overall than this years team. Could be some addition by subtraction going on but we wont know for sure until we see the finished product.

You're absolutely right about this. Sergachev and Cernak project to be better than both Girardi and Coburn and Joseph honestly looks like he's going to be a 20 goal scorer which at least breaks us even with Miller. There is so much reason to be optimistic for next year.

We have the core locked up. All that's left is to secure additional prospects and pieces as they come to their first contracts and extensions

 

[These Are The Days]

I don't think we're getting Bread Man at the deadline, but I do think he's interested in TB. Although he's just dropped Dan Milstein, who reps Vasi, Kuch, and Volkov.

That'll simplify things

 

[God King Fudge]

If he makes us a tougher team to play against I think Im for it. However Im concerned about our scoring after our big guns. Simmonds has been a pretty consistent 20 goals scorer his whole career so he can score goals. I just wonder how much he will help us when it matters most. I have high hopes for a guy like Panarin but Simmonds is probably more realistic.

I want Simmonds strictly for how he can impact a game without his scoring. He's not the offensive player he has been, but he adds a presence that no one on this squad (or honestly, in the organization) provides. In the STL game, the goals weren't coming. The effort wasn't there. There's no one that can go out and get nasty in a scrum. There's no one that can really answer to a guy taking liberties on Stamkos or Kuch. There's no one that can provide that intense kind of game to try and spark something in the guys on the bench.

We got bullied by Washington in the ECF. Simmonds helps on that front. I don't care if he takes a spot from someone. This team is Cup or bust. Period. Giving our team the best chance to overcome that in the playoffs is the most important piece. Not who gets what ice time. Simmonds gives this team an element they do not have and the continued linking of Tampa to Simmonds shows to me that JBB at least somewhat agrees.

Would I prefer Panarin or Stone? Of course I would. I think Simmonds would be a very nice pickup for this team, though.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I want Simmonds strictly for how he can impact a game without his scoring. He's not the offensive player he has been, but he adds a presence that no one on this squad (or honestly, in the organization) provides. In the STL game, the goals weren't coming. The effort wasn't there. There's no one that can go out and get nasty in a scrum. There's no one that can really answer to a guy taking liberties on Stamkos or Kuch. There's no one that can provide that intense kind of game to try and spark something in the guys on the bench.

We got bullied by Washington in the ECF. Simmonds helps on that front. I don't care if he takes a spot from someone. This team is Cup or bust. Period. Giving our team the best chance to overcome that in the playoffs is the most important piece. Not who gets what ice time. Simmonds gives this team an element they do not have and the continued linking of Tampa to Simmonds shows to me that JBB at least somewhat agrees.

Would I prefer Panarin or Stone? Of course I would. I think Simmonds would be a very nice pickup for this team, though.

Is Simmons still this kind of player? Is he still a bitch to play against?

If so, I'm all in on that. 100%