Line Combos: 2018-2019 Starting Roster

[PhilJets]

Would this 2 different look power play set up work?

Pp1
The usual
Buff
Laine
Wheeler
Scheifele
Perrault

Pp2
Myers
Morrissey
Connor
Ehlers
Little


???

 

[Whileee]

Sorry, I'm going to give a long answer first and then a short answer after... sorry

Long Version: Corsi History Lesson

Long ago, hockey bloggers, mostly fans of Albertan NHL teams, were looking for a way to help evaluate a player's effectiveness beyond their scoring. They knew that +/- sucked so they needed something better but along the same idea. They had been tracking scoring chances as a community project to study that kind of stuff.
Tim Barnes (a blogger that went by Vic Ferrari, now with the Washington Capitals) overheard an interview with (I think) the AGM of the Buffalo Sabres. The gentleman mentioned that the Sabres use shot attempts to get a general idea of goaltender workload.
Skipping ahead a bit, Barnes wrote an article titled "Possession is Everything." He showed the shot differentials for 3 games, noted that it matched his perception of the tilt in the ice for those games. He named it after Jim Corsi, saying that the person being interviewed was Jim, but in reality it was just because he didn't think the AGM's name matched and liked Jim's moustache. Ironically, while the person interviewed was not Corsi, it was his idea to look at shot attempts.
Skipping some more steps, we found out stuff about Corsi. Corsi predicting success better than goals or other similar stats. Corsi correlated highly with possession and time on attack. Corsi correlated highly with scoring chances, and didn't need to be tracked manually (and that differences in scoring chances and Corsi tends to regress towards Corsi).
When it comes to measuring itself, shot volume, Corsi is the best.
Shot volume matters, so it predicts success, and it seems to do so better than some other things (like possession*, goals, etc.) and especially so when adjusted for things like score effects and such.
Other things matter too, and so Corsi is both imperfect and can be improved upon. Interestingly, sometimes adding more doesn't always make it better.

Short version
Corsi correlates with possession, but that's more anecdotal (unless you want to specifically talk about possession).
True puck possession is nice, but the real reason we care about Corsi is that it both measures something that matters (shot volume) and helps you know which players/teams are likely to fall down or bounce back.
We have one *public* year of attack TOI, but my company has also tracked the same thing.
Turns out attack ice time and possession both are inferior to Corsi in evaluating players... but is still more information so it is useful.

Can't disagree, but also think that there are stylistic differences that might make some of the generalizations overly broad. Look at how the Copp-Lowry-Tanev dominates Corsi. It's mainly through limiting CA. I don't think it's just because they stifle offense, but also because they are very good at keeping the puck at the other end of the ice, even though they don't generate a huge volume of shot attempts. In fact, I would bet that their ratio of shot attempts per attack zone time is on the low end, because they cycle the puck as a defensive weapon. Their approach is to gain possession in their own zone, and then hold the puck in the opponents end. So, for them, attack zone time might be more highly associated with CF% than another line that is higher event both ways.

Basically, I'm not a big fan of averages.

 

[voyageur]

Would this 2 different look power play set up work?

Pp1
The usual
Buff
Laine
Wheeler
Scheifele
Perrault

Pp2
Myers
Morrissey
Connor
Ehlers
Little


???

I think Roslovic/Lemeieux would get in before Morrissey. Just to keep Morrissey's minutes reasonable.

 

[voyageur]

Connor-Scheif-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Laine
Lemieux-Roslovic-Ehlers
Tanev-Lowry-Copp

Dano can fill in bottom 2 wings.
For me it's between Petan, Griffith and Veselainen for the final spot. Veselainen with Rosie and Ehlers would be interesting. I wonder if they would want to keep him around until the trip to Finland. Practice with pros, play a few home games. Griffith looks good. Would be good if we can slide him through waivers. Petan is still the front runner I think. But this is probably his last season with the Jets.

Morrissey-Trouba
Myers/Morrow-Buff
Kulikov-Morrow/Myers
Chiarot

If Morrow wins a starting spot, easy to switch him and Myers, spread out top 6. Chiarot is good at 7.

Brossoit has the edge at backup. Still expecting Calvin Pickard on the Moose as 3.

 

[Halberdier]

Can't disagree, but also think that there are stylistic differences that might make some of the generalizations overly broad.

...

Basically, I'm not a big fan of averages.

Amen brother!

Corsi is useful tool, but not for comparing very different lines and players against each others.

Haven't done it yet but I just fancied about making a list of TOP-50 5-on-5 gDiff/82 players for 16-17 season, another list of TOP-50 CF% players for 16-17 season and then compare that list to TOP-50 (or TOP-100) 5-on-5 gDiff/82 of 17-18.

Corsi gospel says goals are random and Corsi is much better to predict future goal difference than current goal difference. But as Corsi lacks quality factor, I expect to see different results with top guys that are not your average guys with average IQ, average tactics, average SH% etc. etc.

 

[Jack722]

Imagine having two ~60% Corsi lines, both of which absolutely wrecked their opposition last year.

...and then having Laine-Scheifele-Wheeler as a line.

And a 30 goal scorer and upcoming 2c playing the weak matchups? That lineup looks monstrous to me.

 

[Maukkis]

And a 30 goal scorer and upcoming 2c playing the weak matchups? That lineup looks monstrous to me.

There is no reason to be worried about the offense whatsoever anytime soon.

It is the defense that scares me, both now and in the future.

 

[surixon]

Pp lineups:

--------- goal -------- Conner
------------------------------------------------------------------------Scheifele -----------Wheeler--------------Laine------------------------------------------------------------------Buff---------------------------------


---------------goal-----------Perrault--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Roslovic/Little----------------------------little/Roslovic-------------------Ehlers------------------------Morrissey------------------------

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't share the same concern over the cost of dumping Mason. If we went with Helly & Mason we are among the top couple teams in terms of money spent on goaltending. Right in behind Montreal with Price's $10.5 M cap hit. No way a team spending top starters money to their # 1 should be carrying a $4.1 M backup. The cost of dumping him was Armia a 4th and a 7th. Chevy needed the space as he was still chasing Stastny and didn't have any of his RFA's signed. Armia while a serviceable player is easy enough replaced from within. I'd argue a slimmed down Dano easily replaces his production at 1/2 the cost. Sure we could have moved Myers or MP, but Myers is our 4th best defenseman and MP is an important middle 6 winger that drives play and can be put anywhere you need in the lineup. I'm assuming you'd want futures in exchange for either of them as a hockey trade likely brings back comparable salary.

I'd take MP or Myers + Brossoit over Mason and Armia quite easily. And from what we have seen from Brossoit and the total lack of interest in Mason, we may just have the better backup out of the 2. I think team's see Mason as damaged goods after last season and no one is desperate enough to take a flier on him. IMO Chevy had the depth to fix a mistake and acted on it.

I think where we diverge is in the value of Armia. His production can be replaced but his forechecking and PK will be missed. And to a lesser degree, his right handedness.

Brossoit looked very good in his first game. Not so good last night. He gave up goals in pairs. I hope that isn't going to be a habit. Mason had something of the same problem. We'll see how it works out.

I'm not sold on Myers. I think his market value would have exceeded his on ice value. I think it is possible that we could have got a better D man back in exchange for Armia instead using him the way we did. Not to mention what we would have gotten for Myers. Now I'm bracing myself for the Myers extension, both too long and too much.

I love Matty but I think we are on the edge of running out of room for him. He is a declining asset and this off-season may have been our last and only opportunity to get value for him.

No objection to dumping Mason but the price to do it was too high. Those assets could have been better applied elsewhere.

 

[RRenegade]

I think where we diverge is in the value of Armia. His production can be replaced but his forechecking and PK will be missed. And to a lesser degree, his right handedness.

Brossoit looked very good in his first game. Not so good last night. He gave up goals in pairs. I hope that isn't going to be a habit. Mason had something of the same problem. We'll see how it works out.

I'm not sold on Myers. I think his market value would have exceeded his on ice value. I think it is possible that we could have got a better D man back in exchange for Armia instead using him the way we did. Not to mention what we would have gotten for Myers. Now I'm bracing myself for the Myers extension, both too long and too much.

I love Matty but I think we are on the edge of running out of room for him. He is a declining asset and this off-season may have been our last and only opportunity to get value for him.

No objection to dumping Mason but the price to do it was too high. Those assets could have been better applied elsewhere.

While I liked Armia quite a bit, I think that Roslovic will more than replace Armia's time on both the PK & PP, for all of the PP time Armia had (limited as it may be) he scored a grand total of 0 PP Goals!

 

[Jack722]

There is no reason to be worried about the offense whatsoever anytime soon.

It is the defense that scares me, both now and in the future.

Yeah. For this season unfortunately it looks like Enstrom is exactly what we need. Don't have much confidence in any of the #4's so far.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

While I liked Armia quite a bit, I think that Roslovic will more than replace Armia's time on both the PK & PP, for all of the PP time Armia had (limited as it may be) he scored a grand total of 0 PP Goals!

If the intent was to replace Armia's lack of scoring, Roslovic is filling that position nicely.

 

[Daximus]

Pp lineups:

--------- goal -------- Conner
------------------------------------------------------------------------Scheifele -----------Wheeler--------------Laine------------------------------------------------------------------Buff---------------------------------


---------------goal-----------Perrault--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Roslovic/Little----------------------------little/Roslovic-------------------Ehlers------------------------Morrissey------------------------

I'd love to try Niku out on that left point. Kid can get shots through like a knife through butter. Between him and Ehlers they should be a solid group in getting shots on the net.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

While I liked Armia quite a bit, I think that Roslovic will more than replace Armia's time on both the PK & PP, for all of the PP time Armia had (limited as it may be) he scored a grand total of 0 PP Goals!

I'm not viewing Rosie as the Armia replacement. Right now I'm betting on Dano being that, that is 3RW. But if it was Rosie, he doesn't replace Armia's forechecking or PK'ing. Neither does Dano for that matter. It isn't about taking the minutes. Anybody can take the minutes. It is delivering the same value in those minutes.

Armia had 12 goals, 29 pts last year. I think he would have hit at least 15, 35 this year, playing with Rosie and Perreault instead of the linemates he had last year. But that is just guesswork. Can't be verified.

But whether he is replaceable or not and how well his replacement will do is entirely beside the point. The point is the value we got back for him, or lack of it. He was an asset. He is gone. We've got nothing to show for it. If we had his replacement waiting, then we should have got value for him. Asset management. That's how you keep a window open.

 

[snowkiddin]

While I do agree it was stupid and idiotic to give Armia away like that, he wasn’t a blue chipper. He can be replaced, hopefully by Dano.

His forecheck and PK will be missed for sure, but you can’t keep everyone with a salary cap.

I agree it’s too bad we gave him up for nothing.

 

[Maukkis]

While I do agree it was stupid and idiotic to give Armia away like that, he wasn’t a blue chipper. He can be replaced, hopefully by Dano.

His forecheck and PK will be missed for sure, but you can’t keep everyone with a salary cap.

I agree it’s too bad we gave him up for nothing.

His PKing ability will be missed the most, I reckon. He was never going to reach his full potential here (if he still has more in him). Replacing him should not be too hard a task.

The actual trade sucks in hindsight (Chevy utterly wasted an asset AND the cap space he got for it), though. Trading a supposedly valuable asset in exchange for absolutely nothing of use shortens your window.

 

[Halberdier]

Pp lineups:

--------- goal -------- Conner
------------------------------------------------------------------------Scheifele -----------Wheeler--------------Laine------------------------------------------------------------------Buff---------------------------------


---------------goal-----------Perrault--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Roslovic/Little----------------------------little/Roslovic-------------------Ehlers------------------------Morrissey------------------------

I can't see Myers anywhere, and I think he was the the heart and soul of 2nd PP.

 

[surixon]

I can't see Myers anywhere, and I think he was the the heart and soul of 2nd PP.

For the first half of the season before he went ice cold down the stretch. The 2nd unit was a disaster after a hot start largely due to not being able to tee up strong one timers or quick shots.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'd love to try Niku out on that left point. Kid can get shots through like a knife through butter. Between him and Ehlers they should be a solid group in getting shots on the net.

That would be a horrid decision. You are pretty much thumbing your nose at Mo who is your best young Defense man and possibly one of the best D on the team. Mo refuses to sign long term because he wants more chances to play an offensive role and instead you give the spot to a rookie who so far looks like a tire-fire in his own end.

 

[garret9]

Amen brother!

Corsi is useful tool, but not for comparing very different lines and players against each others.

Haven't done it yet but I just fancied about making a list of TOP-50 5-on-5 gDiff/82 players for 16-17 season, another list of TOP-50 CF% players for 16-17 season and then compare that list to TOP-50 (or TOP-100) 5-on-5 gDiff/82 of 17-18.

Corsi gospel says goals are random and Corsi is much better to predict future goal difference than current goal difference. But as Corsi lacks quality factor, I expect to see different results with top guys that are not your average guys with average IQ, average tactics, average SH% etc. etc.

Corsi gospel does not say goals are random...

As a distinct and direct counter to your point:

Shot quality matters, and is part of the separation of a top line player from a bottom line player, but shot quantity equally matters for top lines as it does lesser lines.

Aside, also, shot quantity talent is cheaper in wins/dollar than shot quality talent is.

 

[garret9]

^ as a fun aside, I just looked at what separates the average 1st line from the average 2nd, 3rd, and 4th line... shot quantity (using shots for and against) vs shot quality (using shooting and save percentage)

Shot quantity separates 1st from 2nd more than shot quality, but shot quality separates a 1st from 3rd and 4th line more...

Now, one thing to keep in mind is there is some survivorship bias in this data. A player having a rough year in percentages is likely to have their ice time diminished and vice versa, so it may not be shot quality talent but also variance creating the difference... and this is far more likely to happen in on-ice sh% and sv% than in shot differentials (the whole PDO thing was discovered because of this).

 

[Daximus]

That would be a horrid decision. You are pretty much thumbing your nose at Mo who is your best young Defense man and possibly one of the best D on the team. Mo refuses to sign long term because he wants more chances to play an offensive role and instead you give the spot to a rookie who so far looks like a tire-fire in his own end.

Not putting players in areas they exceed at over someone holding out is a great way to also lose good players.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Not putting players in areas they exceed at over someone holding out is a great way to also lose good players.

Yep, but if it came down to who would I rather lose Morrissey a complete player, your top shutdown guy and a guy who has offensive potential or Niku. I'm going to hold onto Morrissey for dear life.

 

[Halberdier]

Corsi gospel does not say goals are random...

As a distinct and direct counter to your point:

Shot quality matters, and is part of the separation of a top line player from a bottom line player, but shot quantity equally matters for top lines as it does lesser lines.

Aside, also, shot quantity talent is cheaper in wins/dollar than shot quality talent is.

Thanks, that's good one.

What I have on my mind is a bit different though, as I think I should compare TOP CF% players for season 1 to TOP G+/-/82 guys for season 1 and TOP G+/-/82 guys for season 2 and then find out which list, TOP CF% guys or TOP G+/- better matches for season 2 best players according to real scoring differential.

My hypothesis is that large bunch of TOP CF% guys are not that superior players and therefore they won't be that on the next season either. For example for the Jets Laine and Scheifele are by far the best guys for 5-on-5 goal differential while being pretty average on CF%, while Perreault I guess is by far the best CF% guy but pretty average on real goals. I haven't checked stats for ages, but that is what I remember and might be wrong.

 

[Daximus]

Yep, but if it came down to who would I rather lose Morrissey a complete player, your top shutdown guy and a guy who has offensive potential or Niku. I'm going to hold onto Morrissey for dear life.

But in reality you wont lose either of them because that is a silly way to create lines. You play the best lines and you win and players stay because you are a winning team. This is the same logic that goes into playing Myers on the PP. Have to keep the vets happy!