Inspired by some of my research on Draisaitl/McDavid, I looked at Tomas Hertl's even strength numbers as a whole, his numbers with Couture, and his numbers without Couture, all since the start of the 2017-2018 season. Then I ranked them among 170 centers who have played at least 1000 ES minutes in that time frame. I hid the numbers with a spoiler, so that I wouldn't take up too much of the thread with a massive graph.
Player
TOI
Goals
Goals/60
Rank
Points
Points/60
Rank
CF%
Rank
CF% Rel
Rank
GF%
Rank
GF% Rel
Rank
Average Ranking
Hertl
1740
28
0.97
33
63
2.17
44
53.14%
31
0.43%
89
50%
82
-0.51%
88
61.17
Hertl with Couture
1198
15
0.75
69
40
2.00
56
52.33%
41
-0.68%
108
46.56%
120
-5.36%
130
87.33
Hertl without Couture
542
13
1.44
3
23
2.55
21
54.98%
10
2.36%
46
57.38%
16
7.85%
13
18.17
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Basically, the gist of things is that Hertl as a whole is a solid #2C, Hertl with Couture is a mediocre #2C, but Hertl without Couture is a legit #1C. He scores goals like a legit #1C, he scores points like a legit #1C, and he drives play like a legit #1C. When I say legit #1C, I'm not talking about a Brayden Schenn or a Ryan Johansen; I'm talking about a prime Jonathan Toews or a Patrice Bergeron. The Corsi and GF stats are a bit below those guys but the goals are notably ahead and the points are roughly equal after adjusting for the higher scoring league.
Thoughts? Might the small sample size (85ish games with Couture and 35ish without) be skewing the data in a direction that doesn't match the truth? Could he play an 82 game season as a full-time center without Logan Couture and come close to sustaining these numbers?
Most importantly, should we keep Hertl away from Logan full-time?
Not to get too self righteous here, but I have been saying this exact thing since at least the middle of last year, yet most everyone either blew it off, straight up disagreed that they are not great together, or said that they thought Cooch needed Hertl to stay afloat in possession essentially. These same trends, even if not as pronounced as this year, were happening last year too.
To answer your question, I do not think they have to be separated entirely, but that they must have a guy like Meier, Kane, Thornton etc on the line to bridge the gap between how Cooch wants to play, and how Hertl wants to play, because they do not play the same game, and especially do not generate offense in the same way.
Thoughts? Might the small sample size (85ish games with Couture and 35ish without) be skewing the data in a direction that doesn't match the truth? Could he play an 82 game season as a full-time center without Logan Couture and come close to sustaining these numbers?
Most importantly, should we keep Hertl away from Logan full-time?
Not to get too self righteous here, but I have been saying this exact thing since at least the middle of last year, yet most everyone either blew it off, straight up disagreed that they are not great together, or said that they thought Cooch needed Hertl to stay afloat in possession essentially. These same trends, even if not as pronounced as this year, were happening last year too.
To answer your question, I do not think they have to be separated entirely, but that they must have a guy like Meier, Kane, Thornton etc on the line to bridge the gap between how Cooch wants to play, and how Hertl wants to play, because they do not play the same game, and especially do not generate offense in the same way.
Yes, you did, and I thought of your posts when looking at this.
In my opinion, the best move is just to separate them full time, give Donskoi and Meier to Couture, and get a top notch playmaking winger for Kane and Hertl. Ideally, Mark Stone.
QoC isn’t listed but his OZFO%, which is generally an indicator of what kind of deployment and competition a player is getting, was like 45% with Couture and 55% without him. Definitely has an impact. Most frequent forward linemates, when away from Couture:
QoC isn’t listed but his OZFO%, which is generally an indicator of what kind of deployment and competition a player is getting, was like 45% with Couture and 55% without him. Definitely has an impact. Most frequent forward linemates, when away from Couture:
Yes, you did, and I thought of your posts when looking at this.
In my opinion, the best move is just to separate them full time, give Donskoi and Meier to Couture, and get a top notch playmaking winger for Kane and Hertl. Ideally, Mark Stone.
I agree that Stone would Stone would be a good fit for the Sharks but I'd play him with Couture. Meier and Donskoi belong together but I'd play them with Hertl. I still think they would be the best possession line leaguewide and as such could shut down pretty much every opponent if needed. This would be a very deep forward group:
I agree that Stone would Stone would be a good fit for the Sharks but I'd play him with Couture. Meier and Donskoi belong together but I'd play them with Hertl. I still think they would be the best possession line leaguewide and as such could shut down pretty much every opponent if needed. This would be a very deep forward group:
I doubt Hertl and Meier get paired up again without Couture. Couture needs a possession monster to play with so he can get his points. Kinda like those little fish that swim alongside large Sharks picking up the scraps. Also, no way Kane is leaving Hertls side either while they are playing the way they are together. That's a legit #1 line right now and they are filling the net together.
I doubt Hertl and Meier get paired up again without Couture. Couture needs a possession monster to play with so he can get his points. Kinda like those little fish that swim alongside large Sharks picking up the scraps. Also, no way Kane is leaving Hertls side either while they are playing the way they are together. That's a legit #1 line right now and they are filling the net together.
Donkey is also a big part of that line clicking too lately. No way they separate that line. That line is one of the most exciting lines we have had since JT fell off a cliff and stopped dragging players around.
Donkey is also a big part of that line clicking too lately. No way they separate that line. That line is one of the most exciting lines we have had since JT fell off a cliff and stopped dragging players around.
Donkey is replaceable on that line IMO depending on who they get at the deadline. He's been great but when he's not going he's a liability, whereas the other 2 still provide a lot in their effort and play style.
Donkey is replaceable on that line IMO depending on who they get at the deadline. He's been great but when he's not going he's a liability, whereas the other 2 still provide a lot in their effort and play style.
I love Donskoi but he is just flat out not good enough to be the playmaker on a Cup contending team’s top line. That’s probably the biggest hole on our roster right now.
I don’t think it’s that big of a leap to say Meier’s been the best forward this year. Definitely still think it’s Hertl, but if he had posted this after the first 30 games of so, Meier would probably be the pick imo.
Meier looked like the best forward the first quarter of the season, but he has fallen off ever since Hertl was shifted to a different line (at which point Donskoi and Kane took off, coincidence? I don't think so lol). Hertl probably made Meier look better, and on top of that, he has been amazing the past month. It's definitely Hertl, and I'd say it's not particularly close.
I don’t think it’s that big of a leap to say Meier’s been the best forward this year. Definitely still think it’s Hertl, but if he had posted this after the first 30 games of so, Meier would probably be the pick imo.
I've been waiting my whole life for a player like Evander Kane on the SHARKS. He can score goals by himself and if one shark is in a fight all of them are. He embodies what a shark is.
I don't agree. When Donkey is cold, he stops skating and he is a full on liability. Hence the reason he got dropped all the way to the 4th line earlier this season.
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