Speculation: 2018-2019 Sharks Roster Discussion Part II

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matt trick

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Jun 12, 2007
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From memory, here's what we got for next year. Holy crap does Wilson have his hands full.

Signed:
Logan Couture- $8M
Evander Kane- $7M
Tomas Hertl- $5.625M
Melker Karlsson: $2.0M
Goodrow: $.95M

Signed Prospects:
Dylan Grambrell: $865k
Sasha Chlemevski: $775k
Alex Checkovich: $773k
Alex True: $725k

UFAs
Joe Pavelski: Target Cap Hit $6-8M
Joonas Donskoi: Target Cap Hit: $3.5-4.5M
Joe Thornton: Target Cap Hit: $1-4M
Marcus Sorensen: Target Cap Hit: $1.5-2.5M
Shovels: Target Cap Hit: $1.5-2.5M


RFAs:
Timo Meier: Target Cap Hit: $3.5-5.75M
Kevin Labanc: Target Cap Hit: $1.75-3.5M
Rourke Chartier: Target Cap Hit: $.75-.95M

Signed:
Brent Burns- $8M
Marc-Eduoard Vlasic- $7M
Justin Braun- $3.8M
Brenden Dillon- $3.27M
Radek Simek- $.675M

UFA:
Erik Karlsson Target Cap Hit: $10.5-12M
Tim Heed Target Cap Hit: $0.9-1.2M

RFA:
Joakim Ryan: Target Cap Hit: $.8-1.2M

Signed:
Martin Jones- $5.75M
Aaron Dell- $1.9M
Anton Bibeau- $.675M

Notable UFAs:
Artemi Panarin: Target Cap Hit: $10-12M
Matt Duchene: Target Cap Hit: $8-10M
Marc Stone: Target Cap Hit: $7.5-9M

$83M

Who stays, who leaves, who is traded, and how do we upgrade the team? Wilson can open a whole new window this summer if he knocks it out of the park, but the margin is razor thin.
 
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StanleyCup2035

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Oct 1, 2017
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All true, except it might not be Wilson making these decisions. If Sharks are out in Round 1 and/or EK65 bolts, Doug might get a pink slip.
 

Sysreq

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Apr 9, 2015
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All true, except it might not be Wilson making these decisions. If Sharks are out in Round 1 and/or EK65 bolts, Doug might get a pink slip.

It would be folly to remove Doug Wilson from the organization. At some point he will get promoted past the day to day operations. I could see that happening if this team doesn’t turn things around. But they aren’t just going to cut him loose.
 

StanleyCup2035

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Oct 1, 2017
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It would be folly to remove Doug Wilson from the organization. At some point he will get promoted past the day to day operations. I could see that happening if this team doesn’t turn things around. But they aren’t just going to cut him loose.
Most certainly, this is how a well-run organization should do things: you FAIL and you get rewarded with a "promotion".
 

BaileyMacTavish

Hockey lovin' wolf
Nov 8, 2010
14,025
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San Jose
I am so ready for a D core that has Ryan, Simek, Karlsson, Merkley one day.

As of the present, with Ryan and Simek playing the way they have (before Ryan got sent to the shadow realm), one of the D not named Erik or Brent has to go. Vlasic's contract is pretty much unmovable so that's not viable unless he waives that NMC (thanks Doug). So that leaves Braun or Dillon and I don't know about that one chief.
 
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OrrNumber4

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Jul 25, 2002
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There is a long history of defensive prospects wowing initially before fizzling out. Marinate on that before inking in Simek as a long term player after a handful of games.

Just in recent history, Irwin and DeMelo went from hero to zero in less than a year. Even Ryan has struggled this year...

Finally, I do think that Heed and Ryan are NHL defensemen and they deserve to play, but they don't have a case over any other SJ defensemen right now. Obviously, Vlasic has been garbage lately but he has to play through it.
 
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BaileyMacTavish

Hockey lovin' wolf
Nov 8, 2010
14,025
1,361
San Jose
There is a long history of defensive prospects wowing initially before fizzling out. Marinate on that before inking in Simek as a long term player after a handful of games.

Just in recent history, Irwin and DeMelo went from hero to zero in less than a year. Even Ryan has struggled this year...

Finally, I do think that Heed and Ryan are NHL defensemen and they deserve to play, but they don't have a case over any other SJ defensemen right now. Obviously, Vlasic has been garbage lately but he has to play through it.

Yeah that's true I suppose. Still, if they do keep it up for years to come, I'd be pretty stoked
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
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There is a long history of defensive prospects wowing initially before fizzling out. Marinate on that before inking in Simek as a long term player after a handful of games.

Just in recent history, Irwin and DeMelo went from hero to zero in less than a year. Even Ryan has struggled this year...

Finally, I do think that Heed and Ryan are NHL defensemen and they deserve to play, but they don't have a case over any other SJ defensemen right now. Obviously, Vlasic has been garbage lately but he has to play through it.

The thing is, Simek and Ryan (and even Heed to a lesser extent) have shown flashes that DeMelo and Irwin never really did. With DeMelo and Irwin, it was always “hey, this guy might not be completely terrible.” With Simek, Ryan (and Heed) its “hey, this guy is actually pretty damn good.” It is a fair cautionary tale, though.

I think I would prefer Ryan on his off-side to Justin Braun at this point.
 

OrrNumber4

Registered User
Jul 25, 2002
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The thing is, Simek and Ryan (and even Heed to a lesser extent) have shown flashes that DeMelo and Irwin never really did. With DeMelo and Irwin, it was always “hey, this guy might not be completely terrible.” With Simek, Ryan (and Heed) its “hey, this guy is actually pretty damn good.” It is a fair cautionary tale, though.

You say that now, but at the time, people were totally hyping up Irwin's blazing shot and DeMelo's hockey sense and skating. Same things were said about Demers, Tennyson, Carle, going all the way back to Jeff Jillson.

Plus, Ryan is the only player of the three who's pre-NHL history suggests top-4 potential.

I think I would prefer Ryan on his off-side to Justin Braun at this point.

Really? I think Braun has been very solid, especially since he's had to carry Vlasic's brain-dead corpse.
 
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Doctor Soraluce

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
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There is a long history of defensive prospects wowing initially before fizzling out. Marinate on that before inking in Simek as a long term player after a handful of games.

Just in recent history, Irwin and DeMelo went from hero to zero in less than a year. Even Ryan has struggled this year...

Finally, I do think that Heed and Ryan are NHL defensemen and they deserve to play, but they don't have a case over any other SJ defensemen right now. Obviously, Vlasic has been garbage lately but he has to play through it.
I think Ryan has a case to be in there over Braun. Other than a few games Braun has looked worse than Ryan most nights IMO. Vlassic has been bad too but I doubt he ever sits.

I don't really think people were hyping Demelo as having good vision etc, just that they wanted him in over Pollack for his mobility. Irwin's shot was good but I think it was pretty well understood that he was kind of a pylon. Still, Simik isn't exactly young. I don't think he suffers the same problems of inconsistency that younger players went thru. He may have an off game here and there but he probably understand the strengths and weaknesses of his game at this age. At least that's how it looks watching him play. He's not trying to be something he's not... Like Vlassic. :laugh:
 
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Saskatoon

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Aug 24, 2006
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You say that now, but at the time, people were totally hyping up Irwin's blazing shot and DeMelo's hockey sense and skating. Same things were said about Demers, Tennyson, Carle, going all the way back to Jeff Jillson.

Plus, Ryan is the only player of the three who's pre-NHL history suggests top-4 potential.

As an undrafted free agent if Simek turns into a Carle or Demers you have to be super happy (both guys had 10+ season NHL careers)
 

Pinkfloyd

Registered User
Oct 29, 2006
70,238
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Folsom
You say that now, but at the time, people were totally hyping up Irwin's blazing shot and DeMelo's hockey sense and skating. Same things were said about Demers, Tennyson, Carle, going all the way back to Jeff Jillson.

Plus, Ryan is the only player of the three who's pre-NHL history suggests top-4 potential.

I think everyone knew after a few games of seeing Irwin that all he had was his shot but that was still better than the alternatives available to the team at the time when Douglas Murray was cooked and DeMelo's comparison at the time was Roman Polak in the defensive zone. But I don't remember any hyping of DeMelo's hockey sense and skating. That's a new one to me. A lot of this seems like revisionist history to me.
 

Herschel

Registered User
Dec 8, 2009
1,353
402
There is a long history of defensive prospects wowing initially before fizzling out. Marinate on that before inking in Simek as a long term player after a handful of games.

Just in recent history, Irwin and DeMelo went from hero to zero in less than a year. Even Ryan has struggled this year...

Finally, I do think that Heed and Ryan are NHL defensemen and they deserve to play, but they don't have a case over any other SJ defensemen right now. Obviously, Vlasic has been garbage lately but he has to play through it.

While Vlasic' play has definitely been an issue this season the last two games he has played better than anything Heed or Ryan have shown in their limited careers. Truthfully, a bad Vlasic is still a solid NHL third pairing D.
 
Mar 1, 2002
66,105
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IF these are the two options.....what do you do?

Keep Couture and let Pavs walk

Sign Pavs and trade Couture for cheaper assets, picks?
 

Gecklund

Registered User
Jul 17, 2012
25,142
11,717
California
From memory, here's what we got for next year. Holy crap does Wilson have his hands full.

Signed:
Logan Couture- $8M
Evander Kane- $7M
Tomas Hertl- $5.625M
Melker Karlsson: $2.0M
Goodrow: $.95M

Signed Prospects:
Dylan Grambrell: $865k
Sasha Chlemevski: $775k
Alex Checkovich: $773k
Alex True: $725k

UFAs
Joe Pavelski: Target Cap Hit $6-8M
Joonas Donskoi: Target Cap Hit: $3.5-4.5M
Joe Thornton: Target Cap Hit: $1-4M
Marcus Sorensen: Target Cap Hit: $1.5-2.5M
Shovels: Target Cap Hit: $1.5-2.5M


RFAs:
Timo Meier: Target Cap Hit: $3.5-5.75M
Kevin Labanc: Target Cap Hit: $1.75-3.5M
Rourke Chartier: Target Cap Hit: $.75-.95M

Signed:
Brent Burns- $8M
Marc-Eduoard Vlasic- $7M
Justin Braun- $3.8M
Brenden Dillon- $3.27M
Radek Simek- $.675M

UFA:
Erik Karlsson Target Cap Hit: $10.5-12M
Tim Heed Target Cap Hit: $0.9-1.2M

RFA:
Joakim Ryan: Target Cap Hit: $.8-1.2M

Signed:
Martin Jones- $5.75M
Aaron Dell- $1.9M
Anton Bibeau- $.675M

Notable UFAs:
Artemi Panarin: Target Cap Hit: $10-12M
Matt Duchene: Target Cap Hit: $8-10M
Marc Stone: Target Cap Hit: $7.5-9M

$83M

Who stays, who leaves, who is traded, and how do we upgrade the team? Wilson can open a whole new window this summer if he knocks it out of the park, but the margin is razor thin.
Players that I don't think come back:
Antti Suomela (leaves as UFA)
Tim Heed (leaves as UFA)
Justin Braun or Brendan Dillon(trade)
Joe Thornton (retires)
Melker Karlsson (fired into the sun)

Players that I'm on the fence about:
Erik Karlsson (depends on what he wants)

How I see our lines next year with no other additions (except the trade)

Hertl-Cooch-Meier
Donskoi-Pav-Kane
Labanc-Trade-Sorenson
Goodrow-True-Chartier

Ryan/Simek-Burns
Vlasic-Karlsson/replacement
Simek/Ryan-Braun
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,360
25,417
Fremont, CA
Just looking at some numbers, I’m now convinced that Timo Meier just needs more PP TOI to be a 40 goal scorer.

34 goals in his last 82 games, and only 6 of those came on the power play.

20 players in the NHL scored at least 12 power play goals last year, so it’s not unrealistic to suggest he could score 12 on the PP. He has the talent to be top-10
in even strength goals and top-20 in goals.

Since the start of 2017-2018, Meier has played 161:46 on the power play. His 2.23 PPG/60 ranks 4th in San Jose behind Hertl, Boedker, Thornton. The only other Sharks with above 1.5 PPG/60 are Couture and Pavelski; both of whom have played over twice as many minutes on the PP as Meier.

65 other NHL players have played at least 100 minutes on the PP and scored at a higher PPG/60 rate, so I doubt that his rate is unsustainably high. If anything, it may be unsustainably low, since he’s now scoring at 3.09 PPG/60 this year.

His even strength goal rates will probably drop a little bit from what they’re currently at but if he gets a little more PP time, he could hit 40.
 
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