2018-2019 Roster Discussion - Official Roster is In

[Heldig]

Coyotes have such intriguing stats:

Shot Attempt Differential (Corsi): 4th in NHL (+78)

Unblocked Shot Attempt Differential (Fenwick): 4th in NHL (+45)

Shots Against per game: 2nd in NHL (23.3)

Shots For per game: 5th in NHL (36.5)

Faceoff Percentage: 5th in NHL (53.3)

Goals Against per game: 4th in NHL (2.25)

Looks good right? Possession indicators are very strong. Incredibly strong.

Goals For per game: 31st in NHL (0.50)

What in the actual ****?

So are they good or not? Great system being executed well but lack of talent? Other than Keller and, potentially Strome, every player is probably playing at least 1 line above his talent level.

 

[hbk]

Leafs are nowhere near Cap hell. It gets a little tight next year but still easily doable. The following year Marleau comes off the books.

Marner is going to get 8-9. Nylander wants 8 as well. But what do I know.

 

[hbk]

So are they good or not? Great system being executed well but lack of talent? Other than Keller and, potentially Strome, every player is probably playing at least 1 line above his talent level.

It’s Pittsburfg’s System executed by a bunch of 3rd liners.

I actually enjoy watching this style. I do think they need to tweak the looks to make the goalie move more laterally to open up better scoring chances. Overall though as frustrating as the results are this team is likely the best it’s looked in years.

 

[rt]

It’s Pittsburfg’s System executed by a bunch of 3rd liners.

I actually enjoy watching this style. I do think they need to tweak the looks to make the goalie move more laterally to open up better scoring chances. Overall though as frustrating as the results are this team is likely the best it’s looked in years.

Great post.

 

[hbk]

Warming up to the idea of Perlini for Ritchie. What's that extension look like? Kypreos said Ducks offered him a take it or leave it 3-yr extension. No word on the dollars though.

Perlini is frustrating. Right now he looks offensively confused. That being said his upside to me is Wheeler. I’m tempted to ride out the growing pains but a trip or two to the press box may be in order.

 

[RufusG]

Coyotes have such intriguing stats:

Shot Attempt Differential (Corsi): 4th in NHL (+78)

Unblocked Shot Attempt Differential (Fenwick): 4th in NHL (+45)

Shots Against per game: 2nd in NHL (23.3)

Shots For per game: 5th in NHL (36.5)

Faceoff Percentage: 5th in NHL (53.3)

Goals Against per game: 4th in NHL (2.25)

Looks good right? Possession indicators are very strong. Incredibly strong.

Goals For per game: 31st in NHL (0.50)

What in the actual ****?

So it begs the question is whether our shooting % (or lack thereof) is a fluke, or are the 2018 Coyotes the exception that disproves the rule of fancy stats?

 

[Jamieh]

Marner is going to get 8-9. Nylander wants 8 as well. But what do I know.

Nylander wants is the key, he isn't getting that from Toronto. It will start with a 6 or he either won't play or will sign elsewhere.

 

[lanky]

Nylander wants is the key, he isn't getting that from Toronto. It will start with a 6 or he either won't play or will sign elsewhere.

So any team could offer him $7x7 and pay the leafs a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Seems like a no brainer for a strong team looking to get stronger.

 

[hbk]

Nylander wants is the key, he isn't getting that from Toronto. It will start with a 6 or he either won't play or will sign elsewhere.

I don’t know. I think the Draisaitl contract changed everything. Dec deadline looms large.

 

[Jamieh]

So any team could offer him $7x7 and pay the leafs a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Seems like a no brainer for a strong team looking to get stronger.

And the Leafs would match, and possibly trade him when they need to. They won't be giving up an asset for little. That's part of the reason offer sheets just don't work. If Nylander us above 7 I doubt his future is in Toronto, he is too far down the depth chart for that Cap hit.

 

[Jamieh]

I don’t know. I think the Draisaitl contract changed everything. Dec deadline looms large.

And Pasternak doesn't count?? One bad contract doesn't have to be the comparable. FTR Draisaitl has proven he can play center and his point totals start with a 7. I like Nylander but when you barely score 20 goals riding shotgun for Matthews asking for $8 million is nuts.

 

[Heldig]

Perlini is frustrating. Right now he looks offensively confused. That being said his upside to me is Wheeler. I’m tempted to ride out the growing pains but a trip or two to the press box may be in order.

It took Wheeler, what, 6 seasons before he became a top line player. Not many teams can/do wait that long.

 

[hbk]

The 8.8% cap hit Pasternak signed is now a $7M cap hit per season.

 

[Jamieh]

The 8.8% cap hit Pasternak signed is now a $7M cap hit per season.

I don't care about percentage.

Edit: and forgot to add Nylander isn't as good as Pasternak so a Cap hit starting with a 6 is where we are, Nylander is getting bad advice.

 

[hbk]

It took Wheeler, what, 6 seasons before he became a top line player. Not many teams can/do wait that long.

Wheeler was basically written off entirely as a top prospect at the age Perlini is today. Wait and be rewarded or dump the asset and he ends up being a top 10 player in the game. It’s the same argument with Strome. Cater the style to suit the players you have or force your players into a system that doesn’t suit everyones skill set. I cringed last night when I saw Perlini carrying the puck into the zone. It was like watching Niagra all over again. He’s a trigger man.

 

[hbk]

I don't care about percentage.

Agents do. Arbitrators do. Players do.

 

[Jamieh]

Agents do. Arbitrators do. Players do.

Arbitrator is irrelevant, and Nylander has zero leverage to get more money if he wants to be a Leaf.

 

[hbk]

Arbitrator is irrelevant, and Nylander has zero leverage to get more money if he wants to be a Leaf.

I don’t think Nylander has any loyalty to Toronto.

His father wasn’t exactly shy about going to the highest bidder.

He’ll hold out until Dec. sign a 2 year deal that is back end loaded and takes him to arbitration rights. We’ve seen this play out before.

 

[Jamieh]

I don’t think Nylander has any loyalty to Toronto.

His father wasn’t exactly shy about going to the highest bidder.

He’ll hold out until Dec. sign a 2 year deal that is back end loaded and takes him to arbitration rights. We’ve seen this play out before.

I'd be willing to bet the Leafs are never signing him to that deal. He isn't leaving for nothing, Dubas is smarter than that. I think???

 

[hbk]

I'd be willing to bet the Leafs are never signing him to that deal. He isn't leaving for nothing, Dubas is smarter than that. I think???

I’ll take the 2 year deal bet. Still remains a RFA under that scenario though. I think the leafs r trying to get him for long term at $6 which considering that Marner and Matthews are going to be making almost double that within a year I don’t blame him for waiting to get a short-term deal that gives him arbitration rights.

 

[rt]

So it begs the question is whether our shooting % (or lack thereof) is a fluke, or are the 2018 Coyotes the exception that disproves the rule of fancy stats?

Wouldn’t be ironic if Chayka’s team was the edge case?

 

[Jamieh]

I’ll take the 2 year deal bet. Still remains a RFA under that scenario though. I think the leafs r trying to get him for long term at $6 which considering that Marner and Matthews are going to be making almost double that within a year I don’t blame him for waiting to get a short-term deal that gives him arbitration rights.

You first post said back end loaded, that part I don't see happening. I also don't see the Leafs putting contract in arbitrators hands when Matthews could gain Nylander a ton of points.

 

[hbk]

You first post said back end loaded, that part I don't see happening. I also don't see the Leafs putting contract in arbitrators hands when Matthews could gain Nylander a ton of points.

Last year in a 2 year deal starts with a number high than 6.

 

[Jamieh]

Last year in a 2 year deal starts with a number high than 6.

Zero chance, if Nylander signs for two years last year will start with a 4. Wonder if we shoukd be in the Nylander offer sheet thread???

 

[RufusG]

Wouldn’t be ironic if Chayka’s team was the edge case?

Ironic, yes, surprising, maybe not. Possession and shots are only proxies for goals until they're not. The Yotes are obviously exercising some of the connecting factors, time and more data will tell which ones.