2018-2019 General Lightning Discussion - Part 2

[Stormbreaker]

 

[hagg18]

One last one, just for fun...

Let's compare our pairs with the rest of the League! TOI minimum filter is now set at 149 minutes together.

Well, well, the Hedman/Strålman pairing is the only one on the Lightning to break into the top 12 pairs for this season even with their limited time together.

Just saying...

Kind of what I've been trying to say all season. Nice to see some stats that backs it up, even if it's stats and lies... The pairings should be pretty much set for the playoffs. Several players have the chance to step up in the playoffs and prove they should be given a new contract (Strals, Coburn, Girardi, Rutta) or a shot at top 4 min (Serg). Let's hope someone takes the chance and that we'll have a great run.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I come in Peace ✌

Heard on the radio the other day that there is a stay at home Dman on your team that has been HUGE for your team this year.
Difficult to find with stats so I was curious if it’s Cernak or Coburn?
Just curious how your team values these two players.

Cernak

 

[DistantThunderRep]

BTW, I apologize for the above data dump but this is what happens when we have too long a break between games.

Is it Saturday yet???

I wonder if this question has been asked to you before? Or has occurred to anyone else on the Lightning Board.

Are you or have you been Dom's physics teacher at school?

If the answer is not sure, I think you need to start laying down HF hints and see if any kids pick up on it.

 

[TeslaCoilFan]

I wonder if this question has been asked to you before? Or has occurred to anyone else on the Lightning Board.

Are you or have you been Dom's physics teacher at school?

If the answer is not sure, I think you need to start laying down HF hints and see if any kids pick up on it.

Dom tried to ask where I taught once early on, but I refused to give details. It's still rare enough to be a female physics teacher, even in a large area like Tampa, that it wouldn't take too many clues for an HF poster to figure out where I teach. But this is my fun place to relax. Don't really want to mix work with fun aside from using hockey occasionally to illustrate physics concepts.

But, no, I am not nor have I ever been Dom's physics teacher. Of that I am sure.

BTW, part of why I enjoy poking through data is that, while my Bachelor's degree is in Physics, my Master's is in Information Science. Hence both my enjoyment of and skepticism for hockey's advanced stats.

I still remember seeing a RawCharge analysis where they indicated Girardi had a really good game because of his excellent shot differential, but it was the same game where the eye test showed that he was having a terrible game with a bunch of errors, two of which led directly to two Goals Against. It reminded me of the limitations of ANY statistics.

 

[Lolaimbot]

Dom tried to ask where I taught once early on, but I refused to give details. It's still rare enough to be a female physics teacher, even in a large area like Tampa, that it wouldn't take too many clues for an HF poster to figure out where I teach. But this is my fun place to relax. Don't really want to mix work with fun aside from using hockey occasionally to illustrate physics concepts.

But, no, I am not nor have I ever been Dom's physics teacher.

BTW, part of why I enjoy poking through data is that, while my Bachelor's degree is in Physics, my Master's is in Information Science. Hence both my enjoyment of and skepticism for hockey's advanced stats.

I still remember seeing a RawCharge analysis where they indicated Girardi had a really good game because of his excellent shot differential, but it was the same game where the eye test showed that he was having a terrible game with a bunch of errors, two of which led directly to two Goals Against. It reminded me of the limitations of ANY statistics.

If girardi makes an mistake in a forest and theres no advanced stat recording it did the mistake really happen?

 

[JoVel]

If girardi makes an mistake in a forest and theres no advanced stat recording it did the mistake really happen?

@Crabby Williams I think I found a friend for you.

 

[Steazy Doo]

@Crabby Williams I think I found a friend for you.

lel ur all my friends <3

 

[Rschmitz]

Gotta keep Hedman-Stralman together

 

[These Are The Days]

I propose a full blown heel turn if we win the Cup. This must be over a dozen threads questioning the legitimatacy of our accomplishments now.

Don't feed the haters cake. Feed em a puck to the mouth

 

[Stormbreaker]

 

[DFC]

This stood out to me:

Going a step further, Tampa Bay is overturning third period deficits like almost no team before. It’s a cliche, but very true that no lead is safe against the Lightning.

I think that's us going from "coasting" to "grinding." We saw it in each of our last two games, although it didn't work out against the Blues.

I hate to say that comeback stat bodes well for us, for fear of The Jinx... But I mean, look at it.

 

[Master P]

This stood out to me:



I think that's us going from "coasting" to "grinding." We saw it in each of our last two games, although it didn't work out against the Blues.

I hate to say that comeback stat bodes well for us, for fear of The Jinx... But I mean, look at it.

FLIP IT!!!

 

[Krewe]

Had a thought today, I know this was rumored earlier but didn't happen, but what are the odds of us ever getting Panarin? We know he is friends with Vasy and Kuch. What would we have to give up to get him (not necessarily in a trade, but in cap space)? We aren't very deep on the LW (or rather, we have a bunch of decent guys but no great guys over there). It's probably a pipe dream but just wondering if there is even a chance.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

 

[God King Fudge]

Had a thought today, I know this was rumored earlier but didn't happen, but what are the odds of us ever getting Panarin? We know he is friends with Vasy and Kuch. What would we have to give up to get him (not necessarily in a trade, but in cap space)? We aren't very deep on the LW (or rather, we have a bunch of decent guys but no great guys over there). It's probably a pipe dream but just wondering if there is even a chance.

I think he wants to get paid and probably isn't all that likely to take a discount.

Bread seems like a guy who cares just as much about the lifestyle and location as he does about winning. Guys like Kucherov who clearly put winning above all else are more likely to make it work for a team.

 

[God King Fudge]

I've been really hard on Callahan, but the way he's handled this season has made me love the guy. A true professional.

 

[These Are The Days]

Had a thought today, I know this was rumored earlier but didn't happen, but what are the odds of us ever getting Panarin? We know he is friends with Vasy and Kuch. What would we have to give up to get him (not necessarily in a trade, but in cap space)? We aren't very deep on the LW (or rather, we have a bunch of decent guys but no great guys over there). It's probably a pipe dream but just wondering if there is even a chance.

I don't think we are done with Karlsson until he signs his extension with the SJS or goes elsewhere. I don't know how credible the rumor is that we had a deal and Melnyk KO'd it last minute but it was believable given that we had previously tried at him until the last minute at the TDL and took McDonagh over doing nothing. Point's success all seems to have ended our chances at Karlsson but I do think it's far more likely we offer him a deal on July 1st than Panarin because we have 3 UFA defensemen who are slowly wearing down.

The only truth I know is if Point's camp doesn't budge on a certain figure we can count ourselves out of both Karlsson AND Panarin. The good news is Miller's still value hasn't taken any sort of big hit and Callahan's value has increased tenfold. We will be fine at forward without them if Palat ever returns to form. So Point's camp can hold as firm as they want and we'll be okay provided Miller and Callahan move.

I do think Panarin is plan B if we are still looking for a BIG fish

 

[CupsOverCash]

I don't think we are done with Karlsson until he signs his extension with the SJS or goes elsewhere. I don't know how credible the rumor is that we had a deal and Melnyk KO'd it last minute but it was believable given that we had previously tried at him until the last minute at the TDL and took McDonagh over doing nothing. Point's success all seems to have ended our chances at Karlsson but I do think it's far more likely we offer him a deal on July 1st than Panarin because we have 3 UFA defensemen who are slowly wearing down.

The only truth I know is if Point's camp doesn't budge on a certain figure we can count ourselves out of both Karlsson AND Panarin. The good news is Miller's still value hasn't taken any sort of big hit and Callahan's value has increased tenfold. We will be fine at forward without them if Palat ever returns to form. So Point's camp can hold as firm as they want and we'll be okay provided Miller and Callahan move.

I do think Panarin is plan B if we are still looking for a BIG fish

My thing with Karlsson and what keeps my slim hope alive is that he supposedly wanted to come here as his top choice. From what I heard from my source was he would be here now if their owner didn't nix the deal. If Karlsson still feels the same way, I can almost guarantee he will come in for a visit to see if we can fit him in. I am in the camp that we likely dont sign him because of what we would have to do to fit him in, I just wouldnt be surprised if we did. If a guy like Karlsson is wanting to join your team you try to make it happen.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

We'd likely be looking at losing 3D, replacing with Karlsson, and then need young kids to fill in the gaps. Maybe even 4, just forgot about Ruuta.

13.45m in cap on the blueline that comes off at the end of the year could pay for EK in the short term, but you've got to eventually move other money out. Point is going to want and get a chunk of that 13 million.

 

[These Are The Days]

Well keep in mind, Karlsson was contingent on Point signing for something like $6-7 million and I don't think that's happening now. He's gonna get Stamkos money. I just don't see how he won't. Karlsson or Panarin required some kind of miracle on Point's contract almost no matter what and I'll be as surprised as anyone if we get it.

I hate to say it but I think we lost our Brayden Point Christmas in July miracle. But if we get it...... yeah it's not impossible to even call Karlsson and pitch some realistic offer barring a few more trades at forward.

But truth is we're probably losing any 2 of Girardi, Stralman and Coburn almost no matter what here. It makes Panarin seem less likely. The most realistic option and path of least resistance is that we let Coburn and Girardi walk and we keep Stralman for cheap while we give Point his rightfully earned contract.

Hedman-Stralman
McDonagh-Cernak
Sergachev-Foote?????

But that of course, raises the question of if Stralman can still handle those minutes. But gun to my head right now to make me choose who to keep it's him simply because I know he's capable right now. The deal will HAVE TO be short term and I have to imagine Stralman's camp will want to exchange term for AAV

Fact is Karlsson to Tampa is given credence by rumors and that there will undoubtedly be holes at the defensive position in the months to come.

I cannot even fathom a world in where we win the Stanley Cup and then follow it with the biggest pipedream this organization has ever had by signing Karlsson.

But that dream is fun though

 

[DFC]

We'd likely be looking at losing 3D, replacing with Karlsson, and then need young kids to fill in the gaps. Maybe even 4, just forgot about Ruuta.

13.45m in cap on the blueline that comes off at the end of the year could pay for EK in the short term, but you've got to eventually move other money out. Point is going to want and get a chunk of that 13 million.

Does that take into account Kucherov and McDonagh's raises? Karlsson doesn't seem very likely to me anymore, given how it would take a ton of money moves even before Point exploded into a top-10 scorer.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Karlsson is a pipe dream for us. Unless we move out Miller, Cally, Palat/Gourde. If Palat was willing to waive, he would be a nice addition for a team who is willing to take on Cally too. But looking at those pieces, it's unrealistic to move that much salary without taking some back and the problem would be we would need the relief immediately to sign Karlsson, not in a season where we could take an expiring contract.

Even if stars align and Point takes a massive discount on a bridge, we sign the rest of the rfa's for cheap, we move Cally and Miller, sign Karlsson, we still run into the issue of having to make room for Vasy and Serge's contracts, plus prepare for the Expansion draft.

 

[Rschmitz]

This years success has eliminated every possibility to get Karlsson, and I say that as the biggest cheerleader of doing whatever it took to get him. He'd need to take a 1 year deal or wait until we solved next years cost uncertainty by locking up the big 4 of Vasy, Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak. Neither are likely to occur.

 

[Stormbreaker]

We're better off trying to keep our guys instead of going after any big fishes.