2018-2019 General Lightning Discussion - Part 2

[The Macho King]

my source says that is untrue just buy in was tooo high is all....

and yes toronto overpaid probably but they need the help like we did i look at this as the adding stralman type of thing and yes I know how we got stralman as a ufa lol...

as far as coburn think he is pretty much done and why he gets extra time on bench or seems more the girardi gets. as far as playoffs? i want girardi for pk cause we gonna be taking penalties as always and we NEED to shut down that side for sure... I mean who would you rather have i one of our notorious periods coburn on pk who doesnt get puck out doesnt block tires out the line or girardi taking pucks off head to save goales? I will be glad when foote is our 7th next year

next the muzzin deal? to me toronto moved that much closer to equaling out us and we probably now have to send them home... think this move they might win a playoff series finally smdh. To stay ahead of them MOVING forward and compete for multiple cups cause of shut down etc.. dont want no one and dones here

I am desperately wanting karlsson here. Cause I honestly do NOT think toronto is done and I have a feeling they gonna do everything in their power to land a top D MAN in this league a subban type or heddy etc... a difference maker... and then imho fairly they will be sitting equally with us until vasy hits his hasek run that I pray for and is the difference.

they add a top 10 d man a number one I got them equal to us in ever category at this time...
that SUCKS and is scary to me

I just don't see where they have the space for another long-term player. With Matthews and Marner to re-sign and now Muzzin on the books, they're going to have to let Gardiner walk just to fit them in the cap as it is.

The only available player I can see going to Toronto would be a Pietrangelo-type, but the cost would a) be a lot, b) require a lot of pieces, and c) require them to move out a lot of money.

Using McDonagh as a benchmark for APie, you're talking a 1st + a 2nd + a recent first round pick + a recent second round pick - EXCEPT Pietrangelo is a righty and better. So on top of 2 1sts + 2 2nds, you're factoring in he's a better player. And now Toronto has already moved a first - are they willing to go without a first for three straight seasons?

If anything, I think they may add a forward. Say a Simmonds-type. And that's not the type of move that worries me. Them swinging for Pietrangelo? That worries me. Them moving for another 20 goal scorer? Meh. That would be wasted assets for them IMO because Simmonds isn't *that* better than replacement-level.

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[J T Money]

Its all gotta line up. Point will have to take a discount. We would have to move a couple of players. Might have to ask a player later to waive NTC. I dont know if we are willing to do that or not.

The expansion draft would probably take one of those NTC from us to free up cap further down the road.

Everything would have to line up perfectly for it to even be possible, starting with Point.

Overall, if Karlsson doesn't sign in San Jose, he's coming here and he'd easily have the biggest impact for the team out of any player available.

 

[Stormbreaker]

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Found this gem in the Muzzin trade thread:

Okay dude, sure Tampa's is better on paper but I do believe that the Leafs defence is criminally underrated across these boards, Toronto's D isn't bad, its a capable core and like we've seen in the past 2 games the Leafs have played Tampa it didn't stop them from getting dominated by the Leafs, the first game shots were 50-19 for crying out loud, while yes regular season can be deemed irrelevant the stats suggest that the Leafs D is at the very least capable of winning a playoff round or two, which again is also dependent on offence and we know Toronto has a deadly one.

Toronto is a team capable of beating Tampa in a 7 game series, I think most knowledgable hockey fans would agree with that.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Found this gem in the Muzzin trade thread:

Dont disagree with any of that. Especially the "on paper" part.

 

[Lightning1995]

Bump so everyone uses this thread

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

I just don't see where they have the space for another long-term player. With Matthews and Marner to re-sign and now Muzzin on the books, they're going to have to let Gardiner walk just to fit them in the cap as it is.

The only available player I can see going to Toronto would be a Pietrangelo-type, but the cost would a) be a lot, b) require a lot of pieces, and c) require them to move out a lot of money.

Using McDonagh as a benchmark for APie, you're talking a 1st + a 2nd + a recent first round pick + a recent second round pick - EXCEPT Pietrangelo is a righty and better. So on top of 2 1sts + 2 2nds, you're factoring in he's a better player. And now Toronto has already moved a first - are they willing to go without a first for three straight seasons?

If anything, I think they may add a forward. Say a Simmonds-type. And that's not the type of move that worries me. Them swinging for Pietrangelo? That worries me. Them moving for another 20 goal scorer? Meh. That would be wasted assets for them IMO because Simmonds isn't *that* better than replacement-level.

Pietrangelo with Nylander as a base could work. Leafs would be selling low, but you'd have to figure they have a great shot at re-signing Pietrangelo, and then that would almost fully match contracts moving forward.

It would be pretty damn aggressive though. As you said, their prospects and picks probably aren't enough to entice St. Louis. If they could get Petro without Nylander, they could make it work with the cap. Marleau expiring + cap increases would cover his next contract likely.

 

[J T Money]

Pietrangelo with Nylander as a base could work. Leafs would be selling low, but you'd have to figure they have a great shot at re-signing Pietrangelo, and then that would almost fully match contracts moving forward.

It would be pretty damn aggressive though. As you said, their prospects and picks probably aren't enough to entice St. Louis. If they could get Petro without Nylander, they could make it work with the cap. Marleau expiring + cap increases would cover his next contract likely.

I think they would be all for sending Nylander to St Louis if it's for Pietrangelo. Essentially swap cap space to shore up their defense is a pretty decent trade.

 

[LightningStrikes]

I think they would be all for sending Nylander to St Louis if it's for Pietrangelo. Essentially swap cap space to shore up their defense is a pretty decent trade.

What value does Nylander even have these days? They would need to add in order to get Pietrangelo.

 

[These Are The Days]

What value does Nylander even have these days? They would need to add in order to get Pietrangelo.

I second this, Nylander has been absolutely horrible this year and you can tell his play has been affected by his holdout. You can do better than if you're St. Louis. For crying out loud Jones got Johansen. There should be no rush on the Blues end.

 

[J T Money]

What value does Nylander even have these days? They would need to add in order to get Pietrangelo.

I second this, Nylander has been absolutely horrible this year and you can tell his play has been affected by his holdout. You can do better than if you're St. Louis. For crying out loud Jones got Johansen. There should be no rush on the Blues end.

I agree 100% that his value has dropped significantly. I thought his contract was crazy high (should be something near 5m).

I was thinking they send Nylander and 2020 first + whatever else to make it worthwhile for St. Louis. I also think other teams would beat that package regardless.

 

[Lightning1995]

Lightning are being embarrassed.

Oh well, just one game after a long break.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Dont disagree with any of that. Especially the "on paper" part.

It was the "on paper" theme that has been quite heavily used lately around here.

I completely agree with you. I would favour our chances in a best-of-7 insomuch that I would favour our chances against anyone in a best-of-7 because I think we have the best team, but Toronto can absolutely beat us if we match up without it being too much of an upset. The biggest x-factor I'm keying in on come April is with our coaching staff; I think that, with that anchor known as Rick Bowness cast off finally, that this is the best staff we've had during Cooper's regime. Coaching plays up when you're playing the same team one game after another, and we all know about Babcock's prowess (and also Trotz's prowess, something that may very well matter if the Islanders finish in that second wild card position). I think we match up better there now than we have before, but, we won't know for certain one way or another until the time comes.

On the topic of Will Nylander - I think what we need to remember is that he didn't have a proper NHL training camp coming into this season. Was he doing workouts and drills during his holdout? Of course, but you can only simulate so much, and that's before you factor in the whole "not doing practices with his teammates" aspect of it. It's probably too late now for Nylander to rescue his rate statistics for this season, but I'm not sure how much I agree with the idea that his value has dropped by a considerable degree. It would be a bit of an overreaction to 21 games played in an unusual season versus his performance in the two seasons prior to this.

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

I just don't see where they have the space for another long-term player. With Matthews and Marner to re-sign and now Muzzin on the books, they're going to have to let Gardiner walk just to fit them in the cap as it is.

The only available player I can see going to Toronto would be a Pietrangelo-type, but the cost would a) be a lot, b) require a lot of pieces, and c) require them to move out a lot of money.

Using McDonagh as a benchmark for APie, you're talking a 1st + a 2nd + a recent first round pick + a recent second round pick - EXCEPT Pietrangelo is a righty and better. So on top of 2 1sts + 2 2nds, you're factoring in he's a better player. And now Toronto has already moved a first - are they willing to go without a first for three straight seasons?

If anything, I think they may add a forward. Say a Simmonds-type. And that's not the type of move that worries me. Them swinging for Pietrangelo? That worries me. Them moving for another 20 goal scorer? Meh. That would be wasted assets for them IMO because Simmonds isn't *that* better than replacement-level.

ya i see them interested in a true number one. At least they should be. Not sure they will get it...> Mcd got dropped into our laps its odd when those things happen lol

as far as toronto and this on paper stuff lol

they still got to win a playoff series to be viewed as a legit threat even lol.... I wouldnt guarantee it they have problems with boston.... so let them be cocky and want to face us and get beat up by boston etc... we will be ready hopefully...

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

I mean, we went from getting swept by Montréal in the first round to being within two wins of the Cup a year later (and going backwards since...), point being that, if the talent, leadership, and coaching is there, you can make the jump from first round cannon fodder to legit Cup threat one year to the next without really being an eye-opening development.

Question simply is whether Toronto has those components of high enough quality. They obviously don't quite think so yet, but they're working on it.

 

[Todd1a]

ya i see them interested in a true number one. At least they should be. Not sure they will get it...> Mcd got dropped into our laps its odd when those things happen lol

as far as toronto and this on paper stuff lol

they still got to win a playoff series to be viewed as a legit threat even lol.... I wouldnt guarantee it they have problems with boston.... so let them be cocky and want to face us and get beat up by boston etc... we will be ready hopefully...

There is no question they have improved since last playoffs Muzzin and JT were added since then. I do they they win a cup within the next three years just so much talent there now and I think they will add another defenseman at the deadline.

 

[BowDownToVasilevskiy]

Dreger on Lightning trade options

Dreger says we've asked about Ferland and Simmonds

 

[Lord Stan 2020]

cernak joseph martel all told to get own pads all staying for duration

per cooper
callahan is part of the forward rotation so will have to miss games... not injury related

so he is gone maybe after the cup but this is the end of cally....

is kinda sad hes a good guy tries his butt off and brought us a lot of others

as per the ferland thing or simmonds im ok with that but would prefer to go after kevin hayes myself

 

[DFC]

I think Ferland would be a mistake. Simmonds makes a little bit of sense, but I don't want to pay the massive price he's likely to get.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Yeah I think we're set on left wing. I like Ferland but he's not an upgrade on any of Palat/Gourde/Joseph/Miller/Killorn. Does he bring something that neither of those guys bring? Sure, but at what cost? We also have Erne this year.

Simmonds is pretty meh for me. He's not really in the weight class I imagined adding to our bottom-six, and we don't really need his scoring. And as DFC said, he's too expensive.

 

[DFC]

Yeah I think we're set on left wing. I like Ferland but he's not an upgrade on any of Palat/Gourde/Joseph/Miller/Killorn. Does he bring something that neither of those guys bring? Sure, but at what cost? We also have Erne this year.

Simmonds is pretty meh for me. He's not really in the weight class I imagined adding to our bottom-six, and we don't really need his scoring. And as DFC said, he's too expensive.

I see Ferland as pretty similar to Miller. Or maybe even like a better version of Killorn. He has size, but doesn't use it the way he's rumored to (IMO), and I could classify him more of a big finesse player who hits sometimes than a power forward. It's been a while since I've watched Carolina, but I don't see him driving the net like a Chris Kreider or anything. I just don't think he adds a huge dynamic to us. I think we're physical enough, but not necessarily physical enough in scoring areas. I'd rather give Erne the experience than roadblock him with a guy who's a better version of the same thing. If I thought Ferland was a sure-thing to crack our top-six, it'd be different, but I could just as easily see him ending up on our 4th line. Probably 3rd, but I think it's a gamble to think he can take Killorn's spot. Maybe, but not definitely.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

I see Ferland as pretty similar to Miller. Or maybe even like a better version of Killorn. He has size, but doesn't use it the way he's rumored to (IMO), and I could classify him more of a big finesse player who hits sometimes than a power forward. It's been a while since I've watched Carolina, but I don't see him driving the net like a Chris Kreider or anything. I just don't think he adds a huge dynamic to us. I think we're physical enough, but not necessarily physical enough in scoring areas. I'd rather give Erne the experience than roadblock him with a guy who's a better version of the same thing. If I thought Ferland was a sure-thing to crack our top-six, it'd be different, but I could just as easily see him ending up on our 4th line. Probably 3rd, but I think it's a gamble to think he can take Killorn's spot. Maybe, but not definitely.

He's definitely a guy who will throw his weight around and win battles when the playoffs roll around. I still have that Vancouver series from 2015 in the back of my head, he was such a game changer on that top line.

I just don't know where to put him. Don't want to waste him on the 4th line, I agree that Ferland could be better than Killorn, but Killer has worked well with Cirelli this year.

 

[BowDownToVasilevskiy]

He's definitely a guy who will throw his weight around and win battles when the playoffs roll around. I still have that Vancouver series from 2015 in the back of my head, he was such a game changer on that top line.

I just don't know where to put him. Don't want to waste him on the 4th line, I agree that Ferland could be better than Killorn, but Killer has worked well with Cirelli this year.

Yeah, that 2015 Vancouver series was great for him. Might be the only one who is interested in Ferland more than Simmonds at this point.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

So if Tampa added a forward who would sit out? As it stands currently cally is most likely sitting for Erne?

 

[DFC]

So if Tampa added a forward who would sit out? As it stands currently cally is most likely sitting for Erne?

We'd rotate forwards and play whoever's hot in the playoffs, I think. Adding a forward could push Callahan out of the lineup on a regular basis, unless our PK starts to suffer. But I kind of think we'll have Point back on the PK by playoff time.