2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread

[Kaako Kappo]

We are the reverse St Louis Blues:

Feels bad man

Somehow this is because of Laine and his 5 goal night.

 

[cbcwpg]

Posted this in another thread.

Just some numbers, but not claiming the reason why.

Last season 42% of the Jets wins came when we were out-shot.

This season 62% of the Jets wins have come when being out-shot.

 

[garret9]

Posted this in another thread.

Just some numbers, but not claiming the reason why.

Last season 42% of the Jets wins came when we were out-shot.

This season 62% of the Jets wins have come when being out-shot.

Yes, that is part of a function of:
1) The team outshoots less often
2) Goaltending
3) Special teams

The goal differential at 5v5 in negative Corsi games: -8 (54% GF%)
The goal differential at 5v5 in plus Corsi games: +11 (47% GF%)

 

[WPGChief]

is there a stat/resource that looks at a player's quality of passing in terms of chances create or anything like that?

Closest at the moment (in terms of public work) is courtesy of Corey Sznajder and visualized by CJ Turtoro: Tableau Public

You can support Corey yourself through his Patreon and get access directly to the data yourself. Unfortunately there's really not much for the Jets at the moment - only about 18 games tracked, the latest game being 12/18/2018. Quick snapshot for example: in terms of shot contributions (i.e. shots taken and passes that lead to shots), your top 3 is Ehlers, Laine, and Lowry, followed by Roslovic, Scheifele, and Little (with not much difference between the middle 5).

Upcoming tracking data should start to capture this, but who knows how much of it will be released to the public. At the very least, it will make current data incredibly more accurate than what we have now. At least, that's the hope.

 

[DRW204]

Closest at the moment (in terms of public work) is courtesy of Corey Sznajder and visualized by CJ Turtoro: Tableau Public

You can support Corey yourself through his Patreon and get access directly to the data yourself. Unfortunately there's really not much for the Jets at the moment - only about 18 games tracked, the latest game being 12/18/2018. Quick snapshot for example: in terms of shot contributions (i.e. shots taken and passes that lead to shots), your top 3 is Ehlers, Laine, and Lowry, followed by Roslovic, Scheifele, and Little (with not much difference between the middle 5).

Upcoming tracking data should start to capture this, but who knows how much of it will be released to the public. At the very least, it will make current data incredibly more accurate than what we have now. At least, that's the hope.

yea ive seen that before, trying to find something with more relevant data

 

[garret9]

yea ive seen that before, trying to find something with more relevant data

With public data the best you could do is look at how a player impacts linemate xG/Fenwick, whole removig their own shots.

 

[Whileee]

Maurice mentioned that Beaulieau's play led to good secondary passes to move the puck out of the zone. Sounded like something they might track. If you give your D partner a bad pass, or with poor timing, it can make it harder for them to move the puck cleanly. I think that's what he was getting at. Stuart might have been the very worst at that. Myers can have a real problem with that too because he hesitated. Chiarot doesn't hesitate but makes bad choices. Niku looks like a dream to play with, as is Morrissey.

 

[DRW204]

traditional +/- vs 5v5 +/-

Myers goes from a +9 to -7 (according to NSS)/-9 (according to OffSideReview.) I think he's the biggest variation on the team

 

[JetsFan815]

Since Jan 1st, we have the 2nd worst xGoal differential in the league according to Evolving Hockey's xGoal model:

To put it into context, the following teams have been closest to posting -0.53 Expected Goals per game over the course of a season.

Team	Season	xGDiff per game	Draft Position
Islanders	08-09	-0.51	1st Overall
Kings	07-08	-0.51	2nd Overall
Avalanche	15-16	-0.52	10th Overall
Oilers	13-14	-0.55	3rd Overall
Sabres	12-13	-0.55	8th Overall
Thrashers	07-08	-0.55	3rd Overall

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For all intents and purposes, in the 2019 Calendar year, we have been a lottery team posting stats similar to some very bad hockey teams.

 

[10Ducky10]

I

Since Jan 1st, we have the 2nd worst xGoal differential in the league according to Evolving Hockey's xGoal model:

To put it into context, the following teams have been closest to posting -0.53 Expected Goals per game over the course of a season.

Team	Season	xGDiff per game	Draft Position
Islanders	08-09	-0.51	1st Overall
Kings	07-08	-0.51	2nd Overall
Avalanche	15-16	-0.52	10th Overall
Oilers	13-14	-0.55	3rd Overall
Sabres	12-13	-0.55	8th Overall
Thrashers	07-08	-0.55	3rd Overall

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For all intents and purposes, in the 2019 Calendar year, we have been a lottery team posting stats similar to some very bad hockey teams.

I see the best team in the league is 17?

 

[JetsFan815]

I

I see the best team in the league is 17?

That was not including today's game for Tampa, today's game help them push up 2 spots to around 14th. Tampa has been fairly average and 5 on 5 since Jan 1st compared to their first 3 months of the season. They have benefited from a hot PP and league best save % and league best PDO since Jan 1.

 

[10Ducky10]

I am more of a points guy...Jets aren't doing too bad in that department.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I am more of a points guy...Jets aren't doing too bad in that department.

I think Jetsfan815 is more concerned about what to expect in the future.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Since Jan 1st, we have the 2nd worst xGoal differential in the league according to Evolving Hockey's xGoal model:

To put it into context, the following teams have been closest to posting -0.53 Expected Goals per game over the course of a season.

Team	Season	xGDiff per game	Draft Position
Islanders	08-09	-0.51	1st Overall
Kings	07-08	-0.51	2nd Overall
Avalanche	15-16	-0.52	10th Overall
Oilers	13-14	-0.55	3rd Overall
Sabres	12-13	-0.55	8th Overall
Thrashers	07-08	-0.55	3rd Overall

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For all intents and purposes, in the 2019 Calendar year, we have been a lottery team posting stats similar to some very bad hockey teams.

Yes but over the larger sample of a full season, no where near the likes of those hockey teams. We have defintely seen the impact of losing some key possession drivers like Ehlers, Buff and Morrissey since Jan 1.

I'm a bit curious about the xGFdiff of -.28/60 versus the actual of +.09/60. Off the top of my head our PDO has been fairly neutral and if above 100, more so due to sv%.

 

[Maukkis]

Good teams do overperform relative to their goal expectations. That is called talent.

The fact that we are second last according to the best predictor of future team success should be ringing all the alarm bells imaginable. This team is playing like shit and will get bounced out of the playoffs the second Hellebuyck or Brossoit have bad games. As it is, the skaters are not able to bail out their goaltenders at all.

 

[Sperss1997]

Closest at the moment (in terms of public work) is courtesy of Corey Sznajder and visualized by CJ Turtoro: Tableau Public

You can support Corey yourself through his Patreon and get access directly to the data yourself. Unfortunately there's really not much for the Jets at the moment - only about 18 games tracked, the latest game being 12/18/2018. Quick snapshot for example: in terms of shot contributions (i.e. shots taken and passes that lead to shots), your top 3 is Ehlers, Laine, and Lowry, followed by Roslovic, Scheifele, and Little (with not much difference between the middle 5).

Upcoming tracking data should start to capture this, but who knows how much of it will be released to the public. At the very least, it will make current data incredibly more accurate than what we have now. At least, that's the hope.

Holy cow. Ehlers look great in those statistics
Compared to W. Nylander. And Nylander's stats are pretty awesome!

 

[Gil Fisher]

Good teams do overperform relative to their goal expectations. That is called talent.

To that end, Jets are 8th in the league in SCSH% and 10th in SCSV%. (shooting and save percentage on scoring chances)

 

[Saidin]

It just seems all year, we've had excuses for their playing bad... Be it

- We played 4 in 6
- We are saving it for the playoffs
- We are missing key pieces
- We blame the line setup
- We blame the coach
- etc.

All I know is I don't have ANY confidence in this team doing anything this year. They need to get their shit together (All of them) and now to change that opinion.

 

[Gil Fisher]

It just seems all year, we've had excuses for their playing bad... Be it

- We played 4 in 6
- We are saving it for the playoffs
- We are missing key pieces
- We blame the line setup
- We blame the coach
- etc.

All I know is I don't have ANY confidence in this team doing anything this year. They need to get their **** together (All of them) and now to change that opinion.

I think there are a few drivers:

1) Players (Blake) have admitted to conserving themselves to make it through the grind through to June. (the concern is they can't rediscover the 60-minute form of last year's home stretch)

2) Injuries to Buff, Ehlers and Morrissey have hampered their play over the past two months.

3) Missing the Toby-Buff pairing has really hampered our d-zone play from the second pairing perspective.

 

[Saidin]

I think there are a few drivers:

1) Players (Blake) have admitted to conserving themselves to make it through the grind through to June. (the concern is they can't rediscover the 60-minute form of last year's home stretch)

2) Injuries to Buff, Ehlers and Morrissey have hampered their play over the past two months.

3) Missing the Toby-Buff pairing has really hampered our d-zone play from the second pairing perspective.

Just hope they can come together at some time... Hard to feel confident though. But you make good points.

 

[Channelcat]

I am more of a points guy...Jets aren't doing too bad in that department.

I get that, but Jets are currently 9th overall only 3pts up a pack with a very tough schedule ahead. The trend is not good and the numbers seem to concur.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I get that, but Jets are currently 9th overall only 3pts up a pack with a very tough schedule ahead. The trend is not good and the numbers seem to concur.

Yeah, not sure why the "points" crowd are in the Advanced Stats thread except to troll, but the Jets are 6-7-2 in their last 15. That pace gets you into the lottery over a full season.

 

[Heldig]

Yeah, not sure why the "points" crowd are in the Advanced Stats thread except to troll, but the Jets are 6-7-2 in their last 15. That pace gets you into the lottery over a full season.

Yup. Been saying most of the season we were getting points despite the level of play. Lots going wrong this season. Injuries. Wicked slumps. Soft play. Bad penalties. Terrible D one coverage. Spotty special teams.

This team more resembles 2 or 3 seasons ago. Is it a blip? Just a really young team learning how to bring their A game consistently? I hope so. This HOPE that they turn it on is just that, HOPE. Rarely happens. They have not played the right way very often this season.

Some of the charts above are depressing.

 

[10Ducky10]

I get that, but Jets are currently 9th overall only 3pts up a pack with a very tough schedule ahead. The trend is not good and the numbers seem to concur.

The numbers should get better once our two defenseman are back and lurch is back.

 

[Ducky10]

I think there are a few drivers:

1) Players (Blake) have admitted to conserving themselves to make it through the grind through to June. (the concern is they can't rediscover the 60-minute form of last year's home stretch)

2) Injuries to Buff, Ehlers and Morrissey have hampered their play over the past two months.

3) Missing the Toby-Buff pairing has really hampered our d-zone play from the second pairing perspective.

I'm convinced they are making a concerted effort to save something, I see it in Wheeler's, Scheifele's and Lowry's game consistently, among others. Last season's balls to the wall style of play every game caught up with them in the WCF (as well as MAF).

I've seen them raise their level of play a number of times this year, as recently as last Friday. Helle seems to be raising his game significantly as well.

I have hope, the numbers suggest I probably shouldn't, but I still believe this team will show what it's made of when it counts most..