2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread

[garret9]

No, that just show how much variance influence results!
Although scoring talent may have something to say when you measure xG, I dont think it can make up for these numbers to justify a number one spot - or even make it good

Aye.

Every team thinks they are the exception.

Variance is huge.

Just looking at goal differential distribution and how often teams win against other teams, we expect the best team in the league to:
Only win the presidency cup about 33% of the time (once every 3 years)
Sit outside the top 5 about 30% of the time
Miss the playoffs 2% of the time (once every 50 years)
Eliminated in the first round once every four years.

And this is ignoring intangibles and psychological effects.

 

[garret9]

Jets are overperforming their xGoal so much by being 13th in the league in adjusted 5v5 goal differential (just a QoC and schedule adjustment).
And remember the middle is always more congested than the extrema.

 

[Whileee]

Jets are overperforming their xGoal so much by being 13th in the league in adjusted 5v5 goal differential (just a QoC and schedule adjustment).
And remember the middle is always more congested than the extrema.

Yup, there is a lot of play in the correlations if you take out the distribution tales, or at least reduce their weight. Have you seen any models (Corsi and/or xG) that take out the tails of the distribution? How robust are the models for the middle clumps.

 

[Halberdier]

Powerplay this year, with and without Laine.

View attachment 186333

Am I reading this chart right? If I am, odd that they chose "negative color" for positive result and "positive color" for negative result. Text is a bit blurry on my device.

Not a surprise that when you take off the threat (even if he is slumping) off it makes it much harder to others to find their scoring opportunity as your opponent don't need to cheat on one youngster anymore. Last playoffs while Laine didn't score much on PP, he made huge impact by just staying on the left dragging 1-2 opponents guarding him so Scheifele-Wheeler duo was able to score at will from the center.

 

[Sperss1997]

Am I reading this chart right? If I am, odd that they chose "negative color" for positive result and "positive color" for negative result. Text is a bit blurry on my device.

Not a surprise that when you take off the threat (even if he is slumping) off it makes it much harder to others to find their scoring opportunity as your opponent don't need to cheat on one youngster anymore. Last playoffs while Laine didn't score much on PP, he made huge impact by just staying on the left dragging 1-2 opponents guarding him so Scheifele-Wheeler duo was able to score at will from the center.

I think the reason for this is for the most part pp2 on ice, meaning, No Laine, no Wheeler, no scheif, no buff, no connor.

 

[Halberdier]

I think the reason for this is for the most part pp2 on ice, meaning, No Laine, no Wheeler, no scheif, no buff, no connor.

Except, this year Laine has been playing on PP2 too and was absent from PP1 for a while as a punishment. If PoMo is good at something, he is good at punishing the youngest guy on his team to make an example for... the veterans to get away with everything.

 

[Gm0ney]

Percentage change compared to last year:

CF/60	-3.62%​
CA/60	7.23%​
CF%	-5.06%​
HDCF/60	-5.56%​
HDCA/60	17.66%​
HDCA%	-10.29%​
xGF/60	-7.36%​
xGA/60	12.14%​
xGF%	-8.94%​
GF/60	-4.46%​
GA/60	8.14%​
GF%	-5.81%​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Less of everything good; more of everything bad.

Stats are 5v5 adjusted. xG from Corsica, everything else from Natural Stat Trick.

 

[Jimby]

With Corsica gone now does that mean expected goals is no more? Or is it available elsewhere?

 

[garret9]

Evolving Hockey

 

[JetsFan815]

Also MoneyPuck -NHL Analytics, Scores, Playoff Odds, & Stats

 

[Jimby]

Thank you.

 

[JetsFan815]

I have noticed in other threads people often bring up- "so and so team dominated the regular season and had elite corsi/xG but still didn't win the cup, therefore regular season results don't mean anything". Here's a list of where cup winners since 2008 ranked in 5 on 5 metrics in the regular season:

Season	Cup Winner	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
2008	Red Wings	1	1	1
2009	Penguins	19	13	5
2010	Blackhawks	1	1	3
2011	Bruins	12	19	1
2012	Kings	2	6	14
2013	Blackhawks	2	3	1
2014	Kings	1	3	3
2015	Chicago	2	14	8
2016	Penguins	3	1	4
2017	Penguins	13	4	4
2018	Capitals	23	25	10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With the exception of the Capitals last season, every team that has won the cup has been elite in atleast one of CF%, xGF% or GF% at 5 on 5. Most teams that have won the cup have been elite at 2 or all 3 of them. So while 5 on 5 shot (and actual goal) stats may produce false positives i.e the best team in these metrics may not win the cup, it rarely produces false negatives i.e a team that is mediocre or bad in these metrics winning the cup often.

Jets record so far this season, also compared to last season:

	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
Jets 2017-2018	5	2	3
Jets 2018-2019	16	22	15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I take no joy in posting this and say this with a heavy and depressed heart- last year we fit the profile of a typical cup contender- this year so far, not so much.

I hope they can right this ship in the next month or so.

 

[ps241]

I have noticed in other threads people often bring up- "so and so team dominated the regular season and had elite corsi/xG but still didn't win the cup, therefore regular season results don't mean anything". Here's a list of where cup winners since 2008 ranked in 5 on 5 metrics in the regular season:

Season	Cup Winner	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
2008	Red Wings	1	1	1
2009	Penguins	19	13	5
2010	Blackhawks	1	1	3
2011	Bruins	12	19	1
2012	Kings	2	6	14
2013	Blackhawks	2	3	1
2014	Kings	1	3	3
2015	Chicago	2	14	8
2016	Penguins	3	1	4
2017	Penguins	13	4	4
2018	Capitals	23	25	10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With the exception of the Capitals last season, every team that has won the cup has been elite in atleast one of CF%, xGF% or GF% at 5 on 5. Most teams that have won the cup have been elite at 2 or all 3 of them. So while 5 on 5 shot (and actual goal) stats may produce false positives i.e the best team in these metrics may not win the cup, it rarely produces false negatives i.e a team that is mediocre or bad in these metrics winning the cup often.

Jets record so far this season, also compared to last season:

	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
Jets 2017-2018	5	2	3
Jets 2018-2019	16	22	15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I take no joy in posting this and say this with a heavy and depressed heart- last year we fit the profile of a typical cup contender- this year so far, not so much.

I hope they can right this ship in the next month or so.

I could see a guy like Stone making a big difference in this category for the team. Then if the other guys wake the f*** up who knows?

 

[JetsFan815]

I could see a guy like Stone making a big difference in this category for the team. Then if the other guys wake the **** up who knows?

If we trade for Stone, we better hope so. Chevy has some tough decisions to make, I would not be having a lot of fun in his shoes right now. It's a very complicated deadline for him.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

I have noticed in other threads people often bring up- "so and so team dominated the regular season and had elite corsi/xG but still didn't win the cup, therefore regular season results don't mean anything". Here's a list of where cup winners since 2008 ranked in 5 on 5 metrics in the regular season:

Season	Cup Winner	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
2008	Red Wings	1	1	1
2009	Penguins	19	13	5
2010	Blackhawks	1	1	3
2011	Bruins	12	19	1
2012	Kings	2	6	14
2013	Blackhawks	2	3	1
2014	Kings	1	3	3
2015	Chicago	2	14	8
2016	Penguins	3	1	4
2017	Penguins	13	4	4
2018	Capitals	23	25	10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With the exception of the Capitals last season, every team that has won the cup has been elite in atleast one of CF%, xGF% or GF% at 5 on 5. Most teams that have won the cup have been elite at 2 or all 3 of them. So while 5 on 5 shot (and actual goal) stats may produce false positives i.e the best team in these metrics may not win the cup, it rarely produces false negatives i.e a team that is mediocre or bad in these metrics winning the cup often.

Jets record so far this season, also compared to last season:

	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
Jets 2017-2018	5	2	3
Jets 2018-2019	16	22	15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I take no joy in posting this and say this with a heavy and depressed heart- last year we fit the profile of a typical cup contender- this year so far, not so much.

I hope they can right this ship in the next month or so.

Thank you guys for digging up these stats and posting this.

This matches the eye test and what some of us have been saying for a month or so. This is not the year to be buyers. We don't have it - it's not our year. The truth can hurt at times, this is one of those times. Especially when it is easy to be homer blinded by our place in the standings.

I know that emotionally, it will be pretty difficult for Chevy not to pull the trigger on something this year. If he does (likely), I just hope it is a cheap option.

 

[ps241]

If we trade for Stone, we better hope so. Chevy has some tough decisions to make, I would not be having a lot of fun in his shoes right now. It's a very complicated deadline for him.

It is one of the most target rich enviorments of any deadline I can remember.......Stone Duchene and Panerin are talents that rarely hit rental markets. Then there is the usual stream of normal rentals below them. I fly to Arizona tomorrow then Chicago Sunday morning and I will be on the road for all of the craziness. Not sure what Chevy is going to do if prices get too crazy for Stone, Dutch, and bread man he may just slide into the pocket below and pick up Hayes and or other assets for a better bargains.

I would love to have Stone here long term but if not let’s see what we can drum up.

 

[Board Bard]

I have noticed in other threads people often bring up- "so and so team dominated the regular season and had elite corsi/xG but still didn't win the cup, therefore regular season results don't mean anything". Here's a list of where cup winners since 2008 ranked in 5 on 5 metrics in the regular season:

Season	Cup Winner	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
2008	Red Wings	1	1	1
2009	Penguins	19	13	5
2010	Blackhawks	1	1	3
2011	Bruins	12	19	1
2012	Kings	2	6	14
2013	Blackhawks	2	3	1
2014	Kings	1	3	3
2015	Chicago	2	14	8
2016	Penguins	3	1	4
2017	Penguins	13	4	4
2018	Capitals	23	25	10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With the exception of the Capitals last season, every team that has won the cup has been elite in atleast one of CF%, xGF% or GF% at 5 on 5. Most teams that have won the cup have been elite at 2 or all 3 of them. So while 5 on 5 shot (and actual goal) stats may produce false positives i.e the best team in these metrics may not win the cup, it rarely produces false negatives i.e a team that is mediocre or bad in these metrics winning the cup often.

Jets record so far this season, also compared to last season:

	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
Jets 2017-2018	5	2	3
Jets 2018-2019	16	22	15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I take no joy in posting this and say this with a heavy and depressed heart- last year we fit the profile of a typical cup contender- this year so far, not so much.

I hope they can right this ship in the next month or so.

Interesting post.

 

[Whileee]

I have noticed in other threads people often bring up- "so and so team dominated the regular season and had elite corsi/xG but still didn't win the cup, therefore regular season results don't mean anything". Here's a list of where cup winners since 2008 ranked in 5 on 5 metrics in the regular season:

Season	Cup Winner	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
2008	Red Wings	1	1	1
2009	Penguins	19	13	5
2010	Blackhawks	1	1	3
2011	Bruins	12	19	1
2012	Kings	2	6	14
2013	Blackhawks	2	3	1
2014	Kings	1	3	3
2015	Chicago	2	14	8
2016	Penguins	3	1	4
2017	Penguins	13	4	4
2018	Capitals	23	25	10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With the exception of the Capitals last season, every team that has won the cup has been elite in atleast one of CF%, xGF% or GF% at 5 on 5. Most teams that have won the cup have been elite at 2 or all 3 of them. So while 5 on 5 shot (and actual goal) stats may produce false positives i.e the best team in these metrics may not win the cup, it rarely produces false negatives i.e a team that is mediocre or bad in these metrics winning the cup often.

Jets record so far this season, also compared to last season:

	CF% Rank	xGF% Rank	GF% Rank
Jets 2017-2018	5	2	3
Jets 2018-2019	16	22	15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I take no joy in posting this and say this with a heavy and depressed heart- last year we fit the profile of a typical cup contender- this year so far, not so much.

I hope they can right this ship in the next month or so.

Jets have definitely had a "down" season compared to last year, but I don't think we should downplay the fact that they've been missing Buff and Ehlers since early January (and Laine has been slumping badly).

Until Buff / Ehlers were out, the Jets were #10 in CF% (now #16). I haven't been able to segment the season for xGF, but I think the Jets have been affected overall by the loss of two of their best play drivers on offense and defense.

I'm looking forward to a boost when Ehlers and Buff return.

Still, I think Maurice has gone away from some of the key strategies from last year, most notably playing Scheifele and Wheeler too much against top competition (instead of Lowry). CSW has been swamped too often by top opponents in their own zone, and it's showing up in their shot metrics, goal differentials and penalty differentials.

 

[Whileee]

Remember how Maurice was ridiculed for suggesting that it was hard to assess a goalie without considering the quality of defense in front of him?

 

[Jack722]

Jets have definitely had a "down" season compared to last year, but I don't think we should downplay the fact that they've been missing Buff and Ehlers since early January (and Laine has been slumping badly).

I mean, usually when teams are playing badly it's because their players are playing badly. I know what you mean though in that it seems uncharacteristic of Laine (hopefully).

I also think it's a huge problem in and of itself how much we rely on Ehlers. He's probably our best winger at the moment, but he still shouldn't be the difference between our top line being good and useless. Surely there is a line configuration where we're able to play decent hockey without Ehlers carrying our top line to huge minutes while the rest play down the lineup.

The truth is we haven't really had a single good lineup this year - outside of ridiculous PDO 4th - that didn't have Ehlers on it.

Still, I think Maurice has gone away from some of the key strategies from last year, most notably playing Scheifele and Wheeler too much against top competition (instead of Lowry). CSW has been swamped too often by top opponents in their own zone, and it's showing up in their shot metrics, goal differentials and penalty differentials.

For sure. Last year Lowry's line was monstrous and allowed us some seriously lopsided matchups for the rest of the team. CSW played more as a run and gun offense line. They're still playing that way and getting burned against better players.

 

[AKAChip]

I mean, usually when teams are playing badly it's because their players are playing badly. I know what you mean though in that it seems uncharacteristic of Laine (hopefully).

I also think it's a huge problem in and of itself how much we rely on Ehlers. He's probably our best winger at the moment, but he still shouldn't be the difference between our top line being good and useless. Surely there is a line configuration where we're able to play decent hockey without Ehlers carrying our top line to huge minutes while the rest play down the lineup.

The truth is we haven't really had a single good lineup this year - outside of ridiculous PDO 4th - that didn't kind of suck and didn't have Ehlers on it.

For sure. Last year Lowry's line was monstrous and allowed us some seriously lopsided matchups for the rest of the team. CSW played more as a run and gun offense line. They're still playing that way and getting burned against better players.

I completely agree that Wheeler and Scheifele play far too much in general let alone against top competition as they are not only clearly worn down, but also completely indifferent in our own end but I also don’t see a viable alternative. Lowry has been bad this year. He’s been his usual black hole offensively, but he’s in the negatives in shot and chance suppression as well. This team has two fourth lines and the bottom six has a significant lack of talent that’s become painfully clear in recent weeks.

As critical as a lot of us have been of Scheifele and Wheeler, and it’s all completely deserved, they are the only ones that can generate somewhat sustainable offence on this team. People assume that Lowry and Tanev can shut down the other team’s top players, but they haven’t done this since last season. I guess if both the Wheeler line and the Lowry line suck at preventing shots and goals, may as well rest Wheeler and Scheifele for easier matchups offensively since right now, scoring 5-on-5 is at least as much of an issue as keeping the puck out of the net. And no, relying on Tanev scoring fluke goals off the rush is not remotely sustainable offence.

 

[Gm0ney]

Remember how Maurice was ridiculed for suggesting that it was hard to assess a goalie without considering the quality of defense in front of him?

I believe that was Chevy we were ridiculing. And the Jets weren't worst-in-the-league defensively over those Pavelec years - they were middle of the pack. But Pavelec's numbers were bottom of the barrel. So I think in that context, the ridicule was rightly deserved.

Here's the Jets' 5v5 HDCA/60 history:
2011-12: 10.11, 14th best in NHL
2012-13: 11.08, 24th
2013-14: 10.47, 18th
2014-15: 9.35, 11th

2011-15 Average HDAC/60: 10.25, 17th best in the NHL. Pavelec's SV% over that period was .908...outside the Top 30 for starting goalies.

 

[DRW204]

is there a stat/resource that looks at a player's quality of passing in terms of chances create or anything like that?

 

[JetsFan815]

We are the reverse St Louis Blues:

Feels bad man

 

[DRW204]

We are the reverse St Louis Blues:

Feels bad man

even at their lowest STL wasn't as bad as us and they are considerably higher than us at the peak

posted this in the around the league thread:

STL

4th least in 5v5 shots allowed
5th least in 5v5 Corsi Allowed
2nd least in 5v5 HD CA

Our heat-map vs their's

i dont know if Binnington is some great talent, but they sure as heck are making his job easy