2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread

JetsFan815

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Jan 16, 2012
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For clarity: the end of the line with the abbreviation represents their last 25 games, whereas the 'tail' end represents the performance in their first 25.

Don't quite think all those people who have mentioned about this trend in GDTs and PGTs have been pulling **** out of their ass. We are trending down. Heck, even the first 25 weren't all that magical.

Since relocation to Winnipeg, Jets 2.0 have played 570 different 25 game stretches. Out of the all those 570 25 game stretches, this latest 25 game stretche ending with the Buffalo game is the 8th worst 25 game stretch in terms of xGoals in franchise history:

v3oK9NK.png


They have played some of their worst hockey (by their standards) in franchise history in this run. I don't think those raising alarm about this are being "ledge jumpers" or "emo".
 
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Neuf

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Dec 17, 2016
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Since relocation to Winnipeg, Jets 2.0 have played 570 different 25 game stretches. Out of the all those 570 25 game stretches, this latest 25 game stretche ending with the Buffalo game is the 8th worst 25 game stretch in terms of xGoals in franchise history:

v3oK9NK.png


They have played some of their worst hockey (by their standards) in franchise history in this run. I don't think those raising alarm about this are being "ledge jumpers" or "emo".
Haha oh man 2013.
 
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Whileee

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May 29, 2010
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Since relocation to Winnipeg, Jets 2.0 have played 570 different 25 game stretches. Out of the all those 570 25 game stretches, this latest 25 game stretche ending with the Buffalo game is the 8th worst 25 game stretch in terms of xGoals in franchise history:

v3oK9NK.png


They have played some of their worst hockey (by their standards) in franchise history in this run. I don't think those raising alarm about this are being "ledge jumpers" or "emo".
Funny how talent tends to counteract shot metrics. You could give 100 shot attempts to Wright or Tangradi or Burmi and they'd be lucky to score a few. Not all xG are equal.
 
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JetsFan815

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Funny how talent tends to counteract shot metrics. You could give 100 shot attempts to Wright or Tangradi or Burmi and they'd be lucky to score a few. Not all xG are equal.
Shooting talent is a real thing but it only gets you so far. Season by season the Jets GF% has outperformed their xGF% by:

16-17: -2.41
17-18: +2.79
18-19: +3.7


They have been 44.84% xGF% in the new year, if they don't right the ship on what's been going on with them lately, even that over-performance on xGF% won't help them as that hole would be too deep to shoot their way out of.
 

Halberdier

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May 14, 2016
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Shooting talent is a real thing but it only gets you so far. Season by season the Jets GF% has outperformed their xGF% by:

16-17: -2.41
17-18: +2.79
18-19: +3.7


They have been 44.84% xGF% in the new year, if they don't right the ship on what's been going on with them lately, even that over-performance on xGF% won't help them as that hole would be too deep to shoot their way out of.

Burmi GF% vs. Burmi xGF% is completely different thing that Jets GF% vs. Jets xGF%, as the latter is already average of 20+ people (weighted of course, but still average).

On averages it's not a surprise that GF tends to follow xGF, as shooting talent is (mostly) averaged out.

On individual level things are different. For example Jets has mythical corsi master Perreault that tends to lack on actual results when compared to his outstanding virtual stats. (Disclaimer: haven't check his stats for ages. I'm only using Perreault as an example).

Ps. I am not disputing that fact that this year xGF% looks awful for the Jets and is also visible on ice. Trends are important so when your xGF% as a team is trending down, that's not a good thing for sure.
 

PhilJets

Winnipeg is Good
Jun 24, 2012
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Since relocation to Winnipeg, Jets 2.0 have played 570 different 25 game stretches. Out of the all those 570 25 game stretches, this latest 25 game stretche ending with the Buffalo game is the 8th worst 25 game stretch in terms of xGoals in franchise history:

v3oK9NK.png


They have played some of their worst hockey (by their standards) in franchise history in this run. I don't think those raising alarm about this are being "ledge jumpers" or "emo".
Jets is to talented and have to much depth all around to lose many games.

Chevy assembled a pretty awesome team forr Maurice to coach.

Even if the Jets play bad they can win. They are that skilled.

Coach the other day gave it a 2 month timeline to hopefully get on track and get all the pieces together , wait thats the start of the playoff.

But if we are winning we should still be happy :)
Jets will win the cup with worst xgoals in the cup finals history ;)
 

Jimby

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Nov 5, 2013
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Not sure how this can be but Tanev played every shift last game with Lowry and while Lowry's 5 on 5 CF% was one of the best on the team Tanev's was one of the worst. What accounts for this?
 

Gil Fisher

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Mar 18, 2012
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Not sure how this can be but Tanev played every shift last game with Lowry and while Lowry's 5 on 5 CF% was one of the best on the team Tanev's was one of the worst. What accounts for this?

Just a couple of random changes on the fly where a cluster of shot events happened.
 

Whileee

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May 29, 2010
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Can't finish what you don't shoot.
Sure, but when we look at shot shares we are looking at many teams in the "mushy middle", where the differences are fractions to a couple of percentage points. If you are worse at finishing what you shoot, that negates some of those small shot share differences. As I've noted before, I remain somewhat skeptical about the accuracy and reliability of xG estimates based on shot locations / types, etc. I realize that it is somewhat robust in large samples, but with considerable "noise".

I've had season tickets and watched the large majority of all Jets games since 2011. There is absolutely no question in my mind that the team we have this season much more likely to win any given game, and to make a playoff run than any of the teams in the first 4-5 seasons. I remember the days of facing better teams and just knowing that only a heroic effort and/or an off night by the opponents would be necessary for the Jets to win. Now, even an off-night by the Jets will be good enough on many occasions. That's not just the "Pavelec effect". It's also the Wright, Burmi, Thorburn, Halischuk, Jokinen, Setoguchi, Tangradi, etc., etc. effetc.

But here is what the teams look like analytically... are this year's Jets really less of a threat than all previous years?

upload_2019-2-13_7-35-55.png
 
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Gil Fisher

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This Chiarot WOWY for this season is something to behold, specifically in his relationship with #33. Together, they are fine together. But Buff might win the Norris without him!!
upload_2019-2-13_9-54-17.png
 
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DRW204

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Dec 26, 2010
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What numbers/stats/analytics do people look at to categorize players as "play drivers"

Relative or Raw corsi and xGs? both?
 

Rheged

JMFT
Feb 19, 2010
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Lowry's line took a huge hit when Buff was injured, not sure whether that has more to do with him being out or Morrow being in but it's pretty remarkable.

Top 3 are Lowry/Perreault/Tanev and bottom is Buff to show the gap:
upload_2019-2-13_10-57-55.png
 
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JetsFan815

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Jan 16, 2012
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Outcorsied 51.64% to 48.36% and more importantly out Expected Goaled 59.93% to 40.07% against the Ottawa Senators tonight... the Ottawa Senators.

In 2019 only New Jersey, Edmonton, Chicago and Anaheim have had worse Corsi and xGoals than the Jets :(
 
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Imcanadianeh

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Nov 1, 2015
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It looks like we are on pace to having the worst season in xGF% in franchise history... yes even worse than the Noel era teams Corsica | Team Stats
I think that should show how flawed xGF% can be, clearly this is the best or second best team since relocation.

Just checked the standings....still first in the central, second in the west and fourth overall.
 
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Sperss1997

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Oct 29, 2015
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I think that should show how flawed xGF% can be, clearly this is the best or second best team since relocation.

Just checked the standings....still first in the central, second in the west and fourth overall.
No, that just show how much variance influence results!
Although scoring talent may have something to say when you measure xG, I dont think it can make up for these numbers to justify a number one spot - or even make it good
 
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garret9

AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Mar 31, 2012
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Burmi GF% vs. Burmi xGF% is completely different thing that Jets GF% vs. Jets xGF%, as the latter is already average of 20+ people (weighted of course, but still average).

On averages it's not a surprise that GF tends to follow xGF, as shooting talent is (mostly) averaged out.

On individual level things are different. For example Jets has mythical corsi master Perreault that tends to lack on actual results when compared to his outstanding virtual stats. (Disclaimer: haven't check his stats for ages. I'm only using Perreault as an example).

Ps. I am not disputing that fact that this year xGF% looks awful for the Jets and is also visible on ice. Trends are important so when your xGF% as a team is trending down, that's not a good thing for sure.

Pre-KHL Burmi had a good relGF%.
 

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