2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread

[Whileee]

I'm convinced they are making a concerted effort to save something, I see it in Wheeler's, Scheifele's and Lowry's game consistently, among others. Last season's balls to the wall style of play every game caught up with them in the WCF (as well as MAF).

I've seen them raise their level of play a number of times this year, as recently as last Friday. Helle seems to be raising his game significantly as well.

I have hope, the numbers suggest I probably shouldn't, but I still believe this team will show what it's made of when it counts most..

I kind of felt that way too. Also, Maurice is using them a bit less. Time will tell.

 

[JetsFan815]

Yes but over the larger sample of a full season, no where near the likes of those hockey teams. We have defintely seen the impact of losing some key possession drivers like Ehlers, Buff and Morrissey since Jan 1.

I'm a bit curious about the xGFdiff of -.28/60 versus the actual of +.09/60. Off the top of my head our PDO has been fairly neutral and if above 100, more so due to sv%.

The Jets have the shooting talent and decent enough goaltending to overperform their Expected Goals by a couple of percent. They did the same last season by 1-2% depending on which xG model you look at. However that only gets you so far when you are so buried.

 

[Maukkis]

I'm convinced they are making a concerted effort to save something, I see it in Wheeler's, Scheifele's and Lowry's game consistently, among others. Last season's balls to the wall style of play every game caught up with them in the WCF (as well as MAF).

I've seen them raise their level of play a number of times this year, as recently as last Friday. Helle seems to be raising his game significantly as well.

I have hope, the numbers suggest I probably shouldn't, but I still believe this team will show what it's made of when it counts most..

I find the notion of the players 'flipping a switch' quite hard to believe.

Hoping I am wrong.

 

[Ducky10]

I find the notion of the players 'flipping a switch' quite hard to believe.

Hoping I am wrong.

Highlight where I used that phrase.

What I said and "flipping a switch" aren't the same thing .

I also wasn't saying it to convince you, believe whatever you want.

 

[Maukkis]

Highlight where I used that phrase.

What I said and "flipping a switch" aren't the same thing .

I also wasn't saying it to convince you, believe whatever you want.

I understood your post. Just don't think going from saving energy to playing at your peak in a short amount of time is as easy as people make it out to be.

 

[AKAChip]

It does seem like after last season, it would take nothing short of a last place season to make some people clamor for changes around here but while we can’t see into the future, at what point do we stop hoping and praying that this team becomes what it used to be and accept that this is pretty much who they are? Byfuglien and Morrissey make a huge difference but they don’t turn the worst xG team in 2019 into a top tier one. Something is rotten.

 

[AKAChip]

I'm convinced they are making a concerted effort to save something, I see it in Wheeler's, Scheifele's and Lowry's game consistently, among others. Last season's balls to the wall style of play every game caught up with them in the WCF (as well as MAF).

I've seen them raise their level of play a number of times this year, as recently as last Friday. Helle seems to be raising his game significantly as well.

I have hope, the numbers suggest I probably shouldn't, but I still believe this team will show what it's made of when it counts most..

I appreciate that this is possible, even if I disagree that this is what’s going on but one question: what if they don’t turn it on and this is just who they are? Where do they go from here?

 

[portamoral]

2 things: losing enstrom & goaltending regression

i think this is what they are unfortunately

 

[DRW204]

2 things: losing enstrom & goaltending regression

i think this is what they are unfortunately

they were without Enstrom for ~40 games last year. the whole team Defense has taken a step back, it goes beyond losing 1 player

 

[Board Bard]

they were without Enstrom for ~40 games last year. the whole team Defense has taken a step back, it goes beyond losing 1 player

Just the switch from Armia to Roslovic is probably costing ten goals, and we also get a less entertaining eye test (at least lately).

 

[Daximus]

I appreciate that this is possible, even if I disagree that this is what’s going on but one question: what if they don’t turn it on and this is just who they are? Where do they go from here?

I think I remember Crosby on the Pens talking about saving it for the playoffs before. But you run the risk of not finding it in time.

 

[Ducky10]

I appreciate that this is possible, even if I disagree that this is what’s going on but one question: what if they don’t turn it on and this is just who they are? Where do they go from here?

I think they evaluate where they are as a group in their maturation process. It still gets taken for granted around here how young and inexperienced this team really is. They either grow from it and commit to the style of play necessary on a consistent basis to begin next season, or they continue to struggle, at which point all eyes start to focus more and more on the messenger. There will also be some necessary personnel changes made if they fall on their faces this post season, fairly obvious ones imo.

 

[Whileee]

I find the notion of the players 'flipping a switch' quite hard to believe.

Hoping I am wrong.

Do you think Scheifele lost his ability? Wheeler?

I don't think it's a lack of effort, but maybe a lack of concentration and focus. Playoffs are different and Scheifele rose to a new level last playoffs. My guess is he can and will be more effective.

 

[winnipegger]

The Jets at their best are a difficult team to handle in all zones. Last year in the Nashville series the Jets won by being tenacious which is something I have only seen a handful of times this year. When you are tenacious (kind of like Tampa last night) you are first to pucks, and you are closing down options for the opposing puck carrier faster than they can move. Despite the poor shot metrics I like to think they are capable of raising their game when the chips are down. And it can't be overstated how much Buff and Morrisey contribute to the speed game. Those two can find the middle of the ice with passes like no other D on the Jets. I remain optimistic which, being a somewhat surly and pessimistic character, is unusual. The hope for me lies in the depth at forward, which I don't honestly see more than 2 or 3 other teams coming close to matching or surpassing.

 

[garret9]

At even strength:

14th in goal differential: +0.09 per hour
25th in xGoal differential: -0.28 per hour
19th in shots differential: -1.5 per hour
18th in Fenwick differential: -1.6 per hour
17th in Corsi differential: -1.0 per hour

That's more than missing Morrissey and Byfuglien.

 

[ps241]

At even strength:

14th in goal differential: +0.09 per hour
25th in xGoal differential: -0.28 per hour
19th in shots differential: -1.5 per hour
18th in Fenwick differential: -1.6 per hour
17th in Corsi differential: -1.0 per hour

That's more than missing Morrissey and Byfuglien.

Hockey is a very mysterious sport. There have been some mild roster changes since last season but it doesn’t come close to explaining the fall in all these measurements. Either we had an outlier season in 2017-18 where players played above their heads or we have key assets playing way below their talent level this season?

I know it’s a statistics and underlying Metrics thread but to me the team lacks the consistant intensity it had last year. Perhaps it’s all just part of the randomness that is the NHL?

 

[PhilJets]

Maybe coach
Stuck
With
Wheeler Schiefele
Little Laine
Lowry Tanev

For too long..
Not shaking it up

 

[surixon]

Hockey is a very mysterious sport. There have been some mild roster changes since last season but it doesn’t come close to explaining the fall in all these measurements. Either we had an outlier season in 2017-18 where players played above their heads or we have key assets playing way below their talent level this season?

I know it’s a statistics and underlying Metrics thread but to me the team lacks the consistant intensity it had last year. Perhaps it’s all just part of the randomness that is the NHL?

Agreed, it could be the team resting on their Laurels a bit and when things came easy early in the year it reinforced bad habits.

I'm trying to stay optimistic. To me this is just another learning experience for a young team trying to be a consistent contending team. I would also say it's a learning experience Maurice as well who has never been able to coach consistently good results. Whenever he's had a year with good success the team has fallen off the next season.

 

[jetsfan15]

2 things: losing enstrom & goaltending regression

i think this is what they are unfortunately

I think the bigger issue of late has been the injuries to Buff & Morrissey, not the loss of Enstrom. I agree that there has been a goaltending regression (statistically), but I find that Helly has improved a lot over the last few games and I’m optimistic about that, looks like he’s getting hot at the right time heading into the playoffs.

 

[DRW204]

At even strength:

14th in goal differential: +0.09 per hour
25th in xGoal differential: -0.28 per hour
19th in shots differential: -1.5 per hour
18th in Fenwick differential: -1.6 per hour
17th in Corsi differential: -1.0 per hour

That's more than missing Morrissey and Byfuglien.

the disparity between this year's and last year's Shots Allowed heatmap is astonishing

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

What is even more astonishing is coaching and leadership's inability to address the issue for three months now. Has the coach lost the room? You have to ask this question since this year's Jets are last year's Jets minus only Enstrom / Armia.

 

[Rheged]

I still think things are at least partially injury related since the downfall really began with Buff and Ehlers going down long term.

Really though even healthy through the first half of the season the numbers were pretty mediocre, better than the current bottom of the barrel but not what you'd hope with the personnel here.

 

[Ukkosenjumala]

Interesting to compare Carolina's heatmaps with the Jets, if it plays out anything like those it could be ugly for the Jets tonight.

 

[Whileee]

Okay, so which players have taken a performance dip compared to last season? Here is a chart that shows the difference in expected goals plus-minus per 60 minutes (xGPM_60) from last year to this year. This statistic uses a model to adjust for quality of teammate and competition, among other factors.

It's pretty clear that most Jets have worse metrics, but the huge drops in performance are among those who the Jets rely on a lot, including Scheifele, Lowry, Wheeler, Connor and Perreault. Interestingly, the D haven't declined as much, and Myers is actually quite a bit better than last season (the only Jet with a strong improvement). Laine hasn't changed much, but that's because he doesn't perform well in this metric in either season.

Unless the Jets get Scheifele and Wheeler sorted out, along with their secondary forwards, they are going to continue to be under water. I think Maurice really should have tried to shake things up a bit with Scheifele and Wheeler, probably by splitting them up. I think they've become too stale and too confident in their offense as their key weapon.

 

[Evil Little]

At even strength:

14th in goal differential: +0.09 per hour
25th in xGoal differential: -0.28 per hour
19th in shots differential: -1.5 per hour
18th in Fenwick differential: -1.6 per hour
17th in Corsi differential: -1.0 per hour

That's more than missing Morrissey and Byfuglien.

And as @DRW204 alluded, it goes beyond losing Enström. Cuts both ways.

Maurice has long talked about game intensity picking up a few times over the course of the season. It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility that he's coaching them to start the season in first gear and get up to highway speed. It's also not outside the realm of possibility that the team might struggle psychologically with that transition, especially with injuries to key puck-movers.