2018-19 stats and underlying metrics thread

[Boom Boom Apathy]

What the hell is the matter with Carolina. Every year they are in this spot. They even have a bonafide elite center now with Aho and some decent scoring talent on the wings. It really boggles the mind that they can't make the playoffs. Consistently good shot metrics.

It's pretty simple. Lack of talent.

1) Their centers for the past 20+ games are: Aho, Lucas Wallmark, Jordan Martinook, Greg McKegg/Clark Bishop (Staal's been out with a concussion and only played 29 games). So basically a 1C in his first year at C and three 4Cs/AHL fodder.
2) Their goalies are: Petr Mrazek (.894 SV%), Scott Darling (.884 SV%) and Waiver Wire Pick-up Curtis McElhinney (.914 SV% but has been hurt twice as his body breaks down with too many games).
3) Their wingers are still below average compared to the rest of the league.

• Aho is 15th in the NHL in scoring which is good.
  
• Teravainen is 53rd in the NHL which means most teams have at least 2 scorers better than him.
  
• Williams is 108th in the NHL which means most teams have at least 3 scorers better than him and some have 4.

Adding Nino helps for sure.
4) They have the lowest payroll in the NHL.

Solid defense, but way undermanned upfront and not great in goal.

 

[Jack722]

Connor has brought down both Little and Scheifele lines, whereas Ehlers elevates them. Copp has been a net positive despite being shackled to Lemieux.

I'm going to keep pushing for trying Copp with Laine until Maurice relents and gives it a try.

I think I'd rather see:

Ehlers - Scheif - Wheels, very good first line

Connor - Little - Roslovic, let's see if Connor and Roslovic have some chemistry. How come they've never played together in the NHL (I think maybe a short stint on 4th line last year?)

Perreault - Copp - Laine, this line would be dynamite IMO. Ehlers I don't think has ever been a great fit for Laine, and Perreault has been.

 

[Whileee]

I think I'd rather see:

Ehlers - Scheif - Wheels, very good first line

Connor - Little - Roslovic, let's see if Connor and Roslovic have some chemistry. How come they've never played together in the NHL (I think maybe a short stint on 4th line last year?)

Perreault - Copp - Laine, this line would be dynamite IMO. Ehlers I don't think has ever been a great fit for Laine, and Perreault has been.

I like this, too.

 

[PhilJets]

Some of us got the Maurice syndrom
Even with our imaginary lines.
We dont separate schiefele and Wheeler to make line 1 and 2 stronger

He got us

 

[Maukkis]

Here's some more context on 5v5 play so far this year. P/60 ranking among league forwards (>400 minutes). Added a few others in for colour. Copp has really moved up since slotting in between Lemieux and Appleton. Roughly, 1-90 are 1st liners; 91-180 are 2nd liners; 180-270 are 3rd liners.

13. Matt Duchene (2.93)
66. Mark Stone (2.17)
69. Blake Wheeler (2.16)
78. Mark Scheifele (2.10)
98. Brian Little (2.01)
100. Sean Couturier (2.00)
115. Andrew Copp (1.90)
116. Nikolaj Ehlers (1.90)
158. Nikolaj Tanev (1.66)
160. Braden Schenn (1.65)
167. Patrik Laine (1.62)
171. Kyle Connor (1.62)
197. Mathieu Perreault (1.48)
217. Jack Roslovic (1.39)
278. Adam Lowry (1.10)

Lost Appleton (2.42 in 198mins) and Lemieux (2.14 in 253mins) due to filters.

What the f*** is a Nikolaj Tanev?

 

[Cypruss]

What the **** is a Nikolaj Tanev?

Not sure, but he seems to be better than Schenn and Laine....Sign him!

 

[Gil Fisher]

What the **** is a Nikolaj Tanev?

My new nickname for Brandon. He's a poor man's Ehlers. Flies around the place less effectively.

 

[garret9]

What the hell is the matter with Carolina. Every year they are in this spot. They even have a bonafide elite center now with Aho and some decent scoring talent on the wings. It really boggles the mind that they can't make the playoffs. Consistently good shot metrics.

Sometimes goaltending (This is a big one: their best EV Sv% season lately is 0.912 in 2014-15, to compare in the Pavelec era Jets' worst was 0.914. Worst EV Sv% for 2014-present).
Sometimes sh% (2nd worst 2014-present).
Sometimes special teams.
Sometimes penalties.

Usually a combo of 1-3 of those things.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Sometimes goaltending (This is a big one: their best EV Sv% season lately is 0.912 in 2014-15, to compare in the Pavelec era Jets' worst was 0.914. Worst EV Sv% for 2014-present).
Sometimes sh% (2nd worst 2014-present).
Sometimes special teams.
Sometimes penalties.

Usually a combo of 1-3 of those things.

True, but all of that points to the main issue. Lack of talent. When 3 of your 4 centers are 4th line / AHLers, that's not a talented team. When 37 year old Justin Williams is your 3rd leading scorer with just 30 points, that's not a talented team. Right now, they get by on speed and effort so they are rarely out of a game, but they don't have the talent to get over the hump.

 

[Whileee]

Interesting perspective...

 

[Maukkis]

True, but all of that points to the main issue. Lack of talent. When 3 of your 4 centers are 4th line / AHLers, that's not a talented team. When 37 year old Justin Williams is your 3rd leading scorer with just 30 points, that's not a talented team. Right now, they get by on speed and effort so they are rarely out of a game, but they don't have the talent to get over the hump.

There was a really good discussion on the subject on the main boards once. Seemed like a lot of people agreed with the notion of scoring talent being undervalued in xG.

With the outright dominance in terms of shot and quality shares, you should be near the top of the league. Hoping you can find a Nino or two to get some talent to help the top tier system. That, and a goalie.

 

[Evil Little]

Hoping you can find a Nino or two to get some talent to help the top tier system. That, and a goalie.

Don't know if a team should be rewarded for giving up on Lee 'The Dream' Stempniak.

 

[Jimby]

If a player is said to be the best on the team at tipping shots as is said about Lemieux, what effect does this have on his corsi and expected goals? Does a tipped puck count as a shot attempt? Do tipped goals increase his shooting percentage?

 

[Halberdier]

If a player is said to be the best on the team at tipping shots as is said about Lemieux, what effect does this have on his corsi and expected goals? Does a tipped puck count as a shot attempt? Do tipped goals increase his shooting percentage?

I think they count as "shots", so yes.

 

[Jimby]

If a shot hits the shaft of his stick and doesn't hit the net is someone keeping track of every deflection or are they just looking at deflections that go in the net? So often a deflection is only determined to have occurred after a goal is scored. So, if no goal was scored I would assume that deflection would never to discovered and counted as a shot attempt?

 

[garret9]

A deflection is a shot. The shot is tracked as the deflecter was the shooter. Their location is the shot (so the xGoals take that into account).
The people that get screwed over by those that deflect shots with the NHL's current tracking is only the person who took the original shot, unless there is a goal scored.
More in depth tracking though would track it as a shot pass, so you account for both.

 

[Jimby]

Thanks Garret.

 

[Whileee]

Thought I'd leave this here...

Bottom line - there is a positive correlation in CF% and xGF% between regular season and playoffs in the same year by a team, but it's not that strong and only explains less than 14% of variance.

 

[pucka lucka]

Sometimes goaltending (This is a big one: their best EV Sv% season lately is 0.912 in 2014-15, to compare in the Pavelec era Jets' worst was 0.914. Worst EV Sv% for 2014-present).
Sometimes sh% (2nd worst 2014-present).
Sometimes special teams.
Sometimes penalties.

Usually a combo of 1-3 of those things.

Cam Ward for the win!

 

[Whileee]

Cam Ward for the win!

Since 2013/14 (Canes ranking, 5v5):

CF% 15th
SV% 11th
SH% 27th
HDSH% 30th (last)

No-talent forwards have been an issue, too...

 

[pucka lucka]

Since 2013/14 (Canes ranking, 5v5):

CF% 15th
SV% 11th
SH% 27th
HDSH% 30th (last)

No-talent forwards have been an issue, too...

I just wanted to take a shot at Cam Ward and his huge contract

 

[Whileee]

I just wanted to take a shot at Cam Ward and his huge contract

It was a top-ranked albatross. There seem to be a number of those around these days.

 

[Maukkis]

For clarity: the end of the line with the abbreviation represents their last 25 games, whereas the 'tail' end represents the performance in their first 25.

Don't quite think all those people who have mentioned about this trend in GDTs and PGTs have been pulling shit out of their ass. We are trending down. Heck, even the first 25 weren't all that magical.

 

[Rheged]

Willing to bet that downward trend coincides with Ehlers injury.. The first line was humming along at a pretty good pace with him there but Scheif can't carry Connor and Wheeler.

Should still be looking to add another forward who's good at driving the puck to the offensive zone but I think just getting Ehlers back in the lineup (and Buff I guess really) will do a lot for the 5 on 5 play.

 

[ps241]

For clarity: the end of the line with the abbreviation represents their last 25 games, whereas the 'tail' end represents the performance in their first 25.

Don't quite think all those people who have mentioned about this trend in GDTs and PGTs have been pulling **** out of their ass. We are trending down. Heck, even the first 25 weren't all that magical.

A few things

Almost everyone is aware we are not doing well 5v5 this year "yet"

The graph shows there can be movement meaning this is not the final story (could get better could get worse)

TB Nash Winn Pitt all seem to be struggling over this time horizon vs before

Colorado is nailing it while losing almost all their last 25 games

If this had any connection to 28 games from now then I would want to avoid St Louis in the first round of the playoffs.

Chicago went from the worst to really the worst and are 7-2-1 in their last 10?

We use to be better at this last year.