Line Combos: 2018-19 Starting Roster II

[DashingDane]

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I have to agree with you Dane -- at this point I just don't think an amazing talent like Ehlers is being utilized properly. It's only the 2nd game of the season, and I'm sure Maurice will figure it out, as he's a smart hockey man.

The Jet's problem right now is at 2nd line center in my opinion.

It should be emphasized that it's not just Ehlers. It happens to be him right now but it could be said about almost all young Jets. JoMo played less than he should last year. So did Laine... We currently have 5-6 forwards putting up 1st line performances and I think their toi should reflect that.

 

[GNP]

It should be emphasized that it's not just Ehlers. It happens to be him right now but it could be said about almost all young Jets. JoMo played less than he should last year. So did Laine... We currently have 5-6 forwards putting up 1st line performances and I think their toi should reflect that.

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I just listened to an interview with Maurice, and it sounds like he's moving Ehlers back to the 2nd line, and Perrault back to the 3rd or 4th line. Very good move IMO, and one that I full well expected. Ehlers needs to be with some talented players, and can create a lot of open ice for them. I'm looking forward to see if Nik can give a nice boost to that line. I think it's a great move my Maurice.

 

[Halberdier]

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I just listened to an interview with Maurice, and it sounds like he's moving Ehlers back to the 2nd line, and Perrault back to the 3rd or 4th line. Very good move IMO, and one that I full well expected. Ehlers needs to be with some talented players, and can create a lot of open ice for them. I'm looking forward to see if Nik can give a nice boost to that line. I think it's a great move my Maurice.

ELL has been always even much worse than PLL, so I'm really not thrilled if the only move is just swapping Ehlers with Perreault.

Ehlers and Laine have proven they can be very effective when the center is named Scheifele, Copp or Stastny (R.I.P), but not with Little. Total sample size is large, and it has been night and day. Other E+La lines are around 5 goals for / 60, ELL is 2.2-something goals for / 60. Also ELL has been a bit worse defensively than other E+La lines combined

After the last game both ELL and PLL are now the only 5-on-5 lines for Laine that have negative goal differential, -1 for 3 last seasons to be precise. 16-17 LSW was also negative (with small sample size), but got even during 17-18 (with even smaller sample size).

If Maurice wanted to get Ehlers (and Laine) going and had some priority for that, he should try ESL, ECL and ERL. As he doesn't want to touch CSW or CLT, remaining option is to try ERL.

 

[19GoalsInPlayoffs]

If Maurice wanted to get Ehlers (and Laine) going and had some priority for that, he should try ESL, ECL and ERL. As he doesn't want to touch CSW or CLT, remaining option is to try ERL.

So ERL it is. Even the numbers look nice together: 27-28-29.

As Scheifele is the #1, and it seems there is no other possibility than Little being #2, let there be the best 3rd line in the history of hockey.

It would totally make sense. And I’d bet it would work beautifully. Just how could we get one particular person just to try it out... even once.

Edit. I’d say even the second line would make so much more sense after that. Two good veteran players showing a rookie what it takes to make it in the NHL. I’d bet the new ”2nd” line would be just fine at both ends: Vesalainen-Little-Perrault.

CSW
VLP
ERL
CLT

 

[Whileee]

ELL has been always even much worse than PLL, so I'm really not thrilled if the only move is just swapping Ehlers with Perreault.

Ehlers and Laine have proven they can be very effective when the center is named Scheifele, Copp or Stastny (R.I.P), but not with Little. Total sample size is large, and it has been night and day. Other E+La lines are around 5 goals for / 60, ELL is 2.2-something goals for / 60. Also ELL has been a bit worse defensively than other E+La lines combined

After the last game both ELL and PLL are now the only 5-on-5 lines for Laine that have negative goal differential, -1 for 3 last seasons to be precise. 16-17 LSW was also negative (with small sample size), but got even during 17-18 (with even smaller sample size).

If Maurice wanted to get Ehlers (and Laine) going and had some priority for that, he should try ESL, ECL and ERL. As he doesn't want to touch CSW or CLT, remaining option is to try ERL.

I agree that ELL hasn't been great, but I think that's not just on Little, who seems to be fine with Perreault and either Ehlers or Laine. I think Ehlers and Laine both have to crank up their intensity and battle harder to win pucks if they want success. Laine looks quicker and more effective on puck battles and possession in the offensive zone this season, and if Ehlers cranks up the intensity a bit they might be better together than we've seen before. They both need to bring a bit of the tenacity that Perreault brings for any line they play on to be effective.

 

[Whileee]

So ERL it is. Even the numbers look nice together: 27-28-29.

As Scheifele is the #1, and it seems there is no other possibility than Little being #2, let there be the best 3rd line in the history of hockey.

It would totally make sense. And I’d bet it would work beautifully. Just how could we get one particular person just to try it out... even once.

I'd love to see that line work eventually...

 

[Whileee]

Why don't they just give Ehlers the Kane treatment?
Every once in a while, when the Lowry line is playing his non-shutdown shifts (which believe it or not happens more often than one would think), swap Tanev for Ehlers?

I agree. I think Ehlers would work well with Lowry and Copp, because he provides the speed and pressure, and a scoring touch.

 

[Halberdier]

I agree that ELL hasn't been great, but I think that's not just on Little, who seems to be fine with Perreault and either Ehlers or Laine. I think Ehlers and Laine both have to crank up their intensity and battle harder to win pucks if they want success. Laine looks quicker and more effective on puck battles and possession in the offensive zone this season, and if Ehlers cranks up the intensity a bit they might be better together than we've seen before. They both need to bring a bit of the tenacity that Perreault brings for any line they play on to be effective.

I didn't suggest that ELL not working was solely on Little. I have never suggested that actually.

But even when we just don't know why ELL is not working, it just is not working. And PLL is not actually working either. PLL might have a good Corsi as any line with Perreault has a good Corsi, but that is not enough. PSL had even much better Corsi (rel c% +5.88 vs. rel c% +4.04), but they also did outscore their opponent really well in real stats.

Only regular season 5-on-5 stats (2016-) below:

ELL has played together 555 minutes, with miserable 2.38 GF/60 and 2.49 GA/60. In actual goals +22 -23 = -1.

PLL has played together 198 minutes, with poor 3.34 GF/60 and 3.64 GA/60. In actual goals, +11 -12 = -1.

In total ELL and PLL have played together 752 minutes with 2.63 GF/60 and 2.79 GA/60. In actual goals that is +33 -35 = -2.


E-non-Little-L has been playing together 0.02 minutes less than ELL, so in other words exactly the same amount, 555 minutes, but with totally different outcome: 4.76 GF/60 and 2.70 GA/60 or in actual goals +44 -25 = +19!

In totall all Laine-lines without Little (*) are summed up we get 948 TOI, 4.43 GF/60 and 2.47 GA/60 or in actual goals +70 - 39 = +31!


I don't even care anymore whether Laine not working with Little is caused by their astrological horoscopes or by the gravity of the Moon, but those stats just cannot be overlooked by saying they are just unlucky or affected by bad goaltending (not true. during their play together goaltending has been generally better than when they didn't play together).

They. Just. Don't. Click. Or haven't done so regularly on their 2+ seasons for now. Maybe there is a time to try something different, Mr. Maurice? Using non-Little Laine lines effectiveness as an estimate, about +27 goal difference has been wasted during 2+ seasons with his never-ending madness even if we don't look at all the TOI question.

(*) All lines with at least 50 minutes TOI together are included, including some interesting ones like Roslovic-Wheeler-Laine creating 4 goals and allowing 2 goals against together.

 

[voyageur]

Why don't they just give Ehlers the Kane treatment?
Every once in a while, when the Lowry line is playing his non-shutdown shifts (which believe it or not happens more often than one would think), swap Tanev for Ehlers?

Holy s--t we agree. Happy Thankagiving. I think Lowry has the ability to lead the bus, by winning battles, and drives the net. Copp is an underrated passer, and a strong defensive player. Ehlers brings an element Tanev doesn't, stick handling, which moves defensemen out of place. I understand playing Lowry ahead of Roslovic, but not Tanev ahead of Ehlers.

Top 2 lines can move centres around for different looks.

 

[The Russian Rocket]

Laine with 15 and Ehlers with 11 min. TOI, meanwhile first line hogs all the minutes. Scheifele played almost 25 mins! He is no Gretzky, 1st line should be playing 19-20 min. per game, not 22-23 min. Everything about the line deployment is a joke.

 

[Mud Turtle]

I didn't suggest that ELL not working was solely on Little. I have never suggested that actually.

But even when we just don't know why ELL is not working, it just is not working. And PLL is not actually working either. PLL might have a good Corsi as any line with Perreault has a good Corsi, but that is not enough. PSL had even much better Corsi (rel c% +5.88 vs. rel c% +4.04), but they also did outscore their opponent really well in real stats.

Only regular season 5-on-5 stats (2016-) below:

ELL has played together 555 minutes, with miserable 2.38 GF/60 and 2.49 GA/60. In actual goals +22 -23 = -1.

PLL has played together 198 minutes, with poor 3.34 GF/60 and 3.64 GA/60. In actual goals, +11 -12 = -1.

In total ELL and PLL have played together 752 minutes with 2.63 GF/60 and 2.79 GA/60. In actual goals that is +33 -35 = -2.


E-non-Little-L has been playing together 0.02 minutes less than ELL, so in other words exactly the same amount, 555 minutes, but with totally different outcome: 4.76 GF/60 and 2.70 GA/60 or in actual goals +44 -25 = +19!

In totall all Laine-lines without Little (*) are summed up we get 948 TOI, 4.43 GF/60 and 2.47 GA/60 or in actual goals +70 - 39 = +31!


I don't even care anymore whether Laine not working with Little is caused by their astrological horoscopes or by the gravity of the Moon, but those stats just cannot be overlooked by saying they are just unlucky or affected by bad goaltending (not true. during their play together goaltending has been generally better than when they didn't play together).

They. Just. Don't. Click. Or haven't done so regularly on their 2+ seasons for now. Maybe there is a time to try something different, Mr. Maurice? Using non-Little Laine lines effectiveness as an estimate, about +27 goal difference has been wasted during 2+ seasons with his never-ending madness even if we don't look at all the TOI question.

(*) All lines with at least 50 minutes TOI together are included, including some interesting ones like Roslovic-Wheeler-Laine creating 4 goals and allowing 2 goals against together.

Great post.

 

[lanky]

Laine with 15 and Ehlers with 11 min. TOI, meanwhile first line hogs all the minutes. Scheifele played almost 25 mins! He is no Gretzky, 1st line should be playing 19-20 min. per game, not 22-23 min. Everything about the line deployment is a joke.

This won't be the norm. We were clinging to a 1 goal lead. We all know the 2nd and 3rd scoring lines will find chemistry and start scoring eventually.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Laine with 15 and Ehlers with 11 min. TOI, meanwhile first line hogs all the minutes. Scheifele played almost 25 mins! He is no Gretzky, 1st line should be playing 19-20 min. per game, not 22-23 min. Everything about the line deployment is a joke.

"He may not be the Gretzky we want, but he's the Gretzky we have".

LA played their 1st and 2nd lines a lot last night - when you add in PP TOI and matching up with Kopi, etc, that's the simplest reasoning behind the icetime allocation.

 

[Halberdier]

This won't be the norm. We were clinging to a 1 goal lead. We all know the 2nd and 3rd scoring lines will find chemistry and start scoring eventually.

We don't know. Hard evidence from a long, long period suggests otherwise.

See my previous post about data.

In longer periods Laine has never clicked with Little. They had a great 10 game or so stint when they first played together, but ever since they have been bad.

760 minutes TOI and counting for ELL or PLL. Totalling -2, or 36 goals worse we are used to with lines including Laine.

If they had any any chemistry, it had been seen already in first 50-60 games together.

 

[Whileee]

It's very early, but we are seeing some of the same trends in shot metrics as we had early last season. The team is better after the first few games, but the Scheifele line is lagging in shot metrics. Laine looks better so far in shot metrics than last year. Myers / Morrow and Chiarot lagging on D.

 

[Howard Chuck]

It's very early, but we are seeing some of the same trends in shot metrics as we had early last season. The team is better after the first few games, but the Scheifele line is lagging in shot metrics. Laine looks better so far in shot metrics than last year. Myers / Morrow and Chiarot lagging on D.

View attachment 145539

I'm always amazed at some of these charts. I don't try to understand a lot of them but when they include words like 'fun' 'bad' 'good', I get it. lol.

Is that an up to date chart for the first three games? Those positions are quite a surprise to me.

 

[Jack722]

I'm always amazed at some of these charts. I don't try to understand a lot of them but when they include words like 'fun' 'bad' 'good', I get it. lol.

Team is more fun without Trouba confirmed!

 

[Whileee]

I'm always amazed at some of these charts. I don't try to understand a lot of them but when they include words like 'fun' 'bad' 'good', I get it. lol.

Is that an up to date chart for the first three games? Those positions are quite a surprise to me.

Yes, that is a chart for the first 3 games. It looks quite similar to early last year in terms of the shot metrics for Scheifele and Wheeler. They get a lot of offensive zone time, but then are very reluctant to take a shot unless it is a very high quality shot. So I would bet that their actual zone time looks better than their shot attempt rate. The main issue is defensively. When they get hemmed in, they can really leak shots. I think it's partly because they tend to have an offensive mindset even when they are in their own zone, looking for opportunities for turnovers and flying out of the zone. They tend to sacrifice defensive body position because they are trying to steal pucks and get on the fly, rather than impeding play towards their net as a first priority. Even last night in the 3rd period this happened a few times, where they took a chance to get on the rush before locking down defensively and making sure that they had possession and cleared the zone. Last season they got better at that as the season progressed, so I'm hoping they take a bit of the risk out of their game in their own zone.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Yes, that is a chart for the first 3 games. It looks quite similar to early last year in terms of the shot metrics for Scheifele and Wheeler. They get a lot of offensive zone time, but then are very reluctant to take a shot unless it is a very high quality shot. So I would bet that their actual zone time looks better than their shot attempt rate. The main issue is defensively. When they get hemmed in, they can really leak shots. I think it's partly because they tend to have an offensive mindset even when they are in their own zone, looking for opportunities for turnovers and flying out of the zone. They tend to sacrifice defensive body position because they are trying to steal pucks and get on the fly, rather than impeding play towards their net as a first priority. Even last night in the 3rd period this happened a few times, where they took a chance to get on the rush before locking down defensively and making sure that they had possession and cleared the zone. Last season they got better at that as the season progressed, so I'm hoping they take a bit of the risk out of their game in their own zone.

Agree with every word. I saw last night as well where both Wheeler and Scheifele tried to grab a puck and skate out of our zone, but missed and it ended up a scoring opportunity for the Kings.

We managed to win a lot of games last year, with that line contributing in a huge way, so I imagine we will see improvement.

Anyway, interesting chart, thanks!

 

[Halberdier]

Yes, that is a chart for the first 3 games. It looks quite similar to early last year in terms of the shot metrics for Scheifele and Wheeler. They get a lot of offensive zone time, but then are very reluctant to take a shot unless it is a very high quality shot. So I would bet that their actual zone time looks better than their shot attempt rate. The main issue is defensively. When they get hemmed in, they can really leak shots. I think it's partly because they tend to have an offensive mindset even when they are in their own zone, looking for opportunities for turnovers and flying out of the zone. They tend to sacrifice defensive body position because they are trying to steal pucks and get on the fly, rather than impeding play towards their net as a first priority. Even last night in the 3rd period this happened a few times, where they took a chance to get on the rush before locking down defensively and making sure that they had possession and cleared the zone. Last season they got better at that as the season progressed, so I'm hoping they take a bit of the risk out of their game in their own zone.

Amen brother. Goes against forum consensus, but I agree fully on this.

I expect Laine's Corsi to drop considerably due to not playing with Perreault anymore. Unless they make line changes of course.

As usual, in the end Corsi scores no goals, so better quality shot opportunities are needed for 2nd line in general and Laine in particular.

 

[paragon]

They should try Ehlers - Perreault - Laine. Perreault is actually decent at the dot and played center in Washington and Anaheim. I don't know why Maurice is so opposed to playing him at center. Might as well give it a try.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I don't know why Maurice is so opposed to playing him at center.

Perreault himself states that he's more comfortable at wing. I'd rather try Perreault - Roslo - Laine, then you've got Perreault as a backup if Roslo gets booted from the dot.

 

[DashingDane]

I would like to see Laine and Ehlers split up and Scheif and Wheels split up. Scheif and Wheels because I think it would make the lineup and TOI more balanced. Nikky and Laine because they both aren't great along the boards and don't complement each other...

 

[paragon]

Perreault himself states that he's more comfortable at wing. I'd rather try Perreault - Roslo - Laine, then you've got Perreault as a backup if Roslo gets booted from the dot.

Who cares how he feels. Laine has also always felt more comfortable at the left wing, but Maurice insists on playing him on the right side.

 

[Board Bard]

When they get hemmed in, they can really leak shots.

The word you're looking for is deluge.