Speculation: 2018-19 Roster Discussion Part I

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I just think he is going to be better than previous career numbers because of this new situation. In the 26 games he's played in SJ, he's on pace for 346 shots over a full 82. Obviously we'll have to wait and see, but nothing he is doing numbers wise is night and day different from his career numbers besides volume. Not guarenteed obviously, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't hit 30. Wouldn't be the least surprised if he hit 35.

How did you calculate that pace? Did you include playoffs? I wasn’t including playoffs and I got a 372 shot pace.

At any rate, he’s played against 7 teams this year that bleed shots against and a lot of the teams that he played against last year did the same. I’m not convinced he’ll continue to take over 4.5 shots per game when he is playing against stronger teams. I’m also not convinced he will play 82 games.

Do you have any information about the quality of these shots? Yes, he is shooting a lot, but sometimes he shoots just after crossing the blueline on a rush at the end of his shify instead of dumping and changing, and those are typically low % shots.

You could try iHDCF/CF or something like that to see if he’s getting off higher percentage chances on average than he was back then but I don’t think there will be enough variance there to determine anything tbh.

 

[tiburon12]

You could try iHDCF/CF or something like that to see if he’s getting off higher percentage chances on average than he was back then but I don’t think there will be enough variance there to determine anything tbh.

Could be. I'm thinking more that the 372 shots you have calculated is in reality more like 330 "real shots", because he likes to throw the puck on net from low % areas when he has run out of options. that's probably a too nuanced way of looking at this type of data though

 

[hohosaregood]

Considering current success without Big Joe, do we allow him to walk at the end of the season? Will his knees force him out of the game sooner than that? I don't see him as the iron man Jagr is or Marleau will be.

If it weren't for the knee injuries, I would've thought that Thornton would be like Jagr. However, we're basically living in a post-Thornton world at this point. Looking at the lineup as is, I don't know if there's a reasonable place to have Thornton slide into the lineup. I'm kinda at the point where Jumbo only slides into the 4th line or takes Pavelski's spot and he moves to a different line. I don't know how to optimally do this.

Kane-Thornton-Labanc
Hertl-Couture-Meier
Pavelski-Shovels-Donskoi
Sorensen-Chartier-Goodrow

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

If it weren't for the knee injuries, I would've thought that Thornton would be like Jagr. However, we're basically living in a post-Thornton world at this point. Looking at the lineup as is, I don't know if there's a reasonable place to have Thornton slide into the lineup. I'm kinda at the point where Jumbo only slides into the 4th line or takes Pavelski's spot and he moves to a different line. I don't know how to optimally do this.

Kane-Thornton-Labanc
Hertl-Couture-Meier
Pavelski-Shovels-Donskoi
Sorensen-Chartier-Goodrow

I am guessing this is for this season? Or if we are unable to re-sign EK65 after this season?

Not sure how we keep Donskoi, Pavs and EK65 all on the roster. Jumbo (if he is healthy enough) will most likely take 1M/year just to stick around. He is either going to be a Shark next year or retired.

 

[Jaleel619]

Heh... Jumbo Thornton, if a rested healthy Thornton can play in the playoffs you get him in there, doesn't matter what spot.

 

[Barrie22]

Burns after 0 points and a -1 in the 1st 3 games. Has a 6 point streak going with 10 points and a +5.

 

[Sysreq]

Honestly, the best thing Karlsson has done is make Burns compete for a change. He’s really stepped up his game.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Honestly, the best thing Karlsson has done is make Burns compete for a change. He’s really stepped up his game.

I am not sure if this is really the case.

Burns has played this way in the past as well. Hell, he had 75, 76 and 67 points over the last 3 seasons so its not like he has not had close to PPG season. He is a little over a PPG right now but I am not sure if he will keep that pace up for the rest of the season.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I am not sure if this is really the case.

Burns has played this way in the past as well. Hell, he had 75, 76 and 67 points over the last 3 seasons so its not like he has not had close to PPG season. He is a little over a PPG right now but I am not sure if he will keep that pace up for the rest of the season.

The best part about this is that Burns doesn't need to keep that pace up for the Sharks to win games during the year.

 

[Barrie22]

Since 2014-15 burns has more points then karlsson. And that gap between them at the moment keeps getting wider and wider with karlssons early season strugles.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

The best part about this is that Burns doesn't need to keep that pace up for the Sharks to win games during the year.

Exactly. Before the season started and after the EK65 trade my thinking was that both Burns and EK65 will see their point totals go down this year. Probably closer to the 65-70 point range than 75+. Burns is on a tear right now but I dont expect that to go on all season long. Similarly, I expect Karlsson to start getting points at a higher rate than he is now.

Either way, in the end, individual points wont matter as much as long as the team keeps winning consistently.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Exactly. Before the season started and after the EK65 trade my thinking was that both Burns and EK65 will see their point totals go down this year. Probably closer to the 65-70 point range than 75+. Burns is on a tear right now but I dont expect that to go on all season long. Similarly, I expect Karlsson to start getting points at a higher rate than he is now.

Either way, in the end, individual points wont matter as much as long as the team keeps winning consistently.

I'd be happy with both of them at 50-55 and healthy honestly. Sharks lost a lot of their ability to control play when Burns started playing injury midway into the playoff run last year.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I'd be happy with both of them at 50-55 and healthy honestly. Sharks lost a lot of their ability to control play when Burns started playing injury midway into the playoff run last year.

I'd be extremely disappointed if they ended up in the 50-55 range.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'd be extremely disappointed if they ended up in the 50-55 range.

Why?

 

[rangerssharks414]

Why?

The point totals for Karlsson and Burns? 60+ is what I expect. Probably mid-60s...

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The point totals for Karlsson and Burns? 60+ is what I expect. Probably mid-60s...

If the team continues to control play like it has and that's what their point totals end up being while maintaining their health then I'm good. I just don't want them to play too much and I want them healthy for the playoffs. I don't really care how many points they score during the season. Just seeing how their presence on the ice helps control play is what I like to see.

 

[hockeyball]

I think Karlsson will probably get in the 60's, just a slow start. At some point he's going to go on a massive tear.

Burns probably around 60 as well, he's had a pretty decent start too, but he can be streaky.

Karlsson is not only dealing with a lot of change, he's probably dealing with a lot of behind the scenes drama. I'm not surprised his head isn't quite where it needs to be, totally understandable. Best thing we can do is be patient and supportive of him.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I think Karlsson will probably get in the 60's, just a slow start. At some point he's going to go on a massive tear.

Burns probably around 60 as well, he's had a pretty decent start too, but he can be streaky.

Karlsson is not only dealing with a lot of change, he's probably dealing with a lot of behind the scenes drama. I'm not surprised his head isn't quite where it needs to be, totally understandable. Best thing we can do is be patient and supportive of him.

I don't know if we should call it drama. But this is a massive change for him on the professional side. Different team, different culture, different role, etc. Then the personal side of things with losing Axel and having to move away from the place he spent all of his NHL career and his wife's hometown to boot.

I also have a feeling is Erik is more quiet and reserved than a lot of other players on our team. Couture, Burns, Vlasic, Thornton have very outspoken personalities and I am not sure if that type of team culture makes Erik feel more comfortable or uncomfortable. Don't think (and hope) that is a problem but it may just take some time to get used to the the personalities and team culture.

 

[matt trick]

I had read this morning that Karlsson had 7 points in 9 games (and -7), but just double checked and he is only at 5. I was like holy crap we're bellyaching about a guy on pace for 64 points? Seriously. That said on pace for 46 is not in line with his standard, but he could go for a three point night and be on 65 point pace any day. The -7 has been a combo of some unfortunate luck, bad goaltending and some poor defensive coverage- though i think his D has generally been pretty good. We has a nearly 2-1 short conversion.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Just let people skate to the net. Jeez.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Simek and Heed continue to get no ice time. Dillon or Braun has to be moved.

I suspect that Ryan might go in a trade for a bigger piece.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Simek and Heed continue to get no ice time. Dillon or Braun has to be moved.

I suspect that Ryan might go in a trade for a bigger piece.

I don't see Ryan being moved right now. He is cheap and Ryan-Burns has been our best pairing this season. Ryan being cheap is all the more important since we really don't have much cap to being with.

Moving Dillon and Braun could work but how do you move them when your coach has already shown that he has no confidence in Heed and Simek is completely unproven. At this time, I just don't see any moves being made on D.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Simek and Heed continue to get no ice time. Dillon or Braun has to be moved.

I suspect that Ryan might go in a trade for a bigger piece.

From 2/14/2018 until today, the Sharks have played in 51 regular season games and 10 playoff games. Tim Heed has been on the NHL roster for almost all of that time (At least 50 out of 61 games), and has played a total of 15 minutes and 59 seconds.

The organization clearly does not care about the way that Tim Heed is treated and I see no reason for them to feel any differently about the way that Radim Simek is treated. They will keep those guys around and play them in place of injury and scratch them otherwise. These are not young guys that need to develop; they are veterans close to the average NHL age who are UFAs next year and who will almost certainly sign elsewhere. The Sharks will not trade either one of Braun or Dillon to open up a space for them.

Joakim Ryan is a very concerning case. The amount of minutes that he is playing is just stupid. He is not playing like a player that should average significantly less than 15 minutes per night and be benched late in every other game. His underlying metrics are strong (more below), but his simple stats are strong as well; he has only taken 1 minor penalty this year, he only took 4 last year, he leads our team in plus/minus since the start of last season, etc. Can somebody point me to some sort of tangible evidence as to why Ryan should be benched? The only thing that I can think of is size.

And for the record, not dissimilar to last year, at 5V5, the Sharks are dominant in GF and other underlying metrics with Burns and Ryan together on the ice, and struggling in GF and some other metrics when Burns is on the ice without Ryan...

Burns W/Ryan: 62.5% CF 70% GF 60.78% HDCF
Burns W/O Ryan: 53.54% CF 25% GF 46.15% HDCF

It would be pretty dumb to trade Joakim Ryan when it's clear that his presence is essential for our best player to play at his best. But I could see it happening.

 

[Lebanezer]

From 2/14/2018 until today, the Sharks have played in 51 regular season games and 10 playoff games. Tim Heed has been on the NHL roster for almost all of that time (At least 50 out of 61 games), and has played a total of 15 minutes and 59 seconds.

The organization clearly does not care about the way that Tim Heed is treated and I see no reason for them to feel any differently about the way that Radim Simek is treated. They will keep those guys around and play them in place of injury and scratch them otherwise. These are not young guys that need to develop; they are veterans close to the average NHL age who are UFAs next year and who will almost certainly sign elsewhere. The Sharks will not trade either one of Braun or Dillon to open up a space for them.

Joakim Ryan is a very concerning case. The amount of minutes that he is playing is just stupid. He is not playing like a player that should average significantly less than 15 minutes per night and be benched late in every other game. His underlying metrics are strong (more below), but his simple stats are strong as well; he has only taken 1 minor penalty this year, he only took 4 last year, he leads our team in plus/minus since the start of last season, etc. Can somebody point me to some sort of tangible evidence as to why Ryan should be benched? The only thing that I can think of is size.

And for the record, not dissimilar to last year, at 5V5, the Sharks are dominant in GF and other underlying metrics with Burns and Ryan together on the ice, and struggling in GF and some other metrics when Burns is on the ice without Ryan...

Burns W/Ryan: 62.5% CF 70% GF 60.78% HDCF
Burns W/O Ryan: 53.54% CF 25% GF 46.15% HDCF

It would be pretty dumb to trade Joakim Ryan when it's clear that his presence is essential for our best player to play at his best. But I could see it happening.

I think the coaching staff is overthinking the dmen usage. They’re overplaying Karlsson and Vlasic, underplaying Dillon and Ryan. I don’t know if it’s an attempt to appease the top guys, but it doesn’t benefit them team to constantly disjoint the d pairs. It’s all very confusing.

 

[OrrNumber4]

From 2/14/2018 until today, the Sharks have played in 51 regular season games and 10 playoff games. Tim Heed has been on the NHL roster for almost all of that time (At least 50 out of 61 games), and has played a total of 15 minutes and 59 seconds.

The organization clearly does not care about the way that Tim Heed is treated and I see no reason for them to feel any differently about the way that Radim Simek is treated. They will keep those guys around and play them in place of injury and scratch them otherwise. These are not young guys that need to develop; they are veterans close to the average NHL age who are UFAs next year and who will almost certainly sign elsewhere. The Sharks will not trade either one of Braun or Dillon to open up a space for them.

Joakim Ryan is a very concerning case. The amount of minutes that he is playing is just stupid. He is not playing like a player that should average significantly less than 15 minutes per night and be benched late in every other game. His underlying metrics are strong (more below), but his simple stats are strong as well; he has only taken 1 minor penalty this year, he only took 4 last year, he leads our team in plus/minus since the start of last season, etc. Can somebody point me to some sort of tangible evidence as to why Ryan should be benched? The only thing that I can think of is size.

And for the record, not dissimilar to last year, at 5V5, the Sharks are dominant in GF and other underlying metrics with Burns and Ryan together on the ice, and struggling in GF and some other metrics when Burns is on the ice without Ryan...

Burns W/Ryan: 62.5% CF 70% GF 60.78% HDCF
Burns W/O Ryan: 53.54% CF 25% GF 46.15% HDCF

It would be pretty dumb to trade Joakim Ryan when it's clear that his presence is essential for our best player to play at his best. But I could see it happening.

Agreed on Ryan...he's not been getting a fair shake from DeBoer. But he is still a pretty valuable asset and I could see the Sharks move him, especially since it looks like they undervalue him.

I think the coaching staff is overthinking the dmen usage. They’re overplaying Karlsson and Vlasic, underplaying Dillon and Ryan. I don’t know if it’s an attempt to appease the top guys, but it doesn’t benefit them team to constantly disjoint the d pairs. It’s all very confusing.

Occasionally, we've seen Burns-Karlsson at ES and that hasn't looked too good. Burns, at least, doesn't look that comfortable on his weak side.