Speculation: 2018-19 Roster Discussion Part I

[Juxtaposer]

But strident, hot take reactions based on the strident, hot take reactions of an unrepresentative portion of other groups is how the internet works! You're spitting in the face of, like, decades of internet history!

I hope my mom is proud!

 

[OnTheFence]

Nope. Never.



Oh. geez. How did that get there?

Flames didn't win a cup, therefore they lost the trade.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Nope. Never.

Oh. geez. How did that get there?

The Eric Lindros trade worked out for both clubs too IMO.

 

[LeftHeartInSF]

Considering current success without Big Joe, do we allow him to walk at the end of the season? Will his knees force him out of the game sooner than that? I don't see him as the iron man Jagr is or Marleau will be.

 

[WSS11]

Considering current success without Big Joe, do we allow him to walk at the end of the season? Will his knees force him out of the game sooner than that? I don't see him as the iron man Jagr is or Marleau will be.

I’m fine with letting him and Pavs go. We can re-sign ek65 and go into a really good free agent pool next summer depending on what the cap does

 

[Sysreq]

Both will take a discount to be in San Jose. Pavelski is gonna be 35+. He is gonna go year to year like Jumbo has to make sure the team has the flexibility to continue to compete.

I think Jumbo will take a 1 mil sweet heart deal to keep playing. And I think Pavelski will take a million dollar haircut to keep Jumbo around. After the past few seasons, he has to realize that age is starting to take its toll and he should be greatful for every game he gets. I think his body is gonna quit before he does.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I’m fine with letting him and Pavs go. We can re-sign ek65 and go into a really good free agent pool next summer depending on what the cap does

Even if we let both Pavelski and Thornton go, we’ll probably still be pretty tight against the cap. I wouldn’t expect much out of the UFA pool.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Both will take a discount to be in San Jose. Pavelski is gonna be 35+. He is gonna go year to year like Jumbo has to make sure the team has the flexibility to continue to compete.

I think Jumbo will take a 1 mil sweet heart deal to keep playing. And I think Pavelski will take a million dollar haircut to keep Jumbo around. After the past few seasons, he has to realize that age is starting to take its toll and he should be greatful for every game he gets. I think his body is gonna quit before he does.

Pavelski's next contract will not be a 35+ contract.

 

[Barrie22]

Pavelski's next contract will not be a 35+ contract.

Pavs is lucky by 12 days lol

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Both will take a discount to be in San Jose. Pavelski is gonna be 35+. He is gonna go year to year like Jumbo has to make sure the team has the flexibility to continue to compete.

I think Jumbo will take a 1 mil sweet heart deal to keep playing. And I think Pavelski will take a million dollar haircut to keep Jumbo around. After the past few seasons, he has to realize that age is starting to take its toll and he should be greatful for every game he gets. I think his body is gonna quit before he does.

That sounds a bit excessive. His hair looks fine as it is.

 

[Jaleel619]

I personally feel Pavs will take whatever to stay on the team, he's been around long enough to know just making the playoffs is pretty tough. Where else could he go with better chances for the years he has left? I don't see many, and he is the captain. I think he holds onto that captaincy and plays sharks for his career. That's just me, he wasn't happy with just winning the Western final, so I think he takes a Joe Thornton approach and gets whats left on the table. It is possible to fit Duchene if Pavs does take a significant pay cut.

 

[SactoShark]

 

[Pinkfloyd]

This is going to be Pavelski's last chance at a big contract. It'd be nice if he took the same or less to stay here but nobody should expect it. Dude's on a 45 goal and 0 assist pace (lol). Chances are that at the end of the year, he's going to be able to justify making the same as Couture or Kane. Even if we assume that he only gets what Kane is getting at 7 mil then we're talking about having to trade Braun, Dillon, and Karlsson at a minimum, re-sign Karlsson at 11 mil which is bare minimum I feel for him due to Doughty, re-sign Donskoi at 4 mil, re-sign Meier and Labanc at 6 mil combined, re-sign Ryan and Suomela at 3 mil combined and the rest are more or less filled by signing or re-signing guys at 800k or less like using Simek and Roy on the 3rd pair with someone like DeSimone as the #7, calling up Chmelevski and Chekhovich or re-signing Sorensen around that amount. It'd be really tight for Pavs at 7 mil with an 82 mil cap figure which is the early guess for that number.

It's going to be very, very difficult to re-sign both Pavelski and Karlsson and there's no doubt that Karlsson is the top priority right now. Given that DW hasn't seemed to be moving forward with contract negotiations with Pavs' agent or so it seems who really knows, I have my doubts that he returns unless Karlsson walks.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I love Pavelski a lot, but we have so many re-signings to do next season, even discounting 65. Donskoi to me is more important (and will be cheaper and younger) than Pavelski. Meier and Labanc, if they keep up their current play/production, will need to be bridged. Suomela and Ryan need raises. I don’t really want to lose Dillon, but we’re probably looking at that.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

This is going to be Pavelski's last chance at a big contract. It'd be nice if he took the same or less to stay here but nobody should expect it. Dude's on a 45 goal and 0 assist pace (lol). Chances are that at the end of the year, he's going to be able to justify making the same as Couture or Kane. Even if we assume that he only gets what Kane is getting at 7 mil then we're talking about having to trade Braun, Dillon, and Karlsson at a minimum, re-sign Karlsson at 11 mil which is bare minimum I feel for him due to Doughty, re-sign Donskoi at 4 mil, re-sign Meier and Labanc at 6 mil combined, re-sign Ryan and Suomela at 3 mil combined and the rest are more or less filled by signing or re-signing guys at 800k or less like using Simek and Roy on the 3rd pair with someone like DeSimone as the #7, calling up Chmelevski and Chekhovich or re-signing Sorensen around that amount. It'd be really tight for Pavs at 7 mil with an 82 mil cap figure which is the early guess for that number.

It's going to be very, very difficult to re-sign both Pavelski and Karlsson and there's no doubt that Karlsson is the top priority right now. Given that DW hasn't seemed to be moving forward with contract negotiations with Pavs' agent or so it seems who really knows, I have my doubts that he returns unless Karlsson walks.

I seriously have no idea how we keep both Pavs and EK65. Unless EK65 ends up with like a 40 point season with the Sharks I just don't see how we prioritize Pavs ahead of EK65 in contract negotiations. Then again, if EK65 ends up with 40 points he may just feel that we are not a good fit and want to walk anyway.

 

[Barrie22]

I am going to guess for the most part come trade deadline we will know where we stand on the karlsson deal.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I love Pavelski a lot, but we have so many re-signings to do next season, even discounting 65. Donskoi to me is more important (and will be cheaper and younger) than Pavelski. Meier and Labanc, if they keep up their current play/production, will need to be bridged. Suomela and Ryan need raises. I don’t really want to lose Dillon, but we’re probably looking at that.

The way I am looking at next year, sans Pavs is:

Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Kane-Couture-Donskoi
?-Suomela-Sorenson
?-Chartier-Goodrow

Vlasic-Karlsson
Ryan-Burns
Dillon-?

2 of Perron, Letunov, True, Chehkovich, Praplan, Gambrell could potentially earn those forward spots.

We also have Middleton, Roy, Ferraro, DeSimone to fight for that 3rd D pairing spot. Heed is most likely done with SJ after this season. Dark horse is obviously Merkley. If we do end up moving Dillon as well, then we are going to be rather exposed on that 3rd D pairing.

 

[WSS11]

Even if we let both Pavelski and Thornton go, we’ll probably still be pretty tight against the cap. I wouldn’t expect much out of the UFA pool.

You’re right. Even if the cap goes up to 82mil. I played around in cap friendly and traded Braun for picks while bringing up Simek and Chekhovich. I made a lineup without Pavs and Jumbo while re-signing our guys and no outside free agents.

Resigned EK65 to 10.5MM AAV
Resigned Timo to 3.5MM AAV
Resigned Donskoi to 3.5MM AAV
Resigned Labanc to 3MM AAV
Resigned Suomela to 1.5MM AAV
Resigned Sorensen to 1MM AAV
Resigned Chartier to 825,000 AAV
Resigned Ryan to 1.8MM AAV

That gives us about $4MM in cap space. I figure Simek buys one more year until Merkley is hopefully ready.

Kane-Couture-Meier
Labanc-Hertl-Goodrow
Sorensen-Suomela-Donskoi
Chekhovich-Chartier-Melker

EK65-Dillon
Burns-Ryan
Vlasic-Simek

Yikes, our forward depth is bad.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You’re right. Even if the cap goes up to 82mil. I played around in cap friendly and traded Braun for picks while bringing up Simek and Chekhovich. I made a lineup without Pavs and Jumbo while re-signing our guys and no outside free agents.

Resigned EK65 to 10.5MM AAV
Resigned Timo to 3.5MM AAV
Resigned Donskoi to 3.5MM AAV
Resigned Labanc to 3MM AAV
Resigned Suomela to 1.5MM AAV
Resigned Sorensen to 1MM AAV
Resigned Chartier to 825,000 AAV
Resigned Ryan to 1.8MM AAV

That gives us about $4MM in cap space. I figure Simek buys one more year until Merkley is hopefully ready.

Kane-Couture-Meier
Labanc-Hertl-Goodrow
Sorensen-Suomela-Donskoi
Chekhovich-Chartier-Melker

EK65-Dillon
Burns-Ryan
Vlasic-Simek

Yikes, our forward depth is bad.

You can trade Melker and Dillon as well and probably get away with replacing them internally, which saves about $3M. But the $7M we would have at that point probably wouldn’t be enough for a Panarin or Stone or even Duchene.

I also think that just about every single one of those contracts are a little more team friendly than what we will actually end up seeing.

 

[WSS11]

You can trade Melker and Dillon as well and probably get away with replacing them internally, which saves about $3M. But the $7M we would have at that point probably wouldn’t be enough for a Panarin or Stone or even Duchene.

I also think that just about every single one of those contracts are a little more team friendly than what we will actually end up seeing.

Yeah I think we’d just be creating another hole by trading both Dillon and Braun. Panarin and stone will definitely be too expensive if we re-sign Erik. I’m very anxious to see what DWil does. If he was willing to throw 13MM at Tavares you have to think he has a plan for the next few years

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

Taking a look and Kanes fancy stats and what he's doing now actually looks pretty sustainable. Not shooting an insane percentage, just a bit over his career average, dominating in puck possession, chances, and high danger chances.

The only real reason to doubt it is because he's never done it before, but this is alsoa very different environment than he's ever played in.

If he stays healthy, seems highly unlikely he won't hit 30-35.

 

[spintops]

Idk about anyone else, but I’m not gonna actively wish poorly for Tierney and DeMelo just because some Sens fans made asses of themselves on the internet.

This x 100. They were solid sharks, and had decent seasons in the perfect time for us to be able to trade them for EK65.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Taking a look and Kanes fancy stats and what he's doing now actually looks pretty sustainable. Not shooting an insane percentage, just a bit over his career average, dominating in puck possession, chances, and high danger chances.

The only real reason to doubt it is because he's never done it before, but this is alsoa very different environment than he's ever played in.

If he stays healthy, seems highly unlikely he won't hit 30-35.

To a certain degree, even fancy stats are not sustainable. Kane isn’t going to be playing against the New Yorks, Buffalos, and Anaheims of the league for the entirety of the season.

Kane has 118 shots in 26 regular season games as a Shark. That’s a pace of 372 shots over the course of 82 games. If Kane took 372 shots and shot at his career shooting percentage, he would score 33 or 34 goals. If Kane does play 82 games and does take 372 shots on goal, I’m sure that he will score at least 30 goals. The problem is, I’m not convinced that he can play 82 games and take 372 shots. His career high in games and shots are 78 and 307; both of which he set last year in a contract year. His prior career highs were 74 games played 287 shots; both of which he set in his only other contract year in 2011-2012.

Kane’s shooting pace likely drops from over 4.5 shots per game to ~4 shots per game, and he likely only ends up playing ~75 games. That would leave him with 300 shots on the season and if he shoots at his career shooting percentage, he ends up with 27-28 goals. His possession stats will also probably take a hit after we start actually playing against good teams.

Don’t think this is me dissing Kane, though. He’s been great so far this season and if he scores 27-28 goals and ~55 points in ~75 games, while continuing to bring the possession game that he has so far, he is very, very valuable.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

To a certain degree, even fancy stats are not sustainable. Kane isn’t going to be playing against the New Yorks, Buffalos, and Anaheims of the league for the entirety of the season.

Kane has 118 shots in 26 regular season games as a Shark. That’s a pace of 372 shots over the course of 82 games. If Kane took 372 shots and shot at his career shooting percentage, he would score 33 or 34 goals. If Kane does play 82 games and does take 372 shots on goal, I’m sure that he will score at least 30 goals. The problem is, I’m not convinced that he can play 82 games and take 372 shots. His career high in games and shots are 78 and 307; both of which he set last year in a contract year. His prior career highs were 74 games played 287 shots; both of which he set in his only other contract year in 2011-2012.

Kane’s shooting pace likely drops from over 4.5 shots per game to ~4 shots per game, and he likely only ends up playing ~75 games. That would leave him with 300 shots on the season and if he shoots at his career shooting percentage, he ends up with 27-28 goals. His possession stats will also probably take a hit after we start actually playing against good teams.

Don’t think this is me dissing Kane, though. He’s been great so far this season and if he scores 27-28 goals and ~55 points in ~75 games, while continuing to bring the possession game that he has so far, he is very, very valuable.

I just think he is going to be better than previous career numbers because of this new situation. In the 26 games he's played in SJ, he's on pace for 346 shots over a full 82. Obviously we'll have to wait and see, but nothing he is doing numbers wise is night and day different from his career numbers besides volume. Not guarenteed obviously, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't hit 30. Wouldn't be the least surprised if he hit 35.

 

[tiburon12]

To a certain degree, even fancy stats are not sustainable. Kane isn’t going to be playing against the New Yorks, Buffalos, and Anaheims of the league for the entirety of the season.

Kane has 118 shots in 26 regular season games as a Shark. That’s a pace of 372 shots over the course of 82 games. If Kane took 372 shots and shot at his career shooting percentage, he would score 33 or 34 goals. If Kane does play 82 games and does take 372 shots on goal, I’m sure that he will score at least 30 goals. The problem is, I’m not convinced that he can play 82 games and take 372 shots. His career high in games and shots are 78 and 307; both of which he set last year in a contract year. His prior career highs were 74 games played 287 shots; both of which he set in his only other contract year in 2011-2012.

Kane’s shooting pace likely drops from over 4.5 shots per game to ~4 shots per game, and he likely only ends up playing ~75 games. That would leave him with 300 shots on the season and if he shoots at his career shooting percentage, he ends up with 27-28 goals. His possession stats will also probably take a hit after we start actually playing against good teams.

Don’t think this is me dissing Kane, though. He’s been great so far this season and if he scores 27-28 goals and ~55 points in ~75 games, while continuing to bring the possession game that he has so far, he is very, very valuable.

Do you have any information about the quality of these shots? Yes, he is shooting a lot, but sometimes he shoots just after crossing the blueline on a rush at the end of his shify instead of dumping and changing, and those are typically low % shots.