Speculation: 2018-19 Roster Discussion #4 - It’s Getting Better All The Time (maybe)

[Grimes]

I really think Tocchet had to adjust the system due to injuries and because Keumper was in net. I know Keumper had a great year and had very solid stats, but how much of it is because of the system they ran for the majority of the year, rather than his raw skill level? Its not a surprise that Trotz has made Greiss and Lehner look fantastic, while all of his skill players took a dip in production. I noticed a conservative systematic adjustment pretty much after Schmaltz went down.

The end of the 2018 season looked different. We were scoring down the middle and in many different ways after getting comfortable with RT's up-tempo system. The team played much more loose, as Raanta was able to make the big saves when needed. Keumper was pretty bleak on give aways or facing two-man rushes this season, Raanta saved us in these situations. I think next year we will see adjustments on game plan depending on the situation and goaltender in net. Even late this season when we played teams like Chicago (the time we got pummled by our ex-players not the shutout) or Tampa you could see a reversion to the up-tempo system. I believe RT thought we would be able to capitalize early and then shut it down if wewplayed ultra aggressive in thr transition rather than play the long game against these teams.

I'm actually more impressed with RT's coaching this season than last. Last year I felt like he wouldn't make adjustments and was being stubborn. This season I feel like he made the sacrifices needed to help the team excel. Let's see if he can manuever two approaches next season.

 

[Grimes]

Wennberg was in fact scratched last night and with CBJ winning I doubt he draws back in for Game 2.

I imagine CBJ is looking for picks after they emptied the cupboard at the deadline.

Is Wennberg even quick? He still has upside but that deal is looking like an anchor deal. They would have to retain to make it worthwhile to me. Even sending back KConn isn't enough because it's only one season of relief. I love the potential of him finding his game again here but if he can't I think he will be harder to trade than Duclair.

 

[_Del_]

I’d give them a third. He isn’t worth much

Not sure he's worth anything at full price. With retention, I think he has real value.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

I'm actually more impressed with RT's coaching this season than last. Last year I felt like he wouldn't make adjustments and was being stubborn. This season I feel like he made the sacrifices needed to help the team excel. Let's see if he can manuever two approaches next season.

Absolutely agree. I wanted Tocchet out on his keister last year because he wouldn't adjust his system to the talent. This year I think that he was masterful.

 

[rt]

The cash in Wennberg’s deal is back-loaded, too. He got 3.5m in the first year, 4.5m in this the second year and is slotted to get 5.35m in each of the remaining four years. No signing bonus relief this summer, either. It’s all salary.

If Jarmo keeps his job and decides to keep Torts for at least a year or two more, they basically have to get rid of Wennberg. He can’t exist under Torts.

If they retain 25% it drops his salary down to 4m per year for 4 remaining years. That’s 1.225m in dead Columbus cap for four years.

If we add Connauton to any Wennberg with 25% retained deal, it brings the cap hit up to 2.6m for them next season. And 1.225m in the following three.

It gives Wennberg next year at 4m in cash, less Cannauton’s 1.5m cash, for 2.5m total cost. Then it’s 4m in real dollars the following three.

 

[Mosby]

They might need Wennberg though if Duchene walks.

 

[_Del_]

They're probably better off cutting bait, moving him with retention, and acquiring someone they haven't alienated and that the coach would use, imo. Once you go so far, you can't easily go back.
Unless they plan on changing coaches.

Still have PLD and Jenner at C. That's pretty respectable. Foligno and Letestu can play bottom six C. Can afford to cut bait and try free agency with that sort of depth.

They'll have a bunch of cap room to play with at least when Bob and Panarin go.

 

[Grimes]

What do we do with Wenneberg if he is a 25 point center and not a 50 point one?

I would almost prefer to take on Lucic because EDM would pay up to take the contract and he brings something the team doesn't currently have.

 

[_Del_]

Well Wennberg is a defensively reliable C that PK's. His absolutely worst season to date is this one and he was .33 ppg. Garland was .38. Dvorak was .35. Crouse was .31/ Fischer was .25. Etc

So I guess the answer to "What do we do with Wenneberg if he is a 25 point center and not a 50 point one? " is that we'd play him at C in the bottom six. If Crouse played Center would we be able to find a use for him?

He's .50 ppg in his career including this season. He's not a shooter. But he's a good playmaker. Has a good frame, and he's good defensively. He plays C. He has enough skill we can use him. We don't have Jenner and PLD and Duschene to eat his minutes. He can slot in behind Dvo and Stepan in the line blender until he shows chemistry with someone and deserves more usage. But his strengths are a great compliment for any of our small, defensively weak wingers (Schmaltz, Garland, Keller)

Schmaltz -Dvo- Gally
Grabner- Richardson- Vinny
Hayton- Stepan- Keller
Crouse- Wennberg- Garland
Cousins

^we'd finally have three solid checking lines to live the dream!

For all the talk about how Torts wants more from him, he was top eight in forwards for scoring on CLB, top eight in TOI/G , top four in PK TOI, top five in PP TOI, had 6 powerplay points, a shorty, three shorthanded points, while playing third line even strength. He's a useful young guy at C, who has a bit of potential.

 

[Grimes]

And pay him 4.9m to do so?

 

[rt]

If CBJ is willing to retain and take KConn back. I’d at least entertain the idea of Wennberg. As much as I like Richardson, he’ll be 35 next year when his contract expires.

 

[_Del_]

And pay him 4.9m to do so?

We're paying Dvo almost that much next year and he has only slightly better numbers...

I already said I don't have interest at full money.
If they retain 50% and take KConn and Ficsher we add less than half a million in salary. They'd have to retain at least 25% to make me interested. His value goes up with more retention. At 25% and KConn, I'd still flip a mid-round pick to add him. He's valuable as a player and has upside. His contract just sucks right now.

 

[Grimes]

Ah missed the retention part. Yeah I would just be disappointed if that is the only add. And let's send picks, not Fischer. I could actually see Wennberg as a great complement for Fischer.

KConn + 2019 3rd + 2020 for Wennberg at 25% retention?

 

[_Del_]

I really think he's good for 10-15 goals and 20-40 assists in the right role. And before everyone bemoans that sort of production, try to remember our leading scorer had 14 goals and 33 assists with a lot more ice time and crappy defense.

Wennberg will never be a shooter. He's a two-way playmaker. I think he's a solid guy that gets defined by what he isn't, especially because of the contract and draft status. The same way I think Jordan Staal has been a good two-way threat at C, but everyone craps on him because he isn't a good playmaker at C and has an enormous contract. These are both useful guys played within their means.
I'm not sure Wennberg wouldn't be our best center. He's got plenty of skill, and he's solid on defense. Even on his worst season this year, he was a respectable C getting special teams time.
He's just a disappointment in terms of expectations. You pay a young guy $5M, you expect him to be a core player. You want 20 goals and thirty assists. You don't want a guy reluctant to shoot who ends up with two goals playing third line minutes. He's done more in the past, so people expect more. Different situation, different paycheck, different expectations. I think he'd be a solid add.
We have Dvo who is probably ahead of him, but hasn't really proven it. Stepan is a similar guy playing as our topC. Richardson in a career bottom six guy who had a Cinderella year at 34. Cousins who is a fourth liner playing too many minutes up in the lineup. Schmaltz is a good, skilled one-dimensional winger. Or a C who is equal parts dynamic and dreadful defensively.
We have lots of room to utilize this player's strengths.

 

[Jakey53]

I'd keep Fischer (unless in a package for a player like Huberdeau) and try to put him in a system that will get him in front of the net and below the top of the circles which is where he's had his success in the OHL and last year, he's a great net front presence kind of guy (even on the rush he likes to go to the front of the net hard) who's only decent along the boards which is in my opinion why he's looked bad this year. I'm not sure why they've gone to playing almost completely along the boards or on the blue line. There is so little offence from it, which is why a lot of the top teams want to work the middle of the ice with seam passes especially on the PP where you can work the puck Low to high very easily (which Arizona does not). We also like beating a defender and then doing a drop pass for some reason so the guy that was just beat can get back into the play. After you've beaten a defender the defence has to open or tighten up to adjust and thats when you can capitalize on it... which Vinnie Hinostroza is awesome at because he's constantly driving towards the net and beating defenders. I personally believe things like this are the reasons why our top scorer had less than 50 points and we didn't have a single 20 goal scorer.
Theres just less to he had in the systems Arizona has been playing, This team has more talent than when Tippitt was coach but scores at the same rate as Tips all defence no offensive structure (for the record i'm glad Tips gone). I can't believe how many times i've watched per game this team just dump the puck in for a line change with nobody pressuring... which is literally just handing the puck to the other team without any intentions of making it hard on them to retrieve it and set up. People can blame Maclean all they want and i agree he doesn't know what he's doing, but Toccett's the head coach and has allowed him to implement brutal systems for 2 seasons now. Toccett is the head coach of a team with the worst start in NHL history (no new coach should go 2-18 in his first 20 games with no regulation wins, that is a joke). His work with Allen has obviously been good, but his ability to put players in a position where they will succeed with their given skill set, adapt in game decisions (system variations and plays) and provide offensive systems that will succeed throughout 2 seasons has been unforgivably bad.

Great post. Your last sentence is what I have been harping on for awhile.

 

[Jakey53]

His system is definitely different, and it works to the degree our players can play it. We just aren't very talented, and our few talented players aren't engaged. They are more engaged than years past, but it's nothing like good enough.
Agree with just about everything you said. They would get back on their heels and go into "dump and change" mode far too often. Nobody seems interested in playing between the circles, which ironically, was one of Tocch's big talking points last year, but I didn't hear much this year.
It's hard to evaluate this year - a very weird year. They took a step forward as a group, but only one or two players had a "good" year. They showed up to more games than years previous, but still took too many nights off. They didn't get a lot of production, but had a lot of injuries and people playing up in the line up where they didn't belong. We got more points, but they were all from beating up bottom feeders in a horrific west.
Hard to be too disappointed at the end result in the standings, but I'm nothing like excited either.

I agree with most of what you are saying, but I thought OEL, Chucky Richardson, Kuemper, Crouse were engage for most of the year. It's hard to be on the top of your game in a 82 game schedule, and you add in an injury here or there it gets even tougher.

 

[_Del_]

You named five guys out of 20+ to prove your point? I don't think OEL was engaged until the final stretch. The guys who showed every night weren't our core players. That should be concerning. If our "core" was as professional as Richardson, Hammer, Kempe, and Crouse, etc we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Way too many nights off from our "best" players.

 

[Jakey53]

You named five guys out of 20+ to prove your point? I don't think OEL was engaged until the final stretch. The guys who showed every night weren't our core players. That should be concerning. If our "core" was as professional as Richardson, Hammer, Kempe, and Crouse, etc we wouldn't be having this conversation.
Way too many nights off from our "best" players.

Sure Keller and Fischer were relied on and did not step up, but they are young, playing in the toughest league in the world. End result for this year is I'm happy, but I have guarded optimism for next year.

 

[Sinurgy]

I get why someone like Duclair would get in Torts doghouse but how does a supposedly good 2 way player and penalty killer get into his doghouse?!

 

[LuckyNumber11]

Does POJ go to Tucson next year?

 

[DAChampion]

What is this fanbase's perception of Alex Galchenyuk, now that he has plated a nearly complete season here?

 

[Mosby]

Does POJ go to Tucson next year?

He will, though I think he's a good trade chip this summer.

 

[hbk]

What is this fanbase's perception of Alex Galchenyuk, now that he has plated a nearly complete season here?

Too bad he wasn't healthy all year. Love his shot. Think he's good for 25 next year. Likely to get an extension.

 

[hbk]

Does POJ go to Tucson next year?

POJ is 2-3 years away from a NHL job. He will be in the A.

 

[doaner]

What is this fanbase's perception of Alex Galchenyuk, now that he has plated a nearly complete season here?

Love him. Lethal every time he’s on the ice.