Speculation: 2018-19 Roster Discussion #4 - It’s Getting Better All The Time (maybe)

[_Del_]

Kessel@

I'll indulge, but I'd run

Schmaltz -Stepan- Kessel
Keller- Dvo- Galchenyuk
Vinny -Richardson -Grabner
Crouse-- Cousins -Garland

 

[rt]

It sounds like Luongo is going to play, so the dead money idea may be off the table.

Sounds like it’s his preference but he hasn’t yet met with the team. At least that’s the last I heard. New info?

 

[rt]

I'll indulge, but I'd run

Schmaltz -Stepan- Kessel
Keller- Dvo- Galchenyuk
Vinny -Richardson -Grabner
Crouse-- Cousins -Garland

Keller and Schmaltz chemistry can’t be ignored. Schmaltz represents our only hope of a center that can actually gain the offensive zone with possession.

 

[Mosby]

Sounds like it’s his preference but he hasn’t yet met with the team. At least that’s the last I heard. New info?

No new info. My guess is they acquire Bob's rights and send Reimer to CBJ as part of the deal.

 

[_Del_]

Keller and Schmaltz chemistry can’t be ignored. Schmaltz represents our only hope of a center that can actually gain the offensive zone with possession.

Too bad they are dreck defensively. But on the PP, sure.


Schmaltz 17GP 5-9-14 -8
4-3-7 of that came on the PP
So 1-6-7 even strength while -8

Keller 17GP 2-13-15 -9
Eight of those points were on the PP
2-5-7 and -9 even strength

That's good for what, over a goal a game against?

So much gets made of the first four games where Schmaltz and Keller were both 2-3-5 and we went 4-0, but each only had three even strength points in that stretch while Josh Archibald was 2-3-5 and +5 in those same games, several guys with 2 goals, etc Even in those games that line wasn't carrying us alone, it just seemed the most dynamic that we've seen in recent memory.

Taking out those four games where they were white hot (with the rest of the team), Schmaltz is 3-6-9 in 13 games, -9. 1-6-7 even strength.
Keller is 0-10-10, -10 in 13. 0-4-4 even strength.

It's like our own urban legend that these guys were overpowering together. They put up solid numbers, and the PP came alive (both good things), but they weren't carrying the team. We were 8-9 with them together in the lineup, outscored 47-50.

I don't think we win more games with them paired even strength when they are -9/-8 with 3-12-14 combined.

For comparison in the same 17 game stretch:
Cousins: 3-5-8, +/-0 even strength
Archibald: 3-4-7, +1 even strength
Panik: 3-4-7, +/- 0 even strength
Keller: 2-5-7, -9 even strength
Schmaltz: 1-6-7, -8 even strength

Why in the world would we keep them together 5v5?! If we decide the four games were an anomaly, the numbers all just get worse.

 

[Imaravencawcaw]

Too bad they are dreck defensively. But on the PP, sure.


Schmaltz 17GP 5-9-14 -8
4-3-7 of that came on the PP
So 1-6-7 even strength while -8

Keller 17GP 2-13-15 -9
Eight of those points were on the PP
2-5-7 and -9 even strength

That's good for what, over a goal a game against?

So much gets made of the first four games where Schmaltz and Keller were both 2-3-5 and we went 4-0, but each only had three even strength points in that stretch while Josh Archibald was 2-3-5 and +5 in those same games, several guys with 2 goals, etc Even in those games that line wasn't carrying us alone, it just seemed the most dynamic that we've seen in recent memory.

Taking out those four games where they were white hot (with the rest of the team), Schmaltz is 3-6-9 in 13 games, -9. 1-6-7 even strength.
Keller is 0-10-10, -10 in 13. 0-4-4 even strength.

It's like our own urban legend that these guys were overpowering together. They put up solid numbers, and the PP came alive (both good things), but they weren't carrying the team. We were 8-9 with them together in the lineup, outscored 47-50.

I don't think we win more games with them paired even strength when they are -9/-8 with 3-12-14 combined.

For comparison in the same 17 game stretch:
Cousins: 3-5-8, +/-0 even strength
Archibald: 3-4-7, +1 even strength
Panik: 3-4-7, +/- 0 even strength
Keller: 2-5-7, -9 even strength
Schmaltz: 1-6-7, -10 even strength

Why in the world would we keep them together 5v5?!

You've conveniently forgotten that those 17 games were during one of the hardest stretches of the season:

• 10 of 17 games on the road including a 4-game east coaster from Boston to Carolina and 3-game California trip.
• 4(!!!!) back-to-backs in 17 games. That's 8 of the 17 games played as part of a back-to-back.
• Lost 6 games to playoff teams (WSH, SJS, @BOS, @car, VGK).
• Lost at Buffalo during their 10 winning streak at which point they had the most points in the NHL.
• Other 2 losses to 96 point MTL and @LAK (no excuses there).
• No Dvo or Demers due to injuries
• 1st game Schmaltz played were the last 2 periods that Raanta played this season.
• Keumper missed 5 games, say hello to your goalie rotation of Hill/Miska/Pickard.
• Grabner plays in only 2 of those games before his eye injury.
• Hinostroza misses 10 of the 17 games.
• Galchenyuk misses 3 games with groin/knee.
• Richardson misses 3 games due to illness.

Also, stop using +/- to advance an argument, 99% of the time its a completely meaningless stat. During Schmaltz's 17 games Coyotes goalies had an .873 save% while he was on the ice. .873. That's having a slightly worse Calvin Pickard in net for every shift you're on the ice. Go look at the +/- stats for the Flyers when Pickard was their goalie and I'm sure you'll see some similar numbers. Sure Keller/Schmaltz are not gonna win any Selkes any time soon, but when your goalies are atrociously bad it's hard to blame them for a bad +/- stat, it's not like they gave up a continuous stream of breakaways to the opponents. Schmaltz also came from the LOLWTFISDEFENSE Blackhawks team and had to learn where to be in Tocchet's system.

 

[rt]

Too bad they are dreck defensively. But on the PP, sure.


Schmaltz 17GP 5-9-14 -8
4-3-7 of that came on the PP
So 1-6-7 even strength while -8

Keller 17GP 2-13-15 -9
Eight of those points were on the PP
2-5-7 and -9 even strength

That's good for what, over a goal a game against?

So much gets made of the first four games where Schmaltz and Keller were both 2-3-5 and we went 4-0, but each only had three even strength points in that stretch while Josh Archibald was 2-3-5 and +5 in those same games, several guys with 2 goals, etc Even in those games that line wasn't carrying us alone, it just seemed the most dynamic that we've seen in recent memory.

Taking out those four games where they were white hot (with the rest of the team), Schmaltz is 3-6-9 in 13 games, -9. 1-6-7 even strength.
Keller is 0-10-10, -10 in 13. 0-4-4 even strength.

It's like our own urban legend that these guys were overpowering together. They put up solid numbers, and the PP came alive (both good things), but they weren't carrying the team. We were 8-9 with them together in the lineup, outscored 47-50.

I don't think we win more games with them paired even strength when they are -9/-8 with 3-12-14 combined.

For comparison in the same 17 game stretch:
Cousins: 3-5-8, +/-0 even strength
Archibald: 3-4-7, +1 even strength
Panik: 3-4-7, +/- 0 even strength
Keller: 2-5-7, -9 even strength
Schmaltz: 1-6-7, -8 even strength

Why in the world would we keep them together 5v5?! If we decide the four games were an anomaly, the numbers all just get worse.

It’s more that those were the only 17 games Keller appeared to have a pulse. But good points. PP is probably enough. I’d still put them together to see if Schmaltz can resuscitate Keller again.

 

[_Del_]

• Keumper missed 5 games, say hello to your goalie rotation of Hill/Miska/Pickard.

Adin Hill rocked a .915 save % in 10 games played, nine starts.

Keumper was .900 in his six. The other start was Raanta.

Neither Miska or Pickard played in those 17 games. You're making things up.

During Schmaltz's 17 games Coyotes goalies had an .873 save% while he was on the ice. .873. That's having a slightly worse Calvin Pickard in net for every shift you're on the ice.

Further, if Hill was .915 in his ten games, and Keumper .900 in his but those numbers dropped to .873 with Schmaltz on the ice, that's even more evidence that it was a disaster 5v5 . He helped turned a goaltender with greater than .900 save % into a goalie worse than Pickard. Amazing. What do Hill's numbers look like over that same stretch when Schmaltz isn't on the ice? Higher than .915 because his average is being drug down by the .873 sample.


How did seven players manage to be plus players and EVERY SINGLE other forward manage to be better than -8 with those guys?

Nick freaking Cousins managed to outscore them both even strength over those same 17 games, and managed to be a plus player behind the same goaltending. Archibald and Panik matched their even strength scoring and eight/nine fewer goals were scored against while they did it. With the all the same excuses.

 

[Canis Latrans]

There's no way they aren't tried together at even-strength. Even if they do end up faltering defensively, they'll be given a chance to demonstrate it in tandem.

Perhaps a deal can be swung with Minnesota to acquire Zucker or another of their left wings. Zucker's NTC kicks in this summer. If not him, they have lesser options and a logjam at left wing now that they've acquired Fiala and Donato. I wouldn't be shocked if a deal for some one like Greenway could pass early into next season once line-ups are more determined.

Anyway, both teams are more loaded on the opposite wings according to rosters is all, even if it's one of the lowest priorities when it comes to roster building.

 

[_Del_]

When Rick Tocchet gets tired of losing games, maybe he'll finally split them even strength. Or get Schmaltz away from C and get a responsible 2/3 guy with skill to center them at minimum.