Speculation: 2018-19 Roster Discussion #3 - Not so bad at the moment

[Foggy1097]

Future roster mock up, versions 82,765

Numbers in parentheses are cash, not cap.

* = re-signed RFA estimation
** = UFA signing estimation

Keller (0.83) - Schmaltz (5.5)* - Stone (9)**
Galchenyuk (4.9) - Stepan (5) - Fischer (0.83)
Grabner (3.8) - Dvorak (3.25) - Garland (2)*
Crouse (1.75)* - Richardson (1.4) - Hinostroza (1.5)
Bunting (0.8)*

OEL (8) - Hammer (6)
Chychrun (2.6) - Demers (3.2)
Capo (0.73) - xxxx (x)
KConn (1.5)

Raanta (5)
Kuemper (2.1)

Hossa (1)
Ribeiro (1.9)

Released: Panik, Weal, Kempe (or Tucson), Archibald (RFA/Tucson), Bush (Tucson or 8th D), Oesterle, Pickard, Bolland, Cousins, Dauphin (RFA/Tucson)


This comes out to about $73 mil, which is about $5 mil more than we're spending this season. That could be covered off in the cap floor bump alone.

It also does not include Goligoski at 5.8, who in the above could be moved for a cheaper 3rd pairing RD.

Only addition is Stone, and everyone getting healthy. Is it enough scoring? Is the RD depth good enough? What about the center depth? Still kinda average.

As you can see with the released players, we have too many forwards, so we may have to cut loose guys like Cousins rather than re-sign them, and then replace them internally at cheaper cost. I've also left off guys knocking on the door like Merkley and potentially Hayton.

We definitely have too many forwards if we sign Stone or anyone else for that matter...and that’s even if we move Panik which will happen. I would put money on Hayton making the team next year and sticking around past his 9 games. All of this makes me think that moving Fischer and/or Merkley has to be given strong consideration if I’m Chayka. I would love to upgrade Fischer with someone like Stone or Kreider. Stone will likely be too pricey to acquire through trade. I bet if he offered NYR Fischer + Merkely + 2nd or 3rd round pick he could get Kreider. Next year would look pretty amazing on paper...

Kreider - Dvorak - Keller
Galchenyuk - Hayton - Schmaltz
Grabner - Stepan - Hinostroza
Crouse - Richardson - Garland

 

[Foggy1097]

If Hayton is going to be what they are thinking/hoping he will be, there is no point bringing in an expensive center through trade or free agency. That is, unless they decide to trade Stepan. If you want to bring in a Duchene or Tyler Johnson type of guy then Stepan will have to be moved because you’re not going to have, for example: Duchene, Dvorak, Stepan, and then Hayton as your 4th center...it just doesn’t make sense to acquire a Duchene unless Stepan is going the other way.

 

[rt]

I don’t see Hayton being an impact NHL player next year.

 

[Imaravencawcaw]

I don't know how much he'd cost but I'd be willing to take a stab at Adam McQuaid for the 3RD. Give us a little grit and just be a pain in the *** to play against. Also would help the PK.

I'd rather keep Lyubushkin who's already in our system filling that role and is making less than half of McQuaid.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

I don’t see Hayton being an impact NHL player ever.

Fixed it for you! I just don't see at any point he'll produce more than 60pts.

 

[Mosby]

I'd rather hang on to Fischer and watch him turn into Kreider than trade for the older and more expensive version.

 

[Mosby]

I don't know how much he'd cost but I'd be willing to take a stab at Adam McQuaid for the 3RD. Give us a little grit and just be a pain in the *** to play against. Also would help the PK.

Did this guy change his username to the Spittin Chiclets promo code? Awesome.

 

[AZviaNJ]

I'd rather keep Lyubushkin who's already in our system filling that role and is making less than half of McQuaid.

Lybush is already a better player than McQuaid is currently, McQuaid's lost a step he didn't have to lose.

 

[Mosby]

The other reason why I'd like to re-sign guys like Archibald and Kempe to two-way deals is were kinda running Tucson dry if we promote Bunting, Garland, and potentially Merkley. We don't really have many guys knocking on the door to play in Tucson next year either. Maybe Schnarr. Hayton is still too young.

Forwards drafted from 2015 to 2017:

Entwistle - traded
Schnarr - Tucson
EWW - probably still Sweden
Keller - NHL
Strome - traded
Merkley - probably injured
Fischer - NHL
Warren - traded
Looke - already in Tucson
Garland - NHL

The pipeline has run kind of dry. I bet we go heavy on forwards this draft.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

If Hayton is going to be what they are thinking/hoping he will be, there is no point bringing in an expensive center through trade or free agency. That is, unless they decide to trade Stepan. If you want to bring in a Duchene or Tyler Johnson type of guy then Stepan will have to be moved because you’re not going to have, for example: Duchene, Dvorak, Stepan, and then Hayton as your 4th center...it just doesn’t make sense to acquire a Duchene unless Stepan is going the other way.

Seriously? Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, dude. We went from strong up the middle to weak up the middle in the blink of an eye this year. I would jump on the chance to get a 1C.

 

[Mosby]

His NTC kicked in, depends if he's willing to go here

True, but almost everyone on Tampa has a NTC/NMC it seems, or has one that kicks in soon (Miller, Kucherov, Gourde, etc.).

 

[AZviaNJ]

True, but almost everyone on Tampa has a NTC/NMC it seems, or has one that kicks in soon (Miller, Kucherov, Gourde, etc.).

Which makes offer sheeting Point really interesting. Girardi, Coburn and Stalman are all UFA's after the season which carves $11M out, but also creates a very young blue line after Hedman and McDonough. Bolts have already have 6 forwards locked up for 5 or more years.

Point, and his 66 points in 52 games, would be a great fit for any team that can afford him. What does he get in an offer sheet? 9x7? 10x7?

Keller-Schmaltz-Point
Galchenyuk-Dvo-Hinostroza
Grabner-Hayton-Garland
Cousins-Richardson-Fischer
Crouse, Archibald

Trade Stepan or be prepared for the early injury bug in 2019-2020.

 

[moosemeister]

Seriously? Don’t count your chickens before they hatch, dude. We went from strong up the middle to weak up the middle in the blink of an eye this year. I would jump on the chance to get a 1C.

This. Hayton won’t be an impact NHL player next year and he probably won’t ever be a #1. Let Richies contract expire or trade Stepan. No one in our system will reach #1 center currently

 

[Hogan20]

Did this guy change his username to the Spittin Chiclets promo code? Awesome.

Yes. Yes I did

 

[SniperHF]

Yes. Yes I did

Hey I remember .750 in 2018 (think I coined that)

Too bad it lasted only a week But they still did pretty good. Might need to actually do that to make the playoffs.


Colorado's collapse is really helping things. St. Louis is on pace for the last WC right now with a .520 ish points percentage. That works out to about 85 points for the last spot (I think it ends up higher though but for now).

So if my maths work right we only need .587 the rest of the way to hit 85 points. To hit the more normal playoff target we'll need .758!

But the good news is I don't think any of those other teams in our area have a similar run in them except maybe Colorado. So it might only take 90 points (.670)

 

[RABBIT]

Christian Dvorak cleared for contact? He is wearing a white jersey in practice today, not a yellow one

 

[Mosby]

Re: Point. I think you have to go at least 10 mil to give Tampa pause. I think they can squeeze in a lesser number. It wouldn’t be pretty, but possible. Tampa can also offer Point the full 8 years.

The other interesting wrinkle with Tampa is what if this core falls on its face in the playoffs again? That may be on the coach, but they also choked in Game 7 last year too.

 

[GiveAFlyingPuck]

Hey I remember .750 in 2018 (think I coined that)

Too bad it lasted only a week But they still did pretty good. Might need to actually do that to make the playoffs.


Colorado's collapse is really helping things. St. Louis is on pace for the last WC right now with a .520 ish points percentage. That works out to about 85 points for the last spot (I think it ends up higher though but for now).

So if my maths work right we only need .587 the rest of the way to hit 85 points. To hit the more normal playoff target we'll need .758!

But the good news is I don't think any of those other teams in our area have a similar run in them except maybe Colorado. So it might only take 90 points (.670)

The .670 will take 19 wins with 28 left to play. We play WPG, CGY, VGK 2 times each. Thats an easy 6 losses there. We're probably out of time.

 

[cobra427]

The .670 will take 19 wins with 28 left to play. We play WPG, CGY, VGK 2 times each. Thats an easy 6 losses there. We're probably out of time.

Too many injuries to expect us to make it, even though 87 points might do it. In the back of my mind, I think we make it because this would be the unlikely way we get in with 7 starters out most of the year

 

[Jamieh]

Re: Point. I think you have to go at least 10 mil to give Tampa pause. I think they can squeeze in a lesser number. It wouldn’t be pretty, but possible. Tampa can also offer Point the full 8 years.

The other interesting wrinkle with Tampa is what if this core falls on its face in the playoffs again? That may be on the coach, but they also choked in Game 7 last year too.

They presently have about $10 million in Cap space for next season, Point signed at $8 would be very difficult for them to match without throwing players off the bus, especially with Vashilevskiy and Sergachev coming next year.

 

[Foggy1097]

I'd rather hang on to Fischer and watch him turn into Kreider than trade for the older and more expensive version.

I don’t think Fischer is turning into Kreider anytime soon, if ever. Maybe I’m one of the few who feel this way, but I’ve been extremely disappointed in his play ever since the first 15-20 games of the year. He just doesn’t do enough...he’s like the new Perlini for me. Has tools and doesn’t use them to his advantage, and looks lackadaisical way too often.

 

[Mosby]

If we had some healthy bodies, I might scratch Fischer for a game. Give him a bit of a reset. But that's just not an option right now. I'd rather play Fischer than Bunting.

 

[Mosby]

They presently have about $10 million in Cap space for next season, Point signed at $8 would be very difficult for them to match without throwing players off the bus, especially with Vashilevskiy and Sergachev coming next year.

Just had another look at their cap. It really is complicated. At least 2 guys will need to go now that I think of it. The blueline will need to be very young as there is no way to re-sign Stralman, Coburn, or Giardi unless they're willing to take $1M. Maybe Callahan goes on LTIR.

 

[Hogan20]

Just had another look at their cap. It really is complicated. At least 2 guys will need to go now that I think of it. The blueline will need to be very young as there is no way to re-sign Stralman, Coburn, or Giardi unless they're willing to take $1M. Maybe Callahan goes on LTIR.

Do you think we could pry Johnson out of there hands by taking on Callahan? He only has one year remaining.

 

[Mosby]

I'd rather just do like a 2nd rounder for Johnson and have them keep Callahan. If Callahan can't play, that's a different story.