Prospect Info: 2018-19 Prospects Thread II (CHL, NCAA, Junior A, Europe)

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avsfan09

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Dec 17, 2010
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We can only lose one....
Yes... but it means they would have the choice between lets say Jost and Compher. Lets say god forbid Jost breaks out. Now we lose a more valuable guy that we would have been able to protect if we didn't use that slot on Makar.
 

avsfan09

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Dec 17, 2010
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We can only lose one....
Yes... but it means they would have the choice between lets say Jost and Compher. Lets say god forbid Jost breaks out. Now we lose a more valuable guy that we would have been able to protect if we didn't use that slot on Makar.
 

avsfan09

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It's too far away to even really speculate about who exactly we will lose. We don't know if Barrie will still be here, we don't know if we land a big fish UFA, or if EJ will waive his protection slot. We don't even know if Makar will be available to sign before our season is over. All we can be sure of, looking at the roster and prospects, is that SOMEBODY will go to Seattle that we don't want to lose.
The point is why would we not give ourselves the option to choose? We can minimize the damage that way. Why lose a potential top six guy when we can atleast the better player and force them to take a third liner.
 

avsfan09

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I think nobody here will be happy if Kerfoot is still on the team in 2021. :sarcasm:

Look, I typed out a whole response running different protection scenarios, and all it did was reinforce my belief that it's too early to think about. No matter how I slice and dice this team up, somehow, a good young player is exposed unless all of our prospects fail, especially if we land the UFA top sixer that everybody wants this summer. That's with and without Makar being eligible to protect.

It's not worth worrying about this far in advance. You put together the best team you can long term, and live with losing a player you like.
It's too early to worry about our teams future? Thats a horrible piece of logic. Sorry for picking on your posts but I strongly disagree. We should prepare to put our squad in the best situation. A couple of meaningless games for Makar isnt worth sacrificing a potential top sixer or top 4 dman.
 

McMetal

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Sep 29, 2015
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It's too early to worry about our teams future? Thats a horrible piece of logic. Sorry for picking on your posts but I strongly disagree. We should prepare to put our squad in the best situation. A couple of meaningless games for Makar isnt worth sacrificing a potential top sixer or top 4 dman.
The best way to prepare for the expansion draft by my reckoning is to not sign any big UFAs this summer, because they would need protecting. Are you seriously prepared to pass up a chance to help secondary scoring just because we may lose a slightly better player two years from now? That's awful team management to be so scared of an expansion draft that you don't upgrade your team now.
 

McMetal

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Sep 29, 2015
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The point is why would we not give ourselves the option to choose? We can minimize the damage that way. Why lose a potential top six guy when we can atleast the better player and force them to take a third liner.
Do yourself a favor and try running potential protection scenarios in your head. Unless our prospects regress to third liners, we will not have enough protection slots to avoid losing a top sixer or top 4 D. The rules are kind of designed for that. Unless we pay even more assets to Seattle to not take one of them, we're going to lose a good player.

Try it, write them down, with and without Barrie, with and without EJ and Makar and Kevin Hayes and all the other possible changes to this roster in two years. Maybe tomorrow if I have time I'll write it all put and show my work, but it's too many variables to be making solid plans right now.
 

dmac7719

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Apr 27, 2018
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If there is a chance for Makar to play in the NHL this season, you play him in the NHL. 1 game of experience in the NHL is more valuable than any amount of time spent in the AHL.
 

Perratrooper

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May 26, 2016
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Assuming Makar is draft protected:
MacK
Landy
Rants
Jost
Kaut
Compher
UFA forward

EJ
Girard
Zadorov

Who knows what are goaltending will be like

If Makar isn’t protected trade a first and get them to pick someone you want them to instead.
 

AllAboutAvs

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Assuming Makar is draft protected:
MacK
Landy
Rants
Jost
Kaut
Compher
UFA forward

EJ
Girard
Zadorov

Who knows what are goaltending will be like

If Makar isn’t protected trade a first and get them to pick someone you want them to instead.
Kaut won't need protection unless he plays more than 9 games in the NHL.

Makar will need protection the minute he steps on an NHL ice or an AHL ice with an ELC. He would be OK with an AHL ATO.
 

avsfan09

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The best way to prepare for the expansion draft by my reckoning is to not sign any big UFAs this summer, because they would need protecting. Are you seriously prepared to pass up a chance to help secondary scoring just because we may lose a slightly better player two years from now? That's awful team management to be so scared of an expansion draft that you don't upgrade your team now.
I still feel like your missing the point but at this point we've taken up too much space getting no where. Not having to protect Makar gives us an extra player we can protect right?

I never said we shouldn't sign ufa's or that we won't lose a good player. So as for the bolded that seems like a strawman. Its not being scared of the expansion draft. Its wanting to be prepared as best as possible.
 

AllAboutAvs

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The best way to prepare for the expansion draft by my reckoning is to not sign any big UFAs this summer, because they would need protecting. Are you seriously prepared to pass up a chance to help secondary scoring just because we may lose a slightly better player two years from now? That's awful team management to be so scared of an expansion draft that you don't upgrade your team now.
No you can bring UFAs in until then and when the tie comes you can decide if you want to protect them or not depending of your other assets at the time. What you don't do is give a handful of games to a kid - that will most likely not have a major impact on the team during the playoffs due to limited playing time - which is a move that will most likely force you to expose another very good piece.

The disconnect that bothers me from people that are willing to play Makar this year is that I hear that we must make moves right now to not risk to lose Mack five years from now but the XD which is two years away is too far down the road to take into considerations. This not directed at you specifically as I'm not sure if you are one of these guys regarding Mack.
 
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henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
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I'd say odds are pretty high Makar isn't available for the regular season... then you'd be expecting Bednar to throw a rookie straight out of college and not knowing his system to the wolves against Nashville/Winnipeg/Calgary if the Avs did make the playoffs. It doesn't make sense to pull that with Makar outside of the expansion draft, let alone with the extra slot. Hold him out this year (let him get a taste with the Eagles) and let him rock next year.
 

Selzoons

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Mar 3, 2018
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There aren't that many possibilities, the crux is the defensemen and not the forwards. Playing Makar is a terrible idea unless Sakic has talked to EJ already and knows he's willing to waive his NMC to help the team, in which case it's still a bad idea.

Assuming Johnson isn't willing to waive:

Locks
Mackinnon
Rantanen
Landeskog
Girard

NMC
Johnson

So the options are actually:
4f/1d
1f/2d

If you play, Makar you're down to:
4f
1f/1d

First option, the Avs lose the most valuable of Zadorov and Barrie (or equivalent value).
Second option, the Avs lose the least valuable of Zadorov and Barrie (or equivalent value).

Trading Barrie doesn't help for the expansion draft unless it's for futures in which case the team is set back. If you do trade Barrie for a forward, you're either losing Zadorov or the second most valuable forward of: Barrie trade, UFA, Jost, and Compher. In either case, it's terrible asset management for a few games of NHL experience for Makar.

You can't just make a deal with Seattle to not pick certain players because Seattle will be in a position of strength and won't make the trade unless they think they're winning the deal. You're putting yourself in a position to potentially lose even more assets in that case.

The Avs are more likely to lose MacK because we lost a top-4 defenseman or top-6 forward for free, rather than not playing a 20 year old with zero NHL experience in a third pairing role for a handful of games.

Edit: Forgot it's 8 players and not 4f/4d for a second doesn't really make a difference for the Avalanche.
 
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henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
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Trading assets to protect players from expansion is not worth it. Vegas abused teams that wanted to do that.

Yup... just accept losing a player and move on. Don't make dumb moves to hurt yourself. IMO the one big consideration is going to be EJ with his NMC... at his age and cap hit, it might be a waive or get bought out sort of situation.
 

Selzoons

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Mar 3, 2018
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Can the Avs can afford to buyout EJ? He still has lots of term. Sounds like it'd be crippling cap-wise.

If there are amnesty buyouts in the new CBA that would be a game changer.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
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If EJ won’t waive then we buy him out unless he ages much better than expect :dunno:

Considering what we've seen already on his decline, I can't imagine 2 more years making that picture any better. It would be $2m per year for 4 years, but likely worth it.

Can the Avs can afford to buyout EJ? He still has lots of term. Sounds like it'd be crippling cap-wise.

If there are amnesty buyouts in the new CBA that would be a game changer.

In 2021 he will have 2 seasons left, and the Avs can afford any buyout. Beauch's buyout was more money wise than EJ's would be.
 
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cgf

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Oct 15, 2010
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Considering what we've seen already on his decline, I can't imagine 2 more years making that picture any better. It would be $2m per year for 4 years, but likely worth it.

Probably, but it's still possible that EJ's age ends up showing more in the frequency & duration of his time off due to injuries, than in his play when actually on the ice.
 
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AllAboutAvs

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Yup... just accept losing a player and move on. Don't make dumb moves to hurt yourself. IMO the one big consideration is going to be EJ with his NMC... at his age and cap hit, it might be a waive or get bought out sort of situation.
I can't speak for everybody but IMO we all agree with this. We all know we will lose somebody good. How good is the question. I think the disagreement is only with Makar. Why play him a few games (with limited ice time most likely) just to expose a better player? Sign UFA(s) and make trades if they make sense regardless of the XD (you can always keep it in mind though). Then when the time comes you decide if they are worth protecting over one of our existing player.
 
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Barklez

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Mar 27, 2011
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Do yourself a favor and try running potential protection scenarios in your head. Unless our prospects regress to third liners, we will not have enough protection slots to avoid losing a top sixer or top 4 D. The rules are kind of designed for that. Unless we pay even more assets to Seattle to not take one of them, we're going to lose a good player.

Try it, write them down, with and without Barrie, with and without EJ and Makar and Kevin Hayes and all the other possible changes to this roster in two years. Maybe tomorrow if I have time I'll write it all put and show my work, but it's too many variables to be making solid plans right now.

77810eec-e0dc-44a3-aa1f-d99d05ed7941_text.gif
 
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hockeyviking

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Jan 8, 2012
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Do we realy think that a 33 year old EJ whit a contract of 6 mil is of interest to Seattle ? If he had one year left Maybe they could trade him at the deadline but he will be having 2 years left
 
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