2017 Draft Discussion - Part I

[hbk]

I'm all for swinging for the fences with a top pick, but Liljegren is far too risky. Chychrun was a different situation. There were questions about his decisions with the puck, but he was fine to good defensively and had a physical package that kept his floor pretty high. I didn't expect him to make the team last year either, but I always figured he would be no worse than a passable 2nd pairing guy at his best.

Liljegren is a riskier prospect. He's got similar red flags, namely his decision-making with the puck, but lacks the peripheral traits that made Chychrun so safe. With Liljegren, the downside isn't Jordan Leopold—it's David Tanabe.

Loved Tanabe's skating. I would pay money just to watch him skate.

That being said. Great post. I was just about to write that "safe" might be the way to go. For some reason I keep coming back to Rasmussen. What he does, he does well and it will translate to the pro game.

 

[IPreferPi]

It's the swing for the fences pick. Fantastic skating but we're his struggles a sign of lack of hockey IQ or a player who just tried to do way too much. AZ took a look at Chychrun last year and just said if he simplified his game he will be better and the kid outright stole a roster spot 2 years earlier than anyone expected.

This is a draft that after 2 you are looking at 2/3rd line players and 3/4 D. Liljegeren has legitimate top pairing potential.

Chychrun is a much toolsier player than Liljegren - his size and skating and defensive play gave him a high floor that survived an earlier than expected transition to the NHL. Liljegren only has one of those things at this moment.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

Since I know basically jack about this draft I'll ask:

Are there any scenarios you can see where it would actually be worth it to trade up? Does anyone have a list where whomever is at say #5 is significantly better than 6-7 and worth giving up something for?

Admittedly, I know less about the kiddos than most, but I would think that if Patrick's injuries cause 1, and 3 to pass on him, I would trade up to 4 to snag him.

Are there any Matthew Tkachuc style power forwards out there? I would like to add some size as well as speed.

 

[PhoPhan]

Loved Tanabe's skating. I would pay money just to watch him skate.

That being said. Great post. I was just about to write that "safe" might be the way to go. For some reason I keep coming back to Rasmussen. What he does, he does well and it will translate to the pro game.

I still don't even have Rasmussen in the first round. How many players of that size are top 6 players in the NHL? How many players as immobile as he is are top 6 guys? If absolutely everything goes right, I could see a Martin Hanzal type of career (minus the injuries, hopefully), but that's a relatively low ceiling for such a risky pick.

Chychrun is a much toolsier player than Liljegren - his size and skating and defensive play gave him a high floor that survived an earlier than expected transition to the NHL. Liljegren only has one of those things at this moment.

Another thing that worries me about Liljegren is his style. It would be one thing if he were an aggressive run-and-gun type of guy whose mistakes were often cancelled out by amazing plays, but he doesn't have the same approach as someone like Erik Karlsson. David Rundblad with great wheels would be a better comparison, in my opinion. Maybe his upside is Cam Fowler or Morgan Rielly. Good offensive skills, but kind of a low-energy sort of approach.

 

[hbk]

I still don't even have Rasmussen in the first round. How many players of that size are top 6 players in the NHL? How many players as immobile as he is are top 6 guys? If absolutely everything goes right, I could see a Martin Hanzal type of career (minus the injuries, hopefully), but that's a relatively low ceiling for such a risky pick.



Another thing that worries me about Liljegren is his style. It would be one thing if he were an aggressive run-and-gun type of guy whose mistakes were often cancelled out by amazing plays, but he doesn't have the same approach as someone like Erik Karlsson. David Rundblad with great wheels would be a better comparison, in my opinion. Maybe his upside is Cam Fowler or Morgan Rielly. Good offensive skills, but kind of a low-energy sort of approach.

i think Rasmussen's game translates. 20 goal 3rd line C that is money in the slot. If his playmaking translates he's a 40-50 point player. It's not sexy I get that but I like adding size to this relatively small roster. Enough to put in top 7. I haven't made my list yet but he's in the mix for top 10.

 

[IPreferPi]

i think Rasmussen's game translates. 20 goal 3rd line C that is money in the slot. If his playmaking translates he's a 40-50 point player. It's not sexy I get that but I like adding size to this relatively small roster. Enough to put in top 7. I haven't made my list yet but he's in the mix for top 10.

Yeah, I'd like to aim a little higher for a top 10 pick. Rasmussen has a low ceiling and a low floor from what I've seen out of him. I'd probably take Owen Tippett nine times out of ten at 7OA over him, and Tippett has warts too.

 

[IPreferPi]

Are there any Matthew Tkachuc style power forwards out there? I would like to add some size as well as speed.

Vilardi.

 

[Murf]

If this draft is projected to look like 1999, you are going to have 3-4 good players, a dozen or so journeymen and the rest will never break through. We aren't in position to grab the Sedins of this draft, so my hope is that they can find the Taylor Pyatt, and avoid the Pavel Brendl.

 

[PhoPhan]

i think Rasmussen's game translates. 20 goal 3rd line C that is money in the slot. If his playmaking translates he's a 40-50 point player. It's not sexy I get that but I like adding size to this relatively small roster. Enough to put in top 7. I haven't made my list yet but he's in the mix for top 10.

I think you can find a player with that sort of upside with the Wild pick. I can see the need for size up front in this organization, but Vilardi or Glass could be there, and if not, there are some bullish wings like Vesalainen, Kostin, Robertson, Gadjovich, Ratcliffe and Safin who could bring those same traits. You can swing for the fences with the first pick and still wind up with a 3C with the second pick in Poehling or Thomas or Andersson.

Yeah, I'd like to aim a little higher for a top 10 pick. Rasmussen has a low ceiling and a low floor from what I've seen out of him. I'd probably take Owen Tippett nine times out of ten at 7OA over him, and Tippett has warts too.

Yep. Every draft-eligible prospect has warts, especially this year. Draft the ones whose warts you think you can remove or at least cover up. Big, speedy wings with big, heavy shots are generally more fruitful than immobile centers. Rasmussen is probably a worse skater than Strome was at the same age, and Strome had far better hands and vision and is still not quite NHL ready two full seasons later.

If this draft is projected to look like 1999, you are going to have 3-4 good players, a dozen or so journeymen and the rest will never break through. We aren't in position to grab the Sedins of this draft, so my hope is that they can find the Taylor Pyatt, and avoid the Pavel Brendl.

I'll be shocked if it's that bad. A better comparison would be 2007 or 2011, in my opinion.

 

[Mosby]

Maybe just trade down to about 12 or so and take Tolvanen.

I like him but he's a bit of a reach at 7 and I don't suspect he'll be around by the Wild pick.

 

[IPreferPi]

If this draft is projected to look like 1999, you are going to have 3-4 good players, a dozen or so journeymen and the rest will never break through. We aren't in position to grab the Sedins of this draft, so my hope is that they can find the Taylor Pyatt, and avoid the Pavel Brendl.

Just because there is a lack of bonafide superstar talent like there has been in the past two drafts does it mean it's partying like its 1999 again. No analyst is saying it's the worst since 1999.

And even then, you still suck it up and try to get the most skilled guy in the draft with your top pick. Taylor Pyatts are a dime a dozen in later rounds or in free agency.

 

[DesertDawg]

I wonder if Dallas would like to trade down.

 

[RABBIT]

I wonder if Dallas would like to trade down.

They just got top 3 pick for the first time in many years off of pure luck. I doubt it.

 

[DesertDawg]

They just got top 3 pick for the first time in many years off of pure luck. I doubt it.

But would you consider Chychrun more to their liking than the #3 pick?
I'm also considering Eakin.
Dallas' 3rd overall and Eakin
for
AZ' 7th overall and expansion exempt Chychrun.
IMO it's too much to give up

 

[Mosby]

I'd rather have Chychrun than 3. Not even close IMO.

 

[zerekstar]

I'd rather have Chychrun than 3. Not even close IMO.

ditto

 

[BUX7PHX]

If this draft is projected to look like 1999, you are going to have 3-4 good players, a dozen or so journeymen and the rest will never break through. We aren't in position to grab the Sedins of this draft, so my hope is that they can find the Taylor Pyatt, and avoid the Pavel Brendl.

That is part of the reason why I keep mentioning Lias Andersson. His upside may not be as high as others, but 19 points in 42 games as an 18 year old in the SHL is. If there are question marks about the level to which some of these players develop, then go with someone where the floor is high enough to warrant them a roster spot in the NHL most years.

 

[mouser]

They just got top 3 pick for the first time in many years off of pure luck. I doubt it.

Yeah, first top 3 pick in nearly three decades.

 

[Jakey53]

He has a right to an opinion, but the team would be better served if he kept it to himself. Especially when the Kovalachuk news hit last week and Daryl said something that could easily be considered as tampering.

How is it tampering?

 

[IPreferPi]

How is it tampering?

Teams making public comments about being interested in players still under contract to other teams = tampering. Not rocket science, it's codified in By-Law 15.

Even if Daryl's official relationship to the team now is possibly under question, its better to err on the side of caution instead of flapping your gums. Because the NHL has gone after seemingly innocuous comments for tampering before, most recently Jim Bening last summer.

 

[DesertDawg]

Teams making public comments about being interested in players still under contract to other teams = tampering. Not rocket science, it's codified in By-Law 15.

Even if Daryl's official relationship to the team now is possibly under question, its better to err on the side of caution instead of flapping your gums. Because the NHL has gone after seemingly innocuous comments for tampering before, most recently Jim Bening last summer.

The contract was terminated.

 

[XX]

The contract was terminated.

NJ still has his rights in a way. Also, it's just common sense that you don't talk about players outside the organization unless it's praise. This ****** nozzle is also spouting off about potential draft targets.

 

[DesertDawg]

NJ still has his rights in a way. Also, it's just common sense that you don't talk about players outside the organization unless it's praise. This ****** nozzle is also spouting off about potential draft targets.

It may not be proper etiquette, but it is not tampering unless if a player is under contract.

 

[IPreferPi]

It may not be proper etiquette, but it is not tampering unless if a player is under contract.

Again, I'd rather play it safe and not take that ****ing chance.

 

[rt]

Jets pick at 13, right? I wonder if that Minnesota pick ends up 22nd, whether Winnipeg might be willing to move down from 13 to 22 if we dangle 35. That is if one of Liljegren or Makar are on the board at 13th. I cite Winnipeg specifically because they're about the last team in the league that needs a right-shot D.

Exchanging 7, 22, and 35 for Necas and Liljegren feels like a very nice first day of the draft to me. Basically a mirror of the Keller and Chychrun maneuvering last year. Just the right handed shot version of that.