2017 Draft Discussion - Part I

[rt]

Concerning AJHL, Makar was top five in scoring. Led a D in scoring by a huge margin. He had point 1.39ppg. The only D in the league with a ppg higher than the .70s was Makar's own 19yo D partner. It's not a top league but for him to be a whopping half a point per game ahead of his peers is impressive nonetheless. Even if you include forwards, he blew away all scoring competition under 19yrs of age on that league. His ability to dominate scoring when it's based purely on skill and not driven on brute size and strength or physical maturity is also impressive.

 

[rt]

Ryan Ellis is Makar's ceiling IMO, and Ellis was a much better player in a much better league with a much better development track (UMA is the worst team in hockey east) and proved himself in tournaments.

Why is he projected to go so high? Seems like novelty, to me.

Seems like everyone started putting him the top ten after strong international showings:

Makar a 5-foot-10, 179-pound right-shot defenseman, is No. 10 on NHL Central Scouting's midterm ranking in part because of his play for Canada West in the 2016 World Junior A Challenge...He was a B-rated skater on NHL Central Scouting's players to watch list in October and November, but he was team captain and had eight points (four goals, four assists) in four games, including a five-point game (two goals, three assists) in a 6-2 defeat of Switzerland, at the tournament, which was held in Bonnyville, Alberta from Dec. 11-17.

"A lot of times these guys will start out low and their play will dictate how high they rise up," said John Williams of NHL Central Scouting. "We really wanted to see how he did against elite competition. We knew he was a good player in the AJHL. We wanted to see him against the best in that tournament against the best players.

"He was a cut above. He was by far one of the best players there, for sure."

https://www.nhl.com/news/cale-makar-nhl-draft-profile/c-287984570

The same happened with OEL, IIRC.

 

[MIGs Dog]

Sometimes when I read smart people's mock drafts, I get the feeling that they are just dropping anything into the Coyotes pick. They don't know anything about the coyotes so they say "whatever, give the coyotes Makar since we can't fit him into any of the teams we know stuff about"

It's not hard to figure out we need a top line center who can put up 80 pts. Give me that guy.

 

[rt]

It's not hard to figure out we need a top line center who can put up 80 pts. Give me that guy.

It will be interesting to see where Dvorak tops out and what Strome can become as a pro. I'd be absolutely shocked if either ever put up anywhere near 80pts but if they can get to the mid sixties, I think we're okay.

 

[Kaibur]

Vilardi, Mittelstadt, Glass, Tippett or Necas with the 7th

 

[PhoPhan]

Concerning AJHL, Makar was top five in scoring. Led a D in scoring by a huge margin. He had point 1.39ppg. The only D in the league with a ppg higher than the .70s was Makar's own 19yo D partner. It's not a top league but for him to be a whopping half a point per game ahead of his peers is impressive nonetheless. Even if you include forwards, he blew away all scoring competition under 19yrs of age on that league. His ability to dominate scoring when it's based purely on skill and not driven on brute size and strength or physical maturity is also impressive.

Makar is relatively old for his draft class though, and while his numbers are stellar compared to the rest of his league, they look similar to the line Dante Fabbro posted last year in the superior BCHL (albeit on a fairly stacked team).

I think he's a different player than Ryan Ellis—much better skater at the same age, but nowhere near the shot power—but I have trouble seeing him as a legitimate top pairing guy. Tyson Barrie is the comparison I've been using. He can be a valuable offensive weapon for sure, but I haven't seen any evidence that he won't be a liability in his own end. Couple that with the size and iffy development path, and I can't justify taking him in the top 10. There are much safer bets to become that valuable.

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

Ryan Ellis is a battler too, incredible player.

I'd be thrilled with Ryan Ellis at 7 tbh

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

I just dont want Pettersson.

Tall, cerebral, underweight center with WIP skating the need to gain strength.

Sounds familiar...

It's very possible in five-six years he's the best of the draft, but I don't think we have the time to wait and see

 

[XX]

Concerning AJHL, Makar was top five in scoring. Led a D in scoring by a huge margin. He had point 1.39ppg. The only D in the league with a ppg higher than the .70s was Makar's own 19yo D partner. It's not a top league but for him to be a whopping half a point per game ahead of his peers is impressive nonetheless. Even if you include forwards, he blew away all scoring competition under 19yrs of age on that league. His ability to dominate scoring when it's based purely on skill and not driven on brute size and strength or physical maturity is also impressive.

Nobody raves about his defense, just that his speed helps him deal with tougher opponents. He's essentially a forward that lines up at a faceoff as a D. I don't find that nearly as impressive as others. The Karlsson comparisons from a few people really hyped up on him don't help. Nobody ever wants to talk about guys like Ryan Murphy, who were similar but didn't really pan out. Everyone chasing after the next Karlsson is getting mobile undersized D overdrafted. I absolutely don't see top pairing upside, so it doesn't seem like an appropriate use of a top 10 pick.

If the Coyotes pick him, I'll be cheering for him, but I won't fault people for being skeptical.

Ryan Ellis is a battler too, incredible player.

I'd be thrilled with Ryan Ellis at 7 tbh

The problem with this line of thinking is that people would be thrilled to draft someone guaranteed to be as good as Ryan Eliis a lot higher than they'd be than if a guy had a 30% chance of being that good. Ellis has been johnny on the spot in the playoffs but I don't think he's a transformative player for a roster.

If you have a 1D, you can generally get away with a hodge-podge of other D, so long as your forwards are strong enough. I say keep drafting forwards until the weight of their skill overwhelms awful coaching and other teams.

 

[IPreferPi]

Shift-by-shift tape of Casey Mittlestadt from February:

 

[rt]

Makar is relatively old for his draft class though, and while his numbers are stellar compared to the rest of his league, they look similar to the line Dante Fabbro posted last year in the superior BCHL (albeit on a fairly stacked team).

I think he's a different player than Ryan Ellis—much better skater at the same age, but nowhere near the shot power—but I have trouble seeing him as a legitimate top pairing guy. Tyson Barrie is the comparison I've been using. He can be a valuable offensive weapon for sure, but I haven't seen any evidence that he won't be a liability in his own end. Couple that with the size and iffy development path, and I can't justify taking him in the top 10. There are much safer bets to become that valuable.

I'm not advocating for the pick. There are red flags. If the Coyotes think he's the best skating, most outlet offensively gifted defenseman to come along in two or three years, they might look past all the waving red fabric. I probably wouldn't, but they might.

 

[rt]

Nobody raves about his defense, just that his speed helps him deal with tougher opponents. He's essentially a forward that lines up at a faceoff as a D. I don't find that nearly as impressive as others. The Karlsson comparisons from a few people really hyped up on him don't help. Nobody ever wants to talk about guys like Ryan Murphy, who were similar but didn't really pan out. Everyone chasing after the next Karlsson is getting mobile undersized D overdrafted. I absolutely don't see top pairing upside, so it doesn't seem like an appropriate use of a top 10 pick.

If the Coyotes pick him, I'll be cheering for him, but I won't fault people for being skeptical.



The problem with this line of thinking is that people would be thrilled to draft someone guaranteed to be as good as Ryan Eliis a lot higher than they'd be than if a guy had a 30% chance of being that good. Ellis has been johnny on the spot in the playoffs but I don't think he's a transformative player for a roster.

If you have a 1D, you can generally get away with a hodge-podge of other D, so long as your forwards are strong enough. I say keep drafting forwards until the weight of their skill overwhelms awful coaching and other teams.

Those warts don't sound much worse or more plentifulthan most guys in this range. Everyone can come up with great and bad comps for all of these kids.

 

[Mosby]

The lack of any one particular prospect standing out at 7 just makes me more interested in moving it for immediate help.

 

[BlazingBlueAnt]

I like Necas personally, liked his game in the WJC

Fast, skilled, and competitive. Three things I like to see most in a player.

 

[XX]

Those warts don't sound much worse or more plentiful than most guys in this range. Everyone can come up with great and bad comps for all of these kids.

Kid has been playing hero hockey in the AJHL and is going to keep doing it at a really weak college program. He's a prime candidate to end up like Barrie (clueless at defending) in my mind. There's been a lot of players in his mold in past drafts, he just has eye-popping production in a weak league. I don't see how you take him over Glass or Tippett. Necas could turn into a useful two way winger even if he doesn't produce. What is Makar if he doesn't produce? Ryan Murphy.

If the scouts watch him/tape and come away with "wow, he's different", then by all means draft him. Just try hard as hell to get him to the WHL.

 

[rt]

From what I've seen and read, Necas has excellent face-off prowess, is a great puck carrier, a great passer/plamker, and very solid defensively. That projects as center, to me. Apart from being tall.

Makar skates a LOT better than Barrie. I have no indication Makar will be great defensively I have equally little evidence that he's poor defensively. Where is this narrative coming from?

In terms of short D that aren't powerhouses offensively but are effective in their jobs, I've got Spurgeon and Russell right off the top of my head.

It's starting to seem that there is a strong aversion to players that aren't tall and/or are thin, more than anything else at this point.

For Makar, I'd prefer MedHat to UMass. That said, if we are worried he's too skinny then D1 has benefits over the Dub in that regard.

 

[PhoPhan]

The lack of any one particular prospect standing out at 7 just makes me more interested in moving it for immediate help.

Also makes the pick that much less valuable in terms of what it would return.

From what I've seen and read, Necas has excellent face-off prowess, is a great puck carrier, a great passer/plamker, and very solid defensively. That projects as center, to me. Apart from being tall.

Makar skates a LOT better than Barrie. I have no indication Makar will be great defensively I have equally little evidence that he's poor defensively. Where is this narrative coming from?

In terms of short D that aren't powerhouses offensively but are effective in their jobs, I've got Spurgeon and Russell right off the top of my head.

It's starting to seem that there is a strong aversion to players that aren't tall and/or are thin, more than anything else at this point.

For Makar, I'd prefer MedHat to UMass. That said, if we are worried he's too skinny then D1 has benefits over the Dub in that regard.

It's less that Makar is bad at defense and more that he doesn't really bother. In the AJHL and tournaments, he's always got a partner who sits back and lets him do his thing. It's not as damning as someone who tries and is terrible at it, but it's another question mark that makes his development path that much more critical.

 

[TheLegend]

Close enough to the thread limit..... continue here...

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2225813