2016 NHL Draft

[Grimes]

I think team scouts are very open about who they like. I had a Flames scout tell me point blank that he had Toews at #1 his draft year and I'm just a nobody.

Your ability to talk to scouts, and know who scouts are make me think you are more than just a nobody.

But either way it could also be a team a scout that is especially high on any of the defensemen in that list (especially Chychrun) that is just trying to make other scouts feel less sure.

I know when I go to the prospect board I leave feeling very high/low on whichever prospect I just read about and what the general opinion is about them. Then I will come to this forum and see that people I generally debate/discuss hockey needs/issues with regularly will view the same prospect in a different manner than the main board.

It's all about perspective, bias and influence. Once you are at the draft these will influence you to make the correct or incorrect decision. We see the same thing here in the HF rankings.

If I were to list Keller in the top 6 now until the draft, most likely other posters may begin to move him up on their lists as well. I know I am higher on Gauthier now than I was a month ago because the likes of some posters.

Either way, I'd put money down that Chychrun is drafted before McAvoy and that that scout is trying to devalue other defensemen in hopes to get who they want after th 4th pick.

 

[rt]

Maybe we go 100% in the first two rounds?

7th: Mikhail Sergachev
NYR: Cam Dineen
37th: Frédéric Allard
53rd: Dylan Coghlan

Add Wood and Capobianco and suddenly our D prospect pool is actually.....good?

 

[Mosby]

Tkachuk with another 4 points tonight, all assists.

He has 16 points in 7 playoff games. That ranks 3rd in the OHL. The two ahead of him are Watson (17 pts) and Dal Colle (18 pts), both with 7 GP as well.

 

[Grvmnd]

Maybe we go 100% in the first two rounds?

7th: Mikhail Sergachev
NYR: Cam Dineen
37th: Frédéric Allard
53rd: Dylan Coghlan

Add Wood and Capobianco and suddenly our D prospect pool is actually.....good?

With the 7th I'd prefer we take best forward available. I know we need D but I'm a lot more worried about taking it in the top 15 than I am a forward. Just a higher potential to get an underwhelming player. Since 2008 top 15's:


2008: Drew Doughty-2, Zach Bogosian-3, Luke Schenn-5, Tyler Myers-12, Colten Teubert-13, Erik Karlsson-15

2009: Victor Hedman-2, OEL-6, Jared Cowen-9, Ryan Ellis-11, Calvin de Haan-12, Dmitri Kulikov-14

2010: Erik Gudbranson-3, Dylan Mcilrath-10, Cam Fowler-12, Brandon Gormley-13, Derek Forbort-15

2011: Adam Larsson-4, Dougie Hamilton-9, Jonas Brodin-10, Duncan Siemens-11, Ryan Murphy-12, Jamie Oleksiak-14

2012: Ryan Murray-2, Griffin Reinhart-4, Morgan Reilly-5, Hampus Lindholm-6, Mathew Dumba-7, Derrick Pouliot-8, Jacob Trouba-9, Slater Koekkoek-10, Codi Ceci-15

2013: Seth Jones-4, Darnell Nurse-7, Rasmus Ristolainen-8, Samuel Morin-11, Josh Morrisey-13, Ryan Pulock-15

2014: Aaron Ekblad-1, Haydn Fleury-7, Julius Honka-14

 

[lanky]

^ Agreed. BFA. We need an NHL roster D. We should add some D prospects too but those can come in later rounds.

 

[XX]

With the 7th I'd prefer we take best forward available. I know we need D but I'm a lot more worried about taking it in the top 15 than I am a forward. Just a higher potential to get an underwhelming player. Since 2008 top 15's:

Now list all the underwhelming forwards.

I'd trade 7 for about a dozen of those guys you listed. That's a pretty good hit rate. Teams reach or draft projects and it doesn't work out. The consensus top D are usually good. Scouts also get better at projecting as the game evolves on the backend. To go top 10 as a D now, you need above average skating. If Chychrun or Sergachev is there, I don't see how you pass. You can make an easy case they are BPA. I'm less enthused about Juolevi.

 

[Grvmnd]

Now list all the underwhelming forwards.

I'd trade 7 for about a dozen of those guys you listed. That's a pretty good hit rate. Teams reach or draft projects and it doesn't work out. The consensus top D are usually good. Scouts also get better at projecting as the game evolves on the backend. To go top 10 as a D now, you need above average skating. If Chychrun or Sergachev is there, I don't see how you pass. You can make an easy case they are BPA. I'm less enthused about Juolevi.

I listed that much d with the the assumption were not getting the first guy. Were looking at the two or three guy. The fact there's not even a consensus #1 dman in this draft makes me scared. That's all

 

[XX]

I listed that much d with the the assumption were not getting the first guy. Were looking at the two or three guy. The fact there's not even a consensus #1 dman in this draft makes me scared. That's all

Chychrun is the consensus #1. Everyone else is just bluffing or using guys like McKenzie as a sounding board.

 

[rt]

So let's start speculating:

Final 2016 Draft Lottery priority order
1st - Toronto - 69 points
2nd - Edmonton - 70 points
3rd - Vancouver - 75 points
4th - Columbus - 76 points
5th - Calgary - 77 points
6th - Winnipeg - 78 points (32 R/OT wins)
7th - Arizona - 78 points (34 R/OT wins)
8th - Buffalo - 81 points
9th - Montreal - 82 points (33 R/OT wins)
10th - Colorado - 82 points (35 R/OT wins)
11th - New Jersey - 82 points (36 R/OT wins)
12th - Ottawa - 85 points
13th - Carolina - 86 points
14th - Boston- 93 points

1. TOR - Matthews
2. EDM - Laine
3. VAN - Puljujarvi
4. CBJ - Dubois <~ tough call but RyJo for Seth Jones makes me think big C appeals
5. CGY - Chychrun <~ consensus top D. They're stacked with young F.
6. WPG - So tough <~ stacked with young F and RHD. Need LD. But the Tkachuk name. Don't like Russians. Either Tkachuk or Juolevei, I think.

 

[Grimes]

Does Dubois play center too?

If he were to somehow fall...

Columbis wins lottery
TOR -Laine
EDM - Pulju
VAN - Chychrun
CGY - Sergy
WPG - Tka
AZ - Dubois....i can dream right?!

 

[hbk]

Chychrun is the consensus #1. Everyone else is just bluffing or using guys like McKenzie as a sounding board.

I'm not sold on that yet. U18s might confirm this but right now I would not be surprised if Finn goes first.

 

[hbk]

Vancouver most likely to drop to 3rd tier and are on record that they want a D.

 

[Mosby]

If Toronto wins the lotto and maintains the 1st slot...

If they're confident that Tkachuk is there at 7, do they do Dvorak+7th overall for 1st overall? Coyotes get Matthews and the Leafs/Hunter get the Tkachuk/Dvorak/Marner line from London.

 

[PhoPhan]

I'm not sold on that yet. U18s might confirm this but right now I would not be surprised if Finn goes first.

I'm getting the sense that after Laine, this draft is a little more wide open than typical years. Last year, there was a clear top two, three guys who could go in any order after that, and then the next six picks were fairly predictable within that range. That is, the first reach didn't happen until #12, and everyone before that went within a couple slots of where the consensus projected them. I'm having trouble even seeing a consensus yet.

 

[Matias Maccete]

If Toronto wins the lotto and maintains the 1st slot...

If they're confident that Tkachuk is there at 7, do they do Dvorak+7th overall for 1st overall? Coyotes get Matthews and the Leafs/Hunter get the Tkachuk/Dvorak/Marner line from London.

I highly doubt that's enough. I'd throw our nyr first in there too and that still may be a pass from them.

 

[Jakey53]

I highly doubt that's enough. I'd throw our nyr first in there too and that still may be a pass from them.

I don't think there is much difference between Tkachuk and Matthews other than one plays center. You add Dvorak, who is on par or slightly below Tkachuk and that is a very good offer. There is no way I add our nyr 1st. Mind you, I have only seen Tkachuk and AM play about five games so I really don't have much to base my opinion on.

 

[rt]

Does Dubois play center too?

If he were to somehow fall...

Columbis wins lottery
TOR -Laine
EDM - Pulju
VAN - Chychrun
CGY - Sergy
WPG - Tka
AZ - Dubois....i can dream right?!

IIRC and I can't fact check on mobile, I believe he took the 3rd or 4th most FOs on his team. Meaning that he split time as 1st line LW and sometimes C on other lines in other situations. Unlike Mitch Marner who was assigned the position of center by Leafs nation d spite playing zero shifts at the position, PLD is actually a center and is only playig LW regularly due to team composition.

 

[rt]

If Toronto wins the lotto and maintains the 1st slot...

If they're confident that Tkachuk is there at 7, do they do Dvorak+7th overall for 1st overall? Coyotes get Matthews and the Leafs/Hunter get the Tkachuk/Dvorak/Marner line from London.

No, I don't think so.

 

[avco]

I highly doubt that's enough. I'd throw our nyr first in there too and that still may be a pass from them.

No way, based on talent, I would trade Tkachuk, Dvorak and NYR first for Matthews. If Matthews wasn't a home town lad I don't think anyone would ever contemplate such a deal. If ownership is smart, producing a winner is what is most important not some advertising gimmick. Finally if we get Tkachuk, it may look good having a Tkachuk, Dvorak, Perini Line.

 

[rt]

Last July I predicted we'd take Juolevi 6th overall. Which was a pretty good call given most thought we'd pick top three and at that time Juolevi was generally ranked in the teens. 13th in McKenzies preliminary poll.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1934327&highlight=juolevi

^ that's also a forum fourty first mention.

 

[rt]

There are two way off the board picks I can see at 7. The first is McLeod. Size, speed, center, right-handed shot, best defensive forward in the draft. A Tippett dream. Hockey family. Best friends with the Stromes. Connected and vouched for. I don't want it. I can see it. Maybe they think Juolevi is too thin and too safe. Sergachev too Russian. Which leads me to the second possible surprise pick; Charlie McAvoy. Followed by some insanely simple statement like, "we thought it was important to bolster our blueline depth and we liked this player the best out of what was available. We didn't want to risk missing out by trading down." All of us are gobsmacked but can't argue with the logic too, too much.

 

[Matias Maccete]

No way, based on talent, I would trade Tkachuk, Dvorak and NYR first for Matthews. If Matthews wasn't a home town lad I don't think anyone would ever contemplate such a deal. If ownership is smart, producing a winner is what is most important not some advertising gimmick. Finally if we get Tkachuk, it may look good having a Tkachuk, Dvorak, Perini Line.

Disagree, he's a legit number one pick and is way more than just an advertising gimmick. I don't think trading the 7th overall, a late first, and dvo(who is looking good but as I've said before I'm not sure on his ceiling) is too much. The hometown thing is nice and all, but he's a great talent, and that's the main reason for trading up to get him.

I don't think there is much difference between Tkachuk and Matthews other than one plays center. You add Dvorak, who is on par or slightly below Tkachuk and that is a very good offer. There is no way I add our nyr 1st. Mind you, I have only seen Tkachuk and AM play about five games so I really don't have much to base my opinion on.

I completely disagree, tkachuk is a good player, and has a high floor, but matthews is on another level.

 

[Jakey53]

Disagree, he's a legit number one pick and is way more than just an advertising gimmick. I don't think trading the 7th overall, a late first, and dvo(who is looking good but as I've said before I'm not sure on his ceiling) is too much. The hometown thing is nice and all, but he's a great talent, and that's the main reason for trading up to get him.


I completely disagree, tkachuk is a good player, and has a high floor, but matthews is on another level.

I agree that AM is better, but I'm not sure how much, and you add in Dvorak, who had more points in junior than both Strome and Tkachuk, AND a 1st. I believe is over kill, especially with a rebuilding team. It's time to collect assets not give them away. It might be smart to ask hbk on his thoughts about such trade as he watches junior much more than most. I would love to have AM here, it's a match made in heaven.

 

[hbk]

I really like McLeod but still view him as a good second line C with Reinprecht like speed. If you think he's a first line forward you run up and take him.

The problem this year is the D aren't sexy. Juolevi plays in a great system and had a magnificent world juniors but I feel like he's protected given how great London is

Sergachev has a potentially problematic passport but ability to play right side is appealing. Sneaky shot.

Chychrun is a 3/4 D who already physically mature. If you think his game will grow beyond that 3/4D label then he's a no brainer I suppose. To me he's not a home run pick. He's a solid single but that being said do you role dice on a potential 1st line RW in Nylander or are you content you've added a solid piece to blue line for the next decade.

 

[rt]

Chychrun must be inconsistent. He's more impressive than Hanifin from what I've seen. Maybe I've only seen the good and not the bad.