2016 NHL Draft - Part 3 - June 24th

[ck26]

Really liking Tyler Parsons. What are the odds he is available in the 3rd round?

Too high to draft a goaltender, any goaltender, especially given the poor performance of Memorial Cup goalies in the past. Excelling behind a stacked junior team doesn't appear to correlate with future professional success:

Year, winning goalie, second place, third place, fourth place
2000: Sebastien Caron, Brian Finley, Pascal Leclaire, Dan Blackburn
2001: Shane Bendera, Maxime Daigneault, Chad Davidson, Seamus Kotyk
2002: BJ Boxma, Daniel Manzato, TJ Aceti, Andrew Penner
2003: Scott Dickie, Eric Lafrance, Kelly Guard, Jean-Michel Fillatrault
2004: Kelly Guard, David Tremblay, Kevin Nastiuk, Adam Dennis
2005: Adam Dennis, Cedrick Desjardins, Danny Battochio, Kristofer Westblom
2006: Cedrick Desjardins, Josh Tordjman, Dustin Slade, David Shantz
2007: Tyson Sexsmith, Matt Keetley, Michal Neuwirth + Jeremy Smith, Jonathan Bernier
2008: Dustin Tokarski, Josh Unice, Mike Murphy, Ryan Mior
2009: Andrew Engelage, Mark Guggenberger, Marco Cousineau, Maxim Gougeon
2010: Philipp Grubauer, Jacob de Serres, Martin Jones, Shane Owen
2011: Jacob de Serres, JP Anderson, Nathan Leeuwen, Jordan Binnington
2012: Gabriel Girard, Michael Houser, Mathieu Corbeil, Laurent Brossoit
2013: Zachary Fucale?, Mac Carruth, Jake Patterson, Andrey Macaron
2014: Tristin Jarry?, Justin Nichols, Antoine Bibeau, Anthony Stolarz
2015: Ken Appleby, Jackson Whistle, Zachary Fucale?, Philippe Desrosiers

In 16 seasons, we've got one real excellent goaltender (Bernier), a couple guys who made the pros (Jones, Caron, Leclare, Tokarski) and two guys (Fucale and Jarry) who are still TBD. That's a really poor hit rate. Does this London team belong in the same conversation as the stacked 2005 London or 2003 Kitchener team? Because both their goalies did nothing in the NHL.

 

[ck26]

Elliotte Friedman's article today is nauseating clickbait of the highest order. Like he just noticed Matthew Tkachuk is good, so now he's playing NHL draft mad libs ... "4OA is a hot commodity, trade down, trade up, maybe Tkachuk goes in the top 3, everyone wants EDM pick so they can get Tkachuk."

Everyone knows EDM don't need yet another winger, so Oilers are in the rather unenviable position of NEEDING to trade down or else get "stuck" taking Chychrun 4OA. Maybe a team is willing to cough up a good young NHL defenseman for that pick, but few teams are in a position to give up good young NHL defensemen. The Oilers were so desperate for a good young NHL defenseman last year (and the market was SO barren) at the draft that they gave up Matthew Barzal + 33OA to get Griffin freaking Reinhart. I'll bet $1 right now that EDM keeps the pick and uses it on a defenseman. One of Dubois or Brown or Tkachuk will get to us at 7, no need to trade up.

 

[WrinkledPossum]

I think drafting goalies is generally quite random. I think the 3rd round is when you should start to look at drafting one. When you look at a lot of starting goalies most are drafted in the later rounds. 1st/2nd there is just too much risk when drafting a skater is so much safer. And just looking at the Coyotes, no one would've thought Domingue would turn out to be the better goalie than Visentin who was drafted higher(1st rd) and started over Domingue at the WJC.

Oh and I think out of those goalies listed, Jones is the excellent one. Not Bernier, I'd even put Neuvirth ahead of him too.

 

[rt]

I just read some interesting stuff about goalie drafting on the main board. It looks like the only time you should bother with picking a goalie is picks 45-90. I'd be fine blowing the Bleackley pick on that London kid.

 

[ck26]

I just read some interesting stuff about goalie drafting on the main board. It looks like the only time you should bother with picking a goalie is picks 45-90. I'd be fine blowing the Bleackley pick on that London kid.

Sarcasm? No? Where? Link?

 

[rt]

Sarcasm? No? Where? Link?

https://bluebulletreport.com/2015/06/04/rethinking-how-to-draft-goalies/comment-page-1/

Basically, there are only a couple of good goalies each draft. Don't waste your time on them too early but by mid draft, if there were any to be had, they're usually gone and you're definitely burning a pick on nothing.

So really, in a draft like this where no goalies will go in the first, try to grab the first or second goalie picked late in the 2nd or early in the 3rd. Otherwise, just forget about it.

 

[Mosby]

Thought I'd look into this a little further. So here are the top 20 goalies from this season, ranked by save percentage. I used a minimum 40 GP.

A couple observations:

- If you omit the 9th rounder (doesn't exist anymore) and the 2 UFAs, the average selection is 69th overall, so the top half of the third round.

- You get 7 years of a player once he's drafted. In this case, anyone from 2009 up until today. The chart shows just 4 goalies who meet that criteria. One of those was a UFA. Reinforces that drafting a goalie is a long-term investment.

- There are just 4 first rounders. Alternatively, twice as many goalies, 8 goalies (40%), were drafted after the 3rd round or not drafted all together.

 

[Mosby]

If we're to draft a goalie, I wouldn't mind grabbing Colton Point. He's going the NCAA route next season. We like big goalies, and this guy is already 6'4. Imagine if he grows another inch or two.

 

[lanky]

When I look at that list I think about how easy it seems to acquire a good NHL goalie. We already had Greiss and Dubnyk and both played great. Reimer is UFA this summer. Andersen might be available in trade because the Ducks have Gibson. Why worry about where to draft them when established NHL talent is readily available.

 

[WrinkledPossum]

When I look at that list I think about how easy it seems to acquire a good NHL goalie. We already had Greiss and Dubnyk and both played great. Reimer is UFA this summer. Andersen might be available in trade because the Ducks have Gibson. Why worry about where to draft them when established NHL talent is readily available.

Need to have guys play in the minors. And higher end goalies don't become FAs. The price to trade for someone like Andersen or Jones or Talbot is really high. Either spend a third drafting or trade a 1st++ for a guy who may or may not actually be worth it.

 

[lanky]

Higher end goalies not being available by UFA or trade is probably THE ONLY reason to roll dice on goalies at the draft. If you need a minor league goalie it's pretty simple to find one.

Yes Talbot and Jones were expensive in trade. We don't know the market for Andersen. We do know that Dubnyk and Reimer were traded very cheaply.

 

[rt]

Just don't draft them before pick 45 and don't sign them to big contracts.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

Elliotte Friedman's article today is nauseating clickbait of the highest order. Like he just noticed Matthew Tkachuk is good, so now he's playing NHL draft mad libs ... "4OA is a hot commodity, trade down, trade up, maybe Tkachuk goes in the top 3, everyone wants EDM pick so they can get Tkachuk."

Everyone knows EDM don't need yet another winger, so Oilers are in the rather unenviable position of NEEDING to trade down or else get "stuck" taking Chychrun 4OA. Maybe a team is willing to cough up a good young NHL defenseman for that pick, but few teams are in a position to give up good young NHL defensemen. The Oilers were so desperate for a good young NHL defenseman last year (and the market was SO barren) at the draft that they gave up Matthew Barzal + 33OA to get Griffin freaking Reinhart. I'll bet $1 right now that EDM keeps the pick and uses it on a defenseman. One of Dubois or Brown or Tkachuk will get to us at 7, no need to trade up.

It's more likely that Edmonton trades down than takes Chychrun at 4OA. The Coyotes need to move up 2-3 spots to get a shot at Tkachuk.

 

[OriginalJetsCoyotes]

When I look at that list I think about how easy it seems to acquire a good NHL goalie. We already had Greiss and Dubnyk and both played great. Reimer is UFA this summer. Andersen might be available in trade because the Ducks have Gibson. Why worry about where to draft them when established NHL talent is readily available.

Higher end goalies not being available by UFA or trade is probably THE ONLY reason to roll dice on goalies at the draft. If you need a minor league goalie it's pretty simple to find one.

Yes Talbot and Jones were expensive in trade. We don't know the market for Andersen. We do know that Dubnyk and Reimer were traded very cheaply.

We won't be getting any goalies of that calibre. No way a goalie looking to become a starter comes to Arizona to play behind Smith. We're paying Smith way too much to be a backup. Probably Maloney's biggest mistake.

The best we can hope for now is to groom Domingue into a starter with the 3 years remaining on Smith's contract. After that, we'll need a backup for Domingue if he is indeed our guy, drafting now would be wise.

 

[Mosby]

Don't forget about Langhamer. I think we have something there. Even Adin Hill, who fits perfectly with the above studies, being a 76th overall pick. Let's see how he looks next year, whether that's in returning to the WHL as an overager or moving on to Rapid City.

Beyond that, we don't have much. I kind of see Treutle going back to Germany. Also still think that Kallgren was a bit of an odd pick last year as he hasn't played too many games. He's a backup in Sweden I believe.

 

[AZviaNJ]

London calling:
7. Joulevi
20. Jones
37. Pu
53. Mete
67. Parsons

 

[Mosby]

I like that. Really like Jones' game. We need guys with more snarl.

If that were to happen, we'd have no choice but to name the AHL squad the Tucson Knights.

 

[PhoPhan]

Big Jones fan. I've got him ranked higher than any other Knight this year. I'd take him at 7.

 

[AZviaNJ]

Big Jones fan. I've got him ranked higher than any other Knight this year. I'd take him at 7.

what's your take on Pu and Mete?

 

[Matias Maccete]

The more I see if juolevi the less I want him. Imo super low ceiling.

 

[lanky]

Big Jones fan. I've got him ranked higher than any other Knight this year. I'd take him at 7.

Wow, higher than Tkachuck? That's bold!

 

[Alberta Yote]

Wow, higher than Tkachuck? That's bold!

Crazy bold most would say

 

[SniperHF]

It's more likely that Edmonton trades down than takes Chychrun at 4OA. The Coyotes need to move up 2-3 spots to get a shot at Tkachuk.

Who are they going to trade down with though and still grab one of the clear upper end defensemen of the draft? I don't think they have a clear trading partner within the top 15 that would still leave them with a viable pick on D.

I think they either trade out of the first round entirely for a Barrie type piece or just take the pick.

 

[cobra427]

Who are they going to trade down with though and still grab one of the clear upper end defensemen of the draft? I don't think they have a clear trading partner within the top 15 that would still leave them with a viable pick on D.

I think they either trade out of the first round entirely for a Barrie type piece or just take the pick.

I agree, they will take a D or trade for a D.

 

[Eco]

Now that I have XM radio, I feel more informed about the up and coming players available in this draft, so I will be excited to watch it.