2016 NHL Draft - Part 3 - June 24th

[OriginalJetsCoyotes]

Laugh all you want, but a $7.5 million anchor is enough to stall any chance for Detroit to make a deep run in the playoffs. I'd hold them up for ransom to get that off their books. They need that money off the books way more than we need the piddling return offered up on this thread.

A rebuild has to happen in Detroit sooner or later, delaying it only makes it worse. I don't think Ken Holland is that stupid. Then again, keeping the cap hit and rebuilding would be the smart thing to do. He has to ask himself a question, is making the playoffs enough? They don't have the pool right now to rely on prospects like we are and the expansion draft will only make things worse if he goes out and signs enough players to make it to the cap and compete.

 

[AZviaNJ]

There are 2-3 teams in a position to take on cap space, Coyotes one of those teams. There are 10-12 teams in serious need of dumping salary (especially if a the cap goes down).

Advantage and leverage Coyotes. 16+4th Rder+PD for 20 is a fair deal. Smith would be a nice addition, too, even if it cost 37.

 

[Palmer2Fitz]

What about a deal based around Hanzal for #15 +?

Brown at 7
Fabbro at 15
And hope McAvoy slips to 20

I could live with that. What do you guys think?

 

[SniperHF]

We can trade Hanzal for a pick (a worse one but probably not too much) at the deadline. If he goes in the offseason it's gotta be for a player.

 

[tucknroll]

Laugh all you want, but a $7.5 million anchor is enough to stall any chance for Detroit to make a deep run in the playoffs. I'd hold them up for ransom to get that off their books. They need that money off the books way more than we need the piddling return offered up on this thread.

The thing is,

1. Detroit will never give up their most valuable player, if you were in their scenario would you give up Domi to get rid of a contract? or would you laugh at the team that asked and just trade someone else for a bit of cap relief?

2. There is no way Arizona is the only team talking to Detroit (so they aren't in a position to "ransom" them), Detroit will just look to give practically free assets to another team because they weren't outrageous

3. Detroit pretty much knows they aren't a deep playoff team, its all about keeping their record going at this point, and if they can make it deep thats a bonus.

4. They don't "NEED" his contract off the books, they would just really like it to be. Likely so they can give an offer to Stamkos, I believe they have 11 million is cap space right now (could be wrong)

 

[Llewzaher]

And I think they'd laugh at you for it.

Even doing 37th to Detroit for the Datsyuk contract and 16th is just too unreasonable.

Keeping them in the first round keeps them talking.

A Detroit friend of mine says he'd be willing to give up Pulkkinen or Jurco.

To Arizona
Datsyuk's 7.5 cap hit
16th overall
Jurco/Pulkkinen
4th round pick

To Detroit
20th overall
5th round pick
AHL ceiling prospect. (Don't know who I'd add or if I'd add anything)

I'm not used to making trade proposals, so this is probably bad, but I do think 37th for 16th is completely unreasonable to ask of Detroit in such a deep first round draft. They'd probably rather just tank the cap hit.

Hmm

How about

Detroit
37th , Bleakley pick (53?)

Arizona
Datsyuk
16th

I hear what you are saying though about keeping them in the first round. But after seeing the Chicago trade , I think cap space is becoming alot more valuable.

Besides if there is one team who has no issues drafting outside of the first round it is Detroit.

That being said ,I just dont think we have enough experience in our management team to think of something like this.

 

[Kaibur]

I'd do it. You?

If we've got a deal lined up to use the pick for a top 4 vet D, I'd do it.

But personally, I hope they get Pulkkinen as the return.

 

[Mosby]

NHL.com has some stuff today comparing Juolevi vs. Chychrun. Don't really have Sergachev in the mix. One scouts likens Juolevi to OEL.

I'm still undecided I think. Flip a coin. Yesterday it was Sergachev and today it's Juolevi.

 

[Jakey53]

NHL.com has some stuff today comparing Juolevi vs. Chychrun. Don't really have Sergachev in the mix. One scouts likens Juolevi to OEL.

I'm still undecided I think. Flip a coin. Yesterday it was Sergachev and today it's Juolevi.

That year I really liked Schenn and Kane, and was disappointed when they were taken and we took OEL.

 

[Mosby]

I'd do it. You?

Ehh. I'd like this to hurt for Detroit. We'd be doing them a huge favor. It's too bad they don't have a good, young defenseman for us to take. Brendan Smith doesn't do it for me. Up front, Pulkkinen is interesting. Tomas Jurco is approaching bust territory. We could always use more picks. Could add Pulkkinen and then trade one of our current winger prospects, or flip Pulkkinen, to fix the roster elsewhere.

Maybe...

To Arizona
- Pavel Datsyuk
- Teemu Pulkkinen
- 2017 2nd
- 2016 4th

To Detroit
- Joe Vitale
- Matia Marcantuoni
- 2016 7th

 

[BUX7PHX]

NHL.com has some stuff today comparing Juolevi vs. Chychrun. Don't really have Sergachev in the mix. One scouts likens Juolevi to OEL.

I'm still undecided I think. Flip a coin. Yesterday it was Sergachev and today it's Juolevi.

http://www.nhl.com/news/top-10-defensemen-eligible-for-2016-draft/c-280964406?tid=277764372

Here is another one that showed up on NHL.com for the top 10 defensemen. Says exactly what you would expect: the top 4-5 all project to be top 4 D and if you asked four separate teams, each one would grade each differently.

Another article is on Lucas Johansen, Ryan's brother, who plays D for Kelowna. I really had no idea how many D come out of Kelowna. I am not saying that I reach for him at #20, but if the players that we have ranked highly at #20 are all gone, maybe we execute some sort of trade back to the #24-#30 range and swoop him up at the end of the first round. I could see teams going on a run of defensemen at the start of the 2nd round, and he would be a player in that #31-36 range.

 

[Jakey53]

Hmm

How about

Detroit
37th , Bleakley pick (53?)

Arizona
Datsyuk
16th

I hear what you are saying though about keeping them in the first round. But after seeing the Chicago trade , I think cap space is becoming alot more valuable.

Besides if there is one team who has no issues drafting outside of the first round it is Detroit.

That being said ,I just dont think we have enough experience in our management team to think of something like this.

Well, you thought of it, and they have more experience than you.

 

[strizzy16]

NHL.com has some stuff today comparing Juolevi vs. Chychrun. Don't really have Sergachev in the mix. One scouts likens Juolevi to OEL.

I'm still undecided I think. Flip a coin. Yesterday it was Sergachev and today it's Juolevi.

I like Juolevi the most and have for a while, but it's not for pure ability, it's more for the intangibles of him playing on the same team as OEL. Saw an interview a few weeks back where he basically said that OEL was his idol and he models his overall game after OEL. I think this means that he'd be really happy to come to Arizona, and at the same time, he'd raise his game being in the presence of one of his heroes, and would learn a lot right off the bat especially if OEL decides to closely mentor him. Which i would assume he would, because OEL seems to be a pretty good guy. Also the Sweden-Finland dynamic on the blueline is kind of interesting. Finally, Juolevi is going to be playing on stacked Finnish national teams for years to come, they simply don't have the back-end depth that other national teams such as Canada have where Subban or Letang get left off the team. Juolevi can crack that lineup in the next few years and continue to be surrounded by great players on that stage, whereas Chychrun especially wouldnt get that type of experience for a while.

 

[Heldig]

Juolevi is the safe pick. He will be a dependable, smart top 4 guy. Upside is limited.

Chychrun is the home run but the risk of striking out. Admittedly, I have not seen Chychrun play much. Others on this board have very strong opinions of him. I defer. Probably too risky at 7.

 

[Matias Maccete]

It's very possible the few times I saw juolevi he was having off games or something, but I watched just about every Finland wjc game and the knights final playoff game and he was fairly invisible every time. I forgot he was playing and had to keep looking for him, he did nothing noticable. That does mean he made very few mistakes, but I worry about taking a safe low ceiling player at 7. It's also possible that the insane amounts of skill displayed by laine and pulju, then by tkachuk dvo and marner, made him seem more pedestrian by comparison. I'll say again that after the last few years I trust our scouts with whoever they pick, but I personally don't see juolevi being that great of an NHL player.

 

[Mosby]

Can this organization afford to potentially strike out on its top pick? Other teams can beat us in other areas but the draft is a more level playing field. That's the benefit of a safe pick like Juolevi.

 

[tucknroll]

Juolevi is the safe pick. He will be a dependable, smart top 4 guy. Upside is limited.

Chychrun is the home run but the risk of striking out. Admittedly, I have not seen Chychrun play much. Others on this board have very strong opinions of him. I defer. Probably too risky at 7.

Chychrun isn't as much of a risk as he's made out to be, even the people who don't like him say he looks like a #4. So he's either a home run pick or he's still a top 4..
Even if his offence doesn't develop (which isn't a problem area of his, just trying to do too much is), he will still be an amazing shut down defenseman (better than Joulevi) with an awesome shot.
Joulevi is a smart player, but he's not an extremely offensive minded D, neither is Chychrun (neither will QB a team) but if both their offensive ability's struggle to make it at the next level, Joulevi will have a harder time than Chychrun will because of his tool box of natural abilities

Both will very likely be NHL players, but at #7 why draft a top 4 guy when there is potential for a top-pairing guy who might bust into top 4?

In my opinion top 3 defenseman rankings out of the OHL should end up just like the OHL Prospects Blog (I'd even keep Nylander at 3rd and Brown at 6th as well)

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/06/final-mediascout-top-10-for-2016.html

(incase anyone hasn't seen it)

 

[Matias Maccete]

Can this organization afford to potentially strike out on its top pick? Other teams can beat us in other areas but the draft is a more level playing field. That's the benefit of a safe pick like Juolevi.

This is an excellent point, but I still think in the top ten you look for higher potential than juolevi. With a mid to late first round pick if there's a safe pick there I totally get it, but to me if you're looking at a top ten pick you should try for an impact player. If we do go safe because we already have a number 1 D and a stocked pipeline of forwards I can see the merit though.

 

[XX]

None of the consensus top 10 seem like boom or bust picks. They all carry similar bust risk. At 7, I don't see a 'wrong' choice the Coyotes could feasibly make.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Can this organization afford to potentially strike out on its top pick? Other teams can beat us in other areas but the draft is a more level playing field. That's the benefit of a safe pick like Juolevi.

My personal idea of a safe pick is someone whose value matches accordingly with the pick number, and not necessarily meaning that he is safe b/c his floor is higher, coupled with a lower ceiling.

It's all relative to the others in the draft class anyways. If all of the top 6 D have a floor of "good to average" 3/4 D, but Juolevi has the lowest ceiling, you are leaving tremendous value on the draft floor by taking that player as the first or second D off the board, as opposed to seeing how things play out. If Juolevi becomes the first D off the board at #10, then he becomes a more definable "safe" pick.

I would love getting a pick between #9 and #16 b/c I don't see a huge gamble in getting the worst of the D group at #16, as they all appear to be not too far apart. I would hate to see the gamble of picking a player at #7 and realizing that the players just behind him are potentially going to be just as good. Rather walk away taking the "6th favorite" D on draft board in a trade back and having that player develop to the 6th best in 5 years, as opposed to taking the "best" D at #7 and having that player develop into the 3rd best in the long run.

 

[BUX7PHX]

None of the consensus top 10 seem like boom or bust picks. They all carry similar bust risk. At 7, I don't see a 'wrong' choice the Coyotes could feasibly make.

I don't necessarily think that there is a "wrong" choice either, but there is a positive and negative EV associated with having a tight grouping of players at #7 and selecting one who winds up being closer to the lower end of the prospect group.

I see very little overall difference between #7 and #20 in this draft, which means that it is more likely to return less value at #7 than get excellent value.

 

[RemoAZ]

None of the consensus top 10 seem like boom or bust picks. They all carry similar bust risk. At 7, I don't see a 'wrong' choice the Coyotes could feasibly make.

Other than trading the pick for a crap vet Tippett likes.

 

[Mosby]

Jeff Marek's mock draft

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/jeff-mareks-2016-nhl-mock-draft/

We come away with a couple of Londoners in Juolevi and Jones.

 

[Mosby]

Fun, full mock here:

http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2016/

7 - Olli Juolevi
20 - Charlie McAvoy
37 - Will Bitten
53 - Sam Steel
68 - Vojtech Budik
158 - Garrett Pilon
188 - Nolan Volcan

 

[Grimes]

I'm starting to really hope we go hard for the 3rd OA. From Marek's article it really sounds like they want/need a center. One of Brown/Keller/Jost will be there at 7. I'd be thrilled to come out of this with a sure bet NHL RW with massive upside and then slide up to 16 via DET to grab a McAvoy/Fabbro/Bean. That would be a hell of a draft and really wrap up a rebuild.

I took a look at Marek's 15 mock. Interesting notes, had Hanafin going 4, Barzal at 9 and Merkely at 15.
"Merkley has one of the rarest skillsets in the draft – a playmaking winger. The Flames love the way Merkley moves on the ice and his pass-first mentality fits in with the young finishers this team has."