2016 NHL Draft - Part 2 - June 24th
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BUX7PHX
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- Jul 7, 2011
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Big reason why moving back may be the thing. I don't think there will be a consensus player at the top of the board for #7, so it is all about managing value. As an example, I am not terribly fond of Sergachev at #7. May or may not be fair to the player, as he could be an excellent value at #7. But at #11, I start to like him a lot more there.
We'll have to see which teams are willing to move around, but I really start to like Fabbro, McAvoy, Gauthier, and a few others right around #13. Would #7 (plus something - 2017 2nd round pick??) be able to get #13 and #21 from Carolina?
Would love.to wind up a draft in this direction:
#13 - BPA D, especially if one of the top 3 falls into this range somehow (Fabbro or Chychrun)
#20 - BPA F (Kunin)
#21 - BPA (Bellows? McAvoy? Gauthier?)
#37 - BPA (Johansen? Bastian? Lindgren?)
#53 - BPA D (Josh Anderson)
zerekstar
Registered User
i was thinking a future line of Perlini/Brown/Fischer would be quite the force to put out on the ice. With Domi/Strome/Duclair in front of that and Martinook/Dvorak/Reider behind them, followed by Samuelsson/Hanzal/Merkley. If all these prospects pan out, and we draft Logan Brown, there is a line up with a lot of skill and size.
Brock's top ten OHL list is a must read. At pick seven only two of these guys will be taken already giving us a lot to choose from.
http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/05/my-final-top-50-ohl-players-for-2016_20.html?m=1
http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/05/my-final-top-50-ohl-players-for-2016_20.html?m=1
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
Yes. That list pretty much made it easy for me to accept a Brown selection, if it's the route we go.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
A little exercise to remind myself how much I have no idea what I'm doing.
A game of My Pick - Yo(tes) Pick for the last decade. Who I wanted versus who we got:
2006 - My Pick: Bryan Little - Yo Pick: Peter Mueller
2007 - My Pick: Kyle Turris - Yo Pick: Kyle Turris
2008 - My Pick: Mikkel Boedker - Yo Pick: Mikkel Boedker
2009 - My Pick: Magnus Paajarvi - Yo Pick: OEL
2010 - My Pick: Brandon Gormley - Yo Pick: Brandon Gormley
2010 - My Pick: Emerson Etem - Yo Pick: Mark Visentin
2011 - My Pick: Boone Jenner - Yo Pick: Connor Murphy
2012 - My Pick: Samuelsson - Yo Pick: Samuelsson
2013 - My Pick: Max Domi - Yo Pick: Max Domi
2014 - My Pick: Robby Fabbri - Yo Pick: Brendan Perlini
2015 - My Pick: Dylan Strome - Yo Pick: Dylan Strome
2015 - My Pick: Nick Merkley - Yo Pick: Nick Merkley
A game of My Pick - Yo(tes) Pick for the last decade. Who I wanted versus who we got:
2006 - My Pick: Bryan Little - Yo Pick: Peter Mueller
2007 - My Pick: Kyle Turris - Yo Pick: Kyle Turris
2008 - My Pick: Mikkel Boedker - Yo Pick: Mikkel Boedker
2009 - My Pick: Magnus Paajarvi - Yo Pick: OEL
2010 - My Pick: Brandon Gormley - Yo Pick: Brandon Gormley
2010 - My Pick: Emerson Etem - Yo Pick: Mark Visentin
2011 - My Pick: Boone Jenner - Yo Pick: Connor Murphy
2012 - My Pick: Samuelsson - Yo Pick: Samuelsson
2013 - My Pick: Max Domi - Yo Pick: Max Domi
2014 - My Pick: Robby Fabbri - Yo Pick: Brendan Perlini
2015 - My Pick: Dylan Strome - Yo Pick: Dylan Strome
2015 - My Pick: Nick Merkley - Yo Pick: Nick Merkley
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
Where we took Summers, I think I wanted Swan? Both busts.
Where we took Ross, I think I wanted Legein or Sweatt? All busts.
So in terms of deviations that matter, the trade would be:
My Picks:
Bryan Little
Magnus Paajarvi
Emerson Etem
Boone Jenner
Robby Fabbri
Yo Picks:
Peter Mueller
OEL
Mark Visentin
Connor Murphy
Brendan Perlini
OEL kicks my butt here. My group is much worse because of him. If you toss him out, I'm only slightly better.
Where we took Ross, I think I wanted Legein or Sweatt? All busts.
So in terms of deviations that matter, the trade would be:
My Picks:
Bryan Little
Magnus Paajarvi
Emerson Etem
Boone Jenner
Robby Fabbri
Yo Picks:
Peter Mueller
OEL
Mark Visentin
Connor Murphy
Brendan Perlini
OEL kicks my butt here. My group is much worse because of him. If you toss him out, I'm only slightly better.
tucknroll
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- Feb 13, 2015
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Granted Chychrun might not even end up sliding much, but if he does i wouldn't think a lot has to do with Hatcher, it was sad that it took him as long as it did to get his teams structure organized (it was like watching a scrimmage and eventually Konecny would really helped too) but he eventually he got it figured out and you could easily see the difference it made, the whole team was playing their positions
Chychrun got hated on a lot at the beginning of the season but the kid just got back from surgery to play major minutes on a dysfunctional group at the time so its understandable that the start of the year wasn't great for him, but by the end of the year he was a star, he was a shut down D and a point producing machine.... one of the draft analyst members on HFBoards made a really solid comment on him in the Joulevi vs. Chychrun thread
"Juolevi has had brutal games. He's held to a different standard by the media.
Don't know why. But it might boil down to one guy being a safe pick and the other guy being a risk, but anyone who's watched Chychrun all season knows he's capable of playing a safe/smart game.
It's such BS. Chychrun was knocked for his offense in the first half. So what does he do? His production explodes. What do they do? Call him risky and a low IQ.
To me, Chychrun IS the best defenseman because he can do either or. He can play a shutdown role or carry the offense on hiss back.
Juolevi does neither. He's never been asked to. He's a vanilla prospect who does a lot of things well, but when did Hunter ever ask Juolevi to change the momentum of a game or season?
Chychrun has.
To me, it's inconceivable how analysts have soured on him. They either watched him play once or twice or are just using the TPG/U18 as the end-all, be-all.
It's one thing to say Chychrun dropped because of other forwards. Perfectly understandable.
To say Chychrun has been passed by other dmen in his draft class is straight up bananas."
While i think he exaggerated a bit on Joulevi, i do agree that Chychrun is the #1 D in this draft and he has Shane Doan style leadership which i also admire very much about him.
Sarnia was my most watched team this year and from what i learned about Chychrun from talking to people and watching him only made me respect him more.
I made a comment in the Chychrun thread when someone asked if his conditioning might be responsible for these IQ problems that i hope sums him up well
"His conditioning is great, plays more minutes then anyone else on Sarnia without a problem, his thing is that he never does the default easy play when he has no options, hates going off the glass and out or doing a dump and chase because he knows its just giving the puck to the other team, so he often tries difficult breakout passes, which is a great quality for a player at the junior level (especially when you're as good defensively as Chychrun) to be working on because he will be able to start doing the easy plays more without a problem when he hits the NHL, he is NO WHERE NEAR as bad as some people say he is when it comes to hockey IQ. He's clearly not as good of a breakout passer as say Juolevi or Fabbro but thats pretty much all they have on him
Only other thing he struggles at is when he skates the puck in too deep in the offensive zone, he doesn't seem to know what to do once he gets there, but for what he brings to a team i wouldn't care about this because it will only happen likely 2-4 times a game and it's still a player having possession while gaining the offensive zone which is always great
You can say his problem is he tries to do too much, but i'd rather teach a prospect to try and do less rather then trying to get him to do more
Chychrun will likely have alot of similar traits as Ryan Mcdonagh in my opinion but is a better skater, not great offensively but solid with a good shot (30-40 points), amazing defensively, physically, is a leader and does lots of things right"
Personally i believe if this team isn't picking him they better pick a forward because he's their best choice for D. If he does happen to keep falling then one team is going to be very happy because of it
Sergachev is the only D who i think should challenge him for #1 D but like i've said before.. i wouldn't touch him with a top 10 pick because of how nonchalant he plays, i don't trust a player that doesn't look like he cares in his draft year and Chychrun brings better speed and defence.
I don't get to see any junior players during the year, only at the Memorial Cup, and many of the high end players are not there, so all I have is the articles and blogs etc. If I'm the Coyotes, I would take Chychrun, Nylander or Brown at #7 and try and trade up for Bean, Fabbro or McAvoy, and if I can't trade up I take a D with the 20th pick. There should be a pretty good Dman left at that spot. Some were saying the Coyotes are in a good spot at #7, but for me it sucks. DT said they are looking for possession type players with speed.
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On Brown
"In the final 24 games he had 38 points, including 12 multi point games. Then he put up 12 points for the U.S. at the U18's to help them capture the Bronze. But the rise is more than just production based. It's how he was doing it. The knock on Brown has always been his inability to use his size to dominate the middle of the ice consistently, in addition to a wavering intensity level without the puck. He's always been fantastic along the wall, and off the rush, using his size to protect the puck. But the second half of the year, it was like the light finally went on and Brown realized how dominant he could be if he started attacking the net with consistency. Currently listed at 6'6, he might even be bigger than that now. When he makes that power move to the middle of the ice, putting defenders on his back, he's nearly unstoppable. And he has great vision, so when he starts drawing extra attention, it opens up so many opportunities for his linemates. Better yet, I think there's even more potential there, when he improves his confidence in his shot, as he's got a good one. Not a huge fan of comparisons, but sometimes when I watch Brown play, I get a real Mats Sundin vibe from him."
Based on my personal viewings Chychrun should not be in consideration at 7. His decision making was poor. An NHL general manager blurted out to me that he has no hockey sense. He's in free fall on draft day. I don't know how else to politely phrase it.
If you want to hold onto previous rankings go ahead. I don't see him going in top 10. Nor do I think he's top rated D.
It's not a question IF Chychrun is going to drop. It's a question of how far. I can't emphasize this enough.
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Sorry about all the clipping (I realize all of the above is not solely your thoughts), but I only wanted to comment on a few things since I don't follow future prospects much.
I like that he can play both offense and defense, which makes him maleable into the type of player we need.
I like the leadership quality, which would be beneficial if he would stay with us long term. Of course, more than likely more veteran players will get the "C" or "A," but he could still "lead" when given the opportunity.
Dislikes dump and chase? That does not bode well in Tip's system
, but once Tippet leaves (unless he is fired), Chychurn would be at (or close to) his defensive prime (hopefully), so that might work well for us. This #7 pick sucks the more I think about it. Perhaps trading down (if we can acquire a high end prospect or roster player in the process) would be best. How far down depends on what we get in return, but I'd also be comfortable with only the #20 pick with this season's crop at (or around) #7 IF we get something strong in return.
I kind of think Tippett might be thinking this as well, so it would probably be up to Chayka to "analytic" him into picking at #7 depending what trades would be on the table.
tucknroll
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I'm going to use part of a post i saw that will justify my argument so i don't have to do any math right now. along with a highlights video (i know its a highlights video and is only using his best plays, but it shows how saying he has no hockey sense is just incorrect. His ability to always be moving at a high speed and read plays to get open or shut down the other team is incredible and best in the draft for defencemen)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9yk5f2xdkk
Chychrun is one of the best D at getting his shot through traffic and his shot is one of the best in the draft, even if he didn't have a great U-18 that was one of the things he was Canada's best D at other than MAYBE Quenneville, along with his defence, his ability to stop plays, and out skate other players is top notch, plus i don't think a D that went over PPG in the playoffs and had 33 points in his last 37 games can have "no hockey sense" especially when most of his shifts start in the defensive zone, along with being +23 on the season (i know plus/minus isn't a great stat but when he's only on a decent team that even struggled early in the year and starts a lot of shifts on defence i think it's more relevant) and depending on which GM said that makes a difference in my opinion as well. There are plenty of GM's that have terrible judgement when it comes to scouting prospects, and most people that hate on him only got limited viewings.
Just to put in perspective of how silly it is that Joulevi is getting rated better (numbers are the most important part of this)..
"i agree, chychrun has done nothing but impress the second half of the year and his draft ranking has done nothing but slid (down to 9 on some "experts" lists). Sure seems like this kid is getting massively overscouted & nitpicked just like ekblad.
just to put his numbers in some sort of perspective Juolevi has a .74PPG and chychrun .79PPG
if you take the knights top line of marner tkachuk dvorak they scored 344 points combined. Juolevi from the knights games ive seen is on the ice in a 4forward set with them for every powerplay."
Chychrun isn't a QB either but he's a VERY capable D in the Ekblad style of mould, he will burry his amazing shot, keep the puck in the offensive zone while making good passes, play amazing defence and shut down the other teams top players. only part of his game he will need to improve is his breakout passing and default "safe" plays
I'm telling you a NHL GM with a pick in the top 10 said Chychrun has no hockey sense.
That's a direct quote.
He's in free fall.
There is nothing you can post that will change what I saw and what I heard.
That's a direct quote.
He's in free fall.
There is nothing you can post that will change what I saw and what I heard.
tucknroll
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2015
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Sorry about all the clipping (I realize all of the above is not solely your thoughts), but I only wanted to comment on a few things since I don't follow future prospects much.
I like that he can play both offense and defense, which makes him maleable into the type of player we need.
I like the leadership quality, which would be beneficial if he would stay with us long term. Of course, more than likely more veteran players will get the "C" or "A," but he could still "lead" when given the opportunity.
Dislikes dump and chase? That does not bode well in Tip's system
This #7 pick sucks the more I think about it. Perhaps trading down (if we can acquire a high end prospect or roster player in the process) would be best. How far down depends on what we get in return, but I'd also be comfortable with only the #20 pick with this season's crop at (or around) #7 IF we get something strong in return.
I kind of think Tippett might be thinking this as well, so it would probably be up to Chayka to "analytic" him into picking at #7 depending what trades would be on the table.
No worries, appreciate the opinions and insight and you may be right.
the dump and chase thing is a great quality for him i think too, because most times you do a dump and chase you're just giving it back to the other team, where as you can tell in more analytic hockey teams want the players who can skate the puck in or maintain puck possession crossing the opponents blue line because it leads to more scoring chances (its a puck possession game now adays). I'd rather have a player turnover the puck trying to make a play for a scoring chance rather than likely just giving the puck back to the other team. Might lead to a rush against you but thats when having a player that can shut down the other teams forecheck like Chych is also a great bonus. The dump and chase will always be around due to line changes and other scenarios so thats also where having a player with Chychrun's agressivness and speed is a bonus
I personally like the #7 pick i think its a fairly easy spot to choose from still, its not as great as 1-6 of course but there will still be plenty of great choices available and gives them plenty of options especially is someone starts falling
assuming 1-5 goes Matthews, Laine, pulj, Tkachuk/Dubois
Arizona still has to choose from (in order of my best-worst)
Keller/Chychrun/Brown/Jost/Nylander/Joulevi/Sergachev
1 and 2 are a coin toss to me, i just don't want #7 and #20 picks to both be forwards or both be
D so i hope they mix it up a bit (granted if someone falls to either pick) and i REALLY want Cam Dineen so if he's the #20 pick or they trade down a few spots and get him i can live with that but then i'm looking at Keller for #7
tucknroll
Registered User
- Feb 13, 2015
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And i'm saying a lot of GM's aren't the best of scouts, and just because he said a one liner against his hockey sense which is obviously being exaggerated that doesn't justify his reasoning or even mean he has a valid argument as to why he believes that. Most GM's only get limited viewings of players each year, thats why they need scouts to watch the players for them
and from what i saw, and what i've heard from scouts, nothing you post will change my opinion unless there is something in his game that you've seen that i'm clearly missing (and there might be by all means, i'm not perfect, but i've listed a large amounts of his pros and cons. And the pros list heavily outweighs the cons)
strizzy16
Welcome to Life, 2.0
I remember liking Larkin at the time, I think a lot of us forced ourselves to like the Perlini pick lol
GM in question has a background in scouting. Trust me his team will not be taking him at their pick. I guarantee that based on his tone.
Rt and I were high on Fabbri
I wanted anyone but Perlini lol. I swore when we picked. He was a complete no show last half of his draft year.
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mouser
Business of Hockey
- Oct 26, 2006
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rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
Sorry about all the clipping (I realize all of the above is not solely your thoughts), but I only wanted to comment on a few things since I don't follow future prospects much.
I like that he can play both offense and defense, which makes him maleable into the type of player we need.
I like the leadership quality, which would be beneficial if he would stay with us long term. Of course, more than likely more veteran players will get the "C" or "A," but he could still "lead" when given the opportunity.
Dislikes dump and chase? That does not bode well in Tip's system
This #7 pick sucks the more I think about it. Perhaps trading down (if we can acquire a high end prospect or roster player in the process) would be best. How far down depends on what we get in return, but I'd also be comfortable with only the #20 pick with this season's crop at (or around) #7 IF we get something strong in return.
I kind of think Tippett might be thinking this as well, so it would probably be up to Chayka to "analytic" him into picking at #7 depending what trades would be on the table.
I think he meant hates dump and chase when he can't count on his team to regain possession or do anything with the puck.
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