Speculation: 2016 Coyotes Off-Season Roster Discussion - Part 1

[BUX7PHX]

To NSH:
Hanzal
To ARI:
Ekholm
---
To PIT:
Dahlbeck
To ARI:
Cole
Fehr
^PIT fans are open to this (cap space)
--
To COL/VAN/NYI/NYR:
Some asset (???)
To ARI:
Comeau/Hansen/Clutterbuck/Fast
--
UFA: Give Matt Martin an ENOURMOUS 2yr deal w/no clauses
--

Domi-Vermette-Duke
Rieder-Strome-Doan
Nook-Richy-Trade^
Martin-Dvorak-Fehr
Chipchura

OEL-Murphy
Ekholm-Stone
KConn-Michalek
Cole

Smith
Domingue

^lets us expose a lot of guys with good amounts of salary in the expansion draft. I worry we won't meet the salary floor on exposition of roster players. With Martin making too much, and Cole, and some others we're closer.

Makes sense - I think that we would be at roughly $14 M for 4 players (Smith, OEL, Richardson, and Domi) heading into 17-18 season. Doan could re-sign for whatever. Stone, Murphy, Reider, Domingue are RFAs this offseason. Add Duclair, Martinook, and Samuelsson in 16-17 offseason.

Picking up some expiring RFA deals for players that we intend to sign long-term (Orlov) or other deals that pay a good chunk of salary (Ekholm, Scandella) is key. No wonder we are trying to go after two top 4 D (outside of the obvious reason that our D was pathetic) - throw enough money at someone so that the cap floor doesn't hinder us in 17-18 season.

Good news is that we don't have to expose 25% of salary in expansion draft - apparently that was a part that was removed, per reports on May 31st.

 

[cobra427]

The more I think about it, the riskier I think it is to trade Hanzal. It would put way to much pressure on Strome to perform, DVO too if he makes the team. We don't know how either of them will work out at this point and it might take several years for both of them to find their game at this level. Domi/Duclair made a nice transition last year but being offensive minded wingers is the easiest position to make it at the NHL level. Being a 1C or 2C is way more difficult, even 3C is tough.

Vermette/Richardson are solid at 3C/4C. For us to sign a legitimate 1C or 2C as a UFA or to acquire one in a trade would be expensive. Anyone we sign or trade for would be less effective then Hanzal against the big WC centers. Even if we traded Hanzal for a legitimate top 4D like Barrie/Vats/Shatty, I think we are taking a potentially big step backwards. What if Strome/DVO don't work out? What if they become Gormley/Runblad? Everyone is stoked about their potential, but it is just potential. I think one of them will be fine and as expected, and one of them will be less then expected, just how it works. We are in big trouble then if we traded Hanzal.

Assuming his back issues are behind him, I think we need to sign Hanzal this summer as it is the safest bet for us as a team.

 

[Jakey53]

The more I think about it, the riskier I think it is to trade Hanzal. It would put way to much pressure on Strome to perform, DVO too if he makes the team. We don't know how either of them will work out at this point and it might take several years for both of them to find their game at this level. Domi/Duclair made a nice transition last year but being offensive minded wingers is the easiest position to make it at the NHL level. Being a 1C or 2C is way more difficult, even 3C is tough.

Vermette/Richardson are solid at 3C/4C. For us to sign a legitimate 1C or 2C as a UFA or to acquire one in a trade would be expensive. Anyone we sign or trade for would be less effective then Hanzal against the big WC centers. Even if we traded Hanzal for a legitimate top 4D like Barrie/Vats/Shatty, I think we are taking a potentially big step backwards. What if Strome/DVO don't work out? What if they become Gormley/Runblad? Everyone is stoked about their potential, but it is just potential. I think one of them will be fine and as expected, and one of them will be less then expected, just how it works. We are in big trouble then if we traded Hanzal.

Assuming his back issues are behind him, I think we need to sign Hanzal this summer as it is the safest bet for us as a team.

I agree. I want to see how Strome and maybe Dvorak play. We wanted a #1C for so many years, but if Strome struggles his first year, I don't think he will, and we traded Hanzal we are in big trouble. Another consideration is how Hanzal helps the progression of Duke and Domi.

 

[Jakey53]

To NSH:
Hanzal
To ARI:
Ekholm
---
To PIT:
Dahlbeck
To ARI:
Cole
Fehr
^PIT fans are open to this (cap space)
--
To COL/VAN/NYI/NYR:
Some asset (???)
To ARI:
Comeau/Hansen/Clutterbuck/Fast
--
UFA: Give Matt Martin an ENOURMOUS 2yr deal w/no clauses
--

Domi-Vermette-Duke
Rieder-Strome-Doan
Nook-Richy-Trade^
Martin-Dvorak-Fehr
Chipchura

OEL-Murphy
Ekholm-Stone
KConn-Michalek
Cole

Smith
Domingue

^lets us expose a lot of guys with good amounts of salary in the expansion draft. I worry we won't meet the salary floor on exposition of roster players. With Martin making too much, and Cole, and some others we're closer.

I believe you would have to add big time to get Ekholm out of Nashville.

 

[Mosby]

I doubt very much the herninated disc issue is behind Hanzal. Ed Belfour had the same injury playing with Chicago and it plagued him in Dallas, Toronto, and Florida. Multiple surgeries to repair the same injury.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I agree. I want to see how Strome and maybe Dvorak play. We wanted a #1C for so many years, but if Strome struggles his first year, I don't think he will, and we traded Hanzal we are in big trouble. Another consideration is how Hanzal helps the progression of Duke and Domi.

Well, we can compare how Duke and Domi did in the 25% of games that Hanzal didn't suit up...

The concern that I still have with Hanzal was that the team has even stated that Hanzal's back was not an issue this year. And he still missed 25% of games. We are worried about how his back is, when we should be worried about head, shoulders, knees, and toes (knees and toes)

How does Hanzal help the progression of someone when he may be watching from the pressbox while injured? Right now, at this very moment, Hanzal may be at his healthiest. 20 games into the season, where is he? Trade deadline, is he healthy or battling through something? Value is at its peak right now.

Doing nothing with Hanzal and riding out his deal is the most risky b/c we lose him for nothing. Between trading and signing long term? I can't feel more comfortable about a long term deal.

 

[hbk]

What about a Hanzal plus 7 and other assets for Malkin? We could do this.

 

[rt]

What about a Hanzal plus 7 and other assets for Malkin? We could do this.

I imagine he's got a full NMC. I suspect we'd be on his no-go list.

And while I'd certainly sacrifice Hanzal and the 7th OV for Malkin, and while I do feel he's still an incredibly effective hockey player, and one of the best pure hockey talents in the world, he'll be 30 years old in a few weeks and his production has dropped from that 100pt player he once was to a point-per-game type, production-wise.

What would I add to Hanzal and the 7th overall to get a 30 year old point-per-game player that makes 10 million dollars a year? Not much.

 

[cobra427]

Well, we can compare how Duke and Domi did in the 25% of games that Hanzal didn't suit up...

The concern that I still have with Hanzal was that the team has even stated that Hanzal's back was not an issue this year. And he still missed 25% of games. We are worried about how his back is, when we should be worried about head, shoulders, knees, and toes (knees and toes)

How does Hanzal help the progression of someone when he may be watching from the pressbox while injured? Right now, at this very moment, Hanzal may be at his healthiest. 20 games into the season, where is he? Trade deadline, is he healthy or battling through something? Value is at its peak right now.

Doing nothing with Hanzal and riding out his deal is the most risky b/c we lose him for nothing. Between trading and signing long term? I can't feel more comfortable about a long term deal.

We have to sign him this summer or trade him. DM misplayed his hand with Bods. If the injury issue worries us, then he has to be traded. If Hanzal wants too much term or money, we have to trade him. The problem would be another team would want an extension in place to trade for him. Otherwise, we won't get as much value for him. I agree, needs to be resolved this summer. Too much risk in letting it go until the TDL.

 

[Mosby]

Some key dates:

NHL draft - June 24 and 25
UFA interviews allowed as of - June 25

Given the above, maybe we have a feeling out process on the 25th with UFA centers and then move Hanzal on the second day of the draft.

 

[rt]

Some key dates:

NHL draft - June 24 and 25
UFA interviews allowed as of - June 25

Given the above, maybe we have a feeling out process on the 25th with UFA centers and then move Hanzal on the second day of the draft.

I didn't realize this. This is horrible news for us. I thought we'd be able to reach out to Yandle before we did something drastic like move Hanzal or the 7th. Man that sucks.

 

[SniperHF]

I still don't think either of those happen.

Hanzal will go down to the deadline if there isn't an extension.

 

[rt]

If UFAs avoid us like the plague, we draft a kid at 7th, and we hang onto Hanzal, how does our D get any better?

 

[Mosby]

Trade the 7 outright for Barrie, Trouba, etc., and then you don't have to worry about the possibility of UFA rejection.

 

[SniperHF]

If UFAs avoid us like the plague, we draft a kid at 7th, and we hang onto Hanzal, how does our D get any better?

This season, I don't think it will. They'll try to improve it via trade and fail. That leaves UFAs and who the hell knows there.

I don't think most of the teams out there with defensemen to move are all that interested in the 7th and whatever we have to add would be too much or not enough. Especially with Edmonton dangling 4th out there.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Depending on what the cap number winds up at, we could also see some contract buyouts, although it would appear that would primarily be forwards that would see that. I don't see too many D that teams would be looking to get rid of.

As rt said though - it would mean so much to at least get an idea of value. Hanzal is worthy of a late 1st round pick in return, but the Coyotes (and other teams) won't know how to approach that if there isn't initial talks on who can give an extension to Hanzal.

Just do what I have been trying to say all along:

#7, prospect, #37

for

Scandella and #15

We still get great draft value. We get a very good D who is signed for 4(?) more years. Doesn't pigeonhole us into taking a D at #15 necessarily. Or even #20 for that matter, but it would make sense to get a Fabbro, Bean, McAvoy, or the like.

Then if something progresses with Hanzal, we aren't risking much since we have a top 4 D in place already. Lots of ways to go with that.

 

[rt]

Trade the 7 outright for Barrie, Trouba, etc., and then you don't have to worry about the possibility of UFA rejection.

That's my point. It would be a shame to trade the 7th overall for D only to find that Yandle would've been open to a return.

Yandle+7th Overall > Just Barrie

It is what it is, but I wish we could get a phone call into Yandle's people before we considered moving 7th OV for a D.

 

[rt]

#7, prospect, #37

for

Scandella and #15

Which prospect?

Dvorak? Y/N
MacInnis? Y/N
Letunov? Y/N
Perlini? Y/N
Merkley? Y/N
Fischer? Y/N
Samuelsson? Y/N

Depending on the kid, I'd be all over that. Dvorak? Hell no. Letunov? Sure. I have a feeling that Minny wouldn't go for the kids I'd agree to, and they wouldn't agree to the kids I'd let go.

 

[SniperHF]

The bigger problem I find with all the trades is, why does Minnesota want 7? Same goes for all the other teams with defensemen to offer other than the Avs and I think even they would strongly prefer nearer term pieces.

I have a feeling that Minny wouldn't go for the kids I'd agree to, and they wouldn't agree to the kids I'd let go.

That's basically why I think we're stuck right now. Our assets besides picks are either too good or not good enough.

 

[rt]

The bigger problem I find with all the trades is, why does Minnesota want 7? Same goes for all the other teams with defensemen to offer other than the Avs and I think even they would strongly prefer nearer term pieces.



That's basically why I think we're stuck right now. Our assets besides picks are either too good or not good enough.

Well for Minny it's about asset and cap management.

Ryan Suter
Jared Spurgeon
Marco Scandella
Jonas Brodin
Matt Dumba

Is too many to protect against expansion, and a whole hell of a lot of cap share.

I can see them doing this, but not for Letunov. It'll be more like Dvorak. Which I don't want to do.

 

[Kaibur]

What date is the NHLPA vote on the escalator known? It would be huge for us if they finally decide to vote against it.

 

[Mosby]

It would be huge for us if they finally decide to vote against it.

I hope so. Also something to be said about the cap finally going down and Don Maloney isn't a GM. So many teams would be backed into a corner. That's his sweet spot.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Which prospect?

Dvorak? Y/N
MacInnis? Y/N
Letunov? Y/N
Perlini? Y/N
Merkley? Y/N
Fischer? Y/N
Samuelsson? Y/N

Depending on the kid, I'd be all over that. Dvorak? Hell no. Letunov? Sure. I have a feeling that Minny wouldn't go for the kids I'd agree to, and they wouldn't agree to the kids I'd let go.

Dvorak - HN (Hell no)
MacInnis - iffy
Letunov - Y
Perlini - begrudgingly Y (think he will be better in AHL/NHL over juniors and we have no one with the ability to shoot like him)
Merkley - iffy
Fischer - N
Samuelsson - Y

For Minnesota, there are two elements. One is relief for the expansion draft. They have a lot of NMCs and some of their other players without NMCs have very long term contracts (Scandella, Brodin) that almost require protection. Plus, they appear to have little leverage in convincing another team to choose a different player than ones that they may make available. If Neiderreiter and Brodin are not protected, what price do you give an expansion team to take one and not the other? The Wild fans on the board think that they can convince someone to take Zucker. That would cost at least a 1st round pick to not take a top 6 F or top 4 D, if I am running the expansion team. And even then, I hang up the phone and select Brodin.

The second issue is that MIN is looking for a #1 C. In my eyes, Logan Brown is the only one that has potential to be a #1 C. Even Brown is questionable to get there. How many picks does Minnesota have to fade to get Brown? He'd have to be passed on 8 times, which I doubt would take place. We give the Wild the chance to get the top C on the board. Very possible that none of Brown, Jost, or others make it to #15, so it is to MIN's advantage to do so. It helps both us and the Wild by taking away a player that MIN may have to expose, and giving us both a need and a player that we would want to protect as well. Wild have a total of three draft picks this year (1st, 4th, 7th round). Picking up a prospect who is close and a 2nd round pick for a team that needs an infusion of prospect depth makes it very worthwhile, IMO.

The only way that we can guarantee a top 4 D coming into the fold is via trade. Any other top 4 D that comes in is just an icing on the cake scenario.

 

[Mosby]

The Wild look to be a headache in terms of expansion.

They have 3 forward NMCs they must protect, in Parise, Koivu, and Pominville. Vanek also has a NMC but he's either bought out this summer or a UFA next. Then, they need to protect Coyle, Granlund, and Niederreiter. Maybe Haula.

On D, Suter's NMC is automatically protected. Then there are the other big 4 D: Brodin, Scandella, Spurgeon, Dumba.

Remember, you can protect either 8 skaters or 3D+7F. So the Wild can protect all 5 of those D and the 3 F NMCs, but that leaves a guy like Granlund exposed. Or they could protect 4 D, 3 F NMCs, and one other forward, but then they're losing a valuable D. Or, the other scenario, protect 3 D (leaving 2 unprotected) so they can protect 7 forwards. Bolded seems like the most likely scenario.

 

[Mosby]

Just do what I have been trying to say all along:

#7, prospect, #37

for

Scandella and #15

I like this deal if you swap Scandella for Dumba.

For the prospect, I'd move any of Letunov, Merkley, or Samuelsson.