Salary Cap: 2016-17 Roster Building XXIV | You ain't landin' Landy

[Shady Machine]

The issue with giving him a true bridge deal (which would be 2 years probably) is that it takes him straight to unrestricted free agency. It's the same reason I'm hesitant to give Schultz anything but a long term deal, if they only sign him for 1 year, he's as good as gone after next season.

I get that with Sheary but do you believe in him enough to commit 4 years? If he'd sign under 3MM I'd do it, but I don't see why he would.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Krug: 4x5.25m
Barrie: 4x5.5m
Spurgeon: 4x5.18m
Vatanen: 4x4.87m
Shattenkirk: 4x4.25m (the lowest on the list and signed 4 years ago)

Hell even Del Zotto was able to translate a 40pt pace season (33pts in 63 games) into a 2x3.875m contract. And that was 2 years ago. Stone just last year got 4m on a 1 year contract after putting up 6g/36pts. Do you really think if Schultz almost doubles that, that he'll take the same (or less) and term?!

A. Schultz flat out isn't going to continue producing at the rate he has been, I don't know why you keep saying "if he continues his current pace", he's not going to do that. He's not going to finish the year a 60 point defenseman. He's just scoring at an incredibly unsustainable rate right now. He had 6 points in his first 23 games and then followed that up with 27 points in the 23 games following that. I'm expecting him to finish around 50, meaning he puts up 17 points in the remaining 36 games or so. In following seasons, I expect him to be a 40-45 point 2nd pair guy.
B. Krug is a pretty good comparable to Schultz, but at the same time, Krug also had 3 seasons of very good offensive production (40 points, 39 points and 44 points since 2013-2014). He got $1.4 million after his 40 point season, $3.4 million after his 39 point season and $5.25 million after his 44 point season. Schultz is probably going to get something similar to Krug's 2nd contract after this year and he'll cash in as a UFA, whether that be with Pittsburgh or someone else. He'll only be making $5 million+ if he can continue to prove that it isn't just a hot streak right now and he can consistently handle top-4 minutes. The dude is less than a calendar year out of getting kicked to the curb in Edmonton. He hasn't gone from "no one has interest in him beyond a reclamation project" to "$5 million defenseman" in such a short time.
C. All of the guys you listed outside of Krug are clearly much better players than Schultz is. Schultz right now is a middle pair defenseman riding an incredible hot streak. If he wants over $5 million, I'd just let someone else pay him that much.

 

[DegenX]

So, here's a question ... if we did somehow acquire Shattenkirk, and we re-signed him, would he make Letang expendable?

 

[Shady Machine]

Given how badly the Edmonton situation broke Schultz, I think he'll be happy to stick around Pittsburgh for a reasonable price. The Oilers were losing all the time and he was getting way more minutes and responsibility than he could handle.

If he went anywhere else it'd be unlikely that they could shelter him the way we can with Tanger. Money's not everything, and if anyone knows that, it's Schultz. His situation is gravy right now.

People may point to the Nisky example and suggest he'll follow the money, but he didn't have to deal with the expectations of being a prize FA out of university and the Edmonton fishbowl.

I think most of us agree he will want to stay here for a reasonable price. The question is what's reasonable?

I'd say anything between 4-5MM per would be a very good value for the Pens vs what Schultz could command on open market. The tricky thing with him is whether other GMs see his resurrection as a Pens' specific scenario or not. If not, he's getting Nisky level offers.

 

[Shady Machine]

B. Krug is a pretty good comparable to Schultz, but at the same time, Krug also had 3 seasons of very good offensive production (40 points, 39 points and 44 points since 2013-2014). He got $1.4 million after his 40 point season, $3.4 million after his 39 point season and $5.25 million after his 44 point season. Schultz is probably going to get something similar to Krug's 2nd contract after this year and he'll cash in as a UFA, whether that be with Pittsburgh or someone else. He'll only be making $5 million+ if he can continue to prove that it isn't just a hot streak right now and he can consistently handle top-4 minutes. The dude is less than a calendar year out of getting kicked to the curb in Edmonton. He hasn't gone from "no one has interest in him beyond a reclamation project" to "$5 million defenseman" in such a short time.

You are forgetting that Schultz already has a history of producing offense in the NHL, before his struggles, and was paid 3.9MM per. He blew ass for a while, but him producing 40+ points shouldn't really be a surprise and given his age and history of production, he will command that type of money. Anything under 4MM is a steal.

 

[Shady Machine]

So, here's a question ... if we did somehow acquire Shattenkirk, and we re-signed him, would he make Letang expendable?

I'd have to be convinced that Shattenkirk is an all around number 1 dman. I haven't watched enough of his play to know the answer to that. We all get frustrated with Letang on the PP, but he's probably a top 3 ES dman.

 

[Pick87your71Poison]

So, here's a question ... if we did somehow acquire Shattenkirk, and we re-signed him, would he make Letang expendable?

I don't think it would in my mind and don't see a ton of overlap in their roles/skills particularly. Shattenkirk is definitely not the dman that Letang is at 5v5 and doens't have the overall game. If anything, his biggest strength is as a PPQB, which is Letang's biggest weakness. Ideally, you would have both and let Shattenkirk run PP1, but Letang isn't even our best PPQB right now and I don't see how Shattenkirk fills Letang's ES contributions at all.

Adding a guy like Shattenkirk seems more like upgrading on the role Schultz plays than it does replacing Letang.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I get that with Sheary but do you believe in him enough to commit 4 years? If he'd sign under 3MM I'd do it, but I don't see why he would.

I'm confident in him enough to be willing to sign him for 4 years at around $3 million to $3.25 million. Even if he regresses, he's still a solid 2nd/3rd line tweener that can give you 40-50 points a season. That's not too bad of money or term for that kind of production. Do you do that or give him a 1 year deal and risk him raising his price tag even more?

Given how badly the Edmonton situation broke Schultz, I think he'll be happy to stick around Pittsburgh for a reasonable price. The Oilers were losing all the time and he was getting way more minutes and responsibility than he could handle.

If he went anywhere else it'd be unlikely that they could shelter him the way we can with Tanger. Money's not everything, and if anyone knows that, it's Schultz. His situation is gravy right now.

People may point to the Nisky example and suggest he'll follow the money, but he didn't have to deal with the expectations of being a prize FA out of university and the Edmonton fishbowl.

I think this is an understated part. Up to this point in his career, Schultz has earned over $16 million already in 5 seasons in the NHL. Niskanen earned less than $10 million in his first 7 years in the NHL. He's made a good amount of money already, I don't think he'd turn down staying in Pittsburgh over half a million or so per season. If he wants $5.25 million per season on a 4 year deal and Pittsburgh is only offering $4.5, do you really think he'd take his business elsewhere? I can't see it. Along with the Niskanen comparison, wasn't there a rumor that Niskanen wanted to extend with Pittsburgh at like $4 million per season before Shero got fired? He got paid in free agency, but I always thought the Penguins just decided to not re-sign him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You are forgetting that Schultz already has a history of producing offense in the NHL, before his struggles, and was paid 3.9MM per. He blew ass for a while, but him producing 40+ points shouldn't really be a surprise and given his age and history of production, he will command that type of money. Anything under 4MM is a steal.

He made that much because that was his qualifying offer. He got paid out the ass as a college free agent, he made the maximum amount of money on an ELC ($3.775 million). The qualifying offer for that salary was $3.9 million per season, which is why he made that much money.

 

[Gallatin]

I've liked Ruhwedel and Gaunce up, how is it that the defense has played better with those two in it over what the team had before the injuries? It does bother me that both are also out playing Maatta at times. Olli needs to get his act together, we make too many excuses for the kid.

Answer: Our forwards starting playing their Cup game. You know-the one where they hustle all over the ice, pinning teams in the offensive zone, and skating HARD in in the neutral and defensive zones.

 

[mpp9]

It's not a fluke that we won a Cup with a very pedestrian defense on paper. Our forwards speed, two way game and ability to outmatch the opposition going line against line is what will give us the best chance at repeating.

Which is why I have no clue why Maatta's viewed as some untouchable or that we need to add a top 4 D.

 

[Penske]

So, here's a question ... if we did somehow acquire Shattenkirk, and we re-signed him, would he make Letang expendable?

That's very risky. Letang is better and Shatty would want Letangs money.

The flip side of that is what would Letang bring back and could we make it work capwise.

 

[Gallatin]

It's not a fluke that we won a Cup with a very pedestrian defense on paper. Our forwards speed, two way game and ability to outmatch the opposition going line against line is what will give us the best chance at repeating.

Which is why I have no clue why Maatta's viewed as some untouchable or that we need to add a top 4 D.

Do people really still view Maatta as untouchable? Clearly he has yet to find a consistent groove with his thyroid meds. And he may never.

Or he could settle in tomorrow. It's a roll of the dice either way, but a guy like him who's game is based on his mind, will have a hard time unless his meds settle out.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

It's not a fluke that we won a Cup with a very pedestrian defense on paper. Our forwards speed, two way game and ability to outmatch the opposition going line against line is what will give us the best chance at repeating.

Which is why I have no clue why Maatta's viewed as some untouchable or that we need to add a top 4 D.

Even that defensive depth has been whittled away at. Lovejoy is gone, Daley should be gone in the offseason and I'm not going to count on Pouliot to do anything now. The D depth last year was also taken to the edge. Schultz is better now but the top 4 has had issues with performance and staying healthy.

 

[DegenX]

Yeah, I didn't really think he would make Letang expendable, but I wanted a little input. Although, he is a couple years younger, and it's possible he could improve his overall game. Even though the personnel has changed, our staff seems to be rather adept at that sort of thing.

 

[Penske]

Do people really still view Maatta as untouchable? Clearly he has yet to find a consistent groove with his thyroid meds. And he may never.

Or he could settle in tomorrow. It's a roll of the dice either way, but a guy like him who's game is based on his mind, will have a hard time unless his meds settle out.

No he's not untouchable but I think they will give him that time to adjust especially considering our owner is Mario. He's been good this season and expecting the improvements to continue into next season.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's not a fluke that we won a Cup with a very pedestrian defense on paper. Our forwards speed, two way game and ability to outmatch the opposition going line against line is what will give us the best chance at repeating.

Which is why I have no clue why Maatta's viewed as some untouchable or that we need to add a top 4 D.

I don't view Maatta as untouchable, but you certainly need to replace him if you move him.

I keep coming back to Ben Hutton, who may be the only expansion exempt top-4 D who wouldn't cost a fortune to acquire. With Vancouver looking for help at forward, the Penguins could definitely dangle one of Rust or Hagelin for Hutton and see if they bit on it. That way, you could easily move Maatta for a replacement winger and go with the 7-3 route (protect Schultz, Letang and Dumoulin since Hutton is exempt).

 

[Riptide]

A. Schultz flat out isn't going to continue producing at the rate he has been, I don't know why you keep saying "if he continues his current pace", he's not going to do that. He's not going to finish the year a 60 point defenseman. He's just scoring at an incredibly unsustainable rate right now. He had 6 points in his first 23 games and then followed that up with 27 points in the 23 games following that. I'm expecting him to finish around 50, meaning he puts up 17 points in the remaining 36 games or so. In following seasons, I expect him to be a 40-45 point 2nd pair guy.

Yes he did. However if you look at his usage over those 23 games, it was a LOT different then how he was (and is currently) being used.

First 23 games: 14:57 ES, 1:48 PP, 16:51 TTOI
Last 23 games: 18:14 ES, 2:47 PP, 21:08 TTOI

Do I think he'll put up 30+ points in his remaining 36 games? No. But neither do I think 20+ is unrealistic. Which puts him solidly in the 50-60 range.

B. Krug is a pretty good comparable to Schultz, but at the same time, Krug also had 3 seasons of very good offensive production (40 points, 39 points and 44 points since 2013-2014). He got $1.4 million after his 40 point season, $3.4 million after his 39 point season and $5.25 million after his 44 point season. Schultz is probably going to get something similar to Krug's 2nd contract after this year and he'll cash in as a UFA, whether that be with Pittsburgh or someone else. He'll only be making $5 million+ if he can continue to prove that it isn't just a hot streak right now and he can consistently handle top-4 minutes. The dude is less than a calendar year out of getting kicked to the curb in Edmonton. He hasn't gone from "no one has interest in him beyond a reclamation project" to "$5 million defenseman" in such a short time.

Schultz might sign something similar to Krug's 2nd extension - if you're talking about a 1 year deal (although that was also sign 3 years ago, so even then that's probably on the low end). But you're not, you're trying to suggest that he'll take that AAV and then take 3-4 years of term. That's extremely unlikely to happen.

If he plays 60 games as a top 4D getting 20+ minutes a night and puts up ~50 points in those 60 games, do you not think that that's enough consistency to show that this isn't just a "hot streak"? In that situation he will have played 3/4 of the season at a pretty high level.

You yourself have said multiple times that he's a top 4D. Guess what... top 4 RHD in today's NHL get paid, even as RFAs. And they especially get paid when you're buying UFA years, which anything longer than 1 year will do.

C. All of the guys you listed outside of Krug are clearly much better players than Schultz is. Schultz right now is a middle pair defenseman riding an incredible hot streak. If he wants over $5 million, I'd just let someone else pay him that much.

I think to an extent that's debateable. But my point isn't so much "if he wants over 5m" as much as it's "he's going to want more than 3.5-4m". And if he puts up 50+ points, he's going to deserve it. Could he sign a 3.5-4.25m contract? Absolutely. But it's probably going to be a pretty short one (aka 1, maybe 2 years if we're lucky). If you want term, you'd better be prepared to pay more than 4m.

 

[Riptide]

So, here's a question ... if we did somehow acquire Shattenkirk, and we re-signed him, would he make Letang expendable?

Probably. But given that their contracts will likely be pretty similar, and that I think Letang is a better all around player, I'm not sure I'd make that move.

 

[Gallatin]

Yes he did. However if you look at his usage over those 23 games, it was a LOT different then how he was (and is currently) being used.

First 23 games: 14:57 ES, 1:48 PP, 16:51 TTOI
Last 23 games: 18:14 ES, 2:47 PP, 21:08 TTOI

Do I think he'll put up 30+ points in his remaining 36 games? No. But neither do I think 20+ is unrealistic. Which puts him solidly in the 50-60 range.



Schultz might sign something similar to Krug's 2nd extension - if you're talking about a 1 year deal (although that was also sign 3 years ago, so even then that's probably on the low end). But you're not, you're trying to suggest that he'll take that AAV and then take 3-4 years of term. That's extremely unlikely to happen.

If he plays 60 games as a top 4D getting 20+ minutes a night and puts up ~50 points in those 60 games, do you not think that that's enough consistency to show that this isn't just a "hot streak"? In that situation he will have played 3/4 of the season at a pretty high level.

You yourself have said multiple times that he's a top 4D. Guess what... top 4 RHD in today's NHL get paid, even as RFAs. And they especially get paid when you're buying UFA years, which anything longer than 1 year will do.



I think to an extent that's debateable. But my point isn't so much "if he wants over 5m" as much as it's "he's going to want more than 3.5-4m". And if he puts up 50+ points, he's going to deserve it. Could he sign a 3.5-4.25m contract? Absolutely. But it's probably going to be a pretty short one (aka 1, maybe 2 years if we're lucky). If you want term, you'd better be prepared to pay more than 4m.

JR gave Olli a 6yr contract at 4.1 per last year. If Shultz gets over 50pts this season (which seems like a given at this point) he is going to need to beat that deal to sign longterm here. Just my 2 cents.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

Answer: Our forwards starting playing their Cup game. You know-the one where they hustle all over the ice, pinning teams in the offensive zone, and skating HARD in in the neutral and defensive zones.

Maybe our forwards are playing better, though it wasn't that long ago we lost four in a row and gave up a lot of goals so I'm thinking this is hearsay.

Frankly, and I have never been one to pump up a newcomer from the minors so early, but to me part of the reason is that Ruhwedel is honestly not much worse than some of the guys on the permanent roster, namely Dumo and Maatta. I'm not exactly saying that he's a 3/4 defender, but he's never looked bad that I can recall, can pass the puck, and looks very comfortable doing things like pinching down the offensive boards and such. What I am saying though is it's going to eventually be high time to consider that he can play in this league at a decent level, and again I never say that about guys that have played so few games.

 

[Peat]

2-3 years usually, but if you want to give him 4 years, I'd understand.

I guess my thinking is that Sheary has earned 3+MM or so per year (arguably 4MM). However, I'm not convinced he's worth that much for 4 or more years so I don't want to lock him up yet, until we have a little more comfort around him.

I probably misused the term bridge as I didn't research his UFA status before posting "bridge deal".

Looking at some of the left wingers getting 4m a year, Sheary's production could recede a fair amount and still fit into the general ball park.

 

[Shady Machine]

I'm confident in him enough to be willing to sign him for 4 years at around $3 million to $3.25 million. Even if he regresses, he's still a solid 2nd/3rd line tweener that can give you 40-50 points a season. That's not too bad of money or term for that kind of production. Do you do that or give him a 1 year deal and risk him raising his price tag even more?

I wouldn't give him a 1 year deal. I would explore a 2 or 3 year deal before a long term extension.

 

[Riptide]

He made that much because that was his qualifying offer. He got paid out the ass as a college free agent, he made the maximum amount of money on an ELC ($3.775 million). The qualifying offer for that salary was $3.9 million per season, which is why he made that much money.

I don't think so. When I added up his career earnings earlier this year, I pegged it around the 10m mark. Looking closer, that looks to be closer to 8.95-9.5m. Even with an impressive rookie campaign, it's unlikely he hit any of his schedule B bonuses (the 2m bonus). Which means that he would have been limited to schedule A bonuses (850k at most) over those 2 ELC years. He might have hit that in his rookie campaign, however some of that would have been offset by the lockout (and it's possible due to how performance bonuses are worded that he didn't hit any of them due to only playing 48 NHL games). According to THN (at least in 2012), "No defenseman has ever maxed out on his performances bonuses as an entry level player".

I said this summer (and I still stand by it) that his previous earnings were enough to allow him to be really choosy in July 2016. Going forward (and after the Edmonton situation) I don't think he'll "chase the money" in the sense that he'll want to max out asap. But neither do I think he'll leave a significant amount on the table to stay in Pittsburgh. He likely did that (to an extent) last summer - and is being rewarded for that. At some point in the near future he'll want to be rewarded for what he's done here.

 

[KIRK]

Do people really still view Maatta as untouchable? Clearly he has yet to find a consistent groove with his thyroid meds. And he may never.

Or he could settle in tomorrow. It's a roll of the dice either way, but a guy like him who's game is based on his mind, will have a hard time unless his meds settle out.

Maatta is not untouchable.