Salary Cap: 2016-17 Roster Building XXIV | You ain't landin' Landy

[Daeni10]

No just a bunch of Germans.


I'd give him a 2 year deal. If he's still putting up good numbers after that then sign him to 4 years.

Hey what do you mean by that

I also think that 2 years would be optimal for us unless he would do a cheap 4 year deal or something but he has no reason to do it. It would be a win-win for him and the Pens. He can prove that he is a great left winger and probably one of the best in the league if he scores like that for 3 years, and Pittsburgh does not have to take a risk on him.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think so. When I added up his career earnings earlier this year, I pegged it around the 10m mark. Looking closer, that looks to be closer to 8.95-9.5m. Even with an impressive rookie campaign, it's unlikely he hit any of his schedule B bonuses (the 2m bonus). Which means that he would have been limited to schedule A bonuses (850k at most) over those 2 ELC years. He might have hit that in his rookie campaign, however some of that would have been offset by the lockout (and it's possible due to how performance bonuses are worded that he didn't hit any of them due to only playing 48 NHL games).

I said this summer (and I still stand by it) that his previous earnings were enough to allow him to be really choosy in July 2016. Going forward (and after the Edmonton situation) I don't think he'll "chase the money" in the sense that he'll want to max out asap. But neither do I think he'll leave a significant amount on the table to stay in Pittsburgh. He likely did that (to an extent) last summer - and is being rewarded for that. At some point in the near future he'll want to be rewarded for what he's done here.

http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/player_stats/1866-schultz-justin

Here is Schultz's contract history. He had the 2 year ELC (925k plus bonuses), signed a 1 year deal at $3.675 million and then signed a 1 year deal at $3.9 million (his qualifying offer of his 2nd contract). He got the $3.675 million deal after putting up 27 points in 48 games in his rookie season and 33 points in 74 games in his sophomore season. It could have also been the qualifying offer of his ELC if he finished with the equivalent of a $3.5 million cap hit from his ELC and bonuses.

 

[Shady Machine]

Looking at some of the left wingers getting 4m a year, Sheary's production could recede a fair amount and still fit into the general ball park.

It could, but I also expect it to.

In my view, you need to decide if Sheary is Crosby's LW'er or not. If you know he's Crosby's LW'er and you want to commit to that, then sure, sign him to a 4 year deal. If you are on the fence, push for a 2 year prove it deal at around 3MM (at least within that framework).

Sheary will likely get minimal PP time and he doesn't PK, so you are looking at a pure ES player. He needs to produce at 45ES points to be worth 4MM a year. So far, he's blowing that out of the water, but let's see how he finishes the year before deciding.

 

[KIRK]

I don't think so. When I added up his career earnings earlier this year, I pegged it around the 10m mark. Looking closer, that looks to be closer to 8.95-9.5m. Even with an impressive rookie campaign, it's unlikely he hit any of his schedule B bonuses (the 2m bonus). Which means that he would have been limited to schedule A bonuses (850k at most) over those 2 ELC years. He might have hit that in his rookie campaign, however some of that would have been offset by the lockout (and it's possible due to how performance bonuses are worded that he didn't hit any of them due to only playing 48 NHL games).

I said this summer (and I still stand by it) that his previous earnings were enough to allow him to be really choosy in July 2016. Going forward (and after the Edmonton situation) I don't think he'll "chase the money" in the sense that he'll want to max out asap. But neither do I think he'll leave a significant amount on the table to stay in Pittsburgh. He likely did that (to an extent) last summer - and is being rewarded for that. At some point in the near future he'll want to be rewarded for what he's done here.

For sure. At the same time, he's a RFA who has found his salvation in Pittsburgh. He's 26. I think he'll leave some money on the table and do a 2-3 year deal, then figure he'll get his big cash in on the subsequent deal. Not unlike Niskanen, I think, in terms of the deals . . .

 

[Peat]

It could, but I also expect it to.

In my view, you need to decide if Sheary is Crosby's LW'er or not. If you know he's Crosby's LW'er and you want to commit to that, then sure, sign him to a 4 year deal. If you are on the fence, push for a 2 year prove it deal at around 3MM (at least within that framework).

Sheary will likely get minimal PP time and he doesn't PK, so you are looking at a pure ES player. He needs to produce at 45ES points to be worth 4MM a year. So far, he's blowing that out of the water, but let's see how he finishes the year before deciding.

Werd.

I'm pretty high on Sheary. I think he meshes with Crosby to a scary degree and think he's also showed a decent ability to kickstart things by himself when away from Sid this season. For me, the biggest question is how he handles the fatigue of a full season. If he's still trucking at the end of it, I think I gamble on him being a long term fit with Sheary.

Said the guy who thought HBK would be a good unit this season...

 

[Riptide]

I wouldn't give him a 1 year deal. I would explore a 2 or 3 year deal before a long term extension.

Agreed. If he signs a 1 year deal and repeats what he did/is doing this year, he'll get a huge pay increase. I'd much rather sign the best 3-4 year deal I can (even if it's in the mid 3s) and risk having an expensive-ish middle 6 creative forward with the reward of having a cheap winger who can put up 50+ points while not seeing #1PP time.

He's currently on pace for 66.9pts. He won't hit that because he missed some games (and that's assuming he keeps up his current production). But if he comes close to that, and does something similar next season while on a one year contract, he's going to get 5m+ in July 2018. I'd much rather run the risk of having him at 3.5/4m with term as a middle six winger for a few years then have to pay him if he puts up back to back 55+ point seasons without seeing any significant PP time.

Edit.

Sheary will likely get minimal PP time and he doesn't PK, so you are looking at a pure ES player. He needs to produce at 45ES points to be worth 4MM a year. So far, he's blowing that out of the water, but let's see how he finishes the year before deciding.

In the last 5 years, only 85 forwards have had 45+ ES points seasons. Scanning the list, almost all are making 5m+. My point being I think we need to adjust our thinking a little here with regards to what a 40pt+ ES player is worth.

 

[Riptide]

http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/player_stats/1866-schultz-justin

Here is Schultz's contract history. He had the 2 year ELC (925k plus bonuses), signed a 1 year deal at $3.675 million and then signed a 1 year deal at $3.9 million (his qualifying offer of his 2nd contract). He got the $3.675 million deal after putting up 27 points in 48 games in his rookie season and 33 points in 74 games in his sophomore season. It could have also been the qualifying offer of his ELC if he finished with the equivalent of a $3.5 million cap hit from his ELC and bonuses.

His QO in the summer of 2015 wouldn't have included any bonuses that he may have received. That's something that's strictly related to one's actual salary from the previous season. And he wouldn't have hit any of those 2m bonuses for his rookie seasons. Which means at max (assuming he maxed out his schedule A performance bonuses), he earned 850k in bonuses, or 1.7m in 2 years over his ~1.4m in salary from his 2 year ELC. The lockout would have cost him ~400k or so. Which means his actual compensation would have looked something like this:

2012/13 - ELC, 925k (-~400k due to games played), 850k in bonuses (assuming he maxed them out).
2013/14 - ELC, 925k, 850k in bonuses
2014/15 - 3.675m
2015/16 - 3.9m
2016/17 - 1.4m
ELC bonuses (maxed out): 1.7m

Total (without bonuses): 10.42m
Total (with bonuses): 12.12m

 

[KIRK]

Agreed. If he signs a 1 year deal and repeats what he did/is doing this year, he'll get a huge pay increase. I'd much rather sign the best 3-4 year deal I can (even if it's in the mid 3s) and risk having an expensive-ish middle 6 creative forward with the reward of having a cheap winger who can put up 50+ points while not seeing #1PP time.

He's currently on pace for 66.9pts. He won't hit that because he missed some games (and that's assuming he keeps up his current production). But if he comes close to that, and does something similar next season while on a one year contract, he's going to get 5m+ in July 2018. I'd much rather run the risk of having him at 3.5/4m with term as a middle six winger for a few years then have to pay him if he puts up back to back 55+ point seasons without seeing any significant PP time.

I suspect that to sign a deal in the mid 3's, Schultz will want the contract to expire before he turns 30. At that number, he'd sign for 2 years, maybe 3. 4 years? A deal that expires after he's turned 30? I think you're paying over 4M for that.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Hey what do you mean by that

I also think that 2 years would be optimal for us unless he would do a cheap 4 year deal or something but he has no reason to do it. It would be a win-win for him and the Pens. He can prove that he is a great left winger and probably one of the best in the league if he scores like that for 3 years, and Pittsburgh does not have to take a risk on him.

I meant nothing by it. That's the title of a good WW2 movie. The Germans actually win in it too.

 

[Riptide]

I suspect that to sign a deal in the mid 3's, Schultz will want the contract to expire before he turns 30. At that number, he'd sign for 2 years, maybe 3. 4 years? A deal that expires after he's turned 30? I think you're paying over 4M for that.

Schultz or Sheary? That post you quoted was referencing Sheary.

 

[KIRK]

Schultz or Sheary? That post you quoted was referencing Sheary.

Oh ****, sorry, I thought it was referencing Schultz.

As for Sheary, a 2 year deal means he's a UFA when he expires. I'd shoot for a third year, maybe a fourth, if I'm going into the mid 3's.

 

[Gallatin]

Maybe our forwards are playing better, though it wasn't that long ago we lost four in a row and gave up a lot of goals so I'm thinking this is hearsay.

Frankly, and I have never been one to pump up a newcomer from the minors so early, but to me part of the reason is that Ruhwedel is honestly not much worse than some of the guys on the permanent roster, namely Dumo and Maatta. I'm not exactly saying that he's a 3/4 defender, but he's never looked bad that I can recall, can pass the puck, and looks very comfortable doing things like pinching down the offensive boards and such. What I am saying though is it's going to eventually be high time to consider that he can play in this league at a decent level, and again I never say that about guys that have played so few games.

It's not hearsay, it's using your eyes and knowledge. The perceived improvement of our D the last 3 games is night and day from the previous 3 games.

What changed? Well Geno took responsibility for the team's failures and started playing defense like his life depended on it. Most of the team is following his example.

And Ruhwedel does look like a legit 6/7 so far, but that's only part of the answer.

Murray making key early saves, and giving a chance for his team to get rolling is another.

But it all means little unless the forwards return to their Cup game of last season. That Mos Def is happening.

 

[Riptide]

Oh ****, sorry, I thought it was referencing Schultz.

As for Sheary, a 2 year deal means he's a UFA when he expires. I'd shoot for a third year, maybe a fourth, if I'm going into the mid 3's.

Yeah, I think we're in agreement with Sheary. Get the most term we can while keeping his cap hit reasonable. The 3x3.3m contracts that TBs triplet line signed would be nice.

I don't think many agree with me as to what Schultz will get. I think we'll have a hard time signing him to a 4m contract. And if we do, it won't be with any term. I think the demand/market for a top 4, RH OFD is a lot more than what some think we'll get him signed for. Him being an RFA doesn't really change that.

I guess we'll see how that plays out this spring/summer.

 

[Daeni10]

I meant nothing by it. That's the title of a good WW2 movie. The Germans actually win in it too.

Wait there is a WW2 movie where the Germans win????

EDIT: holy **** I am so dumb I even watched it

 

[DegenX]

New thread is here