Proposal: 2015 Offseason Trade Rumours & Proposals | Part VII | Dominoes Everywhere! Edition

[OgieO]

Michalek = 4mil
Greening = 3mil
Neil = 1.8 mil
Phillips = 2.5 mil
Smith = 1.6 mil


Ew

NHL Numbers has slightly different numbers (not sure who is correct):
Greening 2.75
Neil 1.5
Smith 2.0
(MM and Phillips were the same).

Greening is less, but still looks pretty bad even if you consider 2.75 is fairly cheap these days. He gives us basically nothing above a replacement player (who'd make $900K). Neil and Smith just don't cost that much and really aren't bad deals at all. I don't like MM's deal, that may be the worst value considering he's often hurt and goes on streaks where he's pretty bad. Even now, $4M should get you more than 15 goals imo. I also didn't (and don't) like the re-signing of Phillips but, again, he's not that expensive and does bring leaderhsip.

But more to the point. For the few bad contracts we have (and none are cripling), the bargains on Turris and Karlsson more than offset any excess we've given MM, Greening and Phillips. Turris at 3.5 might be one of the top 5 contracts in the league. Karlsson is probably 2 or 3 million under value as well. *****ing about a couple of bad contracts is really cherry picking and unfair.

 

[Big Papi]

Not sure about the hate on with MM. Maybe it's from watching the games as opposed to the stat line but prior to his injury he was on fire, playing good two way hockey.

 

[Boud]

NHL Numbers has slightly different numbers (not sure who is correct):
Greening 2.75
Neil 1.5
Smith 2.0
(MM and Phillips were the same).

Greening is less, but still looks pretty bad even if you consider 2.75 is fairly cheap these days. He gives us basically nothing above a replacement player (who'd make $900K). Neil and Smith just don't cost that much and really aren't bad deals at all. I don't like MM's deal, that may be the worst value considering he's often hurt and goes on streaks where he's pretty bad. Even now, $4M should get you more than 15 goals imo. I also didn't (and don't) like the re-signing of Phillips but, again, he's not that expensive and does bring leaderhsip.

But more to the point. For the few bad contracts we have (and none are cripling), the bargains on Turris and Karlsson more than offset any excess we've given MM, Greening and Phillips. Turris at 3.5 might be one of the top 5 contracts in the league. Karlsson is probably 2 or 3 million under value as well. *****ing about a couple of bad contracts is really cherry picking and unfair.

Greening has a 2,65M cap hit
Actual salary:
2015-16 = 2.75M
2016-17 = 3.2M

Smith has a 1,887,500 cap hit
Actual salary:
2015-16 = 2M
2016-17 = 2.35M

Neil has a 1,9M cap hit
Actual salary:
2015-16 = 1,5M

 

[RedWhiteBlackGold]

Not sure about the hate on with MM. Maybe it's from watching the games as opposed to the stat line but prior to his injury he was on fire, playing good two way hockey.

He just can't seem to stay healthy. He gets injured, comes back and starts off slow, gets thing going, gets sidelined. Rinse and repeat.

I don't hate him, he can be a good top 6 winger, just too fragile.

 

[sens613]

He just can't seem to stay healthy. He gets injured, comes back and starts off slow, gets thing going, gets sidelined. Rinse and repeat.

I don't hate him, he can be a good top 6 winger, just too fragile.

Agree. Really he is probably a million over paid. I can deal with it he is super versatile and seems like he would be a good enough guy in the room. While not a good contract by any means I do like having mm9 on the team.

 

[Sens Rule]

Not sure about the hate on with MM. Maybe it's from watching the games as opposed to the stat line but prior to his injury he was on fire, playing good two way hockey.

Agreed. He was really meh offensively to start the year... But the stretch during our streak... He replaced MacArthur and was better from that point until the injury then MacArthur was all year... Or then Michalek himself had been for an extended period since the season he was an all-star playing with Spezza.

Michalek is always streaky... And has been his whole career. But to play like he did at a key time for 5/6 weeks at that consistently high level game to game, every game made me believe he still has quite a bit in the tank and still is worthy of his contract. Even when not scoring he is decent enough. If he can go on long stretch's of what is basically his career peak type of performance... I think if healthy he can be very effective.

If Michalek can play like he did then most of the year. If Ryan can play like he did just before the big run where he seemed to be a physical two-way PPG leader... Then wow! This could be a great forward group if the 4 key RFAs in our top 9 all improve slightly as well. Puempel and or Prince become NHL regulars with some offensive pop. Lazar stops just playing uber-safe hockey and gets in the offensive mix more. Ceci has a career year so far. Wideman has a Priessing like affect on the bottom pairing. Karlsson is truly the PPG guy he was with Methot all year not for half.

Almost all of these things could happen. Most are actually likely.

I truly believe if we have a pretty healthy season that we could be a contender to win the Cup this season. We could be buyers at the deadline to add the one or two remaining pieces... And we will have the Cap space and draft picks to do it too.

We could be a lot closer then many think if everyone... Including vets like Ryan and Michalek can play near their very best most of the year.

I don't understand trading Michalek to just get rid of his cap hit or roster spot. When neither is holding us back... And a hot Michalek is a difference maker and a cold Michalek is still a plus defensively and on the PK. The argument is always we are 2 or 3 years away. But really we could be closer then many think to a deep playoff run if we are lucky in terms of health and the young guys improving vs maintaining or declining.

 

[OgieO]

MM misses about 15 games a year it seems. Last two years he's given us an average of 15 goals a year. 17 in 2013-14, then 13 last year.

It's not hate, its a realization that he's not producing enough to justify his salary. He's not a bad player, he's just not producing like a $4,000,000 player.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

MM misses about 15 games a year it seems. Last two years he's given us an average of 15 goals a year. 17 in 2013-14, then 13 last year.

It's not hate, its a realization that he's not producing enough to justify his salary. He's not a bad player, he's just not producing like a $4,000,000 player.

4 million these days is the kinda salary a middle 6 forward makes. Michalek might be a tad overpaid, but his contract isn't terrible by any means.

 

[Micklebot]

4 million these days is the kinda salary a middle 6 forward makes. Michalek might be a tad overpaid, but his contract isn't terrible by any means.

That's kinda what I was thinking...

Vermette just signed for 3.75 and puts up similar points. Beleskey just got 3.8 for 5 years. David Jones at 4.0 m is another similar contract for a ~40pts player.

Michalek is pretty versitile, can play any situation on any line. Can even play both wings, and is solid defensively.

My only gripe is his health.

 

[aragorn]

That's kinda what I was thinking...

Vermette just signed for 3.75 and puts up similar points. Beleskey just got 3.8 for 5 years. David Jones at 4.0 m is another similar contract for a ~40pts player.

Michalek is pretty versitile, can play any situation on any line. Can even play both wings, and is solid defensively.

My only gripe is his health.

Agreed. Hockey players get injured, especially as they get older, it's the nature of the beast. I like Michalek's experience & he still puts up points, he was great when they played him with Stone & Turris, they made a good line. I think he would produce more if he were consistently on a line with other offensive players instead of stuck on a checking line. A Puempel - Pageau - Michalek line would be interesting.

 

[Cosmix]

[/B]

That would be true if you were unable to read what I wrote. I said he hits, which is true. He had twice as many hits as Spezza last year, and unlike Spezza he takes his bumps in the corners and is not afraid to get hit. This makes him effective in the corners. He is far more a physical player than not.

I watched all the games since Condra joined the team. He has NEVER been a physical player and avoids hitting. He is a decent 4th liner who has better than average speed and is conservatively defensive in nature. Good PKer.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

NHL Numbers has slightly different
But more to the point. For the few bad contracts we have (and none are cripling), the bargains on Turris and Karlsson more than offset any excess we've given MM, Greening and Phillips. Turris at 3.5 might be one of the top 5 contracts in the league. Karlsson is probably 2 or 3 million under value as well. *****ing about a couple of bad contracts is really cherry picking and unfair.

More for the reason to take advantage of these contracts.

We aren't doing enough to try and win and before you know it we'll be paying Turris and Karlsson much more money than what they are making now.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The only scary contract Ottawa has is Ryan's if he gets injured a lot and slows down. Even with his cold streaks and injuries, he's looked fine thus far.

Michalek's contract is market value. It isn't a bargain, but it is not a terrible deal for a middle 6 forward who plays in all situations and can put roughly .5PPG.

All of Ottawa's bad contracts are coming up soon, and judging by their handling of players who have come up this year as RFAs and UFAs, they've learned their lesson.

Neil and Phillips are both up after this year. Greening is up after next year. Smith isn't really a bad contract but is also up after next year, can't argue with 2M for a veteran bottom 6 C. If he continues to struggle, than maybe. But he had one bad season in a very transitional year for the team.

Aside from the contracts mentioned, let's also not forget about the fact that Methot is only making 4.9M. He couldn't even squeeze that extra 100k out of them to get an even 5. Methot is probably at least 1 million under paid. Even with the restraint GMs have shown, what would he have gotten on the open market this year if he was willing to take the best offer and didn't want to take a discount to stay in Ottawa?

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

I dont think Michalek is a great two way player. I think hes average defensively at best. Can anyone show me stats or maybe some evidence hes a good two way player? In spezza's final year i would say he was awful defensively

PPG doesnt really matter with michalek. A guy who plays more games but puts up more points at a lower PPG might be more useful. Look at michalek's history. Basically a 30-40 point player every year. Sens paid 4 mil for 34 points. Is 34 points worth 4 mil?

 

[BonkTastic]

Can anyone show me stats or maybe some evidence hes a good two way player?

Hey, if you can find an actual, tangible stat that accurately measures defensive play, can you let the rest of the hockey world know?


We've been looking for it for a while now. We thought we had it back in 2012, but it turns out it was just gas.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Hey, if you can find an actual, tangible stat that accurately measures defensive play, can you let the rest of the hockey world know?

We've been looking for it for a while now.

Theres noting concrete but there is things you can point to that might hint at better defensive play.

I just hear michalek is a good defensive player on this board and its lost on me. Even when he scored 30 i didnt think he was a great two way player. Just average at best. He was bad defensively in spezza's last year imo. I dont think anyone would refute that either

Michalek in this last playoff also looked like a defensive liability to me.

 

[Othello*]

I dont think Michalek is a great two way player. I think hes average defensively at best. Can anyone show me stats or maybe some evidence hes a good two way player? In spezza's final year i would say he was awful defensively

PPG doesnt really matter with michalek. A guy who plays more games but puts up more points at a lower PPG might be more useful. Look at michalek's history. Basically a 30-40 point player every year. Sens paid 4 mil for 34 points. Is 34 points worth 4 mil?

You can't,Michalek being defensively responsible is the biggest myth in this board.He's mediocre defensively and for a 30 point players he's overpaid.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Milo scores 20 goals nex year book it.

 

[Othello*]

Milo scores 20 goals nex year book it.

I'll say he'll score 10

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

You can't. He's mediocre defensively and for a 30 point players he's overpaid.

I dont mind michalek to tell the truth. I think hes a 4 mil talent i just dont think he provide 4 mil value or at least his value is lost on us when hes not a long term piece of the team.

 

[BonkTastic]

I just hear michalek is a good defensive player on this board and its lost on me.

- Watch him cover massive amounts of the ice during an opposition team's breakout and cut off options and forcing the puck carrier into low-percentage options. It's arguably his best defensive skill, he eats up so much neutral zone room on a rush and forces the opposing team into making either regrouping or making a play that could force a turnover.

- Watch his positioning in the defensive zone, and watch how he shuts down options.

- Watch his hustle back into the defensive zone, and his stick work when chasing a player.

- Watch his work in the corners.


No one is calling him a future Selke winner here, but he's quite a tick better than average. He's good. Not elite, he's not super-physical or a shot-blocking machine, but quite good. That he's been the defensive conscience on so many lines since he's been here should be a pretty good tip that he's got a handle on it.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Milo scores 20 goals nex year book it.

It wouldnt surprise me because he has the talent. History shows us its unlikely though

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

- Watch him cover massive amounts of the ice during an opposition team's breakout and cut off options and forcing the puck carrier into low-percentage options. It's arguably his best defensive skill, he eats up so much neutral zone room on a rush and forces the opposing team into making either regrouping or making a play that could force a turnover.

- Watch his positioning in the defensive zone, and watch how he shuts down options.

- Watch his hustle back into the defensive zone, and his stick work when chasing a player.

- Watch his work in the corners.


No one is calling him a future Selke winner here, but he's quite a tick better than average. He's good. Not elite, but quite good.

These three i disagree with. I think he works hard in the corners but is better when hes on the forcheck. I think his hustle back is average. Disagree with his positioning and he doesnt really hound other players forcing them to make mistakes. Actually i probably disagree with all 4.

Im not saying hes awful but im not saying hes very good. How can it be that people are seeing total opposites from you? I mean im not saying hes sucks but you will find people who says he sucks defensively

 

[BonkTastic]

I'll say he'll score 10

A pessimistic prediction of 10 goals from one of HFSens biggest Michalek haters equals 20+ goals in real life. The conversion is roughly 2:1, but I'll have to check with the NHL Central Banking Offices to find out what the official conversion rate for the day is.

Regardless, I'll take it.

 

[BonkTastic]

Actually i probably disagree with all 4.

Yeah, that doesn't surprise me.