2015 NHL Draft Thread Full of Hope and Optimism

[InjuredChoker]

does detroit at this point need prospect depth or prospect quality?

i can appreciate the argument the more depth you have the better odds of finding a high end elite guy but really at this point we need to use our 1st rounder on the player on the draft board with the highest one player upside rather then trading down to grab two lesser players

only reason i'm ok with trading down if there is no clear cut guy on the board but there are many who are on the same or similar tier. having two of those increases ones chances to finding that diamond in the rough.

if the likes of roy, kylington, white, harkins, kocnecy are still on the board, i'm against trading down.

 

[Frk It]

only reason i'm ok with trading down if there is no clear cut guy on the board but there are many who are on the same or similar tier. having two of those increases ones chances to finding that diamond in the rough.

if the likes of roy, kylington, white, harkins, kocnecy are still on the board, i'm against trading down.

Why Harkins?

 

[InjuredChoker]

Why Harkins?

why not? sheahan, larkin and harkins down the middle could be quite solid group. all good two way players who have skill and are hard to play against.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Our bust rate on first rounders is pretty well established. If we really believe first round talent is the most likely to become long-term NHL talent there has been very little since 1992 to make that case.

1992: Curtis Bowen 0 NHL games
1993: Anders Eriksson 500 NHL games, used to acquire Chris Chelios
1994: Yan Golubovsky 50 NHL games
1995: Maxim Kuznetsov 100 NHL games
1996: Jesse Wallin 50 NHL games
1998: Jiri Fischer
2000: Niklas Kronwall
2005: Jakub Kindl: 200 NHL games, cannot stick in the lineup
2007: Brendan Smith: 200 NHL games, cannot stick in the lineup
2008: Thomas McCollum: 3 NHL games, full on bust
2010: Riley Sheahan: 100 NHL games, 3rd line center

It's too early to say anything about Mantha or Larkin. So basically 7 out of 11 are basically busts or fringe NHL'ers. That's a crappy rate, far worse than our rate for 2nd rounders.

1992: Darren McCarty
1993: Jon Coleman 0 NHL games
1994: Mathieu Dandenaut 800 NHL games
1995: Philippe Audet 4 NHL games
1996: Aren Miller 0 NHL games
1997: Yuri Butsayev 100 NHL games
1998: Ryan Barnes 2 NHL games
1998: Tomek Valtonen 0 NHL games
2000: Tomas Kopecky 500 NHL games
2001: Igor Grigorenko
2002: Jiri Hudler 600 NHL games
2002: Tomas Fleischmann 500 NHL games
2003: Jimmy Howard 300 NHL games
2005: Justin Abdelkader 400 NHL games
2006: Cory Emmerton 100 NHL games, out of the league
2006: Shawn Matthias 400 NHL games
2006: Dick Axelsson bustapalooza
2009: Landon Ferraro too soon to say
2009: Tomas Tatar
2010: Calle Jarnkrok 100 NHL games
2011: Tomas Jurco 100 NHL games
2011: Xavier Ouellet too soon to say
2011: Ryan Sproul looking like a full on bust at this point
2012: Martin Frk looking like a full on bust at this point

For those playing along at home that's 11 legit NHL'ers, 10 guys who either are or look like full on busts, and 3 guys who either had their career derailed by injury (Grigorenko) or it's simply too soon to say (Ferraro, Ouellet). You can easily make the case that that latter two are trending more towards being legit NHL'ers but let's slow our roll. That's looking like about a 50/50 success rate with second rounders.

Then you add in the fact we typically get an extra pick in the 2nd round and it seems like a no brainer. So as critical as I have been about Ken Holland over the past 5 or so years I would not complain one bit if he trades the #19 pick for two 2nd round picks. The second round really seems to be our sweet spot and it fits with the organizations overall philosophy of drafting and developing.

 

[InjuredChoker]

i have no idea how our rate of success in 1st or 2nd round picks from 90s or early 00s is relevant.

or even pre-2014 since there has been change in guys who run the draft since then.

 

[Frk It]

why not? sheahan, larkin and harkins down the middle could be quite solid group. all good two way players who have skill and are hard to play against.

I'd just as rather move back and pick up a pick and take someone like Eriksson Ek, or Chlapik.

Don't think Harkins is a "must draft " at 19, like I do the other guys you listed.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I'd just as rather move back and pick up a pick and take someone like Eriksson Ek, or Chlapik.

Don't think Harkins is a "must draft " at 19, like I do the other guys you listed.

would be surprised if he's even available at 19. someone may go full horvat on him.

 

[FabricDetails]

I don't know if this has ever been tossed around before but just out of curiosity, how far out into the future can teams trade picks?

I daydreamed about this during work one day:
-A team makes a trade for another team's first round pick 2 or 3 years from now.
-The team that trades their first round pick thinks they're on the verge of something significant or special so they're willing to make the gamble.
-Said team then crashes and burns into lottery territory after 2 or 3 years of trying to be good or great.
-The other team that acquired the pick now has a potential franchise talent on their hands.

I mean, obviously if you're a perpetually bottom feeding organization like Edmonton then they're not going to get rid of first round picks but let's say the team is Buffalo years ago when they still had Miller, Roy, etc. and they were a relatively stable playoff team looking to fight their way into the next echelon. To them it might seem like a decent gamble to trade their first round pick that's 3 years into the future for something that can help them now.

I don't recall seeing this happening a lot and I'm not sure if it's because teams can't do such a thing or because no one wants to take that risk at all.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I don't know if this has ever been tossed around before but just out of curiosity, how far out into the future can teams trade picks?

I daydreamed about this during work one day:
-A team makes a trade for another team's first round pick 2 or 3 years from now.
-The team that trades their first round pick thinks they're on the verge of something significant or special so they're willing to make the gamble.
-Said team then crashes and burns into lottery territory after 2 or 3 years of trying to be good or great.
-The other team that acquired the pick now has a potential franchise talent on their hands.

I mean, obviously if you're a perpetually bottom feeding organization like Edmonton then they're not going to get rid of first round picks but let's say the team is Buffalo years ago when they still had Miller, Roy, etc. and they were a relatively stable playoff team looking to fight their way into the next echelon. To them it might seem like a decent gamble to trade their first round pick that's 3 years into the future for something that can help them now.

I don't recall seeing this happening a lot and I'm not sure if it's because teams can't do such a thing or because no one wants to take that risk at all.

Not sure about the extended time frame. The Maple Leafs traded their first round pick for Phil Kessel. That ended up being the #2 pick in the NHL draft and the Boston Bruins selected Tyler Seguin, who is an 80 point NHL center. Meanwhile the Leafs are trying to trade Kessel and Dion Phaneuf.

 

[Tatar]

I'd just as rather move back and pick up a pick and take someone like Eriksson Ek, or Chlapik.

Don't think Harkins is a "must draft " at 19, like I do the other guys you listed.

Eriksson Ek should be gone by 20. His stock is skyrocketing. As nice as it would be to pick him, we really need a franchise defenseman. I'm all for trading down and getting more picks, but with the likes of Z,Dats, and Kronner leaving, we need quality not quantity. I'm really hoping J. Roy is still on the board when we pick.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Norris & Art Ross Winners draft position

Norris:
14: 54
13: 43
12: 15
11: 53
10: 54
09: 53
08: 53
07: 53
06: 53
04: 3


Art Ross:
15: 129
14: 1
13: undrafted
12: 2
11: 2
10: 3
09: 2
08: 1
07: 1
06: 1
04: undrafted

So a top 10 pick hasn’t won the Norris in 11 years. Whereas a top 3 pick has won 8 of the last 11 Art Ross trophies.

But you know, according to Jimmy D, we can't draft good defenseman where we pick... Though yes, admittedly Lidstrom's dominance skews the numbers a bit.

Before this season and Jamie Benn's last second win.... the lowest drafted Art Ross winner was 22 and that was Bryan Trottier (granted MSL is undrafted). While the Norris is full of second and third rounders. and not just Lidstrom, but actually a ton of guys.

The fact is defense develop later than forwards. Plenty of teams have found outstanding defencemen who have some great skills and some flaws, and by giving them time to work on those flaws.

Also there was some statistical work done on defencemen by MC79 before he closed his blog to work for the Oilers. Basically the moral of the story was draft a defenceman who scores over .5 PPG in junior, don't look for defensive d who can't score. Take those that have puck skills and develop them and youve got a better chance of getting an NHLer. This is even true of stay at home guys. The NHL is so fast, that simple things like getting away from a forechecker or making a first pass require a huge amount of skill, and that skill might not be points at the NHL level, but it is in junior.

 

[snailderby]

Before this season and Jamie Benn's last second win.... the lowest drafted Art Ross winner was 22 and that was Bryan Trottier (granted MSL is undrafted). While the Norris is full of second and third rounders. and not just Lidstrom, but actually a ton of guys.

The fact is defense develop later than forwards. Plenty of teams have found outstanding defencemen who have some great skills and some flaws, and by giving them time to work on those flaws.

Also there was some statistical work done on defencemen by MC79 before he closed his blog to work for the Oilers. Basically the moral of the story was draft a defenceman who scores over .5 PPG in junior, don't look for defensive d who can't score. Take those that have puck skills and develop them and youve got a better chance of getting an NHLer. This is even true of stay at home guys. The NHL is so fast, that simple things like getting away from a forechecker or making a first pass require a huge amount of skill, and that skill might not be points at the NHL level, but it is in junior.

Are you referring to this article http://thats-offside.blogspot.com/2013/06/defense-defensemen-and-draft.html?

 

[BStinson]

Are you referring to this article http://thats-offside.blogspot.com/2013/06/defense-defensemen-and-draft.html?

That link doesn't go anywhere

 

[SoupNazi]

That link doesn't go anywhere

Try it now. It should be fixed.

 

[snailderby]

Try it now. It should be fixed.

Thanks, SoupNazi!

 

[Frk It]

Did not realize that Gabriel Carlsson is the #2 ranked European skater by Central Scouting.

Is he a viable option at #19? Have not seen him mentioned much here.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Did not realize that Gabriel Carlsson is the #2 ranked European skater by Central Scouting.

Is he a viable option at #19? Have not seen him mentioned much here.

I have heard him described as the Swedish Carlo FWIW. I took this to mean that he was much better defensively than offensively.

 

[Frk It]

I have heard him described as the Swedish Carlo FWIW. I took this to mean that he was much better defensively than offensively.

Just read some more on him, sounds a lot like Dekeyser tbh.

 

[BStinson]

Did not realize that Gabriel Carlsson is the #2 ranked European skater by Central Scouting.

Is he a viable option at #19? Have not seen him mentioned much here.

More of a second rounder from what i've read on scouting reports. Hasn't produce like a first rounder imo but played well at Worlds.

 

[DRW204]

what are the chances of detroit moving back 2 picks (Buffalo picks 21 and is apparently looking to move up) again? Get a 2nd round pick possibly. Buff has 31 an 51

 

[SirloinUB]

what are the chances of detroit moving back 2 picks (Buffalo picks 21 and is apparently looking to move up) again? Get a 2nd round pick possibly. Buff has 31 an 51

Im not looking to move down, but if Buffalo offered 21 and 31 for 19 I'd do it. I think that's a no brainer though.


Afterthought: If someone like Provorov has a Teravainen-esque fall, I stay put. But that's probably the only type of situation that Buffalo offers 31 to move up 2 spots

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Im not looking to move down, but if Buffalo offered 21 and 31 for 19 I'd do it. I think that's a no brainer though.


Afterthought: If someone like Provorov has a Teravainen-esque fall, I stay put. But that's probably the only type of situation that Buffalo offers 31 to move up 2 spots

Absent a big faller, do you really expect to get a materially better prospect at 19 vs. 21?

I agree though that 19 alone will not fetch 21 and 31.

 

[Electric Eric]

Absent a big faller, do you really expect to get a materially better prospect at 19 vs. 21?

I agree though that 19 alone will not fetch 21 and 31.

It all really depends on whos remaining on the board.

I've also always wondered about trading back, do teams generally share who they plan on picking? I can't imagine they do, like when we traded back 2 years ago did we know no other team was going to pick Mantha? Or did we just gamble that he was still going to be there.

 

[Frk It]

what are the chances of detroit moving back 2 picks (Buffalo picks 21 and is apparently looking to move up) again? Get a 2nd round pick possibly. Buff has 31 an 51

Assuming Kylington, Roy, Chabot, (couple others I like) are gone, then I would definitely be cool with picking up pick 51 and having 21 and 51.

We are definitely not getting 21 and 31 for moving back 2 spots.

 

[Frk It]

It all really depends on whos remaining on the board.

I've also always wondered about trading back, do teams generally share who they plan on picking? I can't imagine they do, like when we traded back 2 years ago did we know no other team was going to pick Mantha? Or did we just gamble that he was still going to be there.

I don't think they share who they are going to take themselves, but I think they have a really good idea of who others will take, which is why they decided to trade down.