2015 NHL Draft Thread Full of Hope and Optimism

[tfong]

looking at draft picks between 15-30 from 07-10.

7 (hayes, rundblad, holland, colborne, cole, nash, smith) made it as regular in year 5 or later. rest made it sooner, have yet to make it or are busts. maybe one could add likes of despres (but he was mishandled by pens badly), erixon.

less than 11% of the picks. or 14% if we count despres and erixon.

and that list of players isn't impressive. they make it sooner than year 5 or they aren't good.

Colborne almost busted before Calgary saved him. Rundblad is looking like a bust.

Erixon got traded, waived and claimed and has struggled to establish himself as a regular.

 

[InjuredChoker]

So Ouellet, Sproul, Marchenko were drafted in 2011. Do you think if they have not established a role by this upcoming season that will spell the end?

What are your thoughts on them?

Should we change our development plan, or do we just need to draft better guys?

none of those were 1st rounders. and for a reason. sproul and marchenko were projects.

 

[Frk It]

none of those were 1st rounders. and for a reason. sproul and marchenko were projects.

Oh, you were just talking about 1st rounders. Gotcha.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Jesper Lindgren, perhaps.

Yes, yes and yes. I think he is exactly the type of guy we should be targeting with our second pick. Lots of upside but will take time to mature physically. I honestly have no idea where he is going to go in this draft.

Anyone know who the most "pro ready" defenseman is that we could realsitcally draft at 19?

Our defense sucks, and I don't want to wait. Thinking of guys like Mueller or Maatta, that were taken 18-25 and were able to play within 1 year.

I think you are playing with fire with this approach and will find yourself complaining of having another 3-5 defensemen a couple of years from now. I think we need to focus on upside, even if it requires that we wait a bit longer. No one we draft this year is going to fix the current issues with the team. Roy, Klington and Chabot are all still several years away.

I think Andersson is a sleeper that could play. He is already 200+ lbs and has filled out his frame. The only thing I question is whether or not his skating is ready for the NHL.

I'm pretty keen on Rasmus Andersson if one hasn't noticed heh.

If you trade up I think Povorov is ready to play in a bottom pairing role. Watched the Wheat kings in the playoffs and he is really solid with offense to spare.

Eh, you can have him if you want to take him early. He is a very heavy skater with a short stride who is known for making bad decisions in the defensive zone with the puck. With his physical development I think he should be better than he is. Note that he reads like a Zidlicky. I can think of four or five OHL defensemen I would prefer. Now if he is around in the fourth round I would certainly spend a pick on him. He just isn't my type of player.

 

[detredWINgs]

I think you are playing with fire with this approach and will find yourself complaining of having another 3-5 defensemen a couple of years from now. I think we need to focus on upside, even if it requires that we wait a bit longer. No one we draft this year is going to fix the current issues with the team. Roy, Klington and Chabot are all still several years away.

Drafting 18 year olds is practically by definition "playing with fire." The only thing taking guys who look more NHL ready does is diversify your approach. We're already complaining about defenseman taking too long to develop as it stands. Whether these guys really are ready is another thing altogether but it may be time to start using this approach more often. Gone are the days where we needed prospects who could ripen, due to our veteran depth. We need defense talent ASAP.

Also, you could easily argue that drafting for upside is a much, much riskier approach. One in hand is worth two in the bush...

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Drafting 18 year olds is practically by definition "playing with fire." The only thing taking guys who look more NHL ready does is diversify your approach. We're already complaining about defenseman taking too long to develop as it stands. Whether these guys really are ready is another thing altogether but it may be time to start using this approach more often. Gone are the days where we needed prospects who could ripen, due to our veteran depth. We need defense talent ASAP.

Also, you could easily argue that drafting for upside is a much, much riskier approach. One in hand is worth two in the bush...

Yes, we need defensive talent ASAP, but what we really need is top-pairing defensive talent ASAP. We have plenty of 3-7 guys. I am not interested in pro-ready defensemen that mirror Marchenko and XO. Those guys are ready to come online, are NHL ready in my opinion and relatively young. We need players who project to be better (especially offensively) than those two.

If you are looking for the elusive future #1 defensemen in the draft, you need to focus more on upside and pure skill and less on physical maturity and defensive responsibility (which is what we are really talking about when we are talking about being pro-ready at the 19 spot).

 

[Vatican Roulette]

Jesper Lindgren, perhaps.

I have a hunch that he's the guy the Wings pick in the 1st round.

Gut feeling I guess.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

none of those were 1st rounders. and for a reason. sproul and marchenko were projects.

Technically Ouellet is a 1st rounder because we traded a 1st for him. And I think we drafted him 1st in that draft

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Wonder if Holland trades down to secure an extra draft pick.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Wonder if Holland trades down to secure an extra draft pick.

i wouldn't mind it unless someone like kylington, roy, white, harkins or kocnecy were available at #19. there are lot of players i like in the second round so getting one would be nice. and outside of those 5 guys, i think it's fairly even group until around 30-35.

actually, i'd prefer to trade down if none of those is there. maybe a kid like zboril could also be added to the list.

 

[Anchor Town*]

Technically Ouellet is a 1st rounder because we traded a 1st for him. And I think we drafted him 1st in that draft

That's not how it works.

 

[Anchor Town*]

Wings shouldn't trade down this year. They already have a glut of prospects. Need to focus more on quality not quantity at this point

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Wings shouldn't trade down this year. They already have a glut of prospects. Need to focus more on quality not quantity at this point

Agreed. There's a nice crop of players available at 19, too.

 

[nik jr]

Norris & Art Ross Winners draft position

Norris:
14: 54
13: 43
12: 15
11: 53
10: 54
09: 53
08: 53
07: 53
06: 53
04: 3


Art Ross:
15: 129
14: 1
13: undrafted
12: 2
11: 2
10: 3
09: 2
08: 1
07: 1
06: 1
04: undrafted

So a top 10 pick hasn’t won the Norris in 11 years. Whereas a top 3 pick has won 8 of the last 11 Art Ross trophies.

But you know, according to Jimmy D, we can't draft good defenseman where we pick... Though yes, admittedly Lidstrom's dominance skews the numbers a bit.

potvin: 1
robinson: 20 (only played his last junior season at D; previously F)
bourque: 8
chelios: 40
coffey: 6
langway: 36
leetch: 9
pronger: 2
macinnis: 15
niedermayer: 3
blake: 70
wilson: 6
carlyle: 30

murphy: 4
stevens: 5
zubov: 85
desjardins: 38
d hatcher: 8

weber: 49
suter: 7
doughty: 2
gonchar: 14

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Wings shouldn't trade down this year. They already have a glut of prospects. Need to focus more on quality not quantity at this point

Define glut. I think we have fewer legit prospects than we have had in a while.

 

[AD1066]

Norris & Art Ross Winners draft position

...

Thanks, I geeked out a bit and pulled the numbers on every player drafted in the year 2000 or later.

My assumption was that while points aren't the be-all and end-all of defensemen, points correlate well with #1D duties. Top pairing defensemen are usually the ones on the 1st PP and playing the most icetime at ES.

Since the year 2000, forwards drafted in the top ten picks, were responsible for 31% of all points accumulated by forwards in the years since. Likewise forwards drafted in the 1st round were responsible for 56% of aggregate points.

For defensemen, those taken with a top 10 pick were only responsible for 17.7% of points by defensemen in that same timeframe. Those taken 11-20 were at 14.2%, so there wasn't a significant drop-off on average. First round, aggregate 41%.

So both within the first round (top 10 vs. 11-20 vs. 21-30), and the draft as a whole, defensemen taken with later picks are more likely to contribute relative to forwards drafted in similar positions.

I'm kind of off topic for the thread, but wanted to share.

 

[Frk It]

Wings shouldn't trade down this year. They already have a glut of prospects. Need to focus more on quality not quantity at this point

It all depends on how it shakes out, though. If Roy, Kylington, and Chabot are gone I'm all for trading down a little. I mean, I don't know if it would be possible again, but if we could move back just 2-3 spots and pick up a 2nd like we did in '13 I think that would be great.

 

[Run the Jewels]

It all depends on how it shakes out, though. If Roy, Kylington, and Chabot are gone I'm all for trading down a little. I mean, I don't know if it would be possible again, but if we could move back just 2-3 spots and pick up a 2nd like we did in '13 I think that would be great.

If this draft is really as deep as has been suggested and there isn't a guy they love at 19 then I can see trading the first for two picks. Ideally it would be two second rounders from either Columbus or Calgary who both have multiple second round picks. Hell, I'd be willing to trade someone like Quincey or Helm and our 3rd round pick (#73) to try to gain another 2nd round pick.

Basically I'd try to get as many second rounders as possible and blow them all on d-men and hope one turns into a really good NHL'er. We've had plenty of first round picks in the back half of the round and they have largely been wasted picks. Our sweet spot seems to be in the second round, where we've drafted Jurco, Jarnkrok, Ouellet, Ferraro, Tatar, Mathias, Abdelkader, Howard, Hudler and Fleischmann.

 

[Frk It]

If this draft is really as deep as has been suggested and there isn't a guy they love at 19 then I can see trading the first for two picks. Ideally it would be two second rounders from either Columbus or Calgary who both have multiple second round picks. Hell, I'd be willing to trade someone like Quincey or Helm and our 3rd round pick (#73) to try to gain another 2nd round pick.

Basically I'd try to get as many second rounders as possible and blow them all on d-men and hope one turns into a really good NHL'er. We've had plenty of first round picks in the back half of the round and they have largely been wasted picks. Our sweet spot seems to be in the second round, where we've drafted Jurco, Jarnkrok, Ouellet, Ferraro, Tatar, Mathias, Abdelkader, Howard, Hudler and Fleischmann.

Right, I agree.

The last time we traded down and took 2 defesnseman in the 2nd round we got Ouellet and Sproul. Now are either guys going to be top pairing guys? Probably not.

But let's look at what our alternative would have been if we kept our pick that year. In between the pick we traded (#24) and the one we used to get Ouellet (#48), the folowing defenseman were taken: Stuart Percy, David Musil, Scott Mayfield, Adam Clendening, Joel Edmundson. Would you rather have any of those guys over both Ouellet and Sproul? I would not. So let's actually see who's still left at #19 before we write off trading back.

 

[joe89]

Define glut. I think we have fewer legit prospects than we have had in a while.

Yeah I agree. Also remember the guys we draft this year has at least one more year left in junior, and then another three years where they're on an entry level deal. Europeans even longer depending on when we sign them. There's no glut to be taken into consideration here, Griffins signed multiple free agent forwards to fill vacant spots this season, while on defense most are already in the age span of 21-23. The draft is not a short term fix, ever, unless you pick really high.

 

[Run the Jewels]

But let's look at what our alternative would have been if we kept our pick that year. In between the pick we traded (#24) and the one we used to get Ouellet (#48), the folowing defenseman were taken: Stuart Percy, David Musil, Scott Mayfield, Adam Clendening, Joel Edmundson. Would you rather have any of those guys over both Ouellet and Sproul? I would not. So let's actually see who's still left at #19 before we write off trading back.

Yeah, Ouellet may never be more than a middle pairing NHL d-man but at least he's another 2nd rounder that will end up having a long NHL career. We've had a few misses like Cory Emmerton and possibly Ryan Sproul who may never be regulars in the NHL but by and large our hit rate on 2nd rounders has been pretty solid.

 

[Boomhower]

Wonder if Holland trades down to secure an extra draft pick.

It wouldn't be a terrible idea.

This draft is deep and very interesting Defense prospects like Vande Sompel and Matt Spencer will be available if we can get a 2nd rounder.
I'm not at all convinced that they aren't of the same caliber as some of the D men being talked about in the 19 range.

 

[detredWINgs]

Yes, we need defensive talent ASAP, but what we really need is top-pairing defensive talent ASAP. We have plenty of 3-7 guys. I am not interested in pro-ready defensemen that mirror Marchenko and XO. Those guys are ready to come online, are NHL ready in my opinion and relatively young. We need players who project to be better (especially offensively) than those two.

If you are looking for the elusive future #1 defensemen in the draft, you need to focus more on upside and pure skill and less on physical maturity and defensive responsibility (which is what we are really talking about when we are talking about being pro-ready at the 19 spot).

First of all, I completely disagree that being "pro-ready" equates to being physically mature and defensively responsible. That is one interpretation, but thats obviously not what we're talking about here with high picks. IMO, pro-ready is founded on sound decision-making and good vision, which can absolutely equate to being pro-ready without being a man-child like Ekblad and fully composed in your own zone. No one is talking about drafting a Jared Cowen type just because he can hit the NHL ice at 19.

There isn't some mutual exclusion here, though. You're acting as though its (a) guys who aren't NHL ready, take 5 years to develop, and end up being 3-7 players versus (b) NHL ready guys who have a lower ceiling - as predicted at the age of 18 - and simply end up being 3-7 players sooner.

Obviously, you hope that a guy who is pro-ready at 18 or 19 is going to top out as something more than a 3-7 guy. Maybe not a number 1, but rather a Dekeyser-like player. Thats the trade off. Thats, IMO, what you're eschewing when you take a guy who is "pro-ready" versus a guy with upside. You're accepting the fact that he might not ever be a 50 point guy with Subban-like flash but will much sooner be able to play composed hockey in his own end and, at his peak, could break 40 points.

 

[Chex LeMeneux]

It all depends on how it shakes out, though. If Roy, Kylington, and Chabot are gone I'm all for trading down a little. I mean, I don't know if it would be possible again, but if we could move back just 2-3 spots and pick up a 2nd like we did in '13 I think that would be great.

That's what I'm hoping for too. Hopefully there's still someone that Buffalo really wants at 19 so we could trade back and pick up the two picks from New York, the 21st and 51st picks I believe. That would be ideal. Chances are, one of the d-men we're all talking about will still be around at 21.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

does detroit at this point need prospect depth or prospect quality?

i can appreciate the argument the more depth you have the better odds of finding a high end elite guy but really at this point we need to use our 1st rounder on the player on the draft board with the highest one player upside rather then trading down to grab two lesser players