2014 Draft Thread Part Two

[AirBriere48]

I want Samson. Unfortunately, so does I think everyone but maybe the Oilers.

Right. Our best bet is if the standings finish with us in 30th and EDM in 29th. That way even if they win the lottery, we (presumably) would still get Reinhart.

On the other hand, even if the standings do end up like that, there is still a 56.2% chance that someone 3-14 wins the lottery.

Scary to think about.

 

[haseoke39]

Right. Our best bet is if the standings finish with us in 30th and EDM in 29th. That way even if they win the lottery, we (presumably) would still get Reinhart.

On the other hand, even if the standings do end up like that, there is still a 56.2% chance that someone 3-14 wins the lottery.

Scary to think about.

Yeah, I would actually have to say the odds are better than even that we end up with Ekblad (presuming we go BPA).

 

[Zip15]

Right. Our best bet is if the standings finish with us in 30th and EDM in 29th. That way even if they win the lottery, we (presumably) would still get Reinhart.

On the other hand, even if the standings do end up like that, there is still a 56.2% chance that someone 3-14 wins the lottery.

Scary to think about.

Currently, Florida would draft #4 based on winning percentage. I think you would have to throw their 10.7% behind Ekblad. With Barkov and Bjugstad already in place down the middle, and Gudbranson not exactly looking like a franchise defenseman, I think they'd take the blueline cornerstone in Ekblad. So, even assuming every team other than Florida and Edmonton would pick Reinhart #1, we'd have a 54.5% chance at Reinhart.

Then the Devils would draft 9th, but they forfeit their pick so their 2.7% may as well be added to us, giving us over a 57% chance at Reinhart.

 

[ottsabrefan]

I expect Reinhart to be the universal #1.... it's a "click" game, you can't have the same #1/top 3 for the entire year.

I wouldn't get your hopes up. I see Bennett closing the gap on the top 2 fast and pushing Reinhart for 1st. I'm sure the fact that Bennett is putting up equivalent numbers this year, a year earlier than Reinhart did, will help in that drive.

Both have advantages that the other can't touch. Reinhart is better at using his teammates and slowing the game down. Bennett is a much better skating, who is more of an in your face player. Both have off the charts intangibles. I'm not really sure how you can see one as so clearly above the other at this point.

 

[Ethan Edwards]

Ekblad was a -6 with zero points. OUCH!

He has a real rough go against Bennett this year.

(#93 Bennett vs #5 Ekblad) ... Ekblad's on the ice for seven GA in this one, a truly forgettable performance, even if two were ENG; Bennett's the second star with his three assists.

Ouch is right. I'm not a HUGE stats guy because they can be incredibly misleading without proper context, especially in juniors, and this is only one game, but trying to look away from that stat line is like trying to look away from a car wreck on the side of the road. There are just too many flashing blue lights.

 

[couture23]

Can we call him Samson if we draft him? Sounds so much cooler.

 

[Jame]

I wouldn't get your hopes up. I see Bennett closing the gap on the top 2 fast and pushing Reinhart for 1st. I'm sure the fact that Bennett is putting up equivalent numbers this year, a year earlier than Reinhart did, will help in that drive.

Both have advantages that the other can't touch. Reinhart is better at using his teammates and slowing the game down. Bennett is a much better skating, who is more of an in your face player. Both have off the charts intangibles. I'm not really sure how you can see one as so clearly above the other at this point.

I agree with those labels/assessments... for me, one of them projects as a sure thing (a core, foundation building piece) even if the others offensive ceiling is higher.

If Reinhart is gone, we draft Bennett

 

[1972]

It took me longer then some, but I am starting to buy into the Sam Bennett hype as the potential top pick. The sky is the limit for this kid, he can score, make plays, plays both ends and has a compete level as high as anyone. I cannot wait to see him live again on the 20th.

Something to keep in mind, Reinhart is on a team that probably isnt going to do much in the playoffs and is too old for the U-18s so his season could be over by early April. Bennett's will be at the U-18s if Kingston gets eliminated early. Could help a player like him.

 

[MagnumForce2]

I guess one of my biggest concerns about the draft has been, what if we finish 30th but the team that wins the lottery takes Reinhart. I guess Bennett's emergence has made that scenario not seem as bad now. Not that it matters much but Bennett is about 7 1/2 months younger than Reinhart.

 

[Zman5778]

If Reinhart is gone, we draft Bennett

I know this was a month or so ago....but if we're picking #2 (which right now appears to be the worst-case).....based on Devine's interview, I think it'll be Samson or Ekblad.....

 

[BananaSquad]

I know this was a month or so ago....but if we're picking #2 (which right now appears to be the worst-case).....based on Devine's interview, I think it'll be Samson or Ekblad.....

Doest matter what Devine wants. Murray is the guy now.

 

[1972]

I agree with those labels/assessments... for me, one of them projects as a sure thing (a core, foundation building piece) even if the others offensive ceiling is higher.

If Reinhart is gone, we draft Bennett

My hope is they both have a huge second half and become the clear cut 1/2 prospects. Not because I don't like Ekblad, but I hate the idea of using a top 2 pick on a D.

 

[Zip15]

Doest matter what Devine wants. Murray is the guy now.

So you don't think he'd pick the guy that got 8 of 10 votes as the #1 prospect in McKenzie's most rankings? I do. I, too, think it's Reinhart or Ekblad, but I also think they're a cut above.

 

[B U F F A L O]

Doest matter what Devine wants. Murray is the guy now.

This reminds me of Burkes quote in the Olympic article...

paraphrasing "I wanted to draft Jack Johnson but my scouts wanted Bobby Ryan and I had to battle them over it. We all know who won."

I think Bobby Ryan was the right pick.

I'm not comparing Ekblad to Johnson and Bennett to Ryan, just noting the similarities of that possible situation.

 

[BananaSquad]

So you don't think he'd pick the guy that got 8 of 10 votes as the #1 prospect in McKenzie's most rankings? I do. I, too, think it's Reinhart or Ekblad, but I also think they're a cut above.

No I don't. Tell me where was Seth Jones ranked last year? Sabres take Reinhart or Bennett before Ekblad.

 

[BananaSquad]

This reminds me of Burkes quote in the Olympic article...

paraphrasing "I wanted to draft Jack Johnson but my scouts wanted Bobby Ryan and I had to battle them over it. We all know who won."

I think Bobby Ryan was the right pick.

I'm not comparing Ekblad to Johnson and Bennett to Ryan, just noting the similarities of that possible situation.

IMO Reinhart, Bennett and Ekblad are so close that they are all interchangeable at whos number 1 in this draft.

Buffalo should have Reinhart and Bennett ranked ahead of Ekblad looking at what this team needs.

 

[Zip15]

No I don't. Tell me where was Seth Jones ranked last year? Sabres take Reinhart or Bennett before Ekblad.

If Reinhart is off the board at #1, I'll take that bet.

 

[BananaSquad]

If Reinhart is off the board at #1, I'll take that bet.

Whats the bet? haha. They should take Bennett IMO.

 

[jc17]

Whats the bet? haha. They should take Bennett IMO.

Agreed for 2 reasons:
1) The sabres need potential high scoring-elite forwards. Bennett is, and the fact that he's on a team where nobody else produces like him is huge.

2) IMO BPA does not exist in many cases. Even if Ekblad is the "BPA", it doesn't mean he is the best player or will be the best in the NHL. There isn't a great history of recent highly selected defensmen, while forwards seem to be a bit more predictable.

 

[tsujimoto74]

IMO Reinhart, Bennett and Ekblad are so close that they are all interchangeable at whos number 1 in this draft.

Buffalo should have Reinhart and Bennett ranked ahead of Ekblad looking at what this team needs.

Agree. Ekblad's a great prospect, but I'd be a bit disappointed if that was our consolation prize for this season. I think we've clearly got the pieces in place to build a good defensive core, and we especially don't need more RH defenders (Pysyk, Risto, and Myers are a plenty capable, talented, and diverse group).

 

[ottsabrefan]

So you don't think he'd pick the guy that got 8 of 10 votes as the #1 prospect in McKenzie's most rankings? I do. I, too, think it's Reinhart or Ekblad, but I also think they're a cut above.

I agree with your logic. I just don't agree with what's in bold (especially after seeing them play against one another - in the O).

 

[ottsabrefan]

Ritchie with 5 goals tonight in a losing effort. He also added one assist and got 2nd star. Gotta love the home teams in the OHL!

Bennett with number one star (four points). Now 3rd in league scoring.

 

[Zip15]

In many ways, Bennett's prospect status reminds me of Drouin's last year. I think this is the part of the season where many start trying to outsmart themselves. They're tired of hearing about the established top guys, and when another player enters the conversation, some start going overboard. I recall last year when some started wondering if Drouin would be drafted ahead of MacKinnon, and that he had a chance at #1. Fast forward one year and MacKinnon has a good shot at the Calder and Jones was called the most advanced 18 yo defenseman Poile has ever seen and he even entered the Team USA conversation.



"I stand here every year and say the same thing, it's best player available." -Tim Murray

If the Sabres have Ekblad ahead of Bennett on their board, they're picking him.

 

[Zip15]

I agree with your logic. I just don't agree with what's in bold (especially after seeing them play against one another - in the O).

Twice? If you want to rely on small sample sizes, where does the fact that Ekblad was Team Canada's best defenseman at the WJC in his draft year enter your analysis?

Reinhart
Ekblad

Bennett

Dal Colle
Draisaitl

That's how I've tiered the top-5.

 

[Paxon]

Twice? If you want to rely on small sample sizes, where does the fact that Ekblad was Team Canada's best defenseman at the WJC in his draft year enter your analysis?

Reinhart
Ekblad

Bennett

Dal Colle
Draisaitl

That's how I've tiered the top-5.

If these are tiers then they're about as small a devolution as tiers can have. Also I'd put Draisaitl ahead of Dal Colle but that's just splitting hairs. Dal Colle is the guy who concerns me most of that group.