2010 Census data released (UPD 2013)

[Melrose Munch]

This is why I dislike discussions which revolve solely around civic populations... in spite of Columbus now being twice the size of the city of Cleveland, Cleveland's MSA and CSA are both larger than the Columbus metro area and CSA to the tune of ~600,000 people. And while those number are deflating, it's at a much slower rate than the city itself and in boom times it's gains instead of losses. Ditto Cincinnati, whose metro area is larger by about 400,000 people. None of my friends from Cincinnati live in Cincinnati. Half of my friends from Chicago don't live in the city of Chicago. Metro areas are more important than city populations.

I won't quibble with the idea that Columbus was a stroke of genius by the NHL for all the reasons mentioned and then some (lack of civic rivalries making a Columbus team appealing to the entire state), but the reason many think of Columbus as a large college town is because it WAS one up until the late 1980's. Columbus artificially increased it's population by merging inner ring suburbs into the city proper for years which, combined with inward migration from rural areas, took the city to the top in Ohio very easily. That allowed the city to market itself to both people and businesses much better, hence the constant growth. It's a strategy cribbed from early 20th century Los Angeles.

Even now that that Columbus has the team they are still a no name city. It know as the place Ohio State plays.

 

[Melrose Munch]

Buffalo lost more percentage wise than Cleveland or Detroit.

 

[MayDay]

Buffalo lost more percentage wise than Cleveland or Detroit.

I thought I read that Detroit lost 25%.

Buffalo lost a lot less than that.

 

[Brodie]

Buffalo only lost 10%. That's significantly better than the 25% and 17% losses by Detroit and Cleveland.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

if Detroit lost a further 500,000 people, Plymouth and Canton would look radically different than they do today.

Let's just be clear on this: the biggest change to Metro Detroit in all of this isn't population loss, it's the rapid breakdown of the de facto segregation between whites in the suburbs and blacks in the city. Livonia and Warren, once the whitest cities in the country, are now sporting large black populations. We're entering a long overdue post-racial era in Southeastern Michigan, and that would totally change the game if things ever got as bad as MountainHawk suggested.

I don't know if that is necessarily true, there's a reason the sprawl is growing further into Macomb County and going more and more into Livingston County which I believe has been the fastest growing county in Michigan over the last decade. The movement is further out of the city and from the old suburbs into new developments. My hunch is that places like Warren aren't really post-racial, they are transitioning from suburbs into urban cities with the racial movements being along those lines.

Compare the school ratings in the southern part of Warren (Van Dyke, Fitzgerald or East Detroit districts) with further outer suburban ones in say Rochester Hills (Avondale, Rochester Community) or in Utica (Utica Community). South Warren's schools are becoming more similar to Detroit schools and less like to latter outer suburban districts. And that's a bad sign, poor public schools usually lead to a social downward spiral for an area.

 

[Melrose Munch]

I should have clarified. The Buffalo CSA lost more people that Detroit or Cleveland.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=74882225&postcount=488

 

[danishh]

ooh, someone ran the calculations!

(keep in mind that CSA/MSA boundaries could still change based on OMB stats, so dont consider this final).

I'll work on a chart including major league teams (maybe i'll even add the MLS).

for now, a fun link to play with: http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map

 

[Brodie]

yeah, I'd expect Washtenaw County would be added to the Detroit MSA for example

 

[Melrose Munch]

ooh, someone ran the calculations!

(keep in mind that CSA/MSA boundaries could still change based on OMB stats, so dont consider this final).

I'll work on a chart including major league teams (maybe i'll even add the MLS).

for now, a fun link to play with: http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map

Thank you very much!

The midwest looks sad.

 

[MayDay]

I should have clarified. The Buffalo CSA lost more people that Detroit or Cleveland.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=74882225&postcount=488

Meh.

-3.0% vs. -2.6% vs. -2.2%

Not much difference between any of them. Not a huge decline in any case.

 

[Grudy0]

Here's the other half of the equation: the television market data from Nielsen for 2010-2011

Rank|Market|TV Homes (mil)|NHL Teams
1|New York|7.52|Rangers - Islanders - Devils
2|Los Angeles|5.67|Kings - Ducks
3|Chicago|3.50|Blackhawks
4|Philadelphia|3.02|Flyers
5|Dallas/Ft.Worth|2.59|Stars
6|SanFran/Oakland/SanJose|2.52|Sharks
7|Boston|2.46|Bruins
8|Atlanta|2.41|Thrashers
9|Washington|2.39|Capitals
10|Houston|2.18|
11|Detroit|1.88|Red Wings
12|Phoenix|1.88|Coyotes
13|Seattle-Tacoma|1.87|
14|Tampa-St.Pete|1.80|Lightning
15|Minneapols-St.Paul|1.75|Wild
16|Miami-Ft.Laud|1.58|Panthers
17|Denver|1.57|Avalanche
18|Cleveland-Akron|1.53|
19|Orlando|1.45|
20|Sacto/Stockton/Modesto|1.41|
21|St.Louis|1.26|Blues
22|Portland|1.20|
23|Charlotte|1.17|
24|Pittsburgh|1.16|Penguins
25|Raleigh/Durham|1.13|Hurricanes
26|Baltimore|1.11|
27|Indianapolis|1.11|
28|SanDiego|1.09|
29|Nashville|1.04|Predators
30|Hartford|1.02|
31|KansasCity|.97|
32|SaltLake|.96|
33|Cincinnati|.92|
34|Columbus|.92|Blue Jackets
35|Milwaukee|.90|
36|Greenville,SC|.88|
37|San Antonio|.84|
38|West Palm Beach|.77|
39|Harrisburg/Lancaster|.75|
40|Birmingham|.75|
41|Grand Rapids|.74|
42|Las Vegas|.72|
43|Norfolk/Va.Beach|.72|
44|Austin|.71|
45|Oklahoma City|.70|
46|Albuquerque|.70|
47|Greensboro NC|.70|
48|Memphis|.69|
49|Jacksonville|.68|
50|Louisville|.67|
51|Buffalo|.64|Sabres

Remember, as Nielsen data goes, these are households, not population, but it should give a rather nice example regarding any "gaps" in coverage.

The Nielsen data basically assigns a multitude of counties to a given market; Phoenix is most of northern and central Arizona, while San Diego is only the single county that the city is in, and New Jersey is split between New York market and Philadelphia market.

 

[danishh]

post #6 updated. Have fun.

edit: grudy's chart seems to lean towards the same conclusions i had.


and before the wpg/hamilton/qc crowd gets here, this thread doesnt care about canada. As far as this thread is concerned canada doesnt exist. If you want to talk about 'hockey markets' vs 'non-hockey markets', limit it to the cities/states listed.

 

[Grudy0]

and before the wpg/hamilton/qc crowd gets here, this thread doesnt care about canada. As far as this thread is concerned canada doesnt exist. If you want to talk about 'hockey markets' vs 'non-hockey markets', limit it to the cities/states listed.

But the disturber in me wants to include Canada.

Here is another table. This one is from Television Bureau of Canada, page 14. This table uses populations of the TV markets, and interleaves the Canadian markets (which I've noted in blue):

N.AM|U.S.|CDN|Market|Pop. (000)
1|1|| New York|20,093
2|2||Los Angeles|17,036
3|3||Chicago|9,381
4|4|| Philadelphia|7,445
5|| 1 | Toronto-Hamilton |7,174
6|5||Dallas-Ft. Worth|6,786
7|6||San Francisco-Oak-San Jose|6,719
8|7||Atlanta|6,317
9|8||Boston (Manchester)|5,984
10|9||Washington, DC (Hagrstwn)|5,936
11|10||Houston|5,883
12|11||Phoenix (Prescott)|4,982
13|12||Detroit|4,758
14|| 2 | Montréal |4,618
15|13||Seattle-Tacoma|4,493
16|14||Minneapolis-St. Paul|4,283
17|15||Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)|4,178
18|16||Miami Ft. Lauderdale|4,104
19|17||Denver|3,839
20|18||Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto|3,838
21|19||Cleveland-Akron (Canton)|3,669
22|20||Orlando-Daytona Bch-Melbrn|3,561
23|| 3 | Vancouver |3,413
24|21||St. Louis|3,048
25|22||Portland, OR|2,994
26|23||San Diego|2,889
27|24||Charlotte|2,828
28|25||Salt Lake|2,827
29|26||Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle)|2,726
30|27||Baltimore|2,720
31|28||Indianapolis|2,704
32|29||Pittsburgh|2,663
33|30||Nashville|2,484
34|31||Hartford & New Haven|2,472
35|32||Kansas City|2,298
36|33||Cincinnati|2,261
37|34||San Antonio|2,259
38|35||Milwaukee|2,184
39|36||Columbus, OH|2,179
40|37||Greenvll-Spar-Ashevll-And|2,040
41|| 4 | Kitchener-London |1,940
42|38||Las Vegas|1,889
43|39||Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-b.Crk|1,879
44|40||Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York|1,820
45|41||West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce|1,820
46|42||Fresno-Visalia|1,818
47|43||Birmingham (Ann and Tusc)|1,764
48|44||Norfolk-Porstmth-Newpt Nws|1,761
49|45||Albuquerque-Santa Fe|1,747
50|46||Austin|1,743
51|47||Memphis|1,676
52|48||Jacksonville|1,674
53|49||Oklahoma City|1,662
54|50||Greensboro-H. Point-W.Salem|1,644
55|| 5 | Edmonton |1,627
56|51||New Orleans|1,613
57|52||Louisville|1,596
58|| 6 | Calgary |1,563
59|53||Providence-New Bedford|1,513
60|54||Buffalo|1,495
61|| 7 | Ottawa-Gatineau |1,415
62|55||Wilkes Barre-Scranton|1,401
63|56||Little Rock-Pine Bluff|1,346
64|57||Richmond-Petersburg|1,335
65|58||Mobile-Pensacola (Ft. Walt)|1,304
66|59||Albany-Schenectady-Troy|1,294
67|60||Tulsa|1,286
68|61||Knoxville|1,280
69|62||Honolulu|1,215
70|63||Lexington|1,179
71|64||Harlingen-Wslco-Brnsvl-McA|1,175
72|65||Charleston-Huntington|1,159
73|66||Ft. Myers-Naples|1,158
74|67||Tuscon (Sierra Vista)|1,143
75|68||Dayton|1,142
76|69||Wichita-Hutchinson|1,119
77|70||Flint-Saginaw-Bay City|1,113
78|71||Green Bay-Appleton|1,061
79|| 8 | Québec City |1,058
80|72||Roanoke-Lynchburg|1,047
81|73||Spokane|1,031
82|74||Des Moines-Ames|1,030
83|75||Toledo|1,011
84|76||Omaha|1,007
85|77||Springfield, MO|996
86|78||Rochester, NY|956
87|79||Columbia, SC|953
88|80||Shreveport|945
89|81||Portland-Auburn|942
90|| 9 | Winnipeg |961
91|82||Huntsville-Decatur (Flor)|937
92|83||Syracuse|924
93|84||El Paso (Las Cruces)|920
94|85||Paducah-C.Gird-Harbg-Mt VN|920
95|86||Madison|898
96|87||Champaign&Sprngfld-Decatur|891
97|88||Chattanooga|883
98|89||Waco-Temple-Bryan|875
99|90||Jackson, MS|852
100|91||South Bend-Elkhart|848
101|92||Colorado Springs-Pueblo|842
102|93||Baton Rouge|830
103|94||Cedar Rapids-Wtrlo-IWC&Dub|818
104|95||Savannah|797
105|96||Burlington-Plattsburgh|782
106|97||Tri-Cities, TN-VA|755
107|98||Charleston, SC|752
108|99||Ft. Smith-Fay-Springfld-Rgrs|749
109|| 10 | East Central Ontario |724
110|100||Davenport-R. Island-Moline|733
111|101||Myrtle Beach-Florence|692
112|102||Johnstown-Altoona-St Colge|692

Let the discussion commence!

 

[Dado]

Not sure how they get those numbers - Vancouver has barely 2M people, where'd they find the additional 1.5M? Are they including VanIsland and the northwest corner of Washington St?

 

[Grudy0]

I believe it is including Victoria/VanIsland. The only map I can find of Canadian Markets may not be TV markets (at the bottom of the page), but they are listed with Vancouver and Victoria together.

 

[Melrose Munch]

But the disturber in me wants to include Canada.

Here is another table. This one is from Television Bureau of Canada, page 14. This table uses populations of the TV markets, and interleaves the Canadian markets (which I've noted in blue):

N.AM|U.S.|CDN|Market|Pop. (000)
1|1|| New York|20,093
2|2||Los Angeles|17,036
3|3||Chicago|9,381
4|4|| Philadelphia|7,445
5|| 1 | Toronto-Hamilton |7,174
6|5||Dallas-Ft. Worth|6,786
7|6||San Francisco-Oak-San Jose|6,719
8|7||Atlanta|6,317
9|8||Boston (Manchester)|5,984
10|9||Washington, DC (Hagrstwn)|5,936
11|10||Houston|5,883
12|11||Phoenix (Prescott)|4,982
13|12||Detroit|4,758
14|| 2 | Montréal |4,618
15|13||Seattle-Tacoma|4,493
16|14||Minneapolis-St. Paul|4,283
17|15||Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)|4,178
18|16||Miami Ft. Lauderdale|4,104
19|17||Denver|3,839
20|18||Sacramnto-Stkton-Modesto|3,838
21|19||Cleveland-Akron (Canton)|3,669
22|20||Orlando-Daytona Bch-Melbrn|3,561
23|| 3 | Vancouver |3,413
24|21||St. Louis|3,048
25|22||Portland, OR|2,994
26|23||San Diego|2,889
27|24||Charlotte|2,828
28|25||Salt Lake|2,827
29|26||Raleigh-Durham (Fayetvlle)|2,726
30|27||Baltimore|2,720
31|28||Indianapolis|2,704
32|29||Pittsburgh|2,663
33|30||Nashville|2,484
34|31||Hartford & New Haven|2,472
35|32||Kansas City|2,298
36|33||Cincinnati|2,261
37|34||San Antonio|2,259
38|35||Milwaukee|2,184
39|36||Columbus, OH|2,179
40|37||Greenvll-Spar-Ashevll-And|2,040
41|| 4 | Kitchener-London |1,940
42|38||Las Vegas|1,889
43|39||Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo-b.Crk|1,879
44|40||Harrisburg-Lncstr-Leb-York|1,820
45|41||West Palm Beach-Ft. Pierce|1,820
46|42||Fresno-Visalia|1,818
47|43||Birmingham (Ann and Tusc)|1,764
48|44||Norfolk-Porstmth-Newpt Nws|1,761
49|45||Albuquerque-Santa Fe|1,747
50|46||Austin|1,743
51|47||Memphis|1,676
52|48||Jacksonville|1,674
53|49||Oklahoma City|1,662
54|50||Greensboro-H. Point-W.Salem|1,644
55|| 5 | Edmonton |1,627
56|51||New Orleans|1,613
57|52||Louisville|1,596
58|| 6 | Calgary |1,563
59|53||Providence-New Bedford|1,513
60|54||Buffalo|1,495
61|| 7 | Ottawa-Gatineau |1,415
62|55||Wilkes Barre-Scranton|1,401
63|56||Little Rock-Pine Bluff|1,346
64|57||Richmond-Petersburg|1,335
65|58||Mobile-Pensacola (Ft. Walt)|1,304
66|59||Albany-Schenectady-Troy|1,294
67|60||Tulsa|1,286
68|61||Knoxville|1,280
69|62||Honolulu|1,215
70|63||Lexington|1,179
71|64||Harlingen-Wslco-Brnsvl-McA|1,175
72|65||Charleston-Huntington|1,159
73|66||Ft. Myers-Naples|1,158
74|67||Tuscon (Sierra Vista)|1,143
75|68||Dayton|1,142
76|69||Wichita-Hutchinson|1,119
77|70||Flint-Saginaw-Bay City|1,113
78|71||Green Bay-Appleton|1,061
79|| 8 | Québec City |1,058
80|72||Roanoke-Lynchburg|1,047
81|73||Spokane|1,031
82|74||Des Moines-Ames|1,030
83|75||Toledo|1,011
84|76||Omaha|1,007
85|77||Springfield, MO|996
86|78||Rochester, NY|956
87|79||Columbia, SC|953
88|80||Shreveport|945
89|81||Portland-Auburn|942
90|| 9 | Winnipeg |961
91|82||Huntsville-Decatur (Flor)|937
92|83||Syracuse|924
93|84||El Paso (Las Cruces)|920
94|85||Paducah-C.Gird-Harbg-Mt VN|920
95|86||Madison|898
96|87||Champaign&Sprngfld-Decatur|891
97|88||Chattanooga|883
98|89||Waco-Temple-Bryan|875
99|90||Jackson, MS|852
100|91||South Bend-Elkhart|848
101|92||Colorado Springs-Pueblo|842
102|93||Baton Rouge|830
103|94||Cedar Rapids-Wtrlo-IWC&Dub|818
104|95||Savannah|797
105|96||Burlington-Plattsburgh|782
106|97||Tri-Cities, TN-VA|755
107|98||Charleston, SC|752
108|99||Ft. Smith-Fay-Springfld-Rgrs|749
109|| 10 | East Central Ontario |724
110|100||Davenport-R. Island-Moline|733
111|101||Myrtle Beach-Florence|692
112|102||Johnstown-Altoona-St Colge|692

Let the discussion commence!

Toronto has dropped 2 from number three in NA. I do not know whether that is bad or good.

 

[Hamilton Tigers]

Toronto has dropped 2 from number three in NA. I do not know whether that is bad or good.

Might you be confusing populations of TV markets with populations of CMAs?

 

[Melrose Munch]

Might you be confusing populations of TV markets with populations of CMAs?

I might. I thought Toronto-Hamilton was the third largest media market in NA. I didn't know we were behind philly.

 

[Moobles]

We likely have around 2.5 mil now, so not just barely anymore but media markets as measured in Canada are not the same as metropolitan areas. Probably includes parts of western Fraser Valley and Victoria as well.

Not sure how they get those numbers - Vancouver has barely 2M people, where'd they find the additional 1.5M? Are they including VanIsland and the northwest corner of Washington St?

 

[Seachd]

Nothing to do with hockey, but is anyone very familiar with finding data on the US Census site or their American FactFinder site? I'm having trouble finding some pretty simple information, and haven't been able to get any help so far.

 

[mucker*]

This US Census data is EXACTLY why I am against moving:

Phoenix
Atlanta
Florida


I am a demographer by trade, and I can tell you, when studying US Population trends, those markets are going to by 2050 be even more a part of the US economy.
This is where the people, the money, the importance has been headed since 1950 and each year it will become more and more of significance.

Yes, I know, they have not proven themselves as hockey towns, BUT the NHL is not junior hockey, it is hockey FOR profit, and the NHL CANNOT abandon these markets because this where the people and money are headed.

From a business standpoint, maybe short term moving to Winnipeg or Quebec looks nicer because they are true hockey towns, but long term, would you rather have a multi-national business, does it make sense to have one in Phoenix or Winnipeg?

50 years from now, when Phoenix is a bustling big market, the NHL will be happy they kept it there for the long haul.
This is not about hockey, it's about the future of profit ceilings.

 

[knorthern knight]

This US Census data is EXACTLY why I am against moving:

Phoenix
Atlanta
Florida

From a business standpoint, maybe short term moving to Winnipeg or Quebec looks nicer because they are true hockey towns

It's also known as cutting your losses.

50 years from now, when Phoenix is a bustling big market, the NHL will be happy they kept it there for the long haul.
This is not about hockey, it's about the future of profit ceilings.

The problem is that being ahead of your time can be just as bad as being behind. OK, so maybe in 50 years, hockey will flourish in the sunbelt. Before this season, the Phoenix Coyotes had lost 300 million dollars during their history (approx 20 million per year). The Atlanta Thrashers lost 130 million over the past 5 years (26 million per year). I'm sure there are other teams hemmoraging money. Are you seriously suggesting that the NHL dole out almost 50 or 60 million per year, for an indefinite period, in the hope of turning a profit down the road in Phoenix and Atlanta and Florida?

 

[danishh]

i was going to put this in the realignment thread, but though this was a better place to keep it on record.

1. Historical Movement of the mean center of the US population

2. Map of NHL teams in relation to that point. Lines have been drawn N-S and E-W over the current center.

notes:
- 12/23 US teams are in the northeast quadrant. 2 in the northwest quadrant, 5 in the southwest quadrant, and 4 in the southeast quadrant.
- How does that happen? Mainly because the mean center is being pulled away from the northeast by a few large cities on the west coast and in the south, despite most of everything in between being empty.


3. Timezones and their relationship with population, the NHL.

- In canada, based on population alone, mountain has one too many teams and est has one too little.
- In the USA, est has 2 extra teams at the expense of cst.

4. Population Density, the missing piece.

- based on the 2010 census numbers, this map shows how that population is distributed in the quadrants/timezones. You can literally draw a line down the middle and separate urbanized USA from non-urbanized USA. Because hockey is a gate driven league, and because it relies more on local tv revenues more than national revenues, the logical thing to do is set up in the urbanized areas.

5/6. teams/tz on distro map. FYI.

 

[mucker*]

Awesome maps!
Are you a Geographer?

You should post the pop dis map next time someone complains about EST teams being grouped together lol.

 

[danishh]

Awesome maps!
Are you a Geographer?

You should post the pop dis map next time someone complains about EST teams being grouped together lol.

not a geographer, just a huge NHL fan who is very interested in the topics of expansion/relocation/contraction and realignment.
And i already have thrown that map out, but for some reason the western americans never respond.