20-21 season: how will the NHL pull it off?

[Kaners Bald Spot]

I'm not sure that's the case.
60% effective with 75% of the country receiving it with continued social distancing for a few months should be the end of the pandemic and drop cases to almost 0 as long as the rate of spread stays low.
The virus won't find enough people to infect in the time (10 days or so?) that the carrier is contagious.

For example:

In IL the current rate of spread is 1.18
For every 100 people that get covid they're giving it to 118 other people.
Those 118 give it to 139 others.
139 give it to 164 others and so on.

Now with the same practices in place those 100 initial cases won't be spreading it to 118 others after 75% of the population gets vaccinated (at 60% efficacy.)
They'll be spreading to around 60 others.
And those 60 others will be spreading it to 32 others.
And those 32 will spread it to 17 others.

Within a few months we're basically down to 0.

(If my memory serves correct from Immunology, this is how it works.)

My math above is just for purposes of illustration. The actual models will provide actual numbers.

Kinda. You're failing to account for continued genetic mutation that will happen once the virus starts to get stifled a bit.

IIRC the flu vaccine is anywhere from 35-60% effective in a given winter. While a Covid-19 vaccine will probably be more effective, we've already proven that it's a year round disease that's especially devastating during the winter. As we vaccinate, we also have to watch how fast it mutates once the virus is stressed for reproduction. It could accelerate the process or stagnate. If it accelerates, then we have a flu situation where people are going to get sick regardless and there's only so much we can do. If it stagnates, then it can be slowed significantly.

If they have 7 genetic variants every 6 months on average, then they can target the most likely variants to vaccinate against. However, that leaves people unprotected against some strains. People would still need a summer and winter vaccine and people will still continue to get sick.

This thing is widespread enough that our best course of action is to slow it's spread as best as we can, but Covid-19 is just going to be a fact of life for decades, if not forever.

Most people when they get "the flu" they really have one of the 4 endemic human Coronaviruses known before 2019, one of which is the common cold. Actually getting influenza is really rare at this point.

 

[Pez68]

It jumped to Humans about a year ago, and by June there were at least 7 different genetic variants. The Flu might go even faster than that but going from one variant to 7 in 6 months is going to be hard to keep up with.

This is a lot of doom and gloom bullshit. The genetic variants don't matter unless there are MAJOR changes to the virus. That has not happened. These vaccines are being developed around a trait that all coronaviruses contain, from what I understand.

Oh, and when a virus mutates, the less deadly mutation ends up being the dominant strain.

And for the second time, a coronavirus vaccine is nothing like a flu vaccine. Stop comparing them.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

This is a lot of doom and gloom bullshit. The genetic variants don't matter unless there are MAJOR changes to the virus. That has not happened. These vaccines are being developed around a trait that all coronaviruses contain, from what I understand.

Oh, and when a virus mutates, the less deadly mutation ends up being the dominant strain.

And for the second time, a coronavirus vaccine is nothing like a flu vaccine.

Yep, because if it kills too many hosts it ends up killing itself in the process. Simple parasite evolution.

The thing that I heard they were trying to do was prevent the spikes from binding to ACE receptors. If it works, then it could potentially end colds as well.

Not trying to be all doom and gloom, but I think people are probably being overly optimistic on the timeframe.

 

[bandwagonesque]

It jumped to Humans about a year ago, and by June there were at least 7 different genetic variants. The Flu might go even faster than that but going from one variant to 7 in 6 months is going to be hard to keep up with.

If I’m not mistaken nearly all of those variants are either far less infectious or less virulent. That’s what I remember reading, anyway.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

If I’m not mistaken nearly all of those variants are either far less infectious or less virulent. That’s what I remember reading, anyway.

Not quite. They're less deadly, but more infectious. That's the way of viral evolution.

IIRC the strain that was hanging out in southern Europe(Italy/Spain) last winter was actually the deadliest variant, even more so than the original in Wuhan.

 

[Pez68]

Edit: See COVID thread.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Correct. The point is, there's no reason to be pessimistic at this point. We don't know enough. But we do know that the coronavirus vaccine will not be like the flu vaccine, where you are injected with dead and inactive strains of various flu viruses. They are using genetic technology to teach your body to react to the spike protein unique to coronaviruses. So yeah, in theory, it could also provide protection against coronavirus colds(there are a ton of different cold viruses, and coronavirus is just one of them).

The only thing to be pessimistic about is the timeframe. I find it hard to think that they can actually rush this thing through in less than 3.5-5 years from June 2020 and actually be sure the thing is safe. Profit motive makes people cut corners, and that could be disastrous.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

To me, the most logical thing would be to almost to treat the divisions as their own separate entities next season, with reformed Pacific, Central, and Atlantic divisions consisting of eight teams apiece with the Canadian division making up the seven teams north of the border.

For the American divisions, have everybody play the other seven teams in their division six times apiece, for a 42-game season, while the Canadian division has teams playing the other six teams seven times apiece, also for a 42-game season. And then just take the top four from each division for a purely divisional playoff with only respective divisional champs advancing to the conference finals, possibly in a bubble depending how things look next summer,

Simple and straight-forward. If there are any outbreaks, 3/4 of the league wouldn't be in contact with it.

 

[hawksfan50]

There was no bubble for MLB or the NFL and they did and are pukkingbit off..but of course either no fams(MKB) or drastically reduced stadium attendance aloiwed(NFL) ...so tgevissuevis not not having a bubble but rather:
No fans or very reduced fans to generate revenues to pay the players..

If only say 20% capacity with masks mandated might be allowed if seating spread out is tfat enough revenue to make it feasible?

Not sure how much of HRR is from TV contracts and how much from attendance and merch sales...Let me guess 20% tv and 80% the other categories...Say merch is 10% and 70% is attendance ..So if merch sales still stay as expected though I cannot see why this would not be effected too) ....it means that 70% -(20%x70%) = a 56% drop in HRR ....so thatxdhoukd mean a 56% salary take-back ....would the players s play for 56% less than what bornalkycwoukd be oaidcto rhem?

And even that wpukd be pro-rated for a reduced schedule?

No vaccinexwill be in mass use till orobably next summer at the earliest to let authorities let things go back to normal (even though a goid effective safe vaccine might be onkyv30%overall effective and might nit be tfat effective with the very elderly anyway).

At some pint Governments will cone to tgeir senses and stop the hide to control spread theory of viris management that never was practiced ever in history before SarsCov2 hit...and ibsteadxdocwhatctgeycshoukd have done from tge start...Treat those who get severe disease from the virus and prevent severity by boostibg immune health in the body's own system so tgat severity cannot gain a foothold but even more than the already high numbers who do not get sick now fron this will be even higher iin numbers...

We do have a lot better procedures and treatments for tgexsick tgan we did last March-April when this was new and we did not know much about this virus or how to convert it...And we know a lot more now about cheap preventive to help boost immunity system function of Tcells and Bcells and tge need to suppress over-oroduction of certain interlaken molecules that if not surprised in a response to viral attack will lead to cytokine storms in tge respiratory system.

We can do a kitcof tgevoroowr things with cheap Vitamin suppkenebtation(especialky vital are Vitamine D3 and VitanonB1 supplementation which in a large part of thebpiulation is deficient ....In one sense Covid 19 has expanded scientific knowledge of tge biochemical process involved will tge immune system's ability or notvto fight off this virtual attack ...

So...Governments and PubkucHealth officials cannot pisdibky keep up with tgese new discoveries it seems coming rapidly now almost everyday ...Tge fact us we are far better off now than in March-Apeil in understanding tge mostceffective preventive and clinical treatments agaivst tge disease.

Eventually Government will realize tge hide and wIt for a svuour vaccibe approach is not realjy needed and we can simply get better immunine responses from our own bodies with both cheap vitamin supplements in the right dose to get to maximize immune efficiency and with more expensive medications designed to prevent the virus from gaining a foothold.We Even recently discovered that using relatively cheap mptheashes for cleaning of throat and nose areas can also kill the viris if it has not yet got down into the lower respiratory tract.

And so there are many measures we already have that are useful ahaibst tge virus now ..such that we do not need the hide from it at all costs approach.

Eventually the PublicJealth people will go back to first principles of medicine...Get body in best health as possible...and simply treat disease ..

Tge question us When with the strategy switch?

If only till after they get a vaccine then indeed it is hard to see how NHL pulls it off with a 56% or more liss of revenue....

However if somebody can show PublicHealth that any rise in mortality is just normal to seasonal death or not tgat mich greater ...then maybectgey will realize that tgeir mask policy did nothing for stooibg case growth but did sonethibg to stop severity...or tgat tge virus itself mutatedctpva less lethal stage...or tgat treatmentsxand other health changes reduced severe cobsequencesvifvibfection.

So if mortality kept reasonably low as conoaredcto Narch-Aoril the OubkicHealth people you eoukd think woukd finalkyvreakuze tgeircdoom exlexted mortality rates are not goibg to be as bad as they irradiated. THIS WOUKD give them 2 strikes in their doom models...one for tge 1stxwave and now for tge 2ndcwave..theycwill realize a different strategy focuse on treatment and bettervirotectibgvtge elderly is a better course of dollars spent than alk the net harm they cause with kicking down rsstriction

When we get to that realization.. tgen we can open up without fear again.. We simply need better usage of the knowledge we have gained since this all started

I suspect in another 2 months the situation willbe more clear and if death rates can be correlated more for seadonality rather er to attribute to significant excess death from the virus alone.

What needs to be done is a comparison of deaths say over kast t 5 years before Covidc19 FROM all pneumonia,flu and chronic lower respiratory tract causes vs. the same now including the Covid 19 coded deaths...
If the death totals for 2020 prove not significantly differentfrom the normal expected range it means that Covid 19 coded death borrowed from the normal respiratory caused death...Nobody has yet published thise stats but by year end sonebody will have them and IF death not significantly above normal expectation then questions about the fear from thus virus causing g above normal death will have greater weight to challenge restriction policies.

If death "from" Covid 19 over all respiratory problem causes of death was in excess only inMarch-Aoril 1st wave stage of 2020 then the Fall deaths from respiratoryillness including Covidc19 woukd merely be ofv seasonal normal range expected.

Cases mean nothing..only Severity....that is hospitalization and death numbers IN EXCESS to "normal" is what matters most.

We need to know what tfe data says to make proper good policy.

So I think we get the answer as by what happens next 2 months ...

So maybe they will allow crowds back to stadiums...but will that be in January or will they phase it back slowly again so that full crowds not there till next sumnervor fall?


And even If the Governments start to admit their doom models were way off on death predictions,they have done such a good job scaring enough people that the reluctance of many to go back into crowds even alk wearing masks will be do great that many people will just remain scared the rest of their lives even After sone vaccine is mass distributed..

Some people are now germophobes for life ...an will even after vacvines cone abd are taken by them,will retain fear of close contact situations the rest of their lives..


So it may take some time.. a long time...for people to dare "risk" going to arenas and stadiuns again...This fear factor will hurt atrendance revenues for teams even after Governments relax restrictions again..


So if the NHL faces reduced revenue...less attendance than needed even after regulation taken off again,then indeed How can the NHL operate in such an environment?

It woukd bevibteresting for a Vegas bet line for how long it will take for attendance to get back to "normal" for different sports once all restrictions for attendance are lifted.

The bets would be on:
.attendance back to normal within 1st season
After all restriction lifted.

.From 2nd season after restriction lifted to end of 3rd season after restrictions lifted.

. 4 sessons cr more after restrictions lifted on attending live spirts events .

It woukd bevibterstingvto see tge betting line odds Vegas woud gove for each ofctgse scenarios to bet on.

 

[BK]

There was no bubble for MLB or the NFL and they did and are pukkingbit off..but of course either no fams(MKB) or drastically reduced stadium attendance aloiwed(NFL) ...so tgevissuevis not not having a bubble but rather:
No fans or very reduced fans to generate revenues to pay the players..

If only say 20% capacity with masks mandated might be allowed if seating spread out is tfat enough revenue to make it feasible?

Not sure how much of HRR is from TV contracts and how much from attendance and merch sales...Let me guess 20% tv and 80% the other categories...Say merch is 10% and 70% is attendance ..So if merch sales still stay as expected though I cannot see why this would not be effected too) ....it means that 70% -(20%x70%) = a 56% drop in HRR ....so thatxdhoukd mean a 56% salary take-back ....would the players s play for 56% less than what bornalkycwoukd be oaidcto rhem?

And even that wpukd be pro-rated for a reduced schedule?

No vaccinexwill be in mass use till orobably next summer at the earliest to let authorities let things go back to normal (even though a goid effective safe vaccine might be onkyv30%overall effective and might nit be tfat effective with the very elderly anyway).

At some pint Governments will cone to tgeir senses and stop the hide to control spread theory of viris management that never was practiced ever in history before SarsCov2 hit...and ibsteadxdocwhatctgeycshoukd have done from tge start...Treat those who get severe disease from the virus and prevent severity by boostibg immune health in the body's own system so tgat severity cannot gain a foothold but even more than the already high numbers who do not get sick now fron this will be even higher iin numbers...

We do have a lot better procedures and treatments for tgexsick tgan we did last March-April when this was new and we did not know much about this virus or how to convert it...And we know a lot more now about cheap preventive to help boost immunity system function of Tcells and Bcells and tge need to suppress over-oroduction of certain interlaken molecules that if not surprised in a response to viral attack will lead to cytokine storms in tge respiratory system.

We can do a kitcof tgevoroowr things with cheap Vitamin suppkenebtation(especialky vital are Vitamine D3 and VitanonB1 supplementation which in a large part of thebpiulation is deficient ....In one sense Covid 19 has expanded scientific knowledge of tge biochemical process involved will tge immune system's ability or notvto fight off this virtual attack ...

So...Governments and PubkucHealth officials cannot pisdibky keep up with tgese new discoveries it seems coming rapidly now almost everyday ...Tge fact us we are far better off now than in March-Apeil in understanding tge mostceffective preventive and clinical treatments agaivst tge disease.

Eventually Government will realize tge hide and wIt for a svuour vaccibe approach is not realjy needed and we can simply get better immunine responses from our own bodies with both cheap vitamin supplements in the right dose to get to maximize immune efficiency and with more expensive medications designed to prevent the virus from gaining a foothold.We Even recently discovered that using relatively cheap mptheashes for cleaning of throat and nose areas can also kill the viris if it has not yet got down into the lower respiratory tract.

And so there are many measures we already have that are useful ahaibst tge virus now ..such that we do not need the hide from it at all costs approach.

Eventually the PublicJealth people will go back to first principles of medicine...Get body in best health as possible...and simply treat disease ..

Tge question us When with the strategy switch?

If only till after they get a vaccine then indeed it is hard to see how NHL pulls it off with a 56% or more liss of revenue....

However if somebody can show PublicHealth that any rise in mortality is just normal to seasonal death or not tgat mich greater ...then maybectgey will realize that tgeir mask policy did nothing for stooibg case growth but did sonethibg to stop severity...or tgat tge virus itself mutatedctpva less lethal stage...or tgat treatmentsxand other health changes reduced severe cobsequencesvifvibfection.

So if mortality kept reasonably low as conoaredcto Narch-Aoril the OubkicHealth people you eoukd think woukd finalkyvreakuze tgeircdoom exlexted mortality rates are not goibg to be as bad as they irradiated. THIS WOUKD give them 2 strikes in their doom models...one for tge 1stxwave and now for tge 2ndcwave..theycwill realize a different strategy focuse on treatment and bettervirotectibgvtge elderly is a better course of dollars spent than alk the net harm they cause with kicking down rsstriction

When we get to that realization.. tgen we can open up without fear again.. We simply need better usage of the knowledge we have gained since this all started

I suspect in another 2 months the situation willbe more clear and if death rates can be correlated more for seadonality rather er to attribute to significant excess death from the virus alone.

What needs to be done is a comparison of deaths say over kast t 5 years before Covidc19 FROM all pneumonia,flu and chronic lower respiratory tract causes vs. the same now including the Covid 19 coded deaths...
If the death totals for 2020 prove not significantly differentfrom the normal expected range it means that Covid 19 coded death borrowed from the normal respiratory caused death...Nobody has yet published thise stats but by year end sonebody will have them and IF death not significantly above normal expectation then questions about the fear from thus virus causing g above normal death will have greater weight to challenge restriction policies.

If death "from" Covid 19 over all respiratory problem causes of death was in excess only inMarch-Aoril 1st wave stage of 2020 then the Fall deaths from respiratoryillness including Covidc19 woukd merely be ofv seasonal normal range expected.

Cases mean nothing..only Severity....that is hospitalization and death numbers IN EXCESS to "normal" is what matters most.

We need to know what tfe data says to make proper good policy.

So I think we get the answer as by what happens next 2 months ...

So maybe they will allow crowds back to stadiums...but will that be in January or will they phase it back slowly again so that full crowds not there till next sumnervor fall?


And even If the Governments start to admit their doom models were way off on death predictions,they have done such a good job scaring enough people that the reluctance of many to go back into crowds even alk wearing masks will be do great that many people will just remain scared the rest of their lives even After sone vaccine is mass distributed..

Some people are now germophobes for life ...an will even after vacvines cone abd are taken by them,will retain fear of close contact situations the rest of their lives..


So it may take some time.. a long time...for people to dare "risk" going to arenas and stadiuns again...This fear factor will hurt atrendance revenues for teams even after Governments relax restrictions again..


So if the NHL faces reduced revenue...less attendance than needed even after regulation taken off again,then indeed How can the NHL operate in such an environment?

It woukd bevibteresting for a Vegas bet line for how long it will take for attendance to get back to "normal" for different sports once all restrictions for attendance are lifted.

The bets would be on:
.attendance back to normal within 1st season
After all restriction lifted.

.From 2nd season after restriction lifted to end of 3rd season after restrictions lifted.

. 4 sessons cr more after restrictions lifted on attending live spirts events .

It woukd bevibterstingvto see tge betting line odds Vegas woud gove for each ofctgse scenarios to bet on.

cobsequencesvifvibfection.


For sure.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Anyway, I don't think we should expect more than half seasons until fans are allowed again.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

To me, the most logical thing would be to almost to treat the divisions as their own separate entities next season, with reformed Pacific, Central, and Atlantic divisions consisting of eight teams apiece with the Canadian division making up the seven teams north of the border.

For the American divisions, have everybody play the other seven teams in their division six times apiece, for a 42-game season, while the Canadian division has teams playing the other six teams seven times apiece, also for a 42-game season. And then just take the top four from each division for a purely divisional playoff with only respective divisional champs advancing to the conference finals, possibly in a bubble depending how things look next summer,

Simple and straight-forward. If there are any outbreaks, 3/4 of the league wouldn't be in contact with it.

I agree, a regional regular season is all that makes sense given that a quarter of the league are stuck by themselves.

I don't think they'll "bubble" but I won't be surprised if they use rotating hubs of some kind to save on travel costs, IE: Teams A, B, & C travel to D for a week and play everyone once, that sort of thing.

 

[bwana63]

Luszczyszyn ($): How an imbalanced Canada Division would affect the standings

Generally, pretty dubious about the accuracy of hockey models. That said, Luszczyszyn's is one of the better ones.

Some interesting Hawks nuggets:
- strength of schedule would be high
- has us pegged as a lottery contender

My take: we are lined up very nicely to be landing a difference maker in the '21 draft.

 

[crazyhawk]

There was no bubble for MLB or the NFL and they did and are pukkingbit off..but of course either no fams(MKB) or drastically reduced stadium attendance aloiwed(NFL) ...so tgevissuevis not not having a bubble but rather:
No fans or very reduced fans to generate revenues to pay the players..

If only say 20% capacity with masks mandated might be allowed if seating spread out is tfat enough revenue to make it feasible?

Not sure how much of HRR is from TV contracts and how much from attendance and merch sales...Let me guess 20% tv and 80% the other categories...Say merch is 10% and 70% is attendance ..So if merch sales still stay as expected though I cannot see why this would not be effected too) ....it means that 70% -(20%x70%) = a 56% drop in HRR ....so thatxdhoukd mean a 56% salary take-back ....would the players s play for 56% less than what bornalkycwoukd be oaidcto rhem?

And even that wpukd be pro-rated for a reduced schedule?

No vaccinexwill be in mass use till orobably next summer at the earliest to let authorities let things go back to normal (even though a goid effective safe vaccine might be onkyv30%overall effective and might nit be tfat effective with the very elderly anyway).

At some pint Governments will cone to tgeir senses and stop the hide to control spread theory of viris management that never was practiced ever in history before SarsCov2 hit...and ibsteadxdocwhatctgeycshoukd have done from tge start...Treat those who get severe disease from the virus and prevent severity by boostibg immune health in the body's own system so tgat severity cannot gain a foothold but even more than the already high numbers who do not get sick now fron this will be even higher iin numbers...

We do have a lot better procedures and treatments for tgexsick tgan we did last March-April when this was new and we did not know much about this virus or how to convert it...And we know a lot more now about cheap preventive to help boost immunity system function of Tcells and Bcells and tge need to suppress over-oroduction of certain interlaken molecules that if not surprised in a response to viral attack will lead to cytokine storms in tge respiratory system.

We can do a kitcof tgevoroowr things with cheap Vitamin suppkenebtation(especialky vital are Vitamine D3 and VitanonB1 supplementation which in a large part of thebpiulation is deficient ....In one sense Covid 19 has expanded scientific knowledge of tge biochemical process involved will tge immune system's ability or notvto fight off this virtual attack ...

So...Governments and PubkucHealth officials cannot pisdibky keep up with tgese new discoveries it seems coming rapidly now almost everyday ...Tge fact us we are far better off now than in March-Apeil in understanding tge mostceffective preventive and clinical treatments agaivst tge disease.

Eventually Government will realize tge hide and wIt for a svuour vaccibe approach is not realjy needed and we can simply get better immunine responses from our own bodies with both cheap vitamin supplements in the right dose to get to maximize immune efficiency and with more expensive medications designed to prevent the virus from gaining a foothold.We Even recently discovered that using relatively cheap mptheashes for cleaning of throat and nose areas can also kill the viris if it has not yet got down into the lower respiratory tract.

And so there are many measures we already have that are useful ahaibst tge virus now ..such that we do not need the hide from it at all costs approach.

Eventually the PublicJealth people will go back to first principles of medicine...Get body in best health as possible...and simply treat disease ..

Tge question us When with the strategy switch?

If only till after they get a vaccine then indeed it is hard to see how NHL pulls it off with a 56% or more liss of revenue....

However if somebody can show PublicHealth that any rise in mortality is just normal to seasonal death or not tgat mich greater ...then maybectgey will realize that tgeir mask policy did nothing for stooibg case growth but did sonethibg to stop severity...or tgat tge virus itself mutatedctpva less lethal stage...or tgat treatmentsxand other health changes reduced severe cobsequencesvifvibfection.

So if mortality kept reasonably low as conoaredcto Narch-Aoril the OubkicHealth people you eoukd think woukd finalkyvreakuze tgeircdoom exlexted mortality rates are not goibg to be as bad as they irradiated. THIS WOUKD give them 2 strikes in their doom models...one for tge 1stxwave and now for tge 2ndcwave..theycwill realize a different strategy focuse on treatment and bettervirotectibgvtge elderly is a better course of dollars spent than alk the net harm they cause with kicking down rsstriction

When we get to that realization.. tgen we can open up without fear again.. We simply need better usage of the knowledge we have gained since this all started

I suspect in another 2 months the situation willbe more clear and if death rates can be correlated more for seadonality rather er to attribute to significant excess death from the virus alone.

What needs to be done is a comparison of deaths say over kast t 5 years before Covidc19 FROM all pneumonia,flu and chronic lower respiratory tract causes vs. the same now including the Covid 19 coded deaths...
If the death totals for 2020 prove not significantly differentfrom the normal expected range it means that Covid 19 coded death borrowed from the normal respiratory caused death...Nobody has yet published thise stats but by year end sonebody will have them and IF death not significantly above normal expectation then questions about the fear from thus virus causing g above normal death will have greater weight to challenge restriction policies.

If death "from" Covid 19 over all respiratory problem causes of death was in excess only inMarch-Aoril 1st wave stage of 2020 then the Fall deaths from respiratoryillness including Covidc19 woukd merely be ofv seasonal normal range expected.

Cases mean nothing..only Severity....that is hospitalization and death numbers IN EXCESS to "normal" is what matters most.

We need to know what tfe data says to make proper good policy.

So I think we get the answer as by what happens next 2 months ...

So maybe they will allow crowds back to stadiums...but will that be in January or will they phase it back slowly again so that full crowds not there till next sumnervor fall?


And even If the Governments start to admit their doom models were way off on death predictions,they have done such a good job scaring enough people that the reluctance of many to go back into crowds even alk wearing masks will be do great that many people will just remain scared the rest of their lives even After sone vaccine is mass distributed..

Some people are now germophobes for life ...an will even after vacvines cone abd are taken by them,will retain fear of close contact situations the rest of their lives..


So it may take some time.. a long time...for people to dare "risk" going to arenas and stadiuns again...This fear factor will hurt atrendance revenues for teams even after Governments relax restrictions again..


So if the NHL faces reduced revenue...less attendance than needed even after regulation taken off again,then indeed How can the NHL operate in such an environment?

It woukd bevibteresting for a Vegas bet line for how long it will take for attendance to get back to "normal" for different sports once all restrictions for attendance are lifted.

The bets would be on:
.attendance back to normal within 1st season
After all restriction lifted.

.From 2nd season after restriction lifted to end of 3rd season after restrictions lifted.

. 4 sessons cr more after restrictions lifted on attending live spirts events .

It woukd bevibterstingvto see tge betting line odds Vegas woud gove for each ofctgse scenarios to bet on.

You know 50 .. people might actually appreciate your posts if you would only take the time to figure out a way to not grossly misspell every other word.
If it's a cell phone / big clumsy finger issue then try dictating your post. Or pick up a cheap laptop man!

 

[x Tame Impala]

To me, the most logical thing would be to almost to treat the divisions as their own separate entities next season, with reformed Pacific, Central, and Atlantic divisions consisting of eight teams apiece with the Canadian division making up the seven teams north of the border.

For the American divisions, have everybody play the other seven teams in their division six times apiece, for a 42-game season, while the Canadian division has teams playing the other six teams seven times apiece, also for a 42-game season. And then just take the top four from each division for a purely divisional playoff with only respective divisional champs advancing to the conference finals, possibly in a bubble depending how things look next summer,

Simple and straight-forward. If there are any outbreaks, 3/4 of the league wouldn't be in contact with it.

I think that’s how it’d probably have to be done. I think the most pertinent question is whether or not the league and NHLPA agree to bubble off players again.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I doubt that they do. Way too many moving parts, players and staff, and games to bubble it up. At most they'll pull an MLB and keep arenas empty. Maybe they should do the Toews plan and keep teams in markets for multiple consecutive games to reduce travel (though Canada with an odd number would be hard to do)?

 

[ozzzie19]

To me, the most logical thing would be to almost to treat the divisions as their own separate entities next season, with reformed Pacific, Central, and Atlantic divisions consisting of eight teams apiece with the Canadian division making up the seven teams north of the border.

For the American divisions, have everybody play the other seven teams in their division six times apiece, for a 42-game season, while the Canadian division has teams playing the other six teams seven times apiece, also for a 42-game season. And then just take the top four from each division for a purely divisional playoff with only respective divisional champs advancing to the conference finals, possibly in a bubble depending how things look next summer,

Simple and straight-forward. If there are any outbreaks, 3/4 of the league wouldn't be in contact with it.

This is the most sensical path. However, on a more detailed level, a lot will matter about if there can be fans in the stands and if so how/if teams would divide game day revenue, bubbles, schedules, etc.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Ahl targeting February 5th start to there season.
Moved back from December 4th this season.

Ohl targeting February 4th start with camps starting January 23rd. Hoping to play 40 game regular season.

 

[Hinterland]

This is gonna be an uphill climb. I think it could be done much better than here in Switzerland but what we've got here is a mess. No more spectators from tomorrow and constant re scheduling of games due to quarantined teams. It's also a financial tragedy...you gotta wonder for how much longer they can keep this going.

NHL surely is more professional and has a lot more money at hand. But the travelling necessary, and international travelling in particular, is why I don't see it working if covid situations in the States and Canada don't improve. Here in Switzerland, the longest journey is a 5h bus ride from Davos to Geneva or vice versa.

 

[Pez68]

Ahl targeting February 5th start to there season.
Moved back from December 4th this season.

Ohl targeting February 4th start with camps starting January 23rd. Hoping to play 40 game regular season.

Look for the NHL to do the same. That's likely where they got their direction from.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Reading on the main boards that some teams are allegedly considering dropping out if worse comes to worst. I'm starting to think...

-There won't be a season until next Spring because travel won't be smart or safe. It'll also be too hard to keep COVID cases at a low level during the winter when it looks like the whole planet is going to see case #'s skyrocket

-It'll be a shortened (40-50 games) season and teams will be bubbled off into 4 groups

-Top 4 teams from each bubble make the playoffs, still play 4 rounds best of 7

-The final four 4 bubble teams will be reseeded and finish out the playoffs, which would probably take place late Fall of 2021

 

[RayP]

Reading on the main boards that some teams are allegedly considering dropping out if worse comes to worst. I'm starting to think...

-There won't be a season until next Spring because travel won't be smart or safe. It'll also be too hard to keep COVID cases at a low level during the winter when it looks like the whole planet is going to see case #'s skyrocket

-It'll be a shortened (40-50 games) season and teams will be bubbled off into 4 groups

-Top 4 teams from each bubble make the playoffs, still play 4 rounds best of 7

-The final four 4 bubble teams will be reseeded and finish out the playoffs, which would probably take place late Fall of 2021

Could this mean teams like Florida or Arizona may end up having to fold or the league folds them because of this? Is that even possible/practical?

 

[Mrfenn92]

NBA and the players association moving towards an agreement for the start of next season on dec 22nd. Vote will be tomorrow and Friday. 72 game season:

 

[RayP]

NBA and the players association moving towards an agreement for the start of next season on dec 22nd. Vote will be tomorrow and Friday. 72 game season:

72 games seems a bit too ambitious of a goal.

 

[Mrfenn92]

72 games seems a bit too ambitious of a goal.

Agreed. Starting that early and getting that many games in is worth between $500 million to a $1 billion in future revenue for the league and players. So just a money thing