20-21 season: how will the NHL pull it off?

[bwana63]

Really good Athletic article ($): Inside NHL's plan for 2020-21 season: It's 'more challenging' than summer return

Holy logistical nightmare, Batman! Potential collective wet dream for some of our Canadian brethren, lol.

Click to read more...

 

[Toews2Bickell]

hopefully season is like 40 games and Hawks are abysmal...would go a long way toward the rebuild

 

[bwana63]

hopefully season is like 40 games and Hawks are abysmal...would go a long way toward the rebuild

Short term pain, long term huge gain (#1D)? Fully on board. Total no-brainer.

 

[RayP]

Short term pain, long term huge gain (#1D)? Fully on board. Total no-brainer.

Still think I’d prefer 1 more elite F prospect to go with Dach and hope Mitchell and Boqvist become very good.


It’s almost impossible to win a Cup without elite forwards, but you can do it without multiple elite defenseman. Hopefully one of Mitchell or Boqvist can somehow be close to elite.

 

[Brightwing]

Good article. I admit it would be fun to be in the same division as Detroit again.

From the article:

A scenario that may make sense?

Revamped Pacific: Anaheim, Arizona, Colorado, Dallas, Los Angeles, Minnesota, San Jose and Vegas.

Revamped Central: Carolina, Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, Florida, Nashville, St. Louis and Tampa Bay.

Revamped Atlantic/Metro: Boston, Buffalo, New Jersey, N.Y. Islanders, N.Y. Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Washington.

 

[bwana63]

Still think I’d prefer 1 more elite F prospect to go with Dach and hope Mitchell and Boqvist become very good.


It’s almost impossible to win a Cup without elite forwards, but you can do it without multiple elite defenseman. Hopefully one of Mitchell or Boqvist can somehow be close to elite.

I have very high hopes for Mitchell and Boqvist. I think the floor is good and the ceiling is very high. That said, both are PMD. I'd really, really love to add an elite, preferably monster, LD (Shea Webber type). Our D would be cooking (eventually).

 

[RayP]

I have very high hopes for Mitchell and Boqvist. I think the floor is good and the ceiling is very high. That said, both are PMD. I'd really, really love to add an elite, preferably monster, LD (Shea Webber type). Our D would be cooking (eventually).

No doubt.... although I’d settle for Vlasic being a very good second pairing guy to fill that void a bit.


Regardless, just goes to show how badly we need at least one more young elite talent.

 

[MileHighHawksFan]

Anybody know Regula’s preference??

 

[bwana63]

Anybody know Regula’s preference??

Blondes?

 

[RayP]

How feasible is a long term bubble if you could even get the players to agree to it? I ask that from a financial perspective. Getting the playoffs going is one thing. But to have a bubble for the entire league for even a shortened season doesn’t seem all that practical financially.


Having the teams travel doesn’t seem practical either when you favor in the border.

You’d almost certainly have to do some regionally, but how many times can central based teams play each other before it’s just too redundant?

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

How feasible is a long term bubble if you could even get the players to agree to it? I ask that from a financial perspective. Getting the playoffs going is one thing. But to have a bubble for the entire league for even a shortened season doesn’t seem all that practical financially.


Having the teams travel doesn’t seem practical either when you favor in the border.

You’d almost certainly have to do some regionally, but how many times can central based teams play each other before it’s just too redundant?

Yeah the 2021 season looks like it might be in trouble. The more we find out about COVID-19, the worse the news is for the NHL. They're getting hit the hardest of all pro sports.

I'd put the chances of a season at 50-50 at this point. Things look even worse if this runs into winter 21-22.

 

[Pez68]

I don't know how they are going to pull it off, to be perfectly honest. A bubble isn't feasible for a whole season. Financially, or logistically. If you're not going to have a bubble, you will have outbreaks, and you will have entire teams down and out. I am not optimistic there will be a 2020-2021 season.

 

[CPHawksFan]

Doesn't it all depend on when a vaccine is made available? As far as I'm concerned, if a vaccine comes out everything should return to near normal or normal. Isn't that the point of a vaccine?

 

[bwana63]

50/50 is looking like a long shot to me (not an epidemiologist, lol). Traveling "bubbles" for each team...gonna be much tougher than the playoffs. The league did a great job with the playoffs, but hermetically sealing 30 odd environments? Not even McJesus can do it.

 

[bwana63]

Doesn't it all depend on when a vaccine is made available? As far as I'm concerned, if a vaccine comes out everything should return to near normal or normal. Isn't that the point of a vaccine?

Spring '21? Summer? ~50% efficacy? Lot more questions than answers, at this point.

 

[Pez68]

Doesn't it all depend on when a vaccine is made available? As far as I'm concerned, if a vaccine comes out everything should return to near normal or normal. Isn't that the point of a vaccine?

Not really. There isn't going to be a vaccine before the NHL season starts... When there is, who knows what the efficacy will be. A vaccine isn't a silver bullet here, and there's never been a vaccine for a coronavirus, either. Nothing is certain.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

All they can really do is prepare for full season but plan for interruptions (Potential shortening) if required

Say you want 82 game season but have scenario's in which as a result of quarantines , etc you play less)

And then potential bubble playoff again

 

[MileHighHawksFan]

Doesn't it all depend on when a vaccine is made available? As far as I'm concerned, if a vaccine comes out everything should return to near normal or normal. Isn't that the point of a vaccine?

I’ve heard the issue is by the time this vaccine comes out the strain likely has mutated rendering the vaccine less effective than desired or perceived.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

I’ve heard the issue is by the time this vaccine comes out the strain likely has mutated rendering the vaccine less effective than desired or perceived.

Yeah this thing is like the flu. People are going to have to be vaccinated every 6 months or so and it's still only going to be 60% effective.

 

[Pez68]

I’ve heard the issue is by the time this vaccine comes out the strain likely has mutated rendering the vaccine less effective than desired or perceived.

I am not sure this is accurate. This vaccine is not like flu vaccines where you develop antibodies to specific strains of the virus. The coronavirus vaccine is teaching your body to recognize and attack the spike protein that is characteristic of coronaviruses. It is an entirely new type of vaccine, which is why there are so many doubts.

Different Approaches to a Coronavirus Vaccine

 

[MileHighHawksFan]

I am not sure this is accurate. This vaccine is not like flu vaccines where you develop antibodies to specific strains of the virus. The coronavirus vaccine is teaching your body to recognize and attack the spike protein that is characteristic of coronaviruses. It is an entirely new type of vaccine, which is why there are so many doubts.

Different Approaches to a Coronavirus Vaccine

Very interesting, thank you for sharing!

 

[bandwagonesque]

Yeah this thing is like the flu. People are going to have to be vaccinated every 6 months or so and it's still only going to be 60% effective.

COVID-19 mutates far more slowly than the influenza virus.

 

[hawksrule]

I would be very surprised if they didn’t have at least a mini-season. Even if that loses more money than cancelling everything altogether, missing a whole year could be pretty damaging to the league long term.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

COVID-19 mutates far more slowly than the influenza virus.

It jumped to Humans about a year ago, and by June there were at least 7 different genetic variants. The Flu might go even faster than that but going from one variant to 7 in 6 months is going to be hard to keep up with.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Yeah this thing is like the flu. People are going to have to be vaccinated every 6 months or so and it's still only going to be 60% effective.

I'm not sure that's the case.
60% effective with 75% of the country receiving it with continued social distancing for a few months should be the end of the pandemic and drop cases to almost 0 as long as the rate of spread stays low.
The virus won't find enough people to infect in the time (10 days or so?) that the carrier is contagious.

For example:

In IL the current rate of spread is 1.18
For every 100 people that get covid they're giving it to 118 other people.
Those 118 give it to 139 others.
139 give it to 164 others and so on.

Now with the same practices in place those 100 initial cases won't be spreading it to 118 others after 75% of the population gets vaccinated (at 60% efficacy.)
They'll be spreading to around 60 others.
And those 60 others will be spreading it to 32 others.
And those 32 will spread it to 17 others.

Within a few months we're basically down to 0.

(If my memory serves correct from Immunology, this is how it works.)

My math above is just for purposes of illustration. The actual models will provide actual numbers.