GDT: #19 | FLYERS (A) vs. Penguins (H) | Tue., Mar. 2 | 7:00 pm ET|NBCSN, SNE, SNO, SNW, ATTSN-PT, NBCSP

[flyersnorth]

Even if he is migraine-free, just letting him watch a game could be wise.

I think it's a confidence issue. Notice how quickly he wants to get rid of the puck when he has it. He's never the one leading the rush. The times when he is the lead man, he's immediately looking to get rid of it once he hits the blueline, and let someone else do the work of setting up a play or creating something.

There's a level of assertiveness and purpose missing from his offensive game. You see that in Farabee's game, but not in Nolan's.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Hayes is the most incomprehensible whipping boy I’ve seen here. It’s weird even by this board’s standards. He definitely should not be healthy scratched.

The hatred is completely nonsensical. He also was the team's best player in the playoffs and a necessary cog in the team's turnaround.

 

[Rebels57]

As much as his play warrants it, Kevin "Face of the Franchise" Hayes is not going to be HSed. With that accepted, I don't think it would be a very bad idea to rest Patrick for a game, not so much punitive as giving him a breather to recalibrate and self-care. We don't know whether his migraines are completely gone or just manageable so caution may be a good idea. Even if he is migraine-free, just letting him watch a game could be wise.

I don't think now is the time yet. Maybe sometime during this 6 games in 9 days stretch, but I liked his game this past week aside from passing up a few shot opportunities. Let's see if he can build off of it.

 

[Striiker]

Using xGF% alone may not paint the full picture, but it doesn't look like Hayes hampering Giroux or making him less effective

5v5

Hayes w/ Giroux xGF%: 57.73%
Hayes w/o Giroux xGF%: 46.63%
Giroux w/o Hayes xGF%: 46.50%

It's not that he's a Hagg-type where he's a possession black hole and can't get into the offensive zone. The problem is that once he's in the offensive zone, he doesn't make the right decisions with the puck, holds it way too long, and it prevents scoring opportunities that would otherwise be available.

It's the same as Provorov's problem on the PP. Just holding the puck for no reason when you'd be better off making a quick pass.

As far as Giroux's numbers without Hayes, yeah, it doesn't tell the story too well and it's also skewed because of mixed line changes, being out with the bottom six for faceoffs, or other stuff like that. For example, he has 29 minutes with Laughton and an 27.02 xGF% in that time.

 

[BernieParent]

I don't think now is the time yet. Maybe sometime during this 6 games in 9 days stretch, but I liked his game this past week aside from passing up a few shot opportunities. Let's see if he can build off of it.

Agreed, Reb. I didn't mean for Tuesday specifically.

 

[Striiker]

Also, yes, Hayes should not and will not be healthy scratched.

We just need to switch up the lines.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I don't think they should disrupt the JVR-Couturier-Farabee line. They are playing with fantastic chemistry and production.

That leaves Giroux-Hayes- and either Voracek or TK. I'd say TK, because Voracek has more value separated from Hayes.

So:

JVR-Couturier-Farabee
Giroux-Hayes-Konecny
Lindblom-Laughton-Voracek
Raffl-Patrick-NAK

 

[Stizzle]

you all ready for Freidman to score on us right ?

I'm rooting for it.

 

[WhoOwnDaChiefs]

I'm rooting for it.

 

[Doodootheclown]

I just think Patrick is a better fit with G. Hayes does not mesh with G. He doesn't really mesh with anyone, but especially not G. G's game relies so much on quickly making the right decisions with the puck, on being able to understand where everybody on the ice is or is going to be and what they're going to do. Hayes does so much freelancing out there because he's just making it up as he goes, that it's impossible to know what he's going to do. He doesn't even know what he's going to do.

I hate hearing him scream at G for the puck. It's like bro, if you're open G will find you. Beaver tails the ice for the puck, hangs onto it until he has no space left, no look spin-o-rama pass that's intercepted.

 

[Canfly]

Also, yes, Hayes should not and will not be healthy scratched.

We just need to switch up the lines.

The reason I said about a benching is that AVs way of thinking. Not so much on Hayes himself.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Interesting stat: Giroux only has one more ES point than Raffl. 8 vs 7.

 

[Striiker]

The reason I said about a benching is that AVs way of thinking. Not so much on Hayes himself.

Yeah, I figured. Going by AVs established precedent, it'd make sense to scratch him (even though it'd be the wrong choice), but that would require consistency so...

 

[FlyTimmo]

It's not that he's a Hagg-type where he's a possession black hole and can't get into the offensive zone. The problem is that once he's in the offensive zone, he doesn't make the right decisions with the puck, holds it way too long, and it prevents scoring opportunities that would otherwise be available.

It's the same as Provorov's problem on the PP. Just holding the puck for no reason when you'd be better off making a quick pass.

As far as Giroux's numbers without Hayes, yeah, it doesn't tell the story too well and it's also skewed because of mixed line changes, being out with the bottom six for faceoffs, or other stuff like that. For example, he has 29 minutes with Laughton and an 27.02 xGF% in that time.

It obviously isn't the full story considering the Hayes/Giroux duo has a lovely 107 PDO. But, I do think Hayes might get a tad too much hate or fault for making his linemates worse when the effect may be fairly insignificant.

 

[WhoOwnDaChiefs]

Hayes does create a line structure problem because of his style of play. I think putting him between JVR and Farabee could work. JVR is a net front monster right now and the league is aware. His presence there is going to draw defenders and create space outside for a player like Hayes. Farabee stays with JVR because those 2 are completely in sync right now and JVR hasn't looked this good since, well, ever. Then you have this:
Giroux/Couturier/Konecny if this doesn't get TK going, what will?
Laughton/Patrick/Voracek - Laughton or Patrick at center
Raffl/Bunnaman/Lindblom or Aube-Kubel

I love Oskar but he's not quite back yet.

Another crazy thought would be moving Giroux back to center. I know why he was moved to wing and I get the idea of "freeing him up" out on wing, but Couturier, Giroux and Hayes down the middle is nice.

 

[Striiker]

It obviously isn't the full story considering the Hayes/Giroux duo has a lovely 107 PDO. But, I do think Hayes might get a tad too much hate or fault for making his linemates worse when the effect may be fairly insignificant.

I don't think it's insignificant at all, especially since it's such a consistent a problem with him. Everything adds up and everything matters. Maybe it doesn't in a 3-0 win but we're not always playing the Sabres in a regular season game.

What's most infuriating about it is that it's so preventable. He's choosing to do this. Nothing is preventing him from making the simple 5 foot pass instead of holding it until he loses it.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I don't think it's insignificant at all, especially since it's such a consistent a problem with him. Everything adds up and everything matters. Maybe it doesn't in a 3-0 win but we're not always playing the Sabres in a regular season game.

What's most infuriating about it is that it's so preventable. He's choosing to do this. Nothing is preventing him from making the simple 5 foot pass instead of holding it until he loses it.

Going back to the start of last year w/ min. of 200 minutes played together.

Players with worse xGF% when playing with Hayes
- Konecny
- Farabee
- Voracek
Players with better xGF% when playing with Hayes
- Giroux
- Laughton
- JVR

If it was such a massive problem, I don't think it would look quite like this. Again, this may not be the most effective way to look at his impact, but you haven't convinced me yet that Hayes is a large detriment to who he plays with.

 

[Striiker]

Going back to the start of last year w/ min. of 200 minutes played together.

Players with worse xGF% when playing with Hayes
- Konecny
- Farabee
- Voracek
Players with better xGF% when playing with Hayes
- Giroux
- Laughton
- JVR

If it was such a massive problem, I don't think it would look quite like this. Again, this may not be the most effective way to look at his impact, but you haven't convinced me yet that Hayes is a large detriment to who he plays with.

I think you're missing my point.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I think you're missing my point.

What that he holds onto the puck to long?

 

[Canfly]

What that he holds onto the puck to long?

Exactly. The reason he does not fit with Giroux is because Giroux needs the puck to be effective. Like one poster said, Hayes style probably fits more with JVR and Farabee and lets not kid ourselves he played terrible on Saturday. He was better yesterday although I missed the first period.

 

[Striiker]

What that he holds onto the puck to long?

That he's a bad stylistic match to play with the guy on our team we want to have the puck the most because he holds the puck too long and far too often completely refuses to pass the puck when it's clearly the right move.

The stats your posting aren't contradicting my point, so I don't think we're on the same page here. I'm not saying he's a bad possession player, that he doesn't have skill, or that he doesn't get/convert scoring chances himself.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Hayes definitely isn't Couturier who brings out the best in anyone. When he's out with players who don't get him/he doesn't get, the result is often ugly with all three forwards looking like they have no idea what anyone else is doing.

 

[deadhead]

Hayes is 28, and headed for a career season, at $7M he's a bargain compared to 31 year old Voracek at $8.25M. At Voracek's age, he'll have 2, not 3 years, left on his deal. Which is also why JVR is a better bargain, the way he's playing. He's 31 with 2 years left.

What makes Hayes more valuable, he's a center, he's a top PK guy and he's a solid PP guy.

None of these three are as good as Couts, who's gong to cost $10+M on an extension. You're gonna have to extend him after next season at 29 years old, so a 8 year deal could be iffy, with him making real money at age 34-36. But there's no choice in this case.

It's also why they probably want Seattle to take one of Voracek or JVR, with Ghost a less valuable subtraction. They can't afford to resign Laughton, then they have to extend Couts in two years, cap room is going to become a valuable commodity on this team going forward.

 

[FlyTimmo]

That he's a bad stylistic match to play with the guy on our team we want to have the puck the most because he holds the puck too long and far too often completely refuses to pass the puck when it's clearly the right move.

The stats your posting aren't contradicting my point, so I don't think we're on the same page here. I'm not saying he's a bad possession player, that he doesn't have skill, or that he doesn't get/convert scoring chances himself.

I think Hayes is best suited for a line where he is the most skilled player on that line. Obviously he isn't in that situation right now, but I'm not convinced that he is hampering the success of other players at the moment.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I am just not crazy about breaking up the top line right now because Giroux doesn’t mesh with Hayes.