Last two Opens at St. Andrews were pretty weak winners for this course. Are we getting three in a row? Go back through the history of this course, and three in a row that aren't top 10-15 players of all time hasn't happened since the first few editions. Those weren't drawing the best golfers in the world, so it essentially hasn't happened ever. I'll go with history on this one. This is a course that historically yields the best champions of the sport.
That means we are probably down to Tiger, Phil, Rory, Jordan, Brooks, JT, DJ, Rahm, Scheffler, Morikawa, Bryson. You could throw one or two others in there and it's very possible a bunch of these guys never get to that status at sometime in their career, but I think all those guys would be considered as having somewhat realistic chances at that.
Tiger and Phil aren't happening. Not good enough anymore. The LIV guys, I could be wrong, but I don't see any of them contending. None of them are even in good form this year, so I think Brooks, DJ, and Bryson are out. Morikawa's form tells us he's out. He's been bad this year. Doubt he finds it this week.
That leaves us with Rory, Jordan, JT, Rahm, and Scheffler. While I wouldn't rule out any of the latter three, I think it'll more likely be one of the first two. Those would be my main picks. I'm biased, but I think Jordan's the favorite to win this week. Threw away last week's event and also last year's Open. Could say he threw away the last Open at this course also. All of this evens out, so I think it's probably his week. This is another great shot for Rory though.