MarchysNoseKnows
Big Hat No Cattle
- Feb 14, 2018
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Boston Bruins ‘22-‘23 Bruins roster and trade proposals discussions. V
- Thread starter Gee Wally
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LouJersey
Registered User
I believe his rave reviews were due to the blocks, but apparently his underlying analytics were not good.
It's funny, to the eye he seems like he is decent, but when you read all his other stuff he's terrible.
22Brad Park
Registered User
Me its Grizz.Size matters in playoffs and Forbert does alot of the dirty work.I know it's not popular here but he is weak on boards( my take) and come playoffs open ice vanishes.Bruins brass loves Grizz though he will be there.
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goldnblack
Registered User
- Jun 24, 2020
- 3,395
- 6,435
A
Yeah he's playing at exactly what I think the scouting report on him has always been, def top 4 caliber.
A top PK guy (given the surrounding cast...), good in his end, with a 33 pt season to his name. It is indeed a bit Seindenberg'esque, but he doesn't play that physical. Seids topped out at 32pts, granted in the lower scoring era. He's not even played 250 games yet.
I wasn't the hottest on Russian D, but then Provorov and Serg came along (even Zub). I'm open to being convinced.
Yeah he's playing at exactly what I think the scouting report on him has always been, def top 4 caliber.
A top PK guy (given the surrounding cast...), good in his end, with a 33 pt season to his name. It is indeed a bit Seindenberg'esque, but he doesn't play that physical. Seids topped out at 32pts, granted in the lower scoring era. He's not even played 250 games yet.
I wasn't the hottest on Russian D, but then Provorov and Serg came along (even Zub). I'm open to being convinced.
At the end of the day the front runner for the coach of the year sees value in him beyond the analytics, otherwise Reilly would be in the lineup over him.
Sorry to all the analytics guys, but I think I'll trust the guy who is in the dressing room, coaching this team to a historic start. If we can upgrade him with someone like Gavrikov I'll take it though.
MarchysNoseKnows
Big Hat No Cattle
- Feb 14, 2018
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That same coach has been sheltering the hell out of Forbort since he’s been back with over 50% of his starts in the offensive zone. Polar opposite of Cassidy last year.
Well I don't think he is terrible and I at the time of his signing wondered why they let Tinordi , but than again who am I............
Torterella would love the block shot mentality
ON3M4N
Ignores/60 = Elite
The reality is likely somewhere between then imo.
Bmessy
Registered User
If you can add a top 4 defenseman you do it. if he can play SHTOI even better. Forbort provides nice depth value with his SH skills. But is in no way irreplaceable given he's a liability 5v5.
I'd prefer to ride a heavy top 4, like those Tampa teams. and have the bottom pair be situational. we just happen to have one of the better situational skating dmen in Grzy and PK beast in Forbort
That said, I wouldn't be pissed going into the playoffs with what we have. I've seen Carlo go down in March too many times to not want to plan for it.
This is it ladies and gentleman. Sell the farm for a run and ride the wave.
Hedman-Sergchev-McDonagh-Cernak
or
McAvoy-Lindholm-Garikov?Chycrhun?Someone?-Carlo
I'd prefer to ride a heavy top 4, like those Tampa teams. and have the bottom pair be situational. we just happen to have one of the better situational skating dmen in Grzy and PK beast in Forbort
That said, I wouldn't be pissed going into the playoffs with what we have. I've seen Carlo go down in March too many times to not want to plan for it.
This is it ladies and gentleman. Sell the farm for a run and ride the wave.
Hedman-Sergchev-McDonagh-Cernak
or
McAvoy-Lindholm-Garikov?Chycrhun?Someone?-Carlo
That matches my eye test for sure- great on the PK, pretty rubbish 5 on 5.
Yep, I am aware he's using him sparingly aside from the PK, again an upgrade would be nice on him, but he still uses him over the other options, and imma trust Monty there.
My eye test on Forbort is that more often than not, when the Bruins get hemmed in their own zone, he is on the ice. It seems that way to me when I watch anyway. And he is pretty poor at transitions and getting the puck safely out. That said, look at the team record and is it really THAT big of a liability to have him out there? It doesn't seem to be hurting the club and he is a fantastic penalty killer.
I think it all comes down to having people who can play different roles...maybe Zboril/Reilly/Stralman could bring improved 5 on 5 play over him, but I think you risk having too many similar players on D if you play those guys over him.
LouJersey
Registered User
Thank you guys/gals for a nice afternoon of hockey comments. Great stuff.
Clint Eastwood
Eff the Habs
- Nov 11, 2018
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It's been years at this point, I really started to hear him mentioned in a positive light when we faced the Jackets in 2019.
DominicT
Registered User
Forbort gets zero pp time correct?
So he is always out with another defenceman correct?
So how do we know its Forbort he is sheltering? I haven't heard any of the coaches come out and say that.
ON3M4N
Ignores/60 = Elite
Compared to the rest of the defensive group, that still the 3rd lowest on the team since he returned.
Carlo - 35.2%
Lindholm - 45.9%
Forbort - 50.0%
McAvoy - 64.3%
Clifton - 65.8%
Zboril - 66.6%
Grzelcyk - 73.2%
I'd say someone like Clifton is more sheltered if you're using ozS% as a barometer and his against/60 numbers aren't much different than Forbort's. Funny enough Forbort's metrics are better away from Clifton and Clifton's metrics are also better away from Forbort. To me, they're both complementary type d-men that.
Just saying that list has more then a few players I consider to be pretty darn good. I mean look at the Rangers alone.
Has it been 26mil next year all along. I actually thought we were at 19 after max bonuses so about 23.5 gross. I confirmed your number from capfriendly but I’m wondering if this has changed.
RussellmaniaKW
Registered User
- Sep 15, 2004
- 19,701
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good luck getting people on either end of that spectrum to agree to this
The beauty of hockey discussion - 3 sets of eyes can see 3 widly different things
ON3M4N
Ignores/60 = Elite
I'd need more than luck lol. Personally I like to use both because they each have value. I look at Foligno last year for example. The eye test said he's cooked and people wanted him fired to the moon. His advanced numbers though were actually pretty solid last year. For me he wasn't as bad as he looked, but I don't think he was as good as the analytics said he was either. Fast-forward to this year he's playing more in the line than what we were hoping for when we signed him. The tough part either extreme of the eyes vs analytics debate is when people get a opinion on a player they want confirmation that they're right, so subconsciously they focus on the things that confirm their thinking and ignore events that don't.
I was an eye test guy when I didn't understand analytics. Once I started to understand them more I'll admit I was a heavily pro analytics guy. Like anything else though I found that balance was the key.
RussellmaniaKW
Registered User
- Sep 15, 2004
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fwiw, since we all sort of assume that Forbort's value as a PK guy offsets his 5v5 shortcomings, I was curious how effective he actually is on the PK, as-in does he actually prevent goals or does he just play a lot of PK minutes?
I first looked at NHL stats and did my own filtering. Basically tried to narrow down to the top 64 PK D (top 2 from each team roughly) by SH TOI per game limiting to guys with at least ~50 mins. Ultimately trimmed the list down to the top 69 by this criteria (good enough). Then just sorted by PP goals against per 60 and got this:
www.nhl.com
Forbort is has the 4th fewest PP goals against per 60 when you eliminate "noise" in the way I described. So he passes the sniff test with that approach.
I then looked at Moneypuck to try and corroborate what I'd found. limiting to D with 70+ mins of 4 on 5 TOI, Forbort is 10th in expected goals differential and 7th in actual goal differential. So he still passes the basic sniff test of "does this guy actually help prevent PP goals?".
This is all pretty rough and the cutoffs I chose are somewhat arbitrary, but my aim was to just focus on the guys who are more or less the top pair PK guys across the league. Obviously a ton of variables go into PK success (goaltending, forwards, defensive structure, competition). I'd argue that on the PK quality of competition plays a much bigger role b/c if a guy is rolling out on PK 1 almost 100% of the time then he's almost always defending against the best 5 guys on the other team. I don't have data to back up the importance of this but it seems like common sense to me.
So with that said, Forbort (or at least the Bruins with Forbort on the ice) is in fact getting good results on the PK where you can't glean as much from attempt data and actual goal differential matters more than anything.
Whether that's enough to justify having him in the lineup every night when he sucks at everything else is debatable, but it's important to understand the tradeoffs.
It's easy to say "just go get an upgrade" if all you look at is 5v5 metrics and SH TOI, but you have to be careful to get a PK guy who is actually good at the PK and not just eating a lot of PK minutes on a shitty team. When I say that's difficult to do my suspicion is that the number of guys who are available and affordable AND represent a clear upgrade is a pretty small list.
I first looked at NHL stats and did my own filtering. Basically tried to narrow down to the top 64 PK D (top 2 from each team roughly) by SH TOI per game limiting to guys with at least ~50 mins. Ultimately trimmed the list down to the top 69 by this criteria (good enough). Then just sorted by PP goals against per 60 and got this:
NHL Stats
The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.
www.nhl.com
Forbort is has the 4th fewest PP goals against per 60 when you eliminate "noise" in the way I described. So he passes the sniff test with that approach.
I then looked at Moneypuck to try and corroborate what I'd found. limiting to D with 70+ mins of 4 on 5 TOI, Forbort is 10th in expected goals differential and 7th in actual goal differential. So he still passes the basic sniff test of "does this guy actually help prevent PP goals?".
This is all pretty rough and the cutoffs I chose are somewhat arbitrary, but my aim was to just focus on the guys who are more or less the top pair PK guys across the league. Obviously a ton of variables go into PK success (goaltending, forwards, defensive structure, competition). I'd argue that on the PK quality of competition plays a much bigger role b/c if a guy is rolling out on PK 1 almost 100% of the time then he's almost always defending against the best 5 guys on the other team. I don't have data to back up the importance of this but it seems like common sense to me.
So with that said, Forbort (or at least the Bruins with Forbort on the ice) is in fact getting good results on the PK where you can't glean as much from attempt data and actual goal differential matters more than anything.
Whether that's enough to justify having him in the lineup every night when he sucks at everything else is debatable, but it's important to understand the tradeoffs.
It's easy to say "just go get an upgrade" if all you look at is 5v5 metrics and SH TOI, but you have to be careful to get a PK guy who is actually good at the PK and not just eating a lot of PK minutes on a shitty team. When I say that's difficult to do my suspicion is that the number of guys who are available and affordable AND represent a clear upgrade is a pretty small list.
Here's my opinion. The playoffs are all about match ups. I don't think there is any need to bring in an offensive player to replace anyone becuase matching up against the Bruins offense is a nightmare. I actually don't know how any team would do it over a 7 game series. Plus there is depth available in the organization. Unless there is a major injury between now and the trade deadline you keep it as is. You got guys who can move up and down the line-up, some guys in Prov that can play, including some veterans.
Defense is a different beast. There has been a lot of hoopla about Gryz's +/-, so if this is starting to happen again, how do you mitigate it? Well, from my opinion you play Gryz at home where home games are easier to match up your defensive pair against the opponents players. In my mind, you go out and get a Gavrikov or Shen or whoever and then you give Monte another chess piece. Not play instead of Gryz or Clifton but be able to deploy your skaters in a less risky manner, for road games or if something happens to Forbort. I mean, there is also a reliable dman in prov that I would be comfortable playing in the playoffs. I personally think there is no way they trade Reilly, because he is the perfect player to have around as insurance. I would also try to keep Smith around for the same reason. Plus, he and Foligno on the fourth line could be a serious mismatch against any team -- match up nightmares for other teams.
What I would try to do is to bank enough capsapce and trade Zboril for a more proven d-man. I like Zboril and hope he will become a good player but right now he is a roll of the dice every night. Could be good but could be a turnover machine and he won't be getting time to iron those issues out before trade deadline or the playoffs. It might be possible to fit a player with a 2.5M cap hit at the deadline?
tl;dr - Leave offense as is. Mitigate known issues on defense by trading Zboril + pick for proven vet. Monte has chess pieces to make life difficult for opponents.
Defense is a different beast. There has been a lot of hoopla about Gryz's +/-, so if this is starting to happen again, how do you mitigate it? Well, from my opinion you play Gryz at home where home games are easier to match up your defensive pair against the opponents players. In my mind, you go out and get a Gavrikov or Shen or whoever and then you give Monte another chess piece. Not play instead of Gryz or Clifton but be able to deploy your skaters in a less risky manner, for road games or if something happens to Forbort. I mean, there is also a reliable dman in prov that I would be comfortable playing in the playoffs. I personally think there is no way they trade Reilly, because he is the perfect player to have around as insurance. I would also try to keep Smith around for the same reason. Plus, he and Foligno on the fourth line could be a serious mismatch against any team -- match up nightmares for other teams.
What I would try to do is to bank enough capsapce and trade Zboril for a more proven d-man. I like Zboril and hope he will become a good player but right now he is a roll of the dice every night. Could be good but could be a turnover machine and he won't be getting time to iron those issues out before trade deadline or the playoffs. It might be possible to fit a player with a 2.5M cap hit at the deadline?
tl;dr - Leave offense as is. Mitigate known issues on defense by trading Zboril + pick for proven vet. Monte has chess pieces to make life difficult for opponents.
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