Analytics in Hockey

This is the first part of an intended series of threads revisiting Hockey-Reference.com's three in-house attempts to contextualize player contributions: adjusted statistics, goals created, and point shares. Adjusted Statistics, According to Hockey-Reference.com As described above, the...

I was going to wait a bit, but I see that other projections are already coming out so I feel like doing mine. I started a thread about this last year but I ran into a myriad of problems. First, I didn't do a good job keeping rosters up to date, I changed jobs a few times and moved back to...

I am new to advanced stats but these are some of the best resources I have found so far. JFresh's Patreon: $5 a month. Includes Player and Team Cards and Tableau Workbooks that use Patrick Bacon's WAR model and other statistics. Link: https://www.patreon.com/jfreshhockey/posts Explanation of...

Some of you may remember my past postings about a NHL version of baseball`s WAR. At those times, I had only attempted to replicate it for forwards. I have finally got around to completing it for all positions, dating back to the 2007-08 season (the first year we have shot attempt data). I...

The numbers for every available season have been crunched... here are the top 25 most valuable forwards by WAR since the start of the 07-08 season: (DGS= defensive goals saved, FO=faceoffs, PD= penalty differential, rep= accounts for difference between average and replacement level) player GP...

WARNING: The following contains material consisting of the statistical construct Wins Above Replacement. If such a topic is not your cup of tea, there are countless other threads to spend your time perusing. If you are still reading there is a decent chance you have seen me ramble on about...

Hello, Yesterday I started to wonder whether some teams in the NHL might get their shots blocked more often than others due to their style of play. Do any teams teams come to mind? Hypothesis A: An intuitive perspective could be to look at it this way: The teams that shoot the most get more...

INTRODUCTION As promised, I've done another analysis of secondary assists. All of the previous studies done in this area, including mine, have looked at the data using the same conceptual approach - examining year-over-year correlations. In other words - does knowing how many secondary assists...

After scoring 32 points last season, Calgary Flames centre Mark Jankowski has scored zero points in 27 games so far this season. That sucks for him, but plenty of players have 0 points so far. However, he also has not been on the ice for a single goal his team has scored all season. Cristoffer...

First off, let's all remind what PDO is: From Wikipedia In other words, PDO is the sum of shooting percentage (the number of goals scored divided by the number of shots for) and save percentage (the number of shots saved divided by the number of shots against). Usually, PDO is evaluated at...

Round 2. I'll start off this time by clarifying that the specific rankings aren't the be all end all. They are made just using WAR. It is a 1.0 template list that could be further refined with the eye test and additional data. That being said, here is the top 10: McDavid Crosby Stamkos Matthews...

RankPlayerTeamGoals Allowed Per Expected Goal (Average) 1John GibsonANA0.85 2Sergei BobrovskyCBJ0.88 3Philipp GrubauerCOL/WSH0.89 4Corey CrawfordCHI0.93 5Ryan MillerANA/VAN0.95 6Ben BishopDAL/T.B/L.A0.95 7Frederik AndersenTOR0.95 8Matt MurrayPIT0.95 9Marc-Andre FleuryVGK/PIT0.96 10Braden...

This is a standard feature on my site; although this represents the regular season, I had to wait until the Stanley Cup concluded because the power ratings (and therefore the average strengths) change during the playoffs. These are for the 2018-19 NHL regular season. AVGOSTR - average opponent...

With the recent discussion about RFAs and the number of teams that seem to have a need to move players with salary, I wanted to see if it was possible to create a way in which one could estimate the cost to trade a player with negative value or an unwanted contract. To begin, I decided that all...

Its maybe not the most interesting data, but I did a little study looking at how likely it is for a team finishing at a certain position one year, to finish at any given position the next year (its based on all seasons post-lockout). For me this was interesting because I was wondering how often...

Hey folks, I recently ran a study on home ice advantage in the playoffs dating back to 2016. I posted it to a new website (link in my bio) as a blog-style article with additional info related to sports betting. I figure stat junkies might be interested in this whether or not they are gamblers...

First, I apologize if (a) this is common knowledge; or (b) someone else has already done this. I'm pretty new to hockey stats, though I've been a fan of the game for a long time. I searched, but didn't find something similar. It seems to me that short-handed goals ought to count as far as a...

I have been wanting to gather all the boxscore data throughout the history of the NHL for a long time now but the data has never been readily available until recently. It is now available through the NHL statsapi but I hate computers and suck at using them (despite being a product manager in...

name(A), current oiSH%(B), career oiSH%(C), current/career oiSH%(D), games played(E), total points(F), PP+SH points(G), EV points(H), EV points based on career oiSH%(I), predicted PP+SH points(J), predicted EV points per game(K), predicted total points after 82 games(L) Note that the table...

As someone who is into advanced stats, I find Carolina Hurricanes absolutely fascinating. Year after year they under-perform their underlying metrics by a ludicrous amount. This season they have cartoonishly good, 07-08 Detroit Red Wings level shot and shot quality numbers yet their actual goal...