Some of you may remember my past postings about a NHL version of baseball`s WAR. At those times, I had only attempted to replicate it for forwards. I have finally got around to completing it for all positions, dating back to the 2007-08 season (the first year we have shot attempt data).
I really have no interest in advanced stats preaching, so if this type of thing isn`t your cup of tea, no hard feelings. There are some good games on today, countless trade speculation threads and the weather is getting decent.. you don`t have to spend your time here.
For those curious, I made four write ups going over the goals and process of creating these stats, plus a look at some of the most relevant results and a few tests to see how effective the numbers are:
Goals for Wins Above Replacement and Things It Can Assist
Part 2: The Stat
Part 3: Results
Part 4: Effectiveness
For those just wanting a snapshot, here are the top career performers:
Top 9 Forwards
Top 6 Defenseman
WAR PAR GP SIDNEY.CROSBY 36.7 82 824 ALEX.OVECHKIN 31.5 70.3 989 EVGENI.MALKIN 30.9 69 829 PATRICK.KANE 30.2 67.4 973 PATRICE.BERGERON 27.5 61.4 860 JONATHAN.TOEWS 27.3 61 943 ANZE.KOPITAR 26.7 59.6 1001 JOE.THORNTON 26.7 59.6 964 PAVEL.DATSYUK 25 55.9 590
Top 3 Goalies
WAR PAR GP ERIK.KARLSSON 24.2 54.1 736 KRIS.LETANG 21.8 48.6 801 DUNCAN.KEITH 21.6 48.3 975 MARK.GIORDANO 21 47 838 VICTOR.HEDMAN 20.3 45.3 762 RYAN.SUTER 20.1 44.9 989
Top performers as of Mar.14th (roughly halfway point) of this season:
WAR PAR GP HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 31.4 70 764 CAREY.PRICE 20.8 46.4 682 ROBERTO.LUONGO 20.2 45.1 627
A couple rough guides for how to interpret this data:
WAR PAR CONNOR.MCDAVID (EDM) 2 4.4 ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY (T.B) 1.9 4.3 AUSTON.MATTHEWS (TOR) 1.4 3.2 ALEKSANDER.BARKOV (FLA) 1.4 3.2 MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY (VGK) 1.4 3.2 MARK.STONE (VGK) 1.4 3.1 LEON.DRAISAITL (EDM) 1.4 3.1
DOs DONTs -look at career totals when judging past draft classes, trades, etc. as a one size fits all, objective ranker -take the results as gospel
-piggybacking on this, don`t have too much faith in the decimal places. Player A having 0.2 more WAR than player B is far from conclusive evidence that player A is a more valuable player
-check out recent numbers to determine whose play/ reputation has the numbers to back it up, identify possible upgrades for your team, find the next undervalued asset -fail to consider sample sizes -take the current season`s numbers into account come award season -lose the motivation to ask what other factors could be influencing a particular players numbers (if you have the time.. don`t miss puck drop)The complete results can be retrieved downloaded here: Smart Hockey Simple
WAR (per 82 games) PAR ROLE 3.5+ 7.8+ Hart Finalist, Norris/ Vezina Winner 1.8+ 4+ All-star 0.8+ 1.8+ Top 6 forward, top 3 defenseman, 1A goalie 0.2+ 0.4+ Contributing depth 0 0 Replacement level/ dressing room DJ/ decent player being asked to do too much
I fully acknowledge that this is all amateur hour, but I think it can still be useful when utilized correctly.
Feel free to use any of the data, so long as you source it and send me a link if you do any analysis in the future... always interested in that sort of stuff. I personally plan to update this with posts looking at the relationships between WAR/ PAR and cap hits, draft choices, trades, age curves, etc.