Wins/ Points Above Replacement Results

By NHL WAR · Apr 11, 2021 · Updated Apr 12, 2021
Rating:
3/5,
  1. NHL WAR
    Some of you may remember my past postings about a NHL version of baseball`s WAR. At those times, I had only attempted to replicate it for forwards. I have finally got around to completing it for all positions, dating back to the 2007-08 season (the first year we have shot attempt data).

    I really have no interest in advanced stats preaching, so if this type of thing isn`t your cup of tea, no hard feelings. There are some good games on today, countless trade speculation threads and the weather is getting decent.. you don`t have to spend your time here.

    For those curious, I made four write ups going over the goals and process of creating these stats, plus a look at some of the most relevant results and a few tests to see how effective the numbers are:

    Goals for Wins Above Replacement and Things It Can Assist
    Part 2: The Stat
    Part 3: Results
    Part 4: Effectiveness

    For those just wanting a snapshot, here are the top career performers:


    Top 9 Forwards
    WARPARGP
    SIDNEY.CROSBY 36.782824
    ALEX.OVECHKIN 31.570.3989
    EVGENI.MALKIN 30.969829
    PATRICK.KANE 30.267.4973
    PATRICE.BERGERON 27.561.4860
    JONATHAN.TOEWS 27.361943
    ANZE.KOPITAR 26.759.61001
    JOE.THORNTON 26.759.6964
    PAVEL.DATSYUK 2555.9590
    Top 6 Defenseman
    WARPARGP
    ERIK.KARLSSON24.254.1736
    KRIS.LETANG21.848.6801
    DUNCAN.KEITH21.648.3975
    MARK.GIORDANO2147838
    VICTOR.HEDMAN20.345.3762
    RYAN.SUTER20.144.9989
    Top 3 Goalies

    WARPARGP
    HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 31.470764
    CAREY.PRICE 20.846.4682
    ROBERTO.LUONGO 20.245.1627
    Top performers as of Mar.14th (roughly halfway point) of this season:

    WARPAR
    CONNOR.MCDAVID (EDM)24.4
    ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY (T.B)1.94.3
    AUSTON.MATTHEWS (TOR)1.43.2
    ALEKSANDER.BARKOV (FLA)1.43.2
    MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY (VGK)1.43.2
    MARK.STONE (VGK)1.43.1
    LEON.DRAISAITL (EDM)1.43.1
    A couple rough guides for how to interpret this data:

    DOsDONTs
    -look at career totals when judging past draft classes, trades, etc. as a one size fits all, objective ranker-take the results as gospel
    -piggybacking on this, don`t have too much faith in the decimal places. Player A having 0.2 more WAR than player B is far from conclusive evidence that player A is a more valuable player
    -check out recent numbers to determine whose play/ reputation has the numbers to back it up, identify possible upgrades for your team, find the next undervalued asset-fail to consider sample sizes
    -take the current season`s numbers into account come award season-lose the motivation to ask what other factors could be influencing a particular players numbers (if you have the time.. don`t miss puck drop)
    WAR (per 82 games)PARROLE
    3.5+7.8+Hart Finalist, Norris/ Vezina Winner
    1.8+4+All-star
    0.8+1.8+Top 6 forward, top 3 defenseman, 1A goalie
    0.2+0.4+Contributing depth
    00Replacement level/ dressing room DJ/ decent player being asked to do too much
    The complete results can be retrieved downloaded here: Smart Hockey Simple


    I fully acknowledge that this is all amateur hour, but I think it can still be useful when utilized correctly.

    Feel free to use any of the data, so long as you source it and send me a link if you do any analysis in the future... always interested in that sort of stuff. I personally plan to update this with posts looking at the relationships between WAR/ PAR and cap hits, draft choices, trades, age curves, etc.

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