Some of you may remember my past postings about a NHL version of baseball`s WAR. At those times, I had only attempted to replicate it for forwards. I have finally got around to completing it for all positions, dating back to the 2007-08 season (the first year we have shot attempt data).
I really have no interest in advanced stats preaching, so if this type of thing isn`t your cup of tea, no hard feelings. There are some good games on today, countless trade speculation threads and the weather is getting decent.. you don`t have to spend your time here.
For those curious, I made four write ups going over the goals and process of creating these stats, plus a look at some of the most relevant results and a few tests to see how effective the numbers are:
Goals for Wins Above Replacement and Things It Can Assist
Part 2: The Stat
Part 3: Results
Part 4: Effectiveness
For those just wanting a snapshot, here are the top career performers:
Top 9 Forwards
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]Top 6 Defenseman
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]Top 3 Goalies
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]Top performers as of Mar.14th (roughly halfway point) of this season:
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]A couple rough guides for how to interpret this data:
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]The complete results can be retrieved downloaded here: Smart Hockey Simple
I fully acknowledge that this is all amateur hour, but I think it can still be useful when utilized correctly.
Feel free to use any of the data, so long as you source it and send me a link if you do any analysis in the future... always interested in that sort of stuff. I personally plan to update this with posts looking at the relationships between WAR/ PAR and cap hits, draft choices, trades, age curves, etc.
I really have no interest in advanced stats preaching, so if this type of thing isn`t your cup of tea, no hard feelings. There are some good games on today, countless trade speculation threads and the weather is getting decent.. you don`t have to spend your time here.
For those curious, I made four write ups going over the goals and process of creating these stats, plus a look at some of the most relevant results and a few tests to see how effective the numbers are:
Goals for Wins Above Replacement and Things It Can Assist
Part 2: The Stat
Part 3: Results
Part 4: Effectiveness
For those just wanting a snapshot, here are the top career performers:
Top 9 Forwards
| WAR | PAR | GP | ||
| SIDNEY.CROSBY | 36.7 | 82 | 824 | |
| ALEX.OVECHKIN | 31.5 | 70.3 | 989 | |
| EVGENI.MALKIN | 30.9 | 69 | 829 | |
| PATRICK.KANE | 30.2 | 67.4 | 973 | |
| PATRICE.BERGERON | 27.5 | 61.4 | 860 | |
| JONATHAN.TOEWS | 27.3 | 61 | 943 | |
| ANZE.KOPITAR | 26.7 | 59.6 | 1001 | |
| JOE.THORNTON | 26.7 | 59.6 | 964 | |
| PAVEL.DATSYUK | 25 | 55.9 | 590 |
| WAR | PAR | GP | ||
| ERIK.KARLSSON | 24.2 | 54.1 | 736 | |
| KRIS.LETANG | 21.8 | 48.6 | 801 | |
| DUNCAN.KEITH | 21.6 | 48.3 | 975 | |
| MARK.GIORDANO | 21 | 47 | 838 | |
| VICTOR.HEDMAN | 20.3 | 45.3 | 762 | |
| RYAN.SUTER | 20.1 | 44.9 | 989 |
| WAR | PAR | GP | ||
| HENRIK.LUNDQVIST | 31.4 | 70 | 764 | |
| CAREY.PRICE | 20.8 | 46.4 | 682 | |
| ROBERTO.LUONGO | 20.2 | 45.1 | 627 |
| WAR | PAR | |
| CONNOR.MCDAVID (EDM) | 2 | 4.4 |
| ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY (T.B) | 1.9 | 4.3 |
| AUSTON.MATTHEWS (TOR) | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| ALEKSANDER.BARKOV (FLA) | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY (VGK) | 1.4 | 3.2 |
| MARK.STONE (VGK) | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| LEON.DRAISAITL (EDM) | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| DOs | DONTs |
| -look at career totals when judging past draft classes, trades, etc. as a one size fits all, objective ranker | -take the results as gospel -piggybacking on this, don`t have too much faith in the decimal places. Player A having 0.2 more WAR than player B is far from conclusive evidence that player A is a more valuable player |
| -check out recent numbers to determine whose play/ reputation has the numbers to back it up, identify possible upgrades for your team, find the next undervalued asset | -fail to consider sample sizes |
| -take the current season`s numbers into account come award season | -lose the motivation to ask what other factors could be influencing a particular players numbers (if you have the time.. don`t miss puck drop) |
| WAR (per 82 games) | PAR | ROLE |
| 3.5+ | 7.8+ | Hart Finalist, Norris/ Vezina Winner |
| 1.8+ | 4+ | All-star |
| 0.8+ | 1.8+ | Top 6 forward, top 3 defenseman, 1A goalie |
| 0.2+ | 0.4+ | Contributing depth |
| 0 | 0 | Replacement level/ dressing room DJ/ decent player being asked to do too much |
I fully acknowledge that this is all amateur hour, but I think it can still be useful when utilized correctly.
Feel free to use any of the data, so long as you source it and send me a link if you do any analysis in the future... always interested in that sort of stuff. I personally plan to update this with posts looking at the relationships between WAR/ PAR and cap hits, draft choices, trades, age curves, etc.
