Blue Jays Discussion: Youth Movement (Pompey, Norris among Sept call-ups)

[canucksfan]

you obviously dont understand how baseball works if you dont think 3.5 games with like, 17 left, isnt a big margin.

Weve played .527 ball for 130 games, so we'll probably play .527 for the final 17 which is a 9-8? type record. Are all the teams ahead of us going 5-11 to end the year? doubtful. Also have you looked at the schedules of teams? KC and i believe Detroit both have pathetically weak schedules.

Jays would have to go at least 12-5 probably even more. M's have a really hard schedule. M's lay the Angles 7 times, A's 3 times Astros 3 times and Jays 4 times. A's are dropping and playing very poor baseball.

Jays have to beat the M's 4-0 or 3-1.

 

[The Nemesis]

you obviously dont understand how baseball works if you dont think 3.5 games with like, 17 left, isnt a big margin.

Weve played .527 ball for 130 games, so we'll probably play .527 for the final 17 which is a 9-8? type record. Are all the teams ahead of us going 5-11 to end the year? doubtful. Also have you looked at the schedules of teams? KC and i believe Detroit both have pathetically weak schedules.

It's not that simple. The Jays haven't been a team to play at the steady clip of their record all season. They've gone on wildly disparate swings of sustained success or failure and it's ultimately middled to its current .527 win%

What's more likely is that the team continues that trend, which means they could go 14-3 or 15-2, or collapse in the coming series and go 4-13 or 5-12. If they stay hot like they've been lately, the road gets easier. It's still difficult/unlikely they can pull it off, but that 3.5 margin is not as wide of a gulf as you would make it seem. Or, of course, they flounder and finish like 5-6 games back.

 

[Swervin81]

you obviously dont understand how baseball works if you dont think 3.5 games with like, 17 left, isnt a big margin.

Weve played .527 ball for 130 games, so we'll probably play .527 for the final 17 which is a 9-8? type record. Are all the teams ahead of us going 5-11 to end the year? doubtful. Also have you looked at the schedules of teams? KC and i believe Detroit both have pathetically weak schedules.

In 2009, the Tigers had a 3 game lead on the Twins with 4 games left... pretty sure you know how the story goes.

 

[dredeye]

I just noticed browsing Jays stats that Norris got charged with a hit against the other night when the bad throw was made in the 9th, was that not an error? That had error writen all over it lol, pretty routine play, would have easily be out had the throw not bounced before it got to 1st, weird call indeed. It doesn't matter but I was under the impression that Norris had not given up a hit yet, not that it matters.

I was listening to the game on the radio and they said it was a hit even with the throwing error. Apparently what they were saying is because he had to charge in on the ball it made it a hit even though it's a play he should have made. I guess it's one of those technicality things.

 

[hoglund]

you obviously dont understand how baseball works if you dont think 3.5 games with like, 17 left, isnt a big margin.

Weve played .527 ball for 130 games, so we'll probably play .527 for the final 17 which is a 9-8? type record. Are all the teams ahead of us going 5-11 to end the year? doubtful. Also have you looked at the schedules of teams? KC and i believe Detroit both have pathetically weak schedules.

I'm not sure how old you are, but do you remember the Jays in 1987 had a 4 game lead with 5 games left and got swept by Detroit and Detroit went on to the playoffs. 3.5 games back with 17 games is better than those odds, so anything is possible. I agree the chances are slim, but by no means is this season over, but realistically they can only afford to lose 2 maybe 3 games, which would give them 92 wins, which is how many wins were needed last year for the wild card, but it also depends on the others, if the Mariners and Tigers continue to lose, then the Jays could afford more losses. I think they need to win the rest of the series, but who knows.

 

[topched]

Oakland-CWS just got underway for anyone interested

Gotta like the chances for Oakland to drop one here, Sale vs Kazmir

 

[King Mapes]

It's not that simple. The Jays haven't been a team to play at the steady clip of their record all season. They've gone on wildly disparate swings of sustained success or failure and it's ultimately middled to its current .527 win%

What's more likely is that the team continues that trend, which means they could go 14-3 or 15-2, or collapse in the coming series and go 4-13 or 5-12. If they stay hot like they've been lately, the road gets easier. It's still difficult/unlikely they can pull it off, but that 3.5 margin is not as wide of a gulf as you would make it seem. Or, of course, they flounder and finish like 5-6 games back.

I agree here. We are incredibly streaky. We have been a .527 ball club, we've been a .700 ball club for a couple months and then a 350 ball club for months. But we are a different team with Edwin healthy.

It's also worth noting we leapfrogged teams which increases your chances greatly

 

[canucksfan]

1-0 Sox. Sale is pitching great.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

10-2 in past 12 games. Keep it going boys. Rays are next to face the juggernaut.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

10-2 in past 12 games. Keep it going boys. Rays are next to face the juggernaut.

Is this a parody?

 

[Paladin2799]

I agree here. We are incredibly streaky. We have been a .527 ball club, we've been a .700 ball club for a couple months and then a 350 ball club for months. But we are a different team with Edwin healthy.

It's also worth noting we leapfrogged teams which increases your chances greatly

Frankly, I think our overall offense on our team is very weak. It was obvious when edwin went down and our offense dries up. Bautista gets walked and then left on base when the bottom half of the lineups get out.

We need more support from our lineup in the 5-9 ranges. our top4 is solid, the rest is a giant black hole.

 

[Eyedea]

Chi sox won

 

[dredeye]

Frankly, I think our overall offense on our team is very weak. It was obvious when edwin went down and our offense dries up. Bautista gets walked and then left on base when the bottom half of the lineups get out.

We need more support from our lineup in the 5-9 ranges. our top4 is solid, the rest is a giant black hole.

Actually Lind, Lawrie and encarnacion went down. That's a lot of production gone.

 

[King Mapes]

Frankly, I think our overall offense on our team is very weak. It was obvious when edwin went down and our offense dries up. Bautista gets walked and then left on base when the bottom half of the lineups get out.

We need more support from our lineup in the 5-9 ranges. our top4 is solid, the rest is a giant black hole.

I think we have a good 1-6 when healthy but Melky is out now. Can't ask much more from your catcher. But ya when Edwin was out Bautista is much easier to pitch to.

 

[topched]

Frankly, I think our overall offense on our team is very weak. It was obvious when edwin went down and our offense dries up. Bautista gets walked and then left on base when the bottom half of the lineups get out.

We need more support from our lineup in the 5-9 ranges. our top4 is solid, the rest is a giant black hole.

I truly think people need to look at the lineups of other teams lineups to get a realistic idea of what it looks like. There's not a team in the AL that doesn't have at least 2 black hole/platoon type of guys at the bottom of their lineup.

1-5 with Lind/Navarro our lineup is elite. And the situation at the bottom with Pillar/Gose/Goins is fine, provided were getting well above avg defense.

The real issue is the 6/7 spots... The fact that we didn't have Lawrie for 3/4 of the year and bad Rasmus hurt a lot. It hurts when you've got the likes of Kawasaki/Tolleson getting regular ABs forcing your true 8-9 hitters to move up.

As for the EE injury, there's nothing you can do about that. He's a top 10/15 hitter in all of baseball, no team is able to recover from an extended injury to a player of that level

 

[Suntouchable13]

Frankly, I think our overall offense on our team is very weak. It was obvious when edwin went down and our offense dries up. Bautista gets walked and then left on base when the bottom half of the lineups get out.

We need more support from our lineup in the 5-9 ranges. our top4 is solid, the rest is a giant black hole.

What? Take a look at our offensive numbers. They all are in the top 5 of mlb. Offense is not a problem at all.

 

[The Nemesis]

Frankly, I think our overall offense on our team is very weak. It was obvious when edwin went down and our offense dries up. Bautista gets walked and then left on base when the bottom half of the lineups get out.

We need more support from our lineup in the 5-9 ranges. our top4 is solid, the rest is a giant black hole.

3rd in HR
5th in Runs Scored
5th in Runs Batted In
17th in BABIP (so no crazy luck factoring in here)
4th in Batting Average (even though I don't like it, it's illustrative of something you'll see in a minute)
6th in OBP (this is where AVG comes in. It shows this isn't a team that's a bunch of walk-taking HR hitters who sacrifice regular hitting)]
3rd in OPS
3rd in wOBA
4th in wRC+
4th in the offensive component of Fangraphs' WAR calculation.


By however you want to measure it, the Blue Jays offence has been very good when you look at the whole season. The team's issues have generally been that they can't seem to get the pitching and the offence good at the same time for longer than a few short stretches. When the pitching is there, the offence sputters. When the offence is on, the pitching falters. The glut of injuries in mid-season to the core of the offence didn't help, coupled with Colby Rasmus' transformation into the new JP Arencibia at the plate (which couldv'e stabilized things while Lind/Encarnacion/Lawrie were all out)

 

[Eyedea]

Add in the fact that one of those teams that have been ahead of us offensively play half their games in the most hitter friendly park.

edit: nvm, looks like the Rockies offense took a turn for the worst lately. Their wOBA is still first though and they have the highest BABIP.

 

[theaub]

Jays need to go 13-4 probably

- sweep Tampa
- win 2 of 3 in Baltimore
- split in New York
- sweep Baltimore
- win 2 of 3 against Baltimore

That easy

 

[Mach85]

Nice article on Stroman from TSN (what?):

http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_macarthur/?id=461391

 

[DatsyukianDeke*]

1-0 Sox. Sale is pitching great.

Yea, because he's the best pitcher in the AL?

 

[Eyedea]

Yea, because he's the best pitcher in the AL?

They don't call Felix the king for nothing

 

[canucksfan]

Brian McCann will likely finish with an OPS lower than .700

 

[The Nemesis]

Brian McCann will likely finish with an OPS lower than .700

Worth every penny!

 

[canucksfan]

Worth every penny!

Had no idea Gardner was their best hitter this year.