Your Plan Going Forward

[Durkin67]

A lot of nonsense in this thread. Stuff like trading Clarkson. Not gonna happen. How about people present their plan with the following assumptions.

No one wants Kessel, Phanuef, Clarkson, Lupul, Reimer and Bozak due to their cap hits and limited NTC's.
Because this core is good but not good enough assume that you'll be picking around 8-14 every season.

Now let's see some realistic plans.

EDM wants a legit 2C. Bozak or Kadri would be ideal.
EDM wants a goalie upgrade. Reimer fits the bill.
Lupul to a contender, provided you retain a piece of that cap hit. They need healthy bodies on the wing. Paul Martin isn't going to stay around. Lupul for Martin and a either a pick or a prospect is pretty reasonable...

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Here's how I envision things unfolding over the rest of this season, the off-season, and over the next season (short term).

Leafs continue to play .500 hockey through January, mounts a surge in February and March, and sit comfortably in the 1st wildcard spot by the end of April, making the playoffs and facing off against, likely, Tampa Bay.

Leafs split games in TB, and go on to win a surprising round 1 match-up in 6 games.

They face probably Washington or NYR in round two, and lose in 6 games.

During the off-season, the Leafs hire Mike Babcock as their new head coach.

Babcock begins his process of evaluating players during the off-season, doing a meet-and-greet with the players and some key prospects. The trip through Massachusetts is skipped, which strikes up a media firestorm of speculation that Kessel is going to get traded.

Sure enough, during the Draft 2015, the Leafs ship Kessel off to a western conference team, bringing back a top defensive prospect and a 1st in 2015 (it's a 18-21 pick). Not sure which team, but one of STL, NSH, SJS, or ANA would be my guesses.

Lupul also gets moved out. Leafs re-sign Franson, Bernier, Kadri, Winnik, Santorelli, and Holzer.

Everyone expecting Phaneuf to be jettisoned are puzzled that he is still on the team when training camp opens up.

Surprise addition in training camp is Broll nabbing a roster spot out of the gate. Of course, the biggest surprise is moving Gardiner up to LW, à la Brent Burns/Dustin Byfuglien.

Game day roster is as follows:
van Riemsdyk - Kadri - Holland
Gardiner - Bozak - Clarkson
Winnik - Santorelli - Broll
Panik - Komarov - Leivo

Phaneuf - Franson
Rielly - Robidas
Polak - Defensive prospect acquired in Kessel deal
Holzer

Bernier
Reimer

Under a new coach with a possession-based mindset, and a renewed commitment to defensive hockey, the Leafs become one of the top possession teams in the NHL, with the Kadri line being one of the top in the league. The Winnik/Santorelli/Broll line becomes one of the top shut-down lines in the league, amassing a crushing +85 +/- rating collectively.

Holland posts a career-high 25 goals and 30 assists as a winger on the top scoring line.

Fans are ecstatic and see the Leafs go on to post solid finishes over the next 3 seasons, placing 3rd in the division in each year, and making it to either the second round (twice) or conference final (once) during that span.

Under the new regime, draft picks flourish, and the Leafs make major breakthroughs in forensic analytics, and break-open the moneypuck system on an unprecedented scale.

LOVE IT!!!

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

EDM wants a legit 2C. Bozak or Kadri would be ideal.
EDM wants a goalie upgrade. Reimer fits the bill.
Lupul to a contender, provided you retain a piece of that cap hit. They need healthy bodies on the wing. Paul Martin isn't going to stay around. Lupul for Martin and a either a pick or a prospect is pretty reasonable...

Not enough depth at C to trade Kadri or Bozak, they are both here for at least 2 years. Lupul does unfortunately look like he will be the one traded should management make room for Franson and can't unload Clarkson

 

[Durkin67]

Dangle did a great video recently about leadership and how there's no real definition of way to quantify leadership. These guys have been competing there whole lives too make it to the NHL, the whole compete level bit is just media BS, the problems with this team are Personel being 1 Dimensional and a system not playing to the teams strength. Some diversity and a coaching change will make a great difference.

Dangle can't qualify compete. who is he, Moses coming down the mountain? every time the Leafs lose, the main complaint is lack of compete. Kadri has always had a rep for turning it on and turning it off, not playing hard enough. I don't recall anyone criticising Schenn for the same.

Compete isn't a media generated catch phrase. Its the difference between skill and success.

Another coaching change...yup, because that has worked out so well in the past...facepalm implied.

 

[Durkin67]

Not enough depth at C to trade Kadri or Bozak, they are both here for at least 2 years. Lupul does unfortunately look like he will be the one traded should management make room for Franson and can't unload Clarkson

I don't know, it depends on whether Gauthier assumes the three hole next year, and if there are legs to the ongoing O Reilly chatter. Holland is rounding into a respectable 2C option as well. And theres that Nylander kid who many suggest will be ready next fall.

 

[PanniniClaus]

There is no way Gauthier goes to the Nhl without at least a year as a Marlie if not two.

 

[jcfogerty]

yes because the teams would be out of business due to mismanagement.

i love when people use the logic that evil management doesnt care. These people are used to winning in life, they don't want to lose. And they LOVE money, which they would get much more of If the team was successful. But sure Johnny 6 Pack who comes home and watches the Leafs on TV cares more about building a successful team than the people who's jobs are riding on their success or failure.

honestly people, get a clue.

I didn't say anything about management.

 

[Durkin67]

There is no way Gauthier goes to the Nhl without at least a year as a Marlie if not two.

It wouldn't shock me either way.

 

[Bomber0104]

Fire every manager in the Leafs organization except for Dubas.

Publicly shame and trade Dion Phaneuf

Publicly shame and trade Phil Kessel

Publicly shame and demote David Clarkson to the minors

Trade but do not publicly shame Lupul , Franson, JVR , Gardiner, and Kadri

Rebuild.

For 4-5 years.

Bozak is on thin ice...as is Rielly in this plan.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Dangle can't qualify compete. who is he, Moses coming down the mountain? every time the Leafs lose, the main complaint is lack of compete. Kadri has always had a rep for turning it on and turning it off, not playing hard enough. I don't recall anyone criticising Schenn for the same.

Compete isn't a media generated catch phrase. Its the difference between skill and success.

Another coaching change...yup, because that has worked out so well in the past...facepalm implied.

I don't know, it depends on whether Gauthier assumes the three hole next year, and if there are legs to the ongoing O Reilly chatter. Holland is rounding into a respectable 2C option as well. And theres that Nylander kid who many suggest will be ready next fall.

Wilson had lost the room, the next coaching change is purely systemic. The evidence has been presented enough, under Carlyle shot attempts have dropped significantly and the leafs offensive pressure has toned down, he got a second chance but we still see relatively the same system out there with very minor improvements.

Roster wise yes trades do need to happen, but at the same time just like Grabo, MacArthur and Kulemin we can't let valuable assets walk for nothing while major holes still need to be filled. So you don't let Franson walk, you try trading Clarkson first as he is the most easily replaced player on the team with Nylander, Levio, Panik, Kozun and Broll all ready to step in the next season. Gardiner has massive potential still but time is running out and Percy is ready to step in too. A coaching change could result in a system Gardiner can flourish under making Phanuef expendable. However can the same be said about the centre position? Even if Nylander is on the team next year do you give him a top 6 role from the start? No that's how you end up ruining a prospect. Let him have the easy mins in a position he can succeed in. As for the Goat, his skating needs alot of work. He may become a good 3C but it won't be quick, and I doubt we see him in the NHL in the next 2 seasons. So are Bozak and Kadri replaceable, no.

Now all this said, let's say the leafs do a swap for ROR. Well if your Sakic and you have a guy who is "quickly becoming one of the best two-way forwards in the game" (while playing on one of the worst possession teams in the league) are you going to trade that for anyone on the leafs team at this moment? Kadri? well you've already stated he's better than him. Maybe Gardiner as back end offense is something the team is lacking. Well if he keeps playing like he is then probably not. Phanuef maybe? Well he hast a LNTC so maybe he doesn't even want to come here. the talk about ROR is just talk, unless Gardiner turns it on but even then, ROR is coming off a $6m contract and if Gardiner at 4.05 is going and Phanuef at $7m is staying then for the leafs they still have issues with the cap. so now you've sacrificed something on defence, plus probably a prospect like Percy, Finn or even Loov to sweeten the pot due to Gardiners lack of consistancy, and still need to move out one of Lupul Kadri Bozak Clarkson just to have enough room for 18 skaters signed.

So numerically it doesn't work. ROR has had contract negotian and ego problems in the past. Has shown he isn't entirely a "team player" as he let Landeskog getting the Captaincy effect contract talks. So now your wanting to implode your team around a guy who albeit talented and a definate upgrade at the respected position, but have downgraded the rest of your team because of that. That is poor asset management and that is one of the reasons this rebuild is taking so long.

 

[Pookie]

Removing all the vets and having the prospects "peak" at the same time sounds brilliant. Maybe Edmonton should have tried this.

Oh wait. That's what they did, and it absolutely ruined their prospects, who were brought in too quickly.

I didn't say remove all the vets. In fact, I'd surround them with Leo Komarov types (who is 27 now). Character players. Leafs wouldn't be at the cap though for awhile and that would have to be justified in light of their ticket prices but the question was about building a hockey team… not public relations.

First off, if the team can make trades, make trades, but don't immediately makes trades just to remove roster players and replace them with prospects, so as to worsen your position.

First, getting prospects isn't nothing in return. Stocking your cupboards usually means you are going to eat well one day.

If a team acquires your star players, and gives up NOTHING off their roster in return, chances are you're not getting top 10 draft picks. You're getting bottom 10 (likely bottom 5).

You may get a 20-30th overall pick from someone else. But you also get your own pick… which as you point out is likely to be a high one. Besides, the key to this plan is to develop players.

People wrongly point to Detroit and think they are magical when it comes to drafting late round players that become stars. If they had known they would be stars, they wouldn't have drafted them so late. What they do well is turn players with skill into NHL players, regardless of the draft order. That's what the Leafs have failed to do time and time again.

Phil Kessel is better than any player he could be traded for.

Maybe. But the question isn't what Phil Kessel is now, or next year. I think we can all agree that the Leafs aren't going to Win a Cup in the next 3 years with what they have now.

It will take time to surround Phil Kessel with the kind of players that will make a difference.

So, the question then becomes how good… and useful to a Cup drive is a 31 year old Phil Kessel? That's even optimistic on a 4 year Cup timeline. It's probably more likely that the question revolves around a 33-34 year old Phil Kessel.

If the Cup isn't coming within his peak performance years, his value is in stocking the cupboards.

 

[Weltschmerz]

More than 2/3rds of the league still has a compliance buyout, ...

Do some research before you plan.

If they want a shakeup, i wouldn't be surprised if they move JvR.

Kessel, Lupul and him are too much of the same and he is the only one without a NTC and would probably get the best return right now.

 

[666]

EDM wants a legit 2C. Bozak or Kadri would be ideal.
EDM wants a goalie upgrade. Reimer fits the bill.
Lupul to a contender, provided you retain a piece of that cap hit. They need healthy bodies on the wing. Paul Martin isn't going to stay around. Lupul for Martin and a either a pick or a prospect is pretty reasonable...

Kadri is much more tradeable than Bozak.
Lupul is too injury prone but sure if you retain a bunch of salary you might get a second round pick for him.
Reimer might get a third round pick.

Not much of a plan.

 

[Rude Dog]

This team needs accountability from their forwards. I watched a tyke final game today...and loved watching these 7 year olds back check just as hard as when they were trying to score goals. When you see 7 year olds do it ... It just boggles the mind watching what these pros get away with. They need a leader on the team to grab a guy by the throat once in a while. Watching guys coast off the ice drives me crazy too...especially when it leads to an odd man rush.

Forget the 1st line center. This team needs a physical stay at home defender that will play 25 mins a game and bring calm to the circus that is the Leafs own end. I am actually really hoping the Leafs use this years pick to try to find one.

I am a huge Kessel fan...but watching his lack of compete in his own end is embarrassing at times...not to mention Bozak and JVR

Franson is not the worth money. They need to get an asset at the deadline. Need to stick pile some picks. Especially 2nd rounders which mgmt just can't stop trading. By the way...I so wanted the leafs to draft Madison Bowie last year before they made the Bolland trade. Ugh

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Do some research before you plan.

If they want a shakeup, i wouldn't be surprised if they move JvR.

Kessel, Lupul and him are too much of the same and he is the only one without a NTC and would probably get the best return right now.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=675349

I see only 9 teams out of 30 who have used both. Got evidence stating the contrary?

And yeah a JVR trade wouldnt shock me. Lately he has looked invisible unless Kessel sets him up. I wouldn't be terrible upset if they swung him for something but then again like with the Penguins, finding players that can mesh with kessel may prove difficult and if we don't give him the goods then our team won't go anywhere.

 

[Weltschmerz]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=675349

I see only 9 teams out of 30 who have used both. Got evidence stating the contrary?

"and ends on Monday, June 30 at 5 p.m. ET"


edit: first sentence is more clear

"Under the provisions of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, each team is allowed two compliance buyouts before the start of the 2014-15 season."

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Forget the 1st line center. This team needs a physical stay at home defender that will play 25 mins a game and bring calm to the circus that is the Leafs own end. I am actually really hoping the Leafs use this years pick to try to find one.

Totally agree here, We have 4 guys that look to be able to develop into top 6 centres now, Kadri and Bozak are already there, Holland is looking good but I personally like him being left as the 3C so he can rest up for the PK, as for Nylander he will be sheltered on the 3rd line I believe and then Bozak should get shipped out (alternatives are cheaper and more talented).

As for the back end we have too many of the same type, Rielly, Gardiner and Phanuef all like to cheat and Pinch, Rielly and Gardiner however have legs which makes them way more important if they can develop properly. Franson I like, he's physical and has a great shot, excelent QB for the PP, unfortunately he has footspeed comparable to Phanuefs, but paired with Rielly or Gardiner he can sit back and focus on the defensive aspects and keeping traffic clear from the net while still chipping in such as a guy like Bieksa but slower. Polak is one of my favourite pick ups of the offseason, he does exactly what you want a defenceman to do in his own end. Except once again he is slow af. If they draft a guy that can do what these guys do while at the same time having the legs to keep up with players, that would improve the D immensly especially alongside a defensive system that ustilizes this teams speed.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Thanks for the correcttion!

Either way I still believe a deal could be made with Clarkson, just looks like there is no way to do it w/o retaining salary.

 

[Durkin67]

Wilson had lost the room, the next coaching change is purely systemic. The evidence has been presented enough, under Carlyle shot attempts have dropped significantly and the leafs offensive pressure has toned down, he got a second chance but we still see relatively the same system out there with very minor improvements.

Roster wise yes trades do need to happen, but at the same time just like Grabo, MacArthur and Kulemin we can't let valuable assets walk for nothing while major holes still need to be filled. So you don't let Franson walk, you try trading Clarkson first as he is the most easily replaced player on the team with Nylander, Levio, Panik, Kozun and Broll all ready to step in the next season. Gardiner has massive potential still but time is running out and Percy is ready to step in too. A coaching change could result in a system Gardiner can flourish under making Phanuef expendable. However can the same be said about the centre position? Even if Nylander is on the team next year do you give him a top 6 role from the start? No that's how you end up ruining a prospect. Let him have the easy mins in a position he can succeed in. As for the Goat, his skating needs alot of work. He may become a good 3C but it won't be quick, and I doubt we see him in the NHL in the next 2 seasons. So are Bozak and Kadri replaceable, no.

Now all this said, let's say the leafs do a swap for ROR. Well if your Sakic and you have a guy who is "quickly becoming one of the best two-way forwards in the game" (while playing on one of the worst possession teams in the league) are you going to trade that for anyone on the leafs team at this moment? Kadri? well you've already stated he's better than him. Maybe Gardiner as back end offense is something the team is lacking. Well if he keeps playing like he is then probably not. Phanuef maybe? Well he hast a LNTC so maybe he doesn't even want to come here. the talk about ROR is just talk, unless Gardiner turns it on but even then, ROR is coming off a $6m contract and if Gardiner at 4.05 is going and Phanuef at $7m is staying then for the leafs they still have issues with the cap. so now you've sacrificed something on defence, plus probably a prospect like Percy, Finn or even Loov to sweeten the pot due to Gardiners lack of consistancy, and still need to move out one of Lupul Kadri Bozak Clarkson just to have enough room for 18 skaters signed.

So numerically it doesn't work. ROR has had contract negotian and ego problems in the past. Has shown he isn't entirely a "team player" as he let Landeskog getting the Captaincy effect contract talks. So now your wanting to implode your team around a guy who albeit talented and a definate upgrade at the respected position, but have downgraded the rest of your team because of that. That is poor asset management and that is one of the reasons this rebuild is taking so long.

None of those prospects provide what Clarkson was acquired to contribute.

Gardiner will never play those tough minutes Phaneuf plays.

Kadri isn't what COL needs. The big issue with ROR is that they were never in the position to truly negotiate the deal they wanted. They were forced to match an offer. And neither side will agree on an extension, nor is there a fit. Don't kid yourself, Sakic isn't likely to prioritize ROR when they have MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog locked up, and eleven UFAS in 2016 to think about signing or replacing. You think they roll the dice on a pending UFA who wanted out?

No chance.

Re: Gardiner's perceived value outside of Toronto, it has been suggested that like many other Leafs, it is down to the environment not the player. Nobody disputes Gardiner's skill. Everyone wonders if he will fully develop in this circus. And considering his term and cap hit VS ROR's numbers, not a lot of "sweetening" is required. Certainly no "imploding" in order to acquire him.

 

[Stephen]

Only point point I really need to make about the full tank job is look at Edmonton. It can get ugly and scary plus the trading of Kessel I don't believe would ever happen. With that I would rather build to make use of his talent while he's here than waste it trying to build for when he leaves

The last 10 years hasn't been ugly and scary?

 

[Durkin67]

Kadri is much more tradeable than Bozak.
Lupul is too injury prone but sure if you retain a bunch of salary you might get a second round pick for him.
Reimer might get a third round pick.

Not much of a plan.

Unless the plan is to free up cap. And, if you refer to the post I was replying to, the original comment was that none of those players were tradeable. I was refuting that argument. Not crafting some master plan.

 

[exporta]

First thing is, we need to pick offensive pairs and stick with them. Bozak/Kessel; Lupul/Kadri; JVR/Holland; Smith/Booth. Use the other four spots as needed with Winnik/Panik/Santa/Komorov.

Each line needs someone who will be 100% defensive and responsible. No more JVR-Bozak-Kessel line. Guys who will give the defenseman and outlet - everytime. Move out Gardiner and Franson (while his value is high). Go after after two established NHL defenseman with those assets, or assets acquired for those two.

That's the quick fix, now are you able to get those two defenseman? That's the difficult part. You could give Gardiner's spot to Percy and get just one defenseman as well.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

None of those prospects provide what Clarkson was acquired to contribute.

Clarkson hasn't contributed what he was brought in to do, he was a gamble to begin with and it didn't pay off. If they can clear his salary from the cap anyone of those mentioned can fill in what he is doing right now or at the very least Panik can get moved in. Clarkson is only playing sheltered third line mins. These guys all can play those mins and develop into being effective at them.

Gardiner will never play those tough minutes Phaneuf plays.

With the right system in place, having Gardiner and Rielly develop into a one-two punch on D would not require the team to have somebody playing those mins. This was my big point with the coaching change. Most of the problems are a result of the team not having enough defensively responsible players to play the swarm that Randy Carlyle implements. Get the guys skating and moving like Coach Q has Chicago do and a huge difference will be seen with these two guys. all of a sudden it's not about standing still and dumping the puck out and trying to reach it before the other team, it becomes about moving as a full unit pressing the offense and not sitting back trying to play a way none of what we have are capable of.

Kadri isn't what COL needs. The big issue with ROR is that they were never in the position to truly negotiate the deal they wanted. They were forced to match an offer. And neither side will agree on an extension, nor is there a fit. Don't kid yourself, Sakic isn't likely to prioritize ROR when they have MacKinnon, Duchene, Landeskog locked up, and eleven UFAS in 2016 to think about signing or replacing. You think they roll the dice on a pending UFA who wanted out?

No chance.

Not saying he would, but I also don;t see him resigning Tanguay and Briere and Hedja so I believe he will be fine working on Makinnon and Johnson what with Duchene and Landeskog already locked up long term. Not to mention Iginla likely retire's after this contract giving them even more cap to work with

Re: Gardiner's perceived value outside of Toronto, it has been suggested that like many other Leafs, it is down to the environment not the player. Nobody disputes Gardiner's skill. Everyone wonders if he will fully develop in this circus. And considering his term and cap hit VS ROR's numbers, not a lot of "sweetening" is required. Certainly no "imploding" in order to acquire him.

Would You trade ROR for a struggling Gardiner 1 for 1? There will be more needed. I would expect one of Loov Percy or Finn to head with Gardiner as well

The last 10 years hasn't been ugly and scary?

Difference is this team has at least went somewhere and still looks to be improving. After Sundin and the JFJ years everyone new that the team needed to be rebuilt. It was in shambles. Look at the roster in the year following Sundin's departure and what the team has now. Look at the Oilers roster after Smyth, Pronger ect. all left and compare it to what the team has now. They have 3 young offensively gifted players. One of which was supposed to be a franchise centre but was thrown in to early and has now been plagued with injury problems. After that? They have nothing. Nothing on D. Nothing up front. Nothing in net. They went 76er's on their rebuild and had nobody there to protect or mentor those kids. Despite this teams problems there have always been veteran players to shelter the kids from the heat. Do any of the players take shots at Rielly, Gardiner or Kadri without expecting the rest of the team to answer to Phanuef, Clarkson, Lupul? Were these 3 guys thrown right into the deep end and expected to swim or did they have to earn the jersey by outplaying vets and dominating at the previous level? When things go bad is it these 3 who take the heat or do we talk about Kessel as the hallmark of this team, Phanuef as a #1D, or Bozak as a #1C? they have been sheltered and its done better for them. They are getting time to learn what they can and can't do at this level. Hall RNH and Eberle are just trying to survive.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

First thing is, we need to pick offensive pairs and stick with them. Bozak/Kessel; Lupul/Kadri; JVR/Holland; Smith/Booth. Use the other four spots as needed with Winnik/Panik/Santa/Komorov.

Each line needs someone who will be 100% defensive and responsible. No more JVR-Bozak-Kessel line. Guys who will give the defenseman and outlet - everytime. Move out Gardiner and Franson (while his value is high). Go after after two established NHL defenseman with those assets, or assets acquired for those two.

That's the quick fix, now are you able to get those two defenseman? That's the difficult part. You could give Gardiner's spot to Percy and get just one defenseman as well.

It is a good quick fix, however you won't get value for Gardiner right now, and teams are not going to overpay for Franson. The teams that will be interested in Franson at the deadline will either A) want to make a push in the playoffs so maybe you get a late first or B) be a team trying to add offense on there blueline (COL DET MIN) and may try and get him to get ahead of the pack on the sweepstakes, but they aren't going to give anything of value for somebody who could easily walk away from them 3 months later. I say sign him. He's always had the underlying stats on his side and he can produce offensively. Granted him and Mark Fraser played relatively sheltered mins but he made Mark Fraser a plus 16!

 

[Menzinger]

1) Fire Carlyle and Nonis

2) spend rest of season seeing how the core respond to new coach

3) if playoffs are clearly out of reach trade out all UFAs and see if someone will be dumb enough to take Clarkson at 50% salary retained

4) constantly explore potential trades for young talent (ie ROR)

5) if core players still look lacklustre blow it up before the draft.