Your Plan Going Forward

[The Winter Soldier]

The problem with this is that Bozak hasn't been used as a #3 C - he's been gifted prime playing time, and two of the most offensively gifted wingers in the league. He simply won't be able to produce anywhere near his current season's production rates as a #3C - and will likely even perform well below his career norm of around 40-49 points per season (with less icetime and inferior linemates). At best, he'd be an average third line centre, making over 4 million a year - which is an overpayment.

I think you're dead wrong about Kadri too: if the team is going to rebuild, it is simply illogical to move out a centre whose under 25, and has very favorable comparisons in terms of 5v5 production (the most important kind there is), and possession. The stats clearly show he can absolutely be a valuable top six centre for the team, and to claim with such certainty otherwise seems to be nothing more than conjecture. Unless a team offers a freakish overpayment for him, he clearly should be part of the team's plans moving ahead.

I wonder what Kessel's CF% stats are.

“An individual (player) does not have a Corsi.”

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...i-an-individual-player-does-not-have-a-corsi/

Bozak is the ideal #3C on a good team. I would much rather have him as a #3C at 4M than Kadri as a #3C at 5.5M. One major advantage is he is back to where he was throughout his career at 54% face-off man. On a team like LA's where all C's are above 50% this is important. Plus he can kills PIMs. Kadri is only valuable if you can buy into us winning a cup with him as a #1 or #2 C. I can't see this. He has too many flaws, and this is why Bozak is a better fit at 4M at #3C than Kadri is at 5-5.5.

 

[WilliamNylander]

I wonder what Kessel's CF% stats are.

“An individual (player) does not have a Corsi.â€

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...i-an-individual-player-does-not-have-a-corsi/

Bozak is the ideal #3C on a good team. I would much rather have him as a #3C at 4M than Kadri as a #3C at 5.5M. One major advantage is he is back to where he was throughout his career at 54% face-off man. On a team like LA's where all C's are above 50% this is important. Plus he can kills PIMs. Kadri is only valuable if you can buy into us winning a cup with him as a #1 or #2 C. I can't see this. He has too many flaws, and this is why Bozak is a better fit at 4M at #3C than Kadri is at 5-5.5.

The problem is Kessel is stuck playing with Bozak.

Away from Bozak he's shown he can be >50% CF player, even with Matt Stajan as his C. It's pretty obvious Bozak is bringing him down, and it's really hurting the team

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I addressed it. And J Staal was only a 3C in PITT because he was behind two of the best players in the entire world on the depth chart. Don't compare Staal and Bozak and expect to be taken seriously. Staal isn't a 3C.

An elite player is a player possessing a highly specialised set of skills not commonly found across the league. 3C talent is COMMON, and by the very definition, anything but elite.

As I said, Bozak in the 2 or 3 hole is fine, depending on who you stick him with. I'd like to see him with another opportunist like Kozun, and a shift disturber like Komarov as an experiment, in a line that leverages Leo's ability to throw opponents off, Bozak's active stick in the neutral zone, and Kozun's speed and net drive.

I see some fairly effective secondary scoring possibilities there, as well as opportunity to mess with the opposition's top 6.

Care to address your plan to gut the D core and pray to the hockey gods for a franchise D prospect to magically appear and play 25 minutes a night right out of the gate?

So you admit there can be elite #3C's?

As for your question, I have a high regard for Rielly. You develop him into a #1D man. And we do not know what trades are forthcoming. You examine the UFA market. It isn't rocket science. I do see standing still as being mind numbing. What is this team? On the cusp of winning a cup.

Maybe Shanahan needs more time to evaluate. I don't.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

The problem is Kessel is stuck playing with Bozak.

Away from Bozak he's shown he can be >50% CF player, even with Matt Stajan as his C. It's pretty obvious Bozak is bringing him down, and it's really hurting the team

Playing with Kessel has its benefits and its negatives. Most know this.

Further, Kessel is happy, he has been PPG with Bozak as his center for 3 years straight. This is what matters to him.

 

[Durkin67]

So you admit there can be elite #3C's?

As for your question, I have a high regard for Rielly. You develop him into a #1D man. And we do not know what trades are forthcoming. You examine the UFA market. It isn't rocket science. I do see standing still as being mind numbing. What is this team? On the cusp of winning a cup.

Maybe Shanahan needs more time to evaluate. I don't.

Have your new years indulgences started a little early?

Elite suggests unique, highly specialised, inordinate and uncommon levels of ability. That classification automatically excludes anyone playing a COMMON position requiring no ELITE ability. 3C is not a highly specialised position. If that isn't clear enough for you, Im sorry. You're on your own.

You're talking about gutting the core and drafting a franchise D man. Thats called a crapshoot. The odds are against it, and GM's are paid to cover their bets not gamble on long shots and high risk gambles.

Rielly is a future top pairing guy no question,but anointing him 1D and dismantling your top pairing for the sake of change? Lunacy.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Have your new years indulgences started a little early?

Elite suggests unique, highly specialised, inordinate and uncommon levels of ability. That classification automatically excludes anyone playing a COMMON position requiring no ELITE ability. 3C is not a highly specialised position. If that isn't clear enough for you, Im sorry. You're on your own.

You're talking about gutting the core and drafting a franchise D man. Thats called a crapshoot. The odds are against it, and GM's are paid to cover their bets not gamble on long shots and high risk gambles.

Rielly is a future top pairing guy no question,but anointing him 1D and dismantling your top pairing for the sake of change? Lunacy.

I don't think you read or addressed my post.

Nevetheless, what is your solution? Stand pat. Try to sell we are winning a cup with this Center core? All is well to you as long as this team is flawed and mediocre. Tell me, it sure sounds like it from what I am reading.

 

[Purity*]

Nope, I said anyone on this team can be moved. I just don't see us finding a better #3C at 4M per than Bozak.

We need to fill core spots. #1C, #2C, #1D, #1G. Better 2 way wingers.

Bozak at 4M would give us a mismatch on almost any other team at #3C if we could find 2 stud Centers.

I don't want him playing in a top 6 role.

Team>player

Oh really? I look at Bozak's stats away from Kessel and see borderline 4th line numbers and putrid Corsi numbers.

We need a first line center, plain and simple. Kadri is the superior second line center to Bozak because Bozak can't produce jack **** without Kessel. Kadri has proven multiple times he's capable of driving the bus offensively. Kadri has developed into a great #2C for us and you better believe it that our management will be ready to lock him up long-term for that role.

 

[Pookie]

Great, enjoy the basement for the next 10 years.

As opposed to 20th place?

All the power to you in that search for the band aid.

 

[Durkin67]

Oh really? I look at Bozak's stats away from Kessel and see borderline 4th line numbers and putrid Corsi numbers.

We need a first line center, plain and simple. Kadri is the superior second line center to Bozak because Bozak can't produce jack **** without Kessel. Kadri has proven multiple times he's capable of driving the bus offensively. Kadri has developed into a great #2C for us and you better believe it that our management will be ready to lock him up long-term for that role.

At what price?

 

[Rare Jewel]

It's not even the 21/22 year old Kadri in his own end anymore. He's leaps and bounds better, Coupled now with the offense(and other stats); I really don't see the debate any more.

 

[Menzinger]

I wonder what Kessel's CF% stats are.

“An individual (player) does not have a Corsi.â€

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...i-an-individual-player-does-not-have-a-corsi/

Bozak is the ideal #3C on a good team. I would much rather have him as a #3C at 4M than Kadri as a #3C at 5.5M. One major advantage is he is back to where he was throughout his career at 54% face-off man. On a team like LA's where all C's are above 50% this is important. Plus he can kills PIMs. Kadri is only valuable if you can buy into us winning a cup with him as a #1 or #2 C. I can't see this. He has too many flaws, and this is why Bozak is a better fit at 4M at #3C than Kadri is at 5-5.5.

“An individual (player) does not have a Corsi.â€

So says one of the worst coaches in the NHL.


I saw a fun stat the other day on twitter regarding Bozak and Kadri's faceoff numbers:

James
‏@sir_jamez
Bozak has a 53.5%, which is supposed to be "some good" in terms of his overall game, winning 439 of 820 (in 37 GP)

James
‏@sir_jamez
Kadri has a 46% (250 of 544 in 37 GP) which is woeful and means he could never scratch it as a top C or something

James ‏@sir_jamez 20h20 hours ago
but if Kadri took as many faceoffs as Bozak, he'd only have 61 less wins than Bozak. That's -1.66 faceoff wins per game. PER GAME.

 

[Durkin67]

I don't think you read or addressed my post.

Nevetheless, what is your solution? Stand pat. Try to sell we are winning a cup with this Center core? All is well to you as long as this team is flawed and mediocre. Tell me, it sure sounds like it from what I am reading.

Then you need to read a little more.

I've stated that Bozak in the 2 or 3 hole is a good move. Ive also been very vocal about how I feel about changing the complexion and character of the top 6. You need guys committed to playing the right way and not trying to outscore their waits all year long.

Gutting your top D pairing doesn't accomplish anything positive. It sets you back 4 years and potentially ruins your top young D men.

Wanna get rid of Dion? have at it. But make the return make sense. A prospect 4 years away from being effective isn't the answer. By then, your other assets have diminished.

Moving Franson if Gardiner isn't flipped makes sense, because you can't keep them all without unloading cap elsewhere. I'd focus on unloading Gardiner first. 6'5'' right shots that lead your D in points every year aren't falling out of the trees any sooner than the Franchise D prospect you're counting on.

 

[The CyNick]

What is the alternative? Every thing is copacetic with this team. We can win a cup with Kadri, Holland, or Bozak as our top 2 centres.

I suggest to you, this is a pipe dream.

no no, read my posts, I never said this team is where it needs to be.

What I'm disputing is the notion that is easy to go out and get the pieces we need with the pieces we have.

 

[The CyNick]

I see your plan is flawless.
Just get better yo.
Its simple and subtle, not sure why it hasnt been tried.
You just beat the Kobayashi Maru.

It's like you said, if the plan is to get the right mix, surely acquiring assets to get those players that can be a 1C and D are part of the equation. You just said it.

There's clearly a communication barrier between us

 

[CmonLeafs]

Bozak having a high faceoff percentage just speaks even more negatively of his terrible career possession numbers.

Away from Kessel in his career, in over 600 minutes of ice time, Bozak has 70 corsi against per 60, whereas league average is usually in the low to mid 50s. Meanwhile he gets a fraction over 50 for. That is absolutely dreadful.

Bozak should be traded immediately to some team who's a sucker for his point totals, because he is one of the worst defensive forwards in the entire league.

EDIT: Link for the stats - http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1204&withagainst=true&season=2007-14&sit=f10

 

[indigobuffalo]

I would say there's a small chance Kessel is a member of the Leafs next season IF Babcock is hired as coach. The small chance is based on the possibility that Babcock may give Kessel a chance to prove he can adapt his game to play under a coach's system, rather than forcing the coach to adapt to the player's style of play.

IMHO, I don't think Babcock will bother, as I'm sure Shanahan has already figured this out for him.

IF Babcock isn't brought in to coach next season, I feel confident saying that the next coach will be Dale Hunter, and again, this puts Kessel in the hot seat as we all know how Hunter handled Ovechkin. It would be less likely that Kessel gets moved if Hunter is the coach, but the big difference between Ovechkin and Kessel is that Ovechkin does play physical. I think that's the one saving grace that kept him in Hunter's "good graces".

 

[MajorLeaf]

Outside of a better possession system, this is what I would do for this team:

1. Establish a better development plan within the organization.
2. Go back to the Burke mold of 5 year contracts.
3. Fix the defensive structure, fast. That includes a team defense approach

Points 1 to 3 are well done and are good ideas. The GM may have to make some exceptions to point 2 depending on the player, but it should be done across the board.

4. Trade a lot of the big ticket contracts: The following aren't exact, but a basis of who I would try and target.

To Edmonton
F - David Clarkson with 40% retained

For the fourth point none of these trades are feasible. Edmonton was willing to take on Clarkson originally, but you don't handcuff 40% of that salary retention for the next five years on Toronto's salary cap.

To Toronto
D - Zack Bogosian

To Winnipeg
D - Dion Phaneuf

Winnipeg would not take on almost $2 million more in salary for an older defenseman in Phaneuf versus Bogosian. You have to look at what Winnipeg's needs are first and not just what Toronto needs.

To Colorado
F - Phil Kessel

To Toronto
F - Ryan O'Rielly + 1st round pick
or
F - Matt Duchene

The O'Rielly + 1st is possible, but the Duchene is not. Duchene grew up an Avs fan when he was a kid, so why bring in someone whose heart would not be with the Leafs?

To Arizona
D - Jake Gardiner +

To Toronto
D - Keith Yandle

It will take a lot more to pry Yandle from Arizona. Gardiner would be a downgrade to Yandle so that plus would have to be at least JvR for them to even start listening.

To Dallas
D - Stephane Robidas

To Toronto
2015 5th round pick

There is a reason why Robidas was not re-signed with the Stars. Jim Nill was on record stating they had lots of defensive prospects in the pipeline and there is no room for Robidas on the Stars roster, so why would Nill trade for him?

To NY Rangers
F - Tyler Bozak +

To Toronto
F - Chris Kreider
or
F - JT Miller+picks

Why would the Rangers want Bozak over Kreider or Miller who are younger and cost less? Once again you have to think about the other team's needs not just the Leafs.

5. Figure out who the coach is and give him a 7 year contract. If Carlyle has to go, then so be it. Figure out who can establish a system and be given the players to actually run the system.

No coach should be given a long-term contract like that. Coaches in Toronto do not last long so at most give the coach a three year deal and then extend where necessary.

 

[pooleboy]

Playing with Kessel has its benefits and its negatives. Most know this.

Further, Kessel is happy, he has been PPG with Bozak as his center for 3 years straight. This is what matters to him.

tbh I don't care if kessel is "happy" I care about the leafs winning and that clearly isn't happening with Bozak

if im the leafs I blow this up keeping gardiner, jvr, kadri, bernier, rielly and go from there

kessel 4 jones +1st
Phaneuf 4 1st +
Lupul 4 1st
Franson 4 w/e
Reimer 4 w/e
Santa 4 w/e
Winnik 4 w/e
Booth 4 w/e

Clarkson 4 w/e if you can trade him....


**note w/e=picks

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Then you need to read a little more.

I've stated that Bozak in the 2 or 3 hole is a good move. Ive also been very vocal about how I feel about changing the complexion and character of the top 6. You need guys committed to playing the right way and not trying to outscore their waits all year long.

Gutting your top D pairing doesn't accomplish anything positive. It sets you back 4 years and potentially ruins your top young D men.

Wanna get rid of Dion? have at it. But make the return make sense. A prospect 4 years away from being effective isn't the answer. By then, your other assets have diminished.

Moving Franson if Gardiner isn't flipped makes sense, because you can't keep them all without unloading cap elsewhere. I'd focus on unloading Gardiner first. 6'5'' right shots that lead your D in points every year aren't falling out of the trees any sooner than the Franchise D prospect you're counting on.

You avoided the big question, the one that we started this discussion with.

If you agree that Bozak is a good option for #3C on this team. As this is where I think we will have a mismatch against other teams if you give him more rounded wingers.

Can we win a cup with Holland or Kadri as our top 2 Centers looking at what LA has? We have our #3C, what we need are better choices at #1 and #2. and this means saying no to Kadri at 5.5, THis is the problem with this team, too many mediocre players signed to big contracts.

I want to win the cup, not to ice a mediocre team.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

“An individual (player) does not have a Corsi.”

So says one of the worst coaches in the NHL.


I saw a fun stat the other day on twitter regarding Bozak and Kadri's faceoff numbers:

James
‏@sir_jamez
Bozak has a 53.5%, which is supposed to be "some good" in terms of his overall game, winning 439 of 820 (in 37 GP)

James
‏@sir_jamez
Kadri has a 46% (250 of 544 in 37 GP) which is woeful and means he could never scratch it as a top C or something

James ‏@sir_jamez 20h20 hours ago
but if Kadri took as many faceoffs as Bozak, he'd only have 61 less wins than Bozak. That's -1.66 faceoff wins per game. PER GAME.

Are you disputing the article? Or making an irrelevant statement on a coach?

 

[Erdinger]

No coach should be given a long-term contract like that. Coaches in Toronto do not last long so at most give the coach a three year deal and then extend where necessary.

While I agree that 7 years is a long contract to give a coach if the organization is rich and they don't mind eating 3 years if things don't work out it's not hurting the cap like with a player. Granted Maurice didn't last long as coach but I think Wilson and now Carlyle have been adequate time to get the Leafs turned around so the Leafs aren't as quick to fire coaches as other more successful franchises. I really think this collection of players is uncoachable. But that's management's problem on how they are going to deal with the situation other than the usual extending even more of them.

 

[Rare Jewel]

tbh I don't care if kessel is "happy" I care about the leafs winning and that clearly isn't happening with Bozak

if im the leafs I blow this up keeping gardiner, jvr, kadri, bernier, rielly and go from there

kessel 4 jones +1st
Phaneuf 4 1st +
Lupul 4 1st
Franson 4 w/e
Reimer 4 w/e
Santa 4 w/e
Winnik 4 w/e
Booth 4 w/e

Clarkson 4 w/e if you can trade him....


**note w/e=picks

We still need to put a roster together for the games after the deadline.

 

[Durkin67]

You avoided the big question, the one that we started this discussion with.

If you agree that Bozak is a good option for #3C on this team. As this is where I think we will have a mismatch against other teams if you give him more rounded wingers.

Can we win a cup with Holland or Kadri as our top 2 Centers looking at what LA has? We have our #3C, what we need are better choices at #1 and #2. and this means saying no to Kadri at 5.5, THis is the problem with this team, too many mediocre players signed to big contracts.

I want to win the cup, not to ice a mediocre team.

OK so you're either high, blind or you have a comprehension issue. Your "big question" was answered several times and I even suggested a line with him in the 3 hole. Ive also never suggested Kadri at 5 or 5.5 M

I want to see a deal for ROR . I like the Staals and what they add in terms of size up the middle as well as their character.

You're just not listening. Likely, diverting attention away from your crazy notion of dismantling the top D pairing in hopes of anointing Rielly as your 1D and drafting "an Eichel".

 

[MajorLeaf]

Seriously who cares about the Bozak debate. The fact is; this entire roster needs to have some changes and quite frankly it could be Bozak, Kessel, Phaneuf, etc that will eventually need to be moved at some point. None of these core players have been able to elevate this team to become contenders so it's time to move on.

 

[Menzinger]

Are you disputing the article? Or making an irrelevant statement on a coach?

I very much dispute the article's point.

Plus minus is a very flawed stat for analyzing individual players, because goals don't happen very often - and thus a player simply being on the ice at the wrong time during their instances are far more likely to happen. This isn't the case with shots/corsi, as they happen quite frequently, and thus when analyzed over the long term you get a much better idea of their accuracy.

Not to mention, it's not justthe player's corsi that is important, it's their relative corsi to their teammates which really matters - something that article really doesn't touch on. And as mentioned, Corsi is focused on LONG TERM trends: so individual game mishaps (ie the "wrong place at the wrong time") situations will get evened out over time. Naturally, with all stats analysis once in a while you get an outlier (your Martin Marincin's).