Your Plan Going Forward

[Daisy Jane]

I typed a long post on my phone and put it in the wrong thread.

Hopefully Mod will move it here.

This team needs to make major changes and not little Santorelli ones.

We need better players, not only in talent. But in character, leadership, drive, courage, IQ.

Purge this complacent bunch in essence. Or this team will be stuck where we are.

do you remember the thread? if I'll find it i'll quote it for you

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

sort of, but every player is unique. Who is the Phil Kessel equivalent that hs been traded in the last say 18 months? What about Dion?

On top of that you can't just suggest random teams will even enter negotiations without knowing if they are interested in our players. Then add on the wrinkle of limited no trade clauses and it becomes a daunting if not impossible task to get any real grasp on who could go where and for what.

Marian Gaborik albiet not the same caliber plays a very similar game, was only aquired for Matt Frattin for a second and a third which became a second by them winning a playoff round. Gaborik however was on the last year of his deal. However when he was traded to NYR in 2013 he was acquired for Brassard (2nd Line Centre) Darrik Dorset (middling NHLr) John Moore (depth Player) and a 6th

So the Value isn't great. Defensively the last comparible trade to Dion was himself. So youd be looking at 3rd Line guys and Journeymen D. Doesn't help that when BB traded for him 29 other teams in the league wanted nothing to do with him (warning signs?)

Then again Iginla went to Pittsburgh for a late first and 2 mid level prospects and would've ended up in Boston for Bartkowski and Khokhlache and a late 1st. Again on the final year of his deal.

I doubt Kessel gets swapped for 2 early firsts again as he was an RFA and it would take even poorer missjudgement than what BB had to do that now.

Other star players traded:

Vancouver traded Kesler and a third-round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft to Anaheim for center Nick Bonino, defenseman Luca Sbisa and Anaheim's first-round and third-round picks in the 2014 NHL Draft.

In exchange for Spezza, the Senators received forwards Alex Chiasson, Nicholas Paul and Alexander Guptill, plus a second-round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft. The Stars also received forward Ludwig Karlsson.

So like I've said resulting price for star players seem to be a second round pick and a couple of prospects or young roster players to fill out bottom roster spots.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Great, enjoy the basement for the next 10 years.

We're already living the dream.

 

[613Leafer]

Short-term:
-Fire Carlyle, make Horachek interim HC
-Sell high on Franson before the deadline
-Fire Nonis. He signed off on the Clarkson contract, traded for Bolland, wanted to resign Bolland to a 5 year X 4.9M deal, and hasnt made the team any better than the day he inherited it. That's all I really need to know.

Long-term:
-Look to sell off Kessel. Don't rush it just to shove him out the door, but this organization needs to go in a different direction
-Focus on players with high hockey IQ and compete level. Try and build a deep team where all lines can contribute offensively, and all lines are responsible defensively
-In the off-season, do an in-depth Head Coaching search. Babcock might be available, McLellan, Paul MacLean, John Stevens, DoBoer, Horachek, etc would all be options. Id want a coach with a track record of coaching strong possession hockey, strong defensive teams, developing young players, and not creating a negative atmosphere
-Look to move out some 1-2 of JVR, Bozak, and Lupul. Again with the intent of targeting stronger two-way players, clearing capspace, etc.

Overall Id be looking to cut salary, create flexibilty, add a couple of high-potential prospects/young NHLers, add to the farm via picks/prospects in general, and reorganize around Rielly, Nylander, Kadri, Komarov, Bernier, etc going forward, supporting them with more responsible players instead of lazy one-dimensional ones.

This organization continually preaches accountability, but doesnt actually practice it. Kessel, JVR, and Bozak are dead last out of 363 forwards in the league for shots against (per 60 minutes). It's completely unacceptable, it's been going on for years, and yet they get the premier ice-time and the longterm big-money contracts (JVR aside who didnt sign here).

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

I'd start with deciding who fits the Shannahan model. The rest are expendable, regardless of pedigree or price tag.

So, what is the Shannahan model?

Im not 100% sure of all that it might entail because I'm not Shanny, but I believe it begins with character. If you're a skill guy without a team first mentality, you're not needed, no exceptions.

Lock up your goalie long term and determine your D core. For me, that is Phaneuf, Franson, Rielly, Robidas and Polak, who is a fantastic bottom pairing shutdown guy.Leave a spot open for someone to step up and claim it.

Top 6 is a poorly engineered mish mash of randomly assembled pieces that just don't work together. No attention to detail, no commitment to winning the 50-50 battles, no desire to fall back and support the D properly.

Lupul was a cap dump to justify moving Gardiner for Beauchemin. He'd be an overachiever at 4 million a year, but considering his age and his injury history, you have to wonder how useful he is going forward.

Bozak is the best 3C in the game, miscast as a top centre, because he's the only one with the rapport necessary to play with Kessel.

JvR is highly skilled, but appears to be mentally disenfranchised at times.

Kessel is a sniper who will begin to slow down before the team is a contender.

Kadri is never going to be that game breaker we all seem to expect every top ten pick to become. But, that's ok...as long as he doesn't expect to be paid like a game breaker.

Clarkson was acquired to be that character guy who can play the game on whatever level is needed; physical or offence oriented, while providing the leadership a championship team needs. On a more cohesive team, he'd be more successful.

Reimer wants to be a starter. But, he isn't going to get that shot here. He needs a shot in a new city.

Conclusions:

Keesel is out
Lupul is out
Gardiner is out
Kadri, for anything north of 4.5 million is out*
Gardiner is out
Reimer is out
* if a package for a legit 1C or future 1C includes Kadri, he's out

Players of Interest:

Anyone named Staal
Leon Draisaitl
Ryan O Reilly
Brayden Schenn


There's no fast track but I think you start with establishing an identity based on commitment to doing the detail things, and maintaining a strong work ethic. In LA, it's a pack mentality and everyone checks the egos and attitudes for the greater good. If they don't, the pack will sort them out in a hurry. Detroit has a similar philosophy. No rock stars, just a group committed to winning as a unit.
Toronto is all rock stars with no commitment to doing the little things. They hang their D and their goalies out to dry by waiting to be sprung so they can make the highlight reel. Complete opposite of that pack mentality that champions all demonstrate.

Hopefully, Shanny gets down to business and starts weeding them out, but as I said elsewhere, I think he's just handing them the rope and observing whether they use it to hang themselves, or to cooperate and all pull on it together.

I keep seeing posts about Brayden Schenn and ROR so often and tbh i don't quite get why. Brayden Schenn hasn't had a higher point total than Kadri has had in his 2 full seasons in the league. As for ROR I think Kadri is showing that he may be on par with him. Plus he may be even worse to negotiate contracts with than kadri appeared last time. ROR is currently coming off a $6m contract too and we already have cap problems so hes a no go. Staal again see cap and if your trading off Kessel and Lupul then were just giving him what he has already in Carolina. And again with Kessel Bell/Rogers would never aprove the trade.

 

[Durkin67]

Marian Gaborik albiet not the same caliber plays a very similar game, was only aquired for Matt Frattin for a second and a third which became a second by them winning a playoff round. Gaborik however was on the last year of his deal. However when he was traded to NYR in 2013 he was acquired for Brassard (2nd Line Centre) Darrik Dorset (middling NHLr) John Moore (depth Player) and a 6th

So the Value isn't great. Defensively the last comparible trade to Dion was himself. So youd be looking at 3rd Line guys and Journeymen D. Doesn't help that when BB traded for him 29 other teams in the league wanted nothing to do with him (warning signs?)

Then again Iginla went to Pittsburgh for a late first and 2 mid level prospects and would've ended up in Boston for Bartkowski and Khokhlache and a late 1st. Again on the final year of his deal.

I doubt Kessel gets swapped for 2 early firsts again as he was an RFA and it would take even poorer missjudgement than what BB had to do that now.

Other star players traded:

Vancouver traded Kesler and a third-round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft to Anaheim for center Nick Bonino, defenseman Luca Sbisa and Anaheim's first-round and third-round picks in the 2014 NHL Draft.

In exchange for Spezza, the Senators received forwards Alex Chiasson, Nicholas Paul and Alexander Guptill, plus a second-round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft. The Stars also received forward Ludwig Karlsson.

So like I've said resulting price for star players seem to be a second round pick and a couple of prospects or young roster players to fill out bottom roster spots.

Gaborik is 32
Iginla is 37
Spezza is 31
Kesler is 30


Kessel s 27. Resulting price for older stars may be something along the lines of what you suggest. Unless you're Marty St Louis.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Stay the course.


We'll tank ourselves into contention eventually, right?

 

[Daisy Jane]

Stay the course.


We'll tank ourselves into contention eventually, right?

edmonton vs. toronto 2020
oooooo baby.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Gaborik is 32
Iginla is 37
Spezza is 31
Kesler is 30


Kessel s 27. Resulting price for older stars may be something along the lines of what you suggest. Unless you're Marty St Louis.

Yeah that was a gong show with that trade lmao

 

[Igy]

****ing gather up everybody that contributed to changing the Raptors, and have them explain to Leafs management how to run a professional sports team properly.

 

[Durkin67]

I keep seeing posts about Brayden Schenn and ROR so often and tbh i don't quite get why. Brayden Schenn hasn't had a higher point total than Kadri has had in his 2 full seasons in the league. As for ROR I think Kadri is showing that he may be on par with him. Plus he may be even worse to negotiate contracts with than kadri appeared last time. ROR is currently coming off a $6m contract too and we already have cap problems so hes a no go. Staal again see cap and if your trading off Kessel and Lupul then were just giving him what he has already in Carolina. And again with Kessel Bell/Rogers would never aprove the trade.

Its not just point totals, and that mentality seems to be the problem. It's about playing the right way and being committed to winning. Brayden Schenn either set or tied the WJC record with 18 points in the tourney...with a separated shoulder...I want players that hate losing that much to be the ones representing my team.

ROR is turning into one of the fiercest, most competitive 2 way centres in the game. Kadri? He's OK. He's not ROR in terms of compete.

E. Staal based on leadership, character and his skills. Again, it starts with character, not cap or contract...

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Short-term:
-Fire Carlyle, make Horachek interim HC
-Sell high on Franson before the deadline
-Fire Nonis. He signed off on the Clarkson contract, traded for Bolland, wanted to resign Bolland to a 5 year X 4.9M deal, and hasnt made the team any better than the day he inherited it. That's all I really need to know.

Long-term:
-Look to sell off Kessel. Don't rush it just to shove him out the door, but this organization needs to go in a different direction
-Focus on players with high hockey IQ and compete level. Try and build a deep team where all lines can contribute offensively, and all lines are responsible defensively
-In the off-season, do an in-depth Head Coaching search. Babcock might be available, McLellan, Paul MacLean, John Stevens, DoBoer, Horachek, etc would all be options. Id want a coach with a track record of coaching strong possession hockey, strong defensive teams, developing young players, and not creating a negative atmosphere
-Look to move out some 1-2 of JVR, Bozak, and Lupul. Again with the intent of targeting stronger two-way players, clearing capspace, etc.

Overall Id be looking to cut salary, create flexibilty, add a couple of high-potential prospects/young NHLers, add to the farm via picks/prospects in general, and reorganize around Rielly, Nylander, Kadri, Komarov, Bernier, etc going forward, supporting them with more responsible players instead of lazy one-dimensional ones.

This organization continually preaches accountability, but doesnt actually practice it. Kessel, JVR, and Bozak are dead last out of 363 forwards in the league for shots against (per 60 minutes). It's completely unacceptable, it's been going on for years, and yet they get the premier ice-time and the longterm big-money contracts (JVR aside who didnt sign here).

Great post! So far the most realistic version of what I see happening in the short term. Personally I would love to keep Franson, he has been a stud this year and articles have been coming out about stuff he does for younger players that sound similar to what O'Neil brings up that his mentors did on LL. Long Term I have said Kessel is here weather people like it or not. Bell/Rogers will not let anyone move him as JFJ reveled in his book the board has a strong control on who the GM can and can't trade. Also I have seen articles and heard podcasts where people have suggested that GM's are still interested in Clarkson and see that hes a victim of the group of players rather than an over achiever in jersey. He's shown this year he can still score. He's not on the first line or PP unit so i don't see him potting 30 but he seems to be a 20 G guy but that may be the only 20 points he gets you.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Its not just point totals, and that mentality seems to be the problem. It's about playing the right way and being committed to winning. Brayden Schenn either set or tied the WJC record with 18 points in the tourney...with a separated shoulder...I want players that hate losing that much to be the ones representing my team.

ROR is turning into one of the fiercest, most competitive 2 way centres in the game. Kadri? He's OK. He's not ROR in terms of compete.

E. Staal based on leadership, character and his skills. Again, it starts with character, not cap or contract...

Kadri and Schenn also have very similar advanced stats. They aren;t too far off and right now I would take Kadri. ROR and stall are unrealistic because of the cap and unfortunately due to bad contracts and cap management this team is too close to the cap that they have to worry about cap hits. If they dont then the guys they bring in end up like Crosby and Malkin. Great players surrounded by Crap.

 

[Durkin67]

Kadri and Schenn also have very similar advanced stats. They aren;t too far off and right now I would take Kadri. ROR and stall are unrealistic because of the cap and unfortunately due to bad contracts and cap management this team is too close to the cap that they have to worry about cap hits. If they dont then the guys they bring in end up like Crosby and Malkin. Great players surrounded by Crap.

If the numbers are similar you go to intangibles for your answer. I think Naz has matured, and he'd be great at under 4.5 M going forward, but head to head, I take the guy who hates losing most, and that's Schenn for me.

Unloading Gardier Lupul Reimer and possibly Kessel hardly makes ROR or STAAL (Sorry, I got a thing about the Stall misspelling) unattainable due to cap concerns.

Again, it's about identifying both the skills as well as the mentality and compete level you want to be what your team is known for. Non-combative disengaged offensive players with no desire to mix it up don't win championships.

 

[BertCorbeau]

do you remember the thread? if I'll find it i'll quote it for you

Got it - post #17 now in this thread for those who want to read it

 

[Pyrophorus]

Marc Staal may be available this summer....as one point.

Dump Dion for something.

 

[Menzinger]

If the numbers are similar you go to intangibles for your answer. I think Naz has matured, and he'd be great at under 4.5 M going forward, but head to head, I take the guy who hates losing most, and that's Schenn for me.

Unloading Gardier Lupul Reimer and possibly Kessel hardly makes ROR or STAAL (Sorry, I got a thing about the Stall misspelling) unattainable due to cap concerns.

Again, it's about identifying both the skills as well as the mentality and compete level you want to be what your team is known for. Non-combative disengaged offensive players with no desire to mix it up don't win championships.

Ok. Prove to me that Schenn has a better "compete level" and "hates losing more".

Because as far as I can tell, this is all just conjecture.

 

[666]

A lot of nonsense in this thread. Stuff like trading Clarkson. Not gonna happen. How about people present their plan with the following assumptions.

No one wants Kessel, Phanuef, Clarkson, Lupul, Reimer and Bozak due to their cap hits and limited NTC's.
Because this core is good but not good enough assume that you'll be picking around 8-14 every season.

Now let's see some realistic plans.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Short version:

• I change MLSE's vision. The goal is not competing for the playoffs… goal is to dominate the playoffs
• Invest heavily in player development. Figure out what Detroit is doing for its draft picks and do it better
• Sorry boys but draft. That's the only way to get quality players. UFAs don't become available in the numbers they used to. Trades don't often result in quality players coming our way.
• The core goes. Top 6 & Blue line. Only Reilly is on my no trade list. I'm one of those that look at this core and salary structure and think, we can't win with this. You see top 5, I don't see Top 5. I don't even see Top 15. Prospects and picks are all I want in return. I don't want position players at this stage. I want prospects and the next 2-3 drafts to start to peak at the same time.
• Next coach gets an 8 year contract so we don't have this discussion about changing coaches when the results aren't there.
• and make no mistake, the results won't be there for awhile.
• I build a culture with Komarov type guys that will work with the youngsters.

Removing all the vets and having the prospects "peak" at the same time sounds brilliant. Maybe Edmonton should have tried this.

Oh wait. That's what they did, and it absolutely ruined their prospects, who were brought in too quickly.

We have a team, don't need to blow it up to build through the draft. Just draft and develop, then as contracts approach expiration, move them if you can for picks and promote internally. Create a culture of competition.

This notion of "blowing it up" is insane.

First off, if the team can make trades, make trades, but don't immediately makes trades just to remove roster players and replace them with prospects, so as to worsen your position.

If a team acquires your star players, and gives up NOTHING off their roster in return, chances are you're not getting top 10 draft picks. You're getting bottom 10 (likely bottom 5).

People act like just because a team finishes 30th with 3 1st rounders that those magically become 1, 2, and 3rd overall. Or at least that seems to be how they view this blow-it-up non-sense...

Phil Kessel is better than any player he could be traded for.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Short-term:
-Fire Carlyle, make Horachek interim HC
-Sell high on Franson before the deadline
-Fire Nonis. He signed off on the Clarkson contract, traded for Bolland, wanted to resign Bolland to a 5 year X 4.9M deal, and hasnt made the team any better than the day he inherited it. That's all I really need to know.

Long-term:
-Look to sell off Kessel. Don't rush it just to shove him out the door, but this organization needs to go in a different direction
-Focus on players with high hockey IQ and compete level. Try and build a deep team where all lines can contribute offensively, and all lines are responsible defensively
-In the off-season, do an in-depth Head Coaching search. Babcock might be available, McLellan, Paul MacLean, John Stevens, DoBoer, Horachek, etc would all be options. Id want a coach with a track record of coaching strong possession hockey, strong defensive teams, developing young players, and not creating a negative atmosphere
-Look to move out some 1-2 of JVR, Bozak, and Lupul. Again with the intent of targeting stronger two-way players, clearing capspace, etc.

Overall Id be looking to cut salary, create flexibilty, add a couple of high-potential prospects/young NHLers, add to the farm via picks/prospects in general, and reorganize around Rielly, Nylander, Kadri, Komarov, Bernier, etc going forward, supporting them with more responsible players instead of lazy one-dimensional ones.

This organization continually preaches accountability, but doesnt actually practice it. Kessel, JVR, and Bozak are dead last out of 363 forwards in the league for shots against (per 60 minutes). It's completely unacceptable, it's been going on for years, and yet they get the premier ice-time and the longterm big-money contracts (JVR aside who didnt sign here).

Pretty much agree with this. But I'd start by firing RC....... now. Yesterday. See what you have by the trade deadline or off-season. He's not working out here and I think there's a core player issue too. But I'd like to see guys like Kadri, Gardiner, Rielly with a different coach before deciding what to do with them.

I think signing Franson long-term will end up being another mistake

 

[Commander Clueless]

How about people present their plan with the following assumptions.

No one wants Kessel, Phanuef, Clarkson, Lupul, Reimer and Bozak due to their cap hits and limited NTC's.
Because this core is good but not good enough assume that you'll be picking around 8-14 every season.

Now let's see some realistic plans.

That first assumption is not at all a realistic premise to start from.


But, assuming your assumptions are correct, the plan going forward would be fold and move to Seattle.

 

[Durkin67]

ok. Prove to me that schenn has a better "compete level" and "hates losing more".

Because as far as i can tell, this is all just conjecture.

go back and read the part about setting or tying the wjc record of 18 points in the tournament...with a separated shoulder. Ever had a shoulder injury?

 

[indigobuffalo]

Here's how I envision things unfolding over the rest of this season, the off-season, and over the next season (short term).

Leafs continue to play .500 hockey through January, mounts a surge in February and March, and sit comfortably in the 1st wildcard spot by the end of April, making the playoffs and facing off against, likely, Tampa Bay.

Leafs split games in TB, and go on to win a surprising round 1 match-up in 6 games.

They face probably Washington or NYR in round two, and lose in 6 games.

During the off-season, the Leafs hire Mike Babcock as their new head coach.

Babcock begins his process of evaluating players during the off-season, doing a meet-and-greet with the players and some key prospects. The trip through Massachusetts is skipped, which strikes up a media firestorm of speculation that Kessel is going to get traded.

Sure enough, during the Draft 2015, the Leafs ship Kessel off to a western conference team, bringing back a top defensive prospect and a 1st in 2015 (it's a 18-21 pick). Not sure which team, but one of STL, NSH, SJS, or ANA would be my guesses.

Lupul also gets moved out. Leafs re-sign Franson, Bernier, Kadri, Winnik, Santorelli, and Holzer.

Everyone expecting Phaneuf to be jettisoned are puzzled that he is still on the team when training camp opens up.

Surprise addition in training camp is Broll nabbing a roster spot out of the gate. Of course, the biggest surprise is moving Gardiner up to LW, à la Brent Burns/Dustin Byfuglien.

Game day roster is as follows:
van Riemsdyk - Kadri - Holland
Gardiner - Bozak - Clarkson
Winnik - Santorelli - Broll
Panik - Komarov - Leivo

Phaneuf - Franson
Rielly - Robidas
Polak - Defensive prospect acquired in Kessel deal
Holzer

Bernier
Reimer

Under a new coach with a possession-based mindset, and a renewed commitment to defensive hockey, the Leafs become one of the top possession teams in the NHL, with the Kadri line being one of the top in the league. The Winnik/Santorelli/Broll line becomes one of the top shut-down lines in the league, amassing a crushing +85 +/- rating collectively.

Holland posts a career-high 25 goals and 30 assists as a winger on the top scoring line.

Fans are ecstatic and see the Leafs go on to post solid finishes over the next 3 seasons, placing 3rd in the division in each year, and making it to either the second round (twice) or conference final (once) during that span.

Under the new regime, draft picks flourish, and the Leafs make major breakthroughs in forensic analytics, and break-open the moneypuck system on an unprecedented scale.

 

[Menzinger]

go back and read the part about setting or tying the wjc record of 18 points in the tournament...with a separated shoulder. Ever had a shoulder injury?

Sure. Schenn did really well at the world juniors several years ago and is obviously a tough guy.

That still doesn't tell me that he has more drive to win than Kadri and it certainly doesn't tell me he is a better NHLer than Kadri.

 

[MapleLeaf4ever]

Ok. Prove to me that Schenn has a better "compete level" and "hates losing more".

Because as far as I can tell, this is all just conjecture.

Dangle did a great video recently about leadership and how there's no real definition of way to quantify leadership. These guys have been competing there whole lives too make it to the NHL, the whole compete level bit is just media BS, the problems with this team are Personel being 1 Dimensional and a system not playing to the teams strength. Some diversity and a coaching change will make a great difference.