Would the season be a failure wit ha 1st round exit

[Flair Hay]

This one depends on how we go out more than if we do or not.

If it turns out we peaked in December and never got it back like vs the Blues that would be tough to swallow.

If we end up going toe-to-toe and losing an epic battle to Dallas or the Avs, or even Vegas in 7, that's a different story

If we lose without playing great, whoever we lose to its incredibly disappointing

 

[WolfHouse]

If half the Jets' forwards revealed that they had enlarged spleens during the debrief, would that be a failure?

Failure but with an exspleenation

 

[kanadalainen]

Failure but with an exspleenation

 

[jiho]

I dont think you can consider this season a failure no matter what happens the rest of the way. I kind of agree what Chevy said last year in that you first need to make the playoffs to have a chance. I think Chevy has made the necessary moves to give the team a chance to win the Cup.

However, if you asked this same question to the Stars and Avalanche boards everyone would be disappointed if their team does not make a long Stanley Cup run. I think all three teams in the Central are capable of winning the Cup. It will be the team that gets hot at the right time, gets hot goaltending and the right bounces.

So I dont think this season can be a failure because they have a chance at the Cup but it can be a disappointment. It will be a sad disappointment if they play well and lose and a mad disappointment if they dont show up and show no pushback in losing in the first round.

 

[tbcwpg]

I dont think you can consider this season a failure no matter what happens the rest of the way. I kind of agree what Chevy said last year in that you first need to make the playoffs to have a chance. I think Chevy has made the necessary moves to give the team a chance to win the Cup.

However, if you asked this same question to the Stars and Avalanche boards everyone would be disappointed if their team does not make a long Stanley Cup run. I think all three teams in the Central are capable of winning the Cup. It will be the team that gets hot at the right time, gets hot goaltending and the right bounces.

So I dont think this season can be a failure but it can be a disappointment. It will be a sad disappointment if they play well and lose and a mad disappointment if they dont show up and show no pushback in losing in the first round.

As it stands, at least 2 of the top 9 teams in the league will be out in the 1st round. Wpg, Dal and Col are 5, 6 and 7 respectively.

 

[WolfHouse]

As it stands, at least 2 of the top 9 teams in the league will be out in the 1st round. Wpg, Dal and Col are 5, 6 and 7 respectively.

And they will be failures.

 

[kanadalainen]

And they will be failures.

 

[Teppo Numenor]

I dont think you can consider this season a failure no matter what happens the rest of the way. I kind of agree what Chevy said last year in that you first need to make the playoffs to have a chance. I think Chevy has made the necessary moves to give the team a chance to win the Cup.

However, if you asked this same question to the Stars and Avalanche boards everyone would be disappointed if their team does not make a long Stanley Cup run. I think all three teams in the Central are capable of winning the Cup. It will be the team that gets hot at the right time, gets hot goaltending and the right bounces.

So I dont think this season can be a failure because they have a chance at the Cup but it can be a disappointment. It will be a sad disappointment if they play well and lose and a mad disappointment if they dont show up and show no pushback in losing in the first round.

The right bounces will ultimately determine the cup winner

 

[DRW204]

If they finish 2nd or 3rd they likely play Dallas or Colorado. Is it a failure to lose to one of those 2? Guess that's up to each individual to decide.

Considering most figured they would be a bubble team at best this season, it's been pretty good already, imo.

who is most?

most of this forum had this team top-3 in the division, majority at #3, in a poll i made prior to the season. not much will end up separating COL DAL or WPG.

some of the more popular stats based modelling or projections had us quite high in the NHL ie: HockeyViz/IneffectiveMath at 10th overall, and Jfresh 1st overall.

 

[abax44]

who is most?

most of this forum had this team top-3 in the division, majority at #3, in a poll i made prior to the season. not much will end up separating COL DAL or WPG.

some of the more popular stats based modelling or projections had us quite high in the NHL ie: HockeyViz/IneffectiveMath at 10th overall, and Jfresh 1st overall.

Sorry, needs a modifier. "Before the re-signing of 37 and 55, most..."

At that point, things were grim and some form of rebuild/retool was expected.

 

[DRW204]

Sorry, needs a modifier. "Before the re-signing of 37 and 55, most..."

At that point, things were grim and some form of rebuild/retool was expected.

sure, but they didn't go rebuild or trade those guys? idk why people were expecting a rebuild when the team themselves were literally telling us they did not want to rebuild. and they still had both of those players under contract for another year.

i don't see how that's really relevant anymore when they were both on the roster for training camp & game-1, along w/ the PLD trade and Wheeler buy out. usually people make predictions after the dust settles w/ roster signings, trades etc.

 

[abax44]

sure, but they didn't go rebuild or trade those guys? idk why people were expecting a rebuild when the team themselves were literally telling us they did not want to rebuild. and they still had both of those players under contract for another year.

i don't see how that's really relevant anymore when they were both on the roster for training camp & game-1, along w/ the PLD trade and Wheeler buy out. usually people make predictions after the dust settles w/ roster signings, trades etc.

You win. No one was worried, and no one thought the Jets were looking down the barrel of a rebuild. Literally zero talk of it in the off-season.

 

[Buffdog]

The right bounces will ultimately determine the cup winner

I know you don't mean "bounces" in a literally way, so I'm wondering what you mean by that term

In a one game, winner takes all situation luck can be a major factor (I don't even like THAT term).

In a 7 game series, the only consistent reason that the better team loses is because they run into a hot goaltender... but even then, the goaltender is still a part of the team so did the "better" team reallynlose after all?

 

[Maukkis]

I know you don't mean "bounces" in a literally way, so I'm wondering what you mean by that term

In a one game, winner takes all situation luck can be a major factor (I don't even like THAT term).

In a 7 game series, the only consistent reason that the better team loses is because they run into a hot goaltender... but even then, the goaltender is still a part of the team so did the "better" team reallynlose after all?

Goalies have such an outsized impact on team performance over a short sample, that it is hardly accurate to say that they're just "a part of the team".

An illustration (5v5 numbers): if your goalie lets in 1.0 goals above expectation in a game, and you keep shooting at league average clip, you need to generate 12-13 more shots to compensate for the extra goal your team allowed. That's a 45-50% increase to an average team's 5v5 shot totals, and basically impossible to pull off.

Yes, it's likely that things balance themselves out over the long run, but in a seven-game series, those swings of goaltending, which happen often, can make or break the outcome all by themselves. Put simply, the series isn't long enough for things to regress to the mean. Unless your opponent suffers the same fate, you won't be able to outshoot your way out of the hole.

That is why spending big at any deadline is generally a bad idea. A Toffoli, a Miller, a Hertl or even a Stone isn't going to matter one bit if you don't get goaltending, which is something you cannot really predict.

 

[Jack7222]

<snip>

That is why spending big at any deadline is generally a bad idea. A Toffoli, a Miller, a Hertl or even a Stone isn't going to matter one bit if you don't get goaltending, which is something you cannot really predict.

Not sure I'm following here. If goalies are the most significant playoff factor, and their playoff performance is pretty random such that trying to inject better skaters into the team for playoffs makes little difference, then wouldn't it also follow that the value of draft picks and prospects that are skaters (not goalies) would also drop in value commensurately?

Edit: Rereading I think I get your point. You're saying that the value of future assets is in helping to ensure that we get to the playoffs, and that in seasons where we're already 99% to make it, we should save our future assets for that purpose.

 

[Maukkis]

Not sure I'm following here. If goalies are the most significant playoff factor, and their playoff performance is pretty random such that trying to inject better skaters into the team for playoffs makes little difference, then wouldn't it also follow that the value of draft picks and prospects that are skaters (not goalies) would also drop in value commensurately?

Edit: Rereading I think I get your point. You're saying that the value of future assets is in helping to ensure that we get to the playoffs, and that in seasons where we're already 99% to make it, we should save our future assets for that purpose.

The part in bold is correct, but the part after it isn't necessarily always true. You can justifiably spend assets on reinforcements, but unless they come with extra years on their deals (e.g. Nino), it's incredibly likely that they're not going to have much of an impact on the team.

 

[PhilJets]

If they go out in a 4 game sweep, yes.

If they lose a hard fought 7 game battle, not really. But it'll hurt very bad..

 

[CanMerc]

Still need a proper 2C, Monahan isn’t that, and a better top 4 RD… don’t think they make the SC finals as they are… but in the playoffs anything can happen.
The goal should always be the Cup…not the playoffs, so anything less then champions is a failure, but realistically, and because anything can happen in the playoffs, anything past the 2nd round can be viewed as a step in the right direction

 

[WolfHouse]

If we lose in the first round I can handle it

If we don't play perfetti in the top six... fail.

 

[PhilJets]

Still need a proper 2C, Monahan isn’t that, and a better top 4 RD… don’t think they make the SC finals as they are… but in the playoffs anything can happen.
The goal should always be the Cup…not the playoffs, so anything less then champions is a failure, but realistically, and because anything can happen in the playoffs, anything past the 2nd round can be viewed as a step in the right direction

Monahan is a good 2C and not many 2C from the other team is better than him. Then you flank him with Ehlers and Toffoli, that is a very good line....

What you are looking for is a 1C to play in the 2nd line behind Mark Schefele, that's different.

 

[UFO]

If they go out in a 4 game sweep, yes.

Always makes me think of this


“The unfortunate part of this is we’re going to look back and everyone’s going to say we got swept and that’s not what happened.”

I'm going to tell y'all a secret. We are going to surprise a lot of people this season.

Failure is not an option.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I said "no". Only other option I would've considered is depends on "how" they play.

The fact is the West is WIDE open. To mee, all teams look equal. I personally think our most likely opponent is Colorado. Are we actually EXPECTING to beat them. Looks pretty close to 50-50 to me.

Is losing a 50-50 proposition failure?

 

[Laurose]

The optimist in me says "The Jets have as a good a chance as any"...but the realist says the Jets analytics and their style of play will get worn down by the bruising neutral zone aggression of the Preds and the Knights; nevermind the forechecking swarm called the Oilers or the Avalanche! Maybe the Stars we have a better answer but they too play a hyper aggressive neutral zone. Jets struggle against such teams.

These playoffs will be tough for the Jets and Jets fans. Maybe playing in a seven game series with shrewd coaches observing the styles of their opponent, they may find weaknesses. Familiarity can potentially expose weaknesses. AKA Vegas Golden Knights and their successes. We need shrewd coaching (no panic if we lose the first game of a series!), a hot goaltender, an improved special teams, and all four lines dialed in and bought into the suffocating system Bones has tried to create in Winnipeg. If those happen, we have a chance.

In the Western Conference this season, wherever you rank, the playoff is going to be a tremendously unique monster. From top to bottom, at this point, the separation from worst to best is 15 points. Vegas' only slight has been the tremendous injuries they've had to overcome. If and when they get healthy...watch out. Vegas and the Preds will NOT be an easy out! All 8 teams are strong contenders with strong analytics. Can someone honestly say that Vegas or the Preds have to be considered strong underdogs no matter what team they face in the first round? The Western Conference is a BEAST!! In my opinion, the Kings and perhaps the Canucks may be vulnerable and perhaps even the Jets. They have weaker analytics. This is going to be a TOUGH and AWESOME playoff year...even if the Jets succumb. The players they got in the trades will certainly help our (The Jets) cause.

The Eastern Conference?? Now that is a different kettle of fish. The Bolts, Flyers, Red Wings (or Capitals) and maybe even the Leafs can't compete with the top 4 in that conference. Panthers, Canes, Rangers, and to a slightly lesser degree the Bruins, are monsters in possession analytics and are savages in the forecheck and neutral zone aggression. Those four OWN the conference.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

Monahan is a good 2C and not many 2C from the other team is better than him. Then you flank him with Ehlers and Toffoli, that is a very good line....

What you are looking for is a 1C to play in the 2nd line behind Mark Schefele, that's different.

That was duboia but he was a flake

 

[johnnyonthspot]

The optimist in me says "The Jets have as a good a chance as any"...but the realist says the Jets analytics and their style of play will get worn down by the bruising neutral zone aggression of the Preds and the Knights; nevermind the forechecking swarm called the Oilers or the Avalanche! Maybe the Stars we have a better answer but they too play a hyper aggressive neutral zone. Jets struggle against such teams.

These playoffs will be tough for the Jets and Jets fans. Maybe playing in a seven game series with shrewd coaches observing the styles of their opponent, they may find weaknesses. Familiarity can potentially expose weaknesses. AKA Vegas Golden Knights and their successes. We need shrewd coaching (no panic if we lose the first game of a series!), a hot goaltender, an improved special teams, and all four lines dialed in and bought into the suffocating system Bones has tried to create in Winnipeg. If those happen, we have a chance.

In the Western Conference this season, wherever you rank, the playoff is going to be a tremendously unique monster. From top to bottom, at this point, the separation from worst to best is 15 points. Vegas' only slight has been the tremendous injuries they've had to overcome. If and when they get healthy...watch out. Vegas and the Preds will NOT be an easy out! All 8 teams are strong contenders with strong analytics. Can someone honestly say that Vegas or the Preds have to be considered strong underdogs no matter what team they face in the first round? The Western Conference is a BEAST!! In my opinion, the Kings and perhaps the Canucks may be vulnerable and perhaps even the Jets. They have weaker analytics. This is going to be a TOUGH and AWESOME playoff year...even if the Jets succumb. The players they got in the trades will certainly help our (The Jets) cause.

The Eastern Conference?? Now that is a different kettle of fish. The Bolts, Flyers, Red Wings (or Capitals) and maybe even the Leafs can't compete with the top 4 in that conference. Panthers, Canes, Rangers, and to a slightly lesser degree the Bruins, are monsters in possession analytics and are savages in the forecheck and neutral zone aggression. Those four OWN the conference.

Great analysis and best to be a realist. The Jets are a good but not elite team. Only helly can steal a series or two!