Value of: Winners and Losers in the Expansion Draft

[AvsGuy]

Well, if they only picked the best players available to them, they would have a slightly smaller, less smelly dumpster fire of a lineup.

I hugely disagree. They wanted 1st round picks, and they loaded up on them at the expense of already established talent. They didn't need to make deals with Minnesota or Anaheim or the Islanders - those teams were in a bind and needed to leave a lot of good players exposed, and Vegas should've taken them to the cleaners.

I don't consider getting a mid-1st round pick or an iffy prospect for passing on Dumba, Vatanen or de Haan/Strome/Nelson as a win, at all.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Washington is a big loser. Schmidt was their 2LD of the future and a fan favorite. They have no one in the organization to replace Schmidt which means they'll either have a bad blueline or they'll need to bring in another top 4 defenseman. Top 4 defensemen aren't cheap which likely means they can't resign Oshie. It also means they probably won't get rid of Orpik since he's the only other LD option who has handled top 4 minutes before.

In sum, Washington didn't just lose Schmidt. They also probably lost Oshie and their ability to get rid of Orpik. Big L for the Caps.

 

[troyerlaw]

Washington is a big loser. Schmidt was their 2LD of the future and a fan favorite. They have no one in the organization to replace Schmidt which means they'll either have a bad blueline or they'll need to bring in another top 4 defenseman. Top 4 defensemen aren't cheap which likely means they can't resign Oshie. It also means they probably won't get rid of Orpik since he's the only other LD option who has handled top 4 minutes before.

In sum, Washington didn't just lose Schmidt. They also probably lost Oshie and their ability to get rid of Orpik. Big L for the Caps.

This.

Bad blunder by Caps.

Very good player on cheap contract, and his best seasons are still ahead of him. I would have paid whatever the allegedly "too high" price Vegas was asking, even if it was a first round pick next year plus Vrana or Lucas Johansen.

The chance of a late first round pick next tear turning into a player of Schmidt's caliber is 50-50 at best. And even if it does, Ovie and Backstrom are three or four years older by then.

Or I would have sought a trade for Carlson, or even exposed him. He is an excellent player, obviously, but he is also paid like it and it's not as crystal clear that his best years are still ahead of him.

GMGM is no fool (erat-forsberg fiasco notwithstanding). He knows the value of Schmidt. It will be extra painful if McPhee turns around today and sends Schmidt to Pittsburgh or NYR.

I hope to god Caps don't compound the error by rushing out and overpaying Alzner. Let another team do that

 

[seanlinden]

Las Vegas is a big winner here.

Something that a lot of the people bashing them don't realize -- the way the draft was designed, Vegas was getting absolutely no prospects, whereas every team will have 4 years of legitimate prospects in their system.

Sure, they could have gotten better immediate help, but they're still going to have to wait for 3-4 years to have an asset pool that is comparable to other teams. With the quality available to them at centre, there was basically no point.

When they become good, they will need that asset pool to deliver both overperforming cheap players, and trade bait.

Rather than having an above average draft this year (6th OA, all their own picks), they are going have what is most likely one of the strongest draft classes in history, and put their prospect system close to other teams almost instantly.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Neal was a very popular team mate. Nobody wanted him gone. It's rumored that GMGM was wanting a 2018 1st, 2017 2nd and 2 prospects from Poile to protect who he wanted. Being that Jarnkrok is signed 6 yrs for 2 mil and is a good 2 way C and Neal would be a UFA next season needing a raise from the 5 mil he's making now, the choice was clear.
Neal was the sacrifice McPhee forced for the Forsberg debacle.

My mistake then.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Las Vegas is a big winner here.

Something that a lot of the people bashing them don't realize -- the way the draft was designed, Vegas was getting absolutely no prospects, whereas every team will have 4 years of legitimate prospects in their system.

Sure, they could have gotten better immediate help, but they're still going to have to wait for 3-4 years to have an asset pool that is comparable to other teams. With the quality available to them at centre, there was basically no point.

When they become good, they will need that asset pool to deliver both overperforming cheap players, and trade bait.

Rather than having an above average draft this year (6th OA, all their own picks), they are going have what is most likely one of the strongest draft classes in history, and put their prospect system close to other teams almost instantly.

I still wouldn't be shocked to see them turn and flip guys like Neal, Vatanen, Schmidt, etc for more ready prospects rather than picks to just have one giant wave of 18 year olds, too. If you can start getting guys who are 1-2 years out it'll help with development and cap management - having to sign like 10 kids at the same time will likely be a nightmare.

 

[Rick74*]

Ottawa is gonna feel the loss of Methot as he is their #2 and is why Karlsson is able to do what he does.

They are going to have some adjustments to make now.

 

[topshelf15]

Sens are pretty big losers imo

#2 Dman gone for nothing. With nobody to replace him.

4.9 mil in cap space gained and a slew of young LHD that features one of the best in Chabot .Please man we arent as hard pressed as you are making it out to be

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Islanders were a win yesterday. Anyone who thinks otherwise, which is apparently many, just dont get it.

Yup, Quebec or Seattle will be getting a good team

 

[OrangeAndBlackMetal]

Because they need to fill out their bottom six, already have some scoring wingers, and Raffl and Read aren't that good? I don't see how one of those players gets them anywhere.

They're both better than and get them further than Bellemare does.

 

[Spectra]

Is this it for Vegas? Because if it is, they have a garbage roster both now and for the future. Suspecting GMGM has been too "nice" in his dealings with other teams and will pay for it both short and long term.

I will wait until after the draft and see what D he can trade and the return in those trades. The return for Methot for example has to be massive for him to have a chance to redeem himself.

 

[TheKingPin]

I know they didn't have some master plan but the flyers made out very well. They lost a 4 goal scorer who with VDV were some of the worst metric players in the league.

 

[Stuzchuk]

Loser: OTT, lost the man they wanted to keep at all cost. That's their bad though, they should have dealt their 2017-1st

Winner: CAL/EDM/DET, no deal done, and still have prevented significant damage

 

[Stuzchuk]

Ottawa is gonna feel the loss of Methot as he is their #2 and is why Karlsson is able to do what he does.

They are going to have some adjustments to make now.

hopefully they can sign K. Alzner

 

[nbducksfan19]

Neal was a very popular team mate. Nobody wanted him gone. It's rumored that GMGM was wanting a 2018 1st, 2017 2nd and 2 prospects from Poile to protect who he wanted. Being that Jarnkrok is signed 6 yrs for 2 mil and is a good 2 way C and Neal would be a UFA next season needing a raise from the 5 mil he's making now, the choice was clear.
Neal was the sacrifice McPhee forced for the Forsberg debacle.

The thing i dont understand is if he had that kind of value - why wouldn't nashville trade him Pre Expansion draft to a team with a weak protection list? Something would have been better than nothing...

 

[carter333167]

Blues were a winner...probably a win-win on Perron. Blues needed cap space and off-loaded the second biggest available cap after not wanting to pay assets to dump Lehtera.

 

[Flyerfan52]

Yes, that piece has some value, but it is an 11 spot drop in the middle of the first round, of a weak draft. Certainly not more value to the Jets than Lowry/Perrault/Armia, which is who they ended up saving, in the larger scope of this deal.

The Jets are a young team, for sure, but they arent really "rebuilding" anymore. They don't NEED another draft pick. They went through a long process of sucking and replacing much of their old Atlanta team (ZERO depth, and no prospects to speak of coming up) with young players through the draft, and have built a nice young core, and have good prospects to go with them already. They finally are on the verge of being good after years of the youth movement, hopefully able to take the next step now with minor tweaking. People are stuck in the rut of "they have sucked so they will always suck", but this was the plan all along, it has just taken time. Now is not the time to bleed pieces and "rebuild" again through the draft.

Not 1 of those 3 were exposed.
The best player exposed was Enstrom who was unlikely to be picked @ 32 with a 5.75 hit for 1 year before departing via UFA (not even good trade bait as his NMC would come back into effect limiting teams & return).
The 2nd best was Dano.
The Jets have more young forwards & prospects than they can find room for now. Would you consider an 11 spot drop in the 1st & a 3rd in 2019 as a worthwhile price to pay to acquire Dano given the Jets don't need yet another forward in the way of prospects like Connor & Roslovic? That's what they paid to retain him.
@ 13 there are likely to be good D prospects available. @ 24 less likely.

 

[Pens x]

Yup, Quebec or Seattle will be getting a good team

Haha wow

 

[Taak19]

Colorado - I'm not sure they protected the right goalie. Pickard is the right age for a rebuilding team and he looks like he could be a solid starter behind a better team.

Florida - I don't know how you replace all those goals you just lost

Washington - All depends on if they lose Alzner and Shattenkirk. If they do lose both losing Schmidt will be a huge blow I'm sure he was a guy they believed could step in and eat up some of those minutes. Without all three of them they don't look nearly as dangerous.

Picks couldn't outplay an unhealthy Varly. Avs made the right choice in who to protect.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Winners = jets

Everyone in their division lost roster players. Wild lost a good prospect. The jets actually had addition by subtraction in losing Thorburn.

How will we stay ahead of the Jets without the David Perron?

 

[tampa pred]

The thing i dont understand is if he had that kind of value - why wouldn't nashville trade him Pre Expansion draft to a team with a weak protection list? Something would have been better than nothing...

Because they would have still lost a good forward (Sissons or Aberg) in the draft. Then they would be down Neal and Sissons/Aberg.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Wild, Penguins are winners.

Vegas did a horrible job, other losers would be NYI and Florida.

 

[ffh]

How will we stay ahead of the Jets without the David Perron?

Try beating us for once . That might help.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Blues were a winner...probably a win-win on Perron. Blues needed cap space and off-loaded the second biggest available cap after not wanting to pay assets to dump Lehtera.

Really depends on what the offer was. Would it have taken a first to get them to take Lehtera? If so then screw that. He's not good but it's not that drastic. He's on the books for 2 more seasons and he can play a little.

If it was like a 3rd or 4th rounder to take Lehtera then they lost. They should have done that.

All hypothetical.

I'm more surprised with how amazing at hockey David Perron got over the last 5 days.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

Try beating us for once . That might help.

Apparently we don't even need to do that.