What people in this thread seem to be ignoring is that wanting to sign Bennett to a contract with a higher AAV is
not about "handing him money he hasn't earned". It's about buying term to minimize the long term AAV for the Calgary Flames. People say that they're willing to pay a player however much he asks for after he earns it, but the cap is a real thing. You can't just hand everybody a large AAV contract and keep a team together. The idea that second contracts are the contracts you save money on is rooted in the pre-cap era, where you could hand every aging vet a retirement contract with no consequence.
Here's how I see Bennett's shaking out in every given year, along with my proposed AAV for a given contract term.
Season|OKG Expected Salary|Age|Term|Arbitration Rights?|AAV of Expected Salary|Proposed AAV|Favours|Notes
2014-15|0.100|18|-|-|-||-|
2015-16|1.138|19|-|-|-||-|
2016-17|1.138|20|-|N|-||-|
2017-18|2.250|21|1|Y|2.250|Term Not Viable|Bennett|Backlund UFA/Jankowski RFA
2018-19|3.250|22|2|Y|2.750|Term Not Viable|Bennett|Tkachuk RFA/Ferland UFA
2019-20|5.000|23|3|Y|3.500|3.250|Both|Brouwer/Frolik/Hamonic/Stone/Brodie UFA
2020-21|6.250|24|4|Y|4.188|3.575|Flames|Signing Bonus affects leverage significantly.
2021-22|6.750|25|5|UFA|4.700|4.000|Bennett|Takes Bennett to UFA
2022-23|10.000|26|6|UFA|5.583|4.400|Flames|Buy 1 UFA Year
2023-24|10.000|27|7|UFA|6.214|4.650|Flames|Buy 2 UFA Year
2024-25|10.000|28|8|UFA|6.688|5.000|Flames|Max Term
Now here's the thing. If you sign Bennett to a two year bridge deal like some people want to do, then "after he earns it" are you willing to give him a six year deal worth 5+6.25+6.75+10+10+10 = 8M AAV x 6 Years afterwards? Because you won't have any leverage of a miserable season to fall back on. And that AAV is less than what was signed by Draisaitl, never mind that two years from now the cap inflation may increase that 8M AAV by another 5% or so (it happens every year).
"okay, but if he earns an 8M AAV that means he's a really good player, so it's worth it".
Sure.
Know who else might be worth it? Matthew Tkachuk, who would be an RFA at the same time, and Micheal Ferland. Are you going to deplete the depth of your team for one player, when you could have had all three just a few years ago?
Or do you take your chance with player-elected arbitration and mess around for the rest of his RFA years? Has that ever worked out?
"as long as he's playing behind Mikael Backlund and Sean Monahan, he'll never earn an 8M AAV".
Perhaps. Or perhaps he becomes a 50 point 3C (which would make him the best 3C in the NHL). And so he requests a trade after two more years of playing behind Mikael Backlund and Sean Monahan. So again, you lose a great player.
"Sam Bennett is not a star player. He will never be worth 4.65M dollars AAV. It would be a bad contract".
First of all, you'd be ignoring cap inflation. 4.65M (for a seven year deal) in five years (when we will need the salary cap space far more than we do right now)
"I just refuse to pay a player money they haven't earned! 26 Points!!!"
You're welcome to your opinion. But it's short-sighted and the only outcome is either that you're right and Sam Bennett is terrible at hockey (lol) or you're wrong and we lose an important core piece. Basically, it's the position of someone who doesn't
want to see a favourable outcome for the Calgary Flames. Basically it's a lose-lose scenario you are betting on. The Flames basically lose either way. Maybe it's not that binary, and there's a middle ground in their somewhere, but you're merely
hoping for full-scale mediocrity to be the final outcome. Most of the people who feel we can win without Sam Bennett approaching his potential also believe Sean Monahan is or will become a top 15 center in the NHL, which ironically is more optimistic than thinking Sam Bennett will be worth 4.5 to 5 million dollars at some point in the next eight years.
"what about that 3.25 x 3 proposal of yours? Wouldn't that be a win-win for both sides?"
Far moreso than a two year bridge. And you would have enough cap space to give Bennett whatever 9M+Inflation AAV that he could potentially command. It could work. And it's
probably the ultimate what we end up with on September 15th. We'd probably come out of everything okay.
But my proposed offers give us more flexibility which ultimately maximizes our chance at being elite contenders for a long time.
"Bennett would never accept your lowball proposed deals... "
As long as you agree those deals favor the Flames, we're on the same page. Whether they'd be enticing for Sam Bennett given his other options is besides the point. Remember, this long ass post started with "this
not about "handing him money he hasn't earned". This is about signing a reasonably fair deal that could be
beneficial to the Calgary Flames.