Why Don't Leaf Fans view the Leafs as a Contender?

[LeafFever]

Hfboards is basically always wrong about the Leafs.

So the fact that most here don't think we're a contender actually makes me more confident.

HFBoards tells us the Buffalo Sabres are years ahead in the rebuild.

 

[LeafFever]

I love how only offence matters in hockey. Not defence, not physicality, just offence.

He's actually pretty crappy defensively. This idea Nash is this "Two Way" beast was always fantasy.
If you make almost 8 million, you better score anyways.

 

[mehavecable]

I think as this team is going through the stages of a rebuild perfectly.

This season, they are now a legit playoff team.

The next level is to become a legit Stanley Cup contender. I don't think we're fully there yet.

Having said that, can we win the cup this year. Yes... If we go on a run and things fall into place.

 

[cookie]

Looking at the team on a line to line basis, the first two forward lines are two of the top lines in hockey. No issues there. The third line needs sheltering but scores at a very good clip. And for the first time all year, the fourth line is cohesive--all players play well defensively and should take some pressure off of lines one and two. All in all, a potent, but balanced bunch, plus Matt Martin.

Unfortunately, the defense pairings are suspect. While the Rielly pairing has been tasked with difficult match ups all season long, they're noticeably slowing down. Fortunately, the Gardiner pairing is picking up the slack from a sluggish start of the season. The biggest issue though, is the third pairing, which hasn't had time to gel due to player substitutions, injuries, and the in-season replacement of Borgman with Dermott. While Polak's post injury mobility issues seem to be behind him, he is still by far the weakest link in this group. With that being said, he's actually having a decent stretch of late... I have reservations with Zaitsev's play and am concerned with Hainsey's expiration date.

The goalie should win the Vezina; the backup a Masterton. As is the case with every elite team in the league, these goalies make the difference at the end of the day. This confident goaltending is invaluable to this young team and its AHL call ups.

Speaking of whom, I think these call ups are what puts the team over the edge. It's not a fluke that the Marlies are so good and I believe that every non-core player* can be replaced with a Marlie with little to no ill effects. We literally have 2 NHL teams.

*Core players include Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Hainsey, and Andersen.

Our playoffs will live or die by the health of Hainsey and Andersen. Having such a bind spot, in my opinion, takes this team away from a contender status. We can still make a run with Andersen and the forwards, but that can be said about many teams.

 

[I am Canadian]

Honestly because its a defense mechanism. We are so used to failure the prospect of being a contender kind of intimidates us.

 

[seanlinden]

Winning the cup does require a great amount of luck in addition to skill... however....

I look at Tampa Bay, and I ask, what's their weak-point? What will ultimately be their downfall? And I struggle to come up with one. Vasilevsky is easily one of the best goalies in the league, that defensive core, with the addition of McDonagh, is definitely up there. They already have 4 guys over 20 goals, and another 4 over 10.

I look at Boston, and I ask, what's their weak-point? Rask is probably right on par with Andersen. Their forwards could have certainly been accused of being shallow, but the additions of Gionta & Nash should rectify that. I think Krejci & Nash will re-ignite each other. Their blueline maybe, as it's quite young, but I never count out Big Z's ability to take over a playoff series.

I look at Pittsburgh, they've won 2 cups in a row, and made some massive additions to shore up their depth up front.

Yeah, we've got depth up front and the ability to put together 2 really good matchup lines; without having to use Matthews, Nylander, Marner or JvR; but we still have a very suspect defensive core.

 

[Koolboss]

Because we are not

 

[Welsh Maple Leaf]

Play offs wrapped up well before March but not a contender... okay

Swear teams like Boston and Tampa are battering us when we play them. We can hang with any team.

Favourites - no
Contender - absolutely

 

[TheGroceryStick]

I'm just cautiously optimistic

We didn't trade like we are a contender, still posturing for a strong next year and beyond...not ready to sell the farm just yet.

 

[Nithoniniel]

We are 5th in the league right now, and has been the best team in the league over the last month. We are quite good. Not a Cup favorite, but we are good enough for realistic hope.

I look at Tampa Bay, and I ask, what's their weak-point?

Their defensive depth. They'll likely go with Dan Girardi as their second pairing guy next to McDonagh. That's not a strong point. Sergachev is very good, but understandably still shaky defensively, and Coburn/Sustr is Polak-level players. And this is the frontrunner who a lot of people think is one of the strongest teams in recent years.

I look at Boston, and I ask, what's their weak-point?

They don't really have one. They have top end players, and they have good depth. If anything, they don't have much in the tier in between.

You could say that we are their weak point though. They've really struggled against us.

I'd say that there are a few teams that I think we are legitimately underdogs against. Tampa, Nashville, Pens, Jets perhaps. But we are in the next group.

 

[Confucius]

Play offs wrapped up well before March but not a contender... okay

Swear teams like Boston and Tampa are battering us when we play them. We can hang with any team.

Favourites - no
Contender - absolutely

Over the last 10 years only twice (the favourite) a team which finished 1st in their conference went on to win the Cup. A team which finished 3rd, 4th and 8th in their conference also went on to win the Cup.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's very close, I wouldn't be surprised if the Leafs made the ECF or if they lost in the first round.

Agreed. Would only add that I wouldn't be surprised if the Leafs won the cup.

We are 5th in the league right now, and has been the best team in the league over the last month. We are quite good. Not a Cup favorite, but we are good enough for realistic hope.

That's a good way of putting it.

I'd say that there are a few teams that I think we are legitimately underdogs against. Tampa, Nashville, Pens, Jets perhaps. But we are in the next group.

Probably dogs against Vegas too. But yeah good list, agree with Boston not being on the list and there's always the chance that someone else takes out PIT or even TB for us (Assuming we're lucky enough to draw Boston in the first round).

Over the last 10 years only twice (the favourite) a team which finished 1st in their conference went on to win the Cup. A team which finished 3rd, 4th and 8th in their conference also went on to win the Cup.

That's parity for ya I guess. The way I look at that is that is jives nicely with my opinion which is that we are not quite at the level of the top contenders but the gap between then and us is small. Or to put it another way, winning the cup is hard and we're a long shot but so is every team.

 

[rent free]

He's actually pretty crappy defensively. This idea Nash is this "Two Way" beast was always fantasy.
If you make almost 8 million, you better score anyways.

Spooner had krejci at C. Who did Nash have? Not zib.

 

[kb]

Because we are not

Shootout loss, on the road, to the #1 team, without arguably our best player.

The Leafs are a contender. Don't be afraid. It's ok to think that way.

 

[SoVi3t]

We have a great playoff team, but I still feel like we're lacking the key pieces to be a Cup contender.

Our D is still a little weak, and our kids just don't have enough playoff experience yet.

That being said, it's not a guarantee that they won't win, I still feel they could have a chance depending on various scenario's.

 

[LeafFever]

Spooner had krejci at C. Who did Nash have? Not zib.

Nash is 34. At this point he is what he is. His defensive play was always overrated, even in his prime.

 

[BlueBaron]

You could say that we are their weak point though. They've really struggled against us.

We might be a bit faster than Boston?

 

[BayStreetBully]

I’m happy to take on any team. I don’t see any Detroit or Colorado circa 2003 teams anymore. We are not a powerhouse, but neither is anyone else.

 

[JadedLeaf]

We are 5th in the league right now, and has been the best team in the league over the last month. We are quite good. Not a Cup favorite, but we are good enough for realistic hope.


Their defensive depth. They'll likely go with Dan Girardi as their second pairing guy next to McDonagh. That's not a strong point. Sergachev is very good, but understandably still shaky defensively, and Coburn/Sustr is Polak-level players. And this is the frontrunner who a lot of people think is one of the strongest teams in recent years.


They don't really have one. They have top end players, and they have good depth. If anything, they don't have much in the tier in between.

You could say that we are their weak point though. They've really struggled against us.

I'd say that there are a few teams that I think we are legitimately underdogs against. Tampa, Nashville, Pens, Jets perhaps. But we are in the next group.

Agree with your post. As for the bolded part, I've been reading on the tampa boards and it's been mentioned a few times there how Sargechev can't be counted on yet to go up against top lines and makes rookies mistakes sometimes. Something we could hopefully take advantage of. I agree with people saying Tampa is a good team but I think we're underestimating how close we are to them. No reason to think we aren't at least capable of beating them in a 7 game series.

Boston doesn't really scare me that much. Outside of one game we seem to play them well. As long as we can find a way to consistently shut down the Bergeron line I'm pretty confident we have way more horses throughout the rest of our line up to beat them even if they shut down the Matthews line as well.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I’m happy to take on any team. I don’t see any Detroit or Colorado circa 2003 teams anymore. We are not a powerhouse, but neither is anyone else.

True enough. Damn those teams were good.

Agree with your post. As for the bolded part, I've been reading on the tampa boards and it's been mentioned a few times there how Sargechev can't be counted on yet to go up against top lines and makes rookies mistakes sometimes. Something we could hopefully take advantage of. I agree with people saying Tampa is a good team but I think we're underestimating how close we are to them. No reason to think we aren't at least capable of beating them in a 7 game series.

Boston doesn't really scare me that much. Outside of one game we seem to play them well. As long as we can find a way to consistently shut down the Bergeron line I'm pretty confident we have way more horses throughout the rest of our line up to beat them even if they shut down the Matthews line as well.

I think we're very close to them too. Not sure how I'd handicap the series assuming nothing major changes between now and then but offhand, I'd say our chances of winning the series might be closer to 45% than 40%. And 45% would be pretty damn close.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Leafs are 13-2-1

3 Losses: BOS, PIT, and TBL.

HF boards: Leafs suck.

LOL

 

[JadedLeaf]

True enough. Damn those teams were good.



I think we're very close to them too. Not sure how I'd handicap the series assuming nothing major changes between now and then but offhand, I'd say our chances of winning the series might be closer to 45% than 40%. And 45% would be pretty damn close.

That's how I see it too. Wouldn't say it's even odds but I think all it would take is for one or two players to get hot on either team to decide the series. Could see it coming down to whoever falters first, Vas, or Andersen.

 

[Commander Clueless]

A bit of concern around our defense, and a bit of pure pessimism (which we've earned the right to have).

Leafs are 13-2-1

3 Losses: BOS, PIT, and TBL.

HF boards: Leafs suck.

LOL

To be fair, those are the three most likely teams we'd have to get through.


We might be sitting at 4th in the league right now, but I think we need to keep in mind the first round(s?) won't be a cakewalk. We'll be facing off against other top 5ish teams....which might seem wrong, but that's how divisions work these days.

 

[LeafGrief]

Some people seem to think that the Leafs aren't capable of upsets. Some people think that hockey is like poker where you should fold at the first sign of trouble. Some people just have loser attitudes.

Leafs are one of the best teams in the league and yet there are those who can only see flaws. It happens in other aspects of life too.

 

[Trapper]

To answer the thread title about contender, please tell me what we've done to rate contender?
We are currently making the playoff for the 2nd year in a row and have 6 playoff games to our resume.
Give me a sample size and don't confuse will be contenders with are contenders.
You wouldn't judge the entire career of Mitch/Nylander based on the 1st half of this season. It's called sample size. The same holds true for playoff success. Sample size. We are more hopefuls rather than contenders. Good but by no means experienced.